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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Im going to talk to you about power in this 21st century.我想讨论的 是21世纪的权利。00:12And basically,what Id like to tell you is that power ischanging,and there are two types of changes基本上我想告诉大家的 是权利的变化,有两种变化00:16I want to discuss.是我想探讨的。00:24One is power transition,which is change of power among
2、ststates.一种是权利的转移,国家和国家之间的权利变化。00:26And there the simple version of the message is its movingfrom West to East.这是对权利转移的简单解读,即权利正从西方转移到东方。00:32The other is power diffusion,the way power is moving fromall states West or East to non-state actors.另一种是权利的分散,即权利的转移 是从西方和东方的各个国家 到非国家的范围。00:38Those two thin
3、gs are the huge shifts of power in our century.以上两种情况 是本世纪权利的 重要转移。00:48And I want to tell you about them each separately and thenhow they interact and why,in the end,there may be somegood news.我想分别说说这两种情况 和它们之间的相互影响以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。00:54When we talk about power transition,we often talk about therise
4、 of Asia.说到权利的转移,我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。01:03It really should be called the recovery or return of Asia.确切地说应该称作 亚洲的复兴或者亚洲的回归。01:10If we looked at the world in 1800,youd find that more thanhalf of the worlds people lived in Asia and they made morethan half the worlds product.回顾19世纪的 世界,你会发现世界上一半以上的人口 都居住在亚洲 而且
5、他们生产的产品占了世界总量的一半以上。01:14diffusion:n.扩散,传播;光漫射 separately:adv.分别地;分离地;个别地 in the end:终于,最后Now fast forward to 1900:half the worlds people-morethan half-still live in Asia,but theyre now making only afifth of the worlds product.现在我们来看20世纪,世界上一般的人口超过一半仍然在亚洲居住,但是他们的生产总值 进占全球的五分之一。01:26What happened?The
6、Industrial Revolution,which meant thatall of a sudden,Europe and America became the dominantcenter of the world.这是为什么呢？工业革命,也就是说突然之间,欧洲和美国 成为主导世界的中心。01:36What were going to see in the 21st century is Asia graduallyreturning to being more than half of the worlds populationand more than half of the wo
7、rlds product.而到了21世纪,我们看到的 是亚洲将重新回到 占世界一半以上人口 和生产总值的位置。01:46Thats important and its an important shift.这很重要,而且是一次重大的权利转移。01:59But let me tell you a little bit about the other shift that Imtalking about,which is power diffusion.但是接下来我要和你们探讨一下 刚才提到的另外一种转移,那就是权利分散。02:02To understand power diffusion put
8、 this in your mind:computing and communications costs have fallen athousandfold between 1970 and the beginning of thiscentury.要理解权利分散 就要明白一点:计算和交流的成本已经降到原来的千分之几 从1970年 到本世纪初。02:08Now thats a big abstract number.这个数字很大,很抽象,02:23But to make it more real,if the price of an automobile hadfallen as rapid
9、ly as the price of computing power,you couldbuy a car today for five dollars.但是具体来说,如果汽车价格 的降幅 和计算机的降幅一样,那么今天你只花五美元,就可以买辆车。02:25all of a sudden:突然地,出乎意料地 dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的/n.显性 thousandfold:adv.千倍地/adj.千倍的Now when the price of any technology declines thatdramatically,the barriers to entr
