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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Ill just take you to Bangladesh for a minute.先请大家观看一段有关孟加拉的视频。00:15Before I tell that story,we should ask ourselves the question:Why does poverty exist?在我开始演讲之前，我想请大家先思考一个问题。贫穷为什么会存在？00:57I mean,there is plenty of knowledge and scientificbreakthroughs.我是说，人类实现了许多知识和科技的突破。01:02We all liv
2、e in the same planet,but theres still a great deal ofpoverty in the world.我们生活在同一星球，但世界上仍存在许多贫穷的地方。01:07And I think-so I want to throw a perspective that I have,sothat we can assess this project,or any other project,for thatmatter,to see whether its contributing or-contributing topoverty or trying t
3、o alleviate it.我想先谈谈我的观点，然后看看我的项目或者其他项目，究竟是拉大 还是缩小了贫富差距。01:12Rich countries have been sending aid to poor countries forlast 60 years.60年来，富国一直为穷国提供援助。01:28And by and large,this has failed.总体来说，这些努力并未收到成效。01:33And you can see this book,written by someone who workedin the World Bank for 20 years,and h
4、e finds economicgrowth in this country to be elusive.大家可以看看这本书，作者曾为世界银行工作了20年。他发现，这个国家难以实现经济增长。01:36for a minute:一会儿 breakthroughs:突破 a great deal of:大量 assess:vt.评定；估价；对征税 contributing:adj.贡献的;起作用的/v.捐献(contribute的ing形式)alleviate:vt.减轻,缓和 by and large:大体上,总的来说 written by:由所写 elusive:adj.难懂的;易忘的;逃避的
5、;难捉摸的By and large,it did not work.总的来说，这些援助对经济增长并不奏效。01:46So the question is,why is that?问题是，为什么？01:49In my mind,there is something to learn from the history ofEurope.在我看来，我们可以从欧洲的历史得到启发。01:53I mean,even here,yesterday I was walking across the street,and they showed three bishops were executed 500 y
6、earsago,right across the street from here.我是说，即使在这里，昨天我过马路的地方，就是三位主教在500年前被处死的地方。就在街对面。01:58So my point is,theres a lot of struggle has gone in Europe,where citizens were empowered by technologies.我想说的是，在欧洲，人们经历过许多斗争，他们由于技术的进步而变得更有力量。02:08And they demanded authorities from-to come down fromtheir hig
7、h horses.他们要求至高的权威 走下神坛。02:15And in the end,theres better bargaining between theauthorities and citizens and democracies,capitalism-everything else flourished.最终，权威与公民之间的地位 发生了变化 民主、资本主义和一切其他的制度得到充分发展。02:21And so you can see,the real process of-and this is backedup by this 500-page book-that the aut
8、horities came downand citizens got up.所以大家可以看到这样一个过程，这本长达500页的书也支持这一结论，权威地位下降，而公民地位上升。02:30bishops:n.主教/象 executed:v.履行(execute的过去分词)/adj.已执行的;已生效的 empowered:adj.获得授权的;允许的/v.允许;授与权力(empower的过去式)authorities:n.当局,官方(authority的复数)in the end:终于,最后 bargaining:n.讨价还价;交易;交涉/v.讨价还价;交易(bargain的ing形式)democrac
9、ies:民主 flourished:n.兴旺;茂盛;挥舞;炫耀;华饰/vt.夸耀;挥舞/vi.繁荣,兴旺;茂盛;活跃;处于旺盛时期But if you look,if you have that perspective,then you can seewhat happened in the last 60 years.但是，如果你持这样一个观点，可以看看过去60年来发生的事件。02:42Aid actually did the opposite.援助所起的作用恰恰相反。02:48It empowered authorities.它使权威的地位得到巩固和加强。02:51And as a res
10、ult,marginalized citizens.而公民却因此被边缘化。02:53The authorities did not have the reason to make economicgrowth happen so that they could tax people and makemore money for to run their business.权威并没有理由为征收更多税赋 而推动经济发展，并聚集财富发展自己的商业。02:56Because they were getting it from abroad.因为他们能从海外得到资金援助。03:06And in fact
11、,if you see oil-rich countries,where citizens arenot yet empowered,the same thing goes.事实上，在那些石油资源国中，这些国家的人民缺乏自主权，情况也是如此。03:09TED演讲者：Iqbal Quadir|伊卡柏.卡迪尔演讲标题：The power of the mobile phone to end poverty|手机是战胜贫穷的利器内容概要：Iqbal Quadir is an advocate of business as a humanitarian tool.With GrameenPhone,h
12、e brought the first commercial telecom services to poor areas of Bangladesh.His latest projectwill help rural entrepreneurs build power plants.伊卡柏.卡迪尔(Iqbal Quadir)讲述了他童年在贫穷的孟加拉国以及之后在纽约作为银行家的经历。这些经历促使他筹建了一家手机运营商，连接孟加拉8000万农村人口，并成为自下而上发展的倡导者。Nigeria,Saudi Arabia,all sorts of countries.诸如尼日利亚、沙特阿拉伯都在这
13、些国家之列。03:16Because the aid and oil or mineral money acts the same way.因为援助、石油或矿产的作用相同。03:19It empowers authorities,without activating the citizens-their hands,legs,brains,what have you.它们强化权威，但并未激发公民的作用，包括他们的手脚，头脑和拥有的资源。03:24And if you agree with that,then I think the best way toimprove these countr
14、ies is to recognize that economicdevelopment is of the people,by the people,for the people.如果你们同意这一观点，我认为改善这些国家状况的最好方法，是认识到经济发展的本质是民有、民治和民享。03:32marginalized:使边缘化/忽略/排斥(marginalize的过去式和过去分词)not yet:还没有,还没 empowers:授权/使能够(empower的第三人称单数)activating:v.使活动(activate的ing形式)And that is the real network eff
15、ect.这才是真正的网络效应。03:44If citizens can network and make themselves more organizedand productive,so that their voices are heard,so then thingswould improve.如果公民能通过形成网络而更有组织、更具生产力从而能表达民声，情况将会得以改善。03:46And to contrast that,you can see the most importantinstitution in the world,the World Bank,is an organiz
16、ation ofthe government,by the government,for the governments.与之形成对比的是，作为世界上最为重要的机构，世界银行是政府组织，由政府运营、为政府谋利。03:54Just see the contrast.对比非常明显。04:06And that is the perspective I have,and then I can start mystory.这就是我的出发点，接下来讲一讲我的故事。04:08Of course,how would you empower citizens?如何才能赋予公民更多的主动权？04:13There
17、could be all sorts of technologies.And one is cellphones.我们可以利用各种各样的技术，手机就是其中之一。04:16Recently The Economist recognized this,but I stumbledupon the idea 12 years ago,and thats what Ive beenworking on.最近，经济学家发表文章，认识到了这一点，而我在12年前就偶然想到了这一点，并且一直以来致力于此。04:18So 12 years ago,I was trying to be an investment
18、 banker inNew York.12年前，我曾经试图成为纽约的一名投资银行家。04:32We had-quite a few our colleagues were connected by acomputer network.我和一些同事在计算机网络上相互连接。04:35And we got more productive because we didnt have toexchange floppy disks;we could update each other moreoften.由于不需要交换软盘，我们变得更有效率，相互交流也更为频繁。04:43empower:vt.授权,允许
19、;使能够 stumbled:绊倒/蹒跚 quite a few:不少,相当多 floppy:adj.松软的;叭嗒叭嗒响的;懒散的,邋遢的/n.软磁碟But one time it broke down.但有一次，网络崩溃了。04:54And it reminded me of a day in 1971.这使我想起1971年的一天。04:56There was a war going on in my country.那时，我的祖国正经历一场战争，05:00And my family moved out of a urban place,where we used tolive,to a re
20、mote rural area where it was safer.我们家从之前所住的城市 搬到了更为安全的偏远郊区。05:04And one time my mother asked me to get some medicine fora younger sibling.记得有一次，我母亲让我去为家中一个更小的孩子买药。05:11And I walked 10 miles or so,all morning,to get there,to themedicine man.我花了一上午的时间，走了大约10英里，才来到了卖药人的家。05:14And he wasnt there,so I w