10、y go down.那么如果所有的技术价格 都以这个幅度下跌,获得这一技术的门槛就会降低;02:37Anybody can play in the game.人人都可以享有。02:45So in 1970,if you wanted to communicate from Oxford toJohannesburg to New Delhi to Brasilia and anywheresimultaneously,you could do it.从20世纪70年代开始,如果你想 从牛津到约翰内斯堡 或到新德里 或到巴西利亚 或是其他任何地方获得即时通讯,是可行的,02:47The tech
11、nology was there.因为技术已经发展到了这个阶段。03:02But to be able to do it,you had to be very rich-agovernment,a multinational corporation,maybe the但是要真正做到这一点,你需要很有钱才行 你要么是政府,要么是跨国公司,也可能是基督教堂不过你得及其有钱才行。03:04TED演讲者：Joseph Nye|约瑟夫.奈演讲标题：Joseph Nye on global power shifts|谈权力转移内容概要：The former assistant secretary of d
12、efense and former dean of Harvard.s KennedySchool of Government,Joseph Nye offers sharp insights into the way nations take and cedepower.历史学家和外交家约瑟夫.奈从长远的角度出发，阐述了中美之间的权力转移，以及经济、政治、以及“软”实力的全球转移。government,a multinational corporation,maybe theCatholic Church-but you had to be pretty wealthy.不过你得及其有钱才行
13、。03:04Now,anybody has that capacity,which previously wasrestricted by price just to a few actors.但是几天人人都能享有这些技术,以前人们受到价格的制约 只有少数人才能享有,03:16If they have the price of entry into an Internet cafe-the lasttime I looked,it was something like a pound an hour-and ifyou have Skype,its free.如果人们有足够的钱去网吧 我上次查
14、到的价格大概是每小时一磅左右 但是如果你用Skype,是免费的。03:25So capabilities that were once restricted are now available toeveryone.所以曾经 被限制的能力 现在人人都可以享有。03:34And what that means is not that the age of the State is over.这并不意味着 国家的时代结束了。03:40declines:vi.下降;衰退;拒绝(decline的第三人称单数)barriers:n.障碍;栅栏;篱笆墙(barrier的复数形式)simultaneousl
15、y:adv.同时地 multinational:adj.跨国公司的;多国的/n.跨国公司 Catholic:adj.天主教的;宽宏大量的/n.天主教徒;罗马天主教The State still matters.国家依然很重要。03:46But the stage is crowded.但是舞台是很拥挤的。03:48The States not alone.There are many,many actors.国家不可能单独存在。还有很多很多的角色。03:50Some of thats good:Oxfam,a great non-governmentalactor.其中有一些是好的角色。比如牛
16、津饥荒救济委员会（乐施会）就是一个很重要的非政府角色。03:53Some of its bad:Al Qaeda,another non-governmental actor.其中也有一些是不好的。基地组织,是另一个非政府角色。03:59But think of what it does to how we think in traditional termsand concepts.但是试想这些对我们 传统的思维方式和观念有哪些改变。04:04We think in terms of war and interstate war.我们过去考虑的是战争 和内战。04:09And you can
17、 think back to 1941 when the government ofJapan attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.大家可以想一想1941年,日本政府 日本政府袭击美国珍珠港。04:13Its worth noticing that a non-state actor attacking theUnited States in 2001 killed more Americans than thegovernment of Japan did in 1941.只得注意的是 在2001年,一个非政府的角色 袭击了美国 在这次袭击中
18、丧生的美国人超过了 1941年日本政府的行为。04:21You might think of that as the privatization of war.你可能会想 战争已经不再是国家行为。04:33So were seeing a great change in terms of diffusion ofpower.因此我们看到的是权力分散的 一个重大变化。04:37Now the problem is that were not thinking about it in veryinnovative ways.可问题是 我们对此的看法不够新。04:43non-governmental
19、:非政府的;非官方的 concepts:n.概念,观念;思想(concept复数形式)in terms of:依据;按照;在方面;以措词 interstate:adj.州际的;州与州之间的/n.(美)州际公路 innovative:adj.革新的，创新的So let me step back and ask:whats power?所以让我们再重新审视 并且想一想:什么是权利？04:49Power is simple the ability to affect others to get theoutcomes you want,and you can do it in three ways.