21、alked all afternoon back.可那里没人，于是我又花了一下午的时间走回家。05:21So I had another unproductive day.这是毫无作为的一天。05:24So while I was sitting in a tall building in New York,I putthose two experiences together side by side,and basicallyconcluded that connectivity is productivity-whether its ina modern office or an und
22、erdeveloped village.所以，当我坐在纽约一幢高楼里的时候，我将这两次经历比较了一下，基本得出一个结论，那就是，连线就是效率，无论是在现代化的办公室还是在落后的村庄。05:26So naturally,I-the implication of that is that the telephoneis a weapon against poverty.所以，这很自然地意味着，电话是消除贫穷的武器。05:40sibling:n.兄弟姊妹;民族成员 unproductive:adj.非生产性的;徒劳的;不毛的;不生产的 side by side:并肩;一起;并排connectivit
23、y:n.数连通性 underdeveloped:adj.不发达的And if thats the case,then the question is how manytelephones did we have at that time?如果是这样，问题在于，当时我们有多少电话？05:48And it turns out,that there was one telephone in Bangladeshfor every 500 people.结果发现，当时在孟加拉，每500人仅有1部电话。05:54www.XiYuS锡育软件And all those phones were in the
24、few urban places.而且所有电话都集中在在少数几个城区。06:01The vast rural areas,where 100 million people lived,therewere no telephones.有1亿多人居住的广阔农村，根本没有电话。06:05So just imagine how many man-months or man-years arewasted,just like I wasted a day.可以想像，有多少人像我浪费了那一天那样，浪费了几个月，甚至几年。06:11If you just multiply by 100 million pe
25、ople,lets say losing oneday a month,whatever,and you see a vast amount ofresource wasted.如果每人每月浪费一天，乘以1亿人，可以看到大量的资源都被浪费了。06:17And after all,poor countries,like rich countries,one thingweve got equal,is their days are same length:24 hours.毕竟，穷国和富国至少在一项资源上是平等的 那就是一天24小时的时间。06:25So if you lose that pre
26、cious resource,where you aresomewhat equal to the richer countries,thats a huge waste.如果丧失了这一宝贵资源，而原本与富国之间并无差距，这将是巨大的浪费。06:31So I started looking for any evidence that,does connectivityreally increase productivity?所以，我开始寻找证据，检验连线是否能增加效率。06:40And I couldnt find much,really,but I found this graphprodu
27、ced by the ITU,which is the InternationalTelecommunication Union,based in Geneva.然而，事实上我并没有找到许多证据，但发现了总部设在日内瓦的国际电信联盟发布的这张图表。06:48man-years:劳经一人一年的工作量/人年They show an interesting thing.它说明了一个有趣的现象。06:58That you see,the horizontal axis is where you place yourcountry.大家看，横轴代表国家。07:01So the United States
28、 or the UK would be here,outside.比如美国、英国在这里，图表以外。07:05And so the impact of one new telephone,which is on thevertical axis,is very little.竖轴表示每增加一部新电话的作用，在这些国家非常小。07:08But if you come back to a poorer country,where the GNP percapita is,lets say,500 dollars,or 300 dollars,then the impactis huge:6,000
29、dollars.Or 5,000 dollars.但如果大家看欠发达国家，假设人均国民生产总值仅500美元或300美元，每增加一部新电话的作用非常明显：6000美元或5000美元。07:17The question was,how much did it cost to install a newtelephone in Bangladesh?问题是，在孟加拉安装一部新电话的成本是多少？07:30It turns out,2,000 dollars.结果发现，需要2000美元。07:35So if you spend 2,000 dollars,and lets say the telepho
30、nelasts 10 years.所以，如果花2000美元安装一部电话，假设可以用10年，07:39And if 5,000 dollars every year-so thats 50,000 dollars.每年增加5000美元的人均国民生产总值，10年就是50000美元。07:42So obviously this was a gadget to have.很明显，电话的作用不可忽视。07:45And of course,if the cost of installing a telephone is goingdown,because theres a digital revoluti