20、权利其实就是一种能力 能够影响他人 以达到你的目的,实现权利的方式有三种。04:53You can do it with threats of coercion,sticks,可以威胁他人,通过强迫棍棒,05:01you can do it with payments,carrots,可以买通他人 胡萝卜,05:05or you can do it by getting others to want what you want.或者通过让别人心甘情愿地 做你想要达成的结果。05:09And that ability to get others to want what you want,to
21、getthe outcomes you want without coercion or payment,is whatI call soft power.而让别人心甘情愿地做逆向要做的,来达到你的目的,而不是通过强迫或买通,就是我所说的软实力。05:13And that soft power has been much neglected and muchmisunderstood,and yet its tremendously important.而这种软实力很大程度上被人们所忽视 所误解了。然而软实力是极其重要地。05:23Indeed,if you can learn to use
22、more soft power,you can savea lot on carrots and sticks.事实上,如果你知道如何 运用软实力,你会节省很多地 胡萝卜和棍棒。05:31Traditionally,the way people thought about power wasprimarily in terms of military power.按照惯例,人们认为权利 基本就是军事力量。05:40step back:后退,退后;无意义 coercion:n.强制;强迫;高压政治;威压 sticks:n.棍;树枝;麻骨(stick复数形式)/v.用杆支撑;刺死;插入(stick
23、的第三人称单数)carrots:n.园艺胡萝卜;红萝卜(carrot的复数形式)misunderstood:adj.被误解的/v.误解,误会(misunderstand的过去式)tremendously:adv.非常地;可怕地;惊人地 Traditionally:adv.传统上;习惯上;传说上For example,the great Oxford historian who taught here atthis university,A.J.P.Taylor,defined a great power as acountry able to prevail in war.例如来自牛津的伟大的
24、历史学家 A.J.P.泰勒 对大国的定义是 能够打赢战争的国家。05:47www.XiYuS锡育软件But we need a new narrative if were to understand power inthe 21st century.但是我们需要一个新的阐述 来真正懂得21世纪地权利。05:59Its not just prevailing at war,though war still persists.权利不仅仅是赢得战争 尽管战争依旧存在。06:03Its not whose army wins;its also whose story wins.哪一个国家的军队赢了并不
25、重要;重要的是谁讲的故事能够赢得人心。06:08And we have to think much more in terms of narratives andwhose narrative is going to be effective.而且我们需要进一步考虑这个阐释 以及谁的阐释更加有效。06:13Now let me go back to the question of power transitionbetween states and whats happening there.现在我要回到 国家之间 权利转移 的问题 讲讲最新的动态。06:20the narratives th
26、at we use now tend to be the rise and fall ofthe great powers.我们现在用的阐释 大多是大国的 崛起和没落。06:30And the current narrative is all about the rise of China andthe decline of the United States.而近来这种阐述全都是 中国的崛起 和美国的没落06:36Indeed,with the 2008 financial crisis,many people said thiswas the beginning of the end of
27、 American power.确实,2008年发生的经济危机 会让很多人说这是美国领导力终结的开始。06:43historian:n.历史学家 narrative:n.叙述;故事;讲述/adj.叙事的,叙述的;叙事体的 prevailing:adj.流行的；一般的，最普通的；占优势的；盛行很广的/v.盛行，流行(prevail的现在分词形式)；获胜 at war:在交战状态中 persists:vi.存留,坚持;持续,固执/vt.坚持说,反复说 narratives:n.叙述,故事;叙述的手法(narrative复数)The tectonic plates of world politics
28、 were shifting.全球政治格局的板块 正在发生转变。06:49And president Medvedev of Russia,for example,pronouncedin 2008 this was the beginning of the end of United Statespower.例如俄罗斯的总统梅德韦杰夫,在2008年曾说过经济危机是美国领导力结束 的开端。06:54But in fact,this metaphor of decline is often very misleading.然而事实上,这种衰落的比喻 非常误导人。07:02If you look
29、at history,in recent history,youll see the cycles ofbelief in American decline come and go every 10 or 15 yearsor so.如果回顾历史,近代历史 你会发现这种认为 美国衰落的说法 每隔10年到20年左右就会出现。07:08In 1958,after the Soviets put up Sputnik,it was Thats theend of America.1958年,苏联发射人造卫星以后 人们就说“美国要衰落了。”07:19In 1973,with the oil embar