31、on going on,then itwould be even more dramatic.当然，如果随着数字革命的发展，安装一部电话的成本下降，其产生的作用将更大。07:49axis:n.轴；轴线；轴心国 capita:n.头数(尤指牲口)gadget:n.小玩意;小器具;小配件;诡计 installing:n.安装;插入;任命/v.安装;安置(install的ing形式);正式任命/adj.安装的And I knew a little economics by then-it says Adam Smithtaught us that specialization leads to pr
32、oductivity.当时，我对经济学也略知一二。亚当?史密斯告诉我们，分工能提高生产力。08:00But how would you specialize?但是如何进行分工呢？08:06Lets say Im a fisherman and a farmer.假如我是渔民和农场主，08:09And Chris is a fisherman farmer.Both are generalists.克里斯也是渔民和农场主。我们都可以做很多生意。08:13So the point is that we could only-only way we coulddepend on each other
33、,if we can connect with each other.我们之间只有通过相互联系，才能相互依靠。08:19And if we are neighbors,I could just walk over to his house.如果我们是邻居，我可以走到他家。08:26But then we are limiting our economic sphere to somethingvery small area.但即便如此，我们只能将生意局限在非常小的区域。08:31But in order to expand that,you need a river,or you need a
34、highway,or you need telephone lines.为了拓展生意，需要一条河，一条高速公路，或者电话。08:35But in any event,its connectivity that leads todependability.无论如何，相互连接才能相互依靠，08:40And that leads to specialization.从而实现专业分工，08:45That leads to productivity.继而提高生产力。08:47So the question was,I started looking at this issue,and goingback
35、 and forth between Bangladesh and New York.所以，我开始反复思考这一问题 并往返于孟加拉和纽约之间。08:49specialization:n.专门化;特殊化;特化作用 limiting:adj.限制的;限制性的/v.限制;限定(limit的现在分词)in any event:无论如何;不管怎样 dependability:n.可靠性;可信任 back and forth:反复地,来回地There were a lot of reasons people told me why we donthave enough telephones.人们告诉我 许
36、多没有足够电话的原因。08:55And one of them is the lacking buying power.其中之一是缺乏购买力。09:02Poor people apparently dont have the power to buy.显然，穷人买不起电话。09:04But the point is,if its a production tool,why do we have to关键是，如果电话能提高生产力，我们为什么要为此担心呢？09:07But the point is,if its a production tool,why do we have toworry ab
37、out that?此担心呢？09:07I mean,in America,people buy cars,and they put very littlemoney down.我的意思是，在美国，人们购买汽车，并不需要一次付清很多现款。09:10They get a car,and they go to work.他们买了汽车，开车上班，09:16The work pays them a salary;the salary allows them to payfor the car over time.并用上班挣来的薪水 分期支付汽车款。09:19The car pays for itself
38、.以车养车。09:25So if the telephone is a production tool,then we dont quitehave to worry about the purchasing power.所以，如果电话是生产工具，我们不需要过于担心购买力。09:26And of course,even if thats true,then what about initialbuying power?当然即便如此，最初的购买力从哪里来？09:32So then the question is,why cant we have some kind ofshared access
39、?那么，为什么不可以几人合用一部电话呢？09:37In the United States,we have-everybody needs a bankingservice,but very few of us are trying to buy a bank.在美国，每个人都需要银行服务，但很少有人想要买下一家银行。09:42lacking:adj.缺乏的;没有的;不足的/v.缺少;不足(lack的ing形式)So its-a bank tends to serve a whole community.所以，一家银行为许多客户服务。09:49So we could do that for t
40、elephones.对于电话，我们也可以采用相同的办法。09:53And also people told me that we have a lot of importantprimary needs to meet:food,clothing,shelter,whatever.此外，人们告诉我，他们有许多基本的需求需要满足，吃、穿、住等等。09:56But again,its very paternalistic.但是，这是一种非常家长主义的做法。10:04You should be raising income and let people decide whatthey want to
41、 do with their money.应该提高收入，让人们自己决定如何支配他们的财富。10:06But the real problem is the lack of other infrastructures.真正的问题在于缺乏其他一些基础设施。10:14See,you need some kind of infrastructure to bring a newthing.促使人们接纳新事物需要一些基础设施。10:17For instance,the Internet was booming in the U.S.比如，互联网在美国发展得如火如荼，10:22because there
42、were-there were people had computers.因为人们有电脑。10:25They had modems.他们有调制解调器。10:28They had telephone lines,so its very easy to bring in a newidea,like the Internet.他们有电话线，所以很容易接纳新概念，比如互联网。10:30But thats whats lacking in a poor country.不发达国家缺少的正是这种基础设施。10:34tends:vi.趋向,倾向;照料,照顾/vt.照料,照管 paternalistic:a
43、dj.家长式作风的 infrastructures:n.建基础设施;下部构造;基本建设(infrastructure的复数)booming:adj.兴旺的,繁荣的;大受欢迎的/v.兴旺(boom的ing形式);发出隆隆声 modems:n.调制解调器(modem的复数)/v.通过调制解调器向发送电子邮件(modem的三单形式)So for example,we didnt have ways to have credit checks,few banks to collect bills,et cetera.比如，人们无法查询信用记录，很少有银行提供代收费服务，诸如此类，不一而足。10:37B
44、ut thats why I noticed Grameen Bank,which is a bank forpoor people,and had 1,100 branches,12,000 employees,2.3million borrowers.但这也正是为什么我会注意到孟加拉乡村银行。这家银行为穷人服务，拥有大约1100家分行，12000名员工和230万贷款人。10:44And they had these branches.他们有这些分行。10:54I thought I could put cell towers and create a network.我想，可以通过基站将这
45、些分行连接成一个网络。10:56And anyway,to cut the time short-so I started-I first wentto them and said,You know,perhaps I could connect allyour branches and make you more efficient.长话多说。之后，我开始 到银行与他们谈谈我的想法。“你知道，也许我可以将你们所有的分行连接起来，使你们的工作更有效率。”11:01But you know,they have,after all,evolved in a countrywithout telep
46、hones,so they are decentralized.I mean,ofcourse there might be other good reasons,but this was oneof the reasons-they had to be.但是，要知道，他们毕竟在一个没有电话的国家里，所以实行分散管理。我想，当然有其他原因，但这一定是原因之一。11:11And so they were not that interested to connect all theirbranches,and then to be-and rock the boat.他们对于将所有分行连成网络的想
47、法并不感兴趣，只想安于现状。11:22So I started focusing.What is it that they really do?所以，我进一步思考这个问题。他们真正的业务是什么？11:28cetera:adv.其余,其他 borrowers:n.金融借款人(borrower的复数);剽窃者 decentralized:adj.分散的;分散化,分散式;分散管理的;去中心化/vt.使分散;使分权(decentralize的过去分词)rock the boat:捣乱;破坏良好的现状;使遇到危险So what happens is that somebody borrows money
48、 from thebank.通常，某人向银行贷款，11:32She typically buys a cow.The cow gives milk.买一头母牛，牛会产奶，11:35And she sells the milk to the villagers,and pays off the loan.于是，那人将牛奶卖给村民，还清贷款。11:39And this is a business for her,but its milk for everybody else.对这人来说这是一门生意，但为所有其他人提供了牛奶。11:43And suddenly I realized that a c
49、ell phone could be a cow.于是，我忽然意识到，手机也可以起到一头母牛的And suddenly I realized that a cell phone could be a cow.作用。11:48Because some way she could borrow 200 dollars from thebank,get a phone and have the phone for everybody.因为那人可以向银行贷款200美元，购买一部手机，然后将手机租给其他人使用。11:50And its a business for her.对这人来说，这是一门生意。11
50、:57So I wrote to the bank,and they thought for a while,and theysaid,Its a little crazy,but logical.于是，我写信给银行，他们想了想，说：“这主意有点疯狂，但不乏逻辑。12:00If you think it can be done,come and make it happen.如果你觉得可行，就过来实现它吧。”12:06So I quit my job;I went back to Bangladesh.于是，我辞去了工作，来到了孟加拉。12:10I created a company in A