30、go and the closing of the goldwindow,that was the end of America.1973年的石油禁运 和黄金窗口的关闭,又有人说美国要衰落了。07:25In the 1980s,as America went through a transition in theReagan period,between the rust belt economy of themidwest to the Silicon Valley economy of California,that wasthe end of America.20世纪80年代,在里根就职
31、期间,美国经历了一次从美国中西部老工业基地 到加州的硅谷经济的转变,又有人在说美国要衰落了。07:32tectonic:adj.地质构造的;建筑的;地壳构造上的 shifting:n.计移位；狡猾/v.改变(shift的ing形式)/adj.移动的；狡诈的metaphor:n.暗喻,隐喻;比喻说法 misleading:adj.令人误解的;引入歧途的/v.给带错路;把引入歧途(mislead的ing形式)cycles:n.周期(cycle的复数);循环动作;圈数/v.循环;骑自行车(cycle的三单形式)Soviets:n.苏联人(soviet的复数);苏联政府Sputnik:n.人造卫星(前
32、苏联制造)embargo:vt.禁止出入港口;禁止或限制贸易;征用或扣押/n.禁令;禁止;封港令But in fact,what weve seen is none of those were true.但事实上,我们发现 所有这些谣言都不是真的。07:45Indeed,people were over-enthusiastic in the early 2000s,thinking America could do anything,which led us into somedisastrous foreign policy adventures,and now were back tod
33、ecline again.事实上,正是人们在21世纪初 过分乐观,认为美国无所不能,导致了我们作出了一些灾难性的 外交政策,现在又出现了美国衰落的声音。07:50The moral of this story is all these narratives about rise andfall and decline tell us a lot more about psychology thanthey do about reality.总之 所有这些关于崛起,倒退和衰落的阐述 讲的更多的是一种心理 而不是事实。08:03If we try to focus on the reality,t
34、hen what we need to focuson is whats really happening in terms of China and theUnited States.现在让我们只关注事实,那么我们就需要关注 当下在中国和美国 正在发生的事情。08:13Goldman Sachs has projected that China,the Chineseeconomy,will surpass that of the U.S.高盛预言 中国,中国经济 将会在2027年08:24by 2027.超过美国。08:32So weve got,what,17 more years to
35、 go or so before Chinasbigger.所以我们只剩下 在中国超过美国之前 我们只剩下17年左右。08:34Now someday,with a billion point three people gettingricher,they are going to be bigger than the United States.也许未来 等到这1.3亿人口富起来的时候,他们将超过美国。08:40But be very careful about these projections such as theGoldman Sachs projection as though t
36、hat gives you anaccurate picture of power transition in this century.但是不要轻易接受 高盛这些公司做出的预测。尽管这些预测能给你本世纪潜力转移的 精确画面。08:47disastrous:adj.灾难性的；损失惨重的；悲伤的 psychology:n.心理学;心理状态 projected:adj.投影的,投射/v.投射(project的过去分词);计划 surpass:vt.超越；胜过，优于；非所能办到或理解 projections:n.预测,推测(projection的复数形式);数测投影;发射,规划;突出部分 proje
37、ction:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测Let me mention three reasons why its too simple.让我来给出为什么这些预测过于简单的原因。08:57First of all,its a linear projection.第一,它是线性的预测。09:00You know,everything says,heres the growth rate of China,heres the growth rate of the U.S.,here it goes-straight line.种种迹象 这是中国的增长率,这是美国的增长率,请看直线09:03His
38、tory is not linear.然而历史不是一条直线。09:09There are often bumps along the road,accidents along theway.历史进程经常出现曲折和突发事件。09:11The second thing is that the Chinese economy passes the U.S.economy in,lets say,2030,which it may it,that will be ameasure of total economic size,but not of per capita income-wont tell
39、 you about the composition of the economy.第二 中国经济 如果说在2030年超过了美国经济,就算事实真的如此,也是按经济总量来衡量的,并非人均收入 并不能说明经济的组成。09:14China still has large areas of underdevelopment and percapita income is a better measure of the sophistication ofthe economy.中国的广大地区 还很落后。人均收入能够更好的衡量 经济的复杂性。09:31And that the Chinese wont c
40、atch up or pass the Americansuntil somewhere in the latter part,after 2050,of this century.在这之后,中国才有可能在人均收入 超过美国,那会是在本世纪,2050年以后。09:39The other point thats worth noticing is how one-dimensional this projection is.另外值得一提的是 这个预测的衡量标准 是多么的单一。09:47First of all:adv.首先 linear:adj.线的，线型的；直线的，线状的；长度的 bumps:
41、碰撞(bump的第三人称单数)/碰撞(bump的复数)capita:n.头数(尤指牲口)sophistication:n.复杂;诡辩;老于世故;有教养 one-dimensional:adj.肤浅的;单面的;幻想的You know,it looks at economic power measured by GDP.它看到是通过GDP,衡量的经济实力。09:54Doesnt tell you much about military power,doesnt tell youvery much about soft power.并不说明军事实力,也不能说明软实力。09:58Its all ver
42、y one-dimensional.它的衡量标准是单一的。10:03And also,when we think about the rise of Asia,or return ofAsia as I called it a little bit earlier,its worth rememberingAsias not one thing.而且说到亚洲的崛起,或者是亚洲的回归,就像我之前提到的,需要注意的是亚洲不是一个整体。10:05If youre sitting in Japan,or in New Delhi,or in Hanoi,yourview of the rise of
43、China is a little different than if youresitting in Beijing.对于日本,新德里,或者河内来说,对与中国的崛起和中国自己的看法是不同的。10:15Indeed,one of the advantages that the Americans will have interms of power in Asia is all those countries want anAmerican insurance policy against the rise of China.事实上,关于亚洲的势力 美国拥有的 一个优势 就是所有这些国家 都希
44、望得到美国政策的保护 来制衡中国。10:28Its as though Mexico and Canada were hostile neighbors tothe United States,which theyre not.就像墨西哥和加拿大 历史上是美国不很友好的邻邦,现在也是这样的。10:40So these simple projections of the Goldman Sachs type arenot telling us what we need to know about power transition.所以高盛作出的这些 简单的预测 并不能说明我们应该知道的 全力转移
45、。10:47But you might ask,well so what in any case?然而,你可能会说,无论如何,那又怎么样呢？10:54different than:不同于 in any case:无论如何Why does it matter?Who cares?为什么这一点很重要？谁会在乎？10:57Is this just a game that diplomats and academics play?这只是一场 外交家们和学术界的一场游戏吗？10:59The answer is it matters quite a lot.答案是这一点很重要。11:03Because,i
46、f you believe in decline and you get the answerswrong on this,the facts,not the myths,you may havepolicies which are very dangerous.因为,如果相信衰落 关于这个问题得到的答案是错误的,事实上,不是谣传,这样错误的答案是很危险的。11:06Let me give you an example from history.以下是历史上的例子。11:16The Peloponnesian War was the great conflict in which theGre
47、ek city state system tore itself apart two and a halfmillennia ago.伯罗奔尼萨战争 是希腊城邦体制的 很大的冲突 导致了两千伍佰年前 希腊的分崩离析。11:19What caused it?根源是什么？11:31Thucydides,the great historian of the the PeloponnesianWar,said it was the rise in the power of Athens and the fear itcreated in Sparta.修西得底斯,伯罗奔尼萨战争时期的伟大历史学家,说是
48、因为希腊人的崛起 和斯巴达克人对希腊人崛起的恐惧。11:33Notice both halves of that explanation.注意这前后这两部分的原因。11:42Many people argue that the 21st century is going to repeatthe 20th century,in which World War One,the greatconflagration in which the European state system tore itselfapart and destroyed its centrality in the worl
49、d,that that wascaused by the rise in the power of Germany and the fear itcreated in Britain.很多人认为 21世纪 将会重蹈20世纪的覆辙,第一次世界大战 的战火 使得整个欧洲的体制 分崩离析破坏了它在世界的中心地位,原因就是 德国的崛起和英国的恐慌。11:45diplomats:外交官 academics:n.学术水平;学术知识;专业学者 myths:神话/谬见 halves:n.一学期;两等份(half的复数形式)conflagration:n.大火;快速燃烧;突发;冲突 centrality:n.中
50、心;中央;向心性So there are people who are telling us this is going to be所以今天有些人告诉我们 今天这样得历史将会重演,为我们将会看到的 是本世纪历史得重演。So there are people who are telling us this is going to bereproduced today,that what were going to see is the samething now in this century.演,为我们将会看到的 是本世纪历史得重演。12:09No,I think thats wrong.不,