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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Tonight,I want to have a conversation about this incredibleglobal issue thats at the intersection of land use,food andenvironment,something we can all relate to,and what Ivebeen calling the other inconvenient truth.今晚,我想谈一个 令人震惊的全球议题 即土地利用、粮食和环境的关系 某些和每个人都息息相关的事物 我称之为“另一个棘手的事实”00:16But
2、first,I want to take you on a little journey.但首先我想带领大家进行一趟简短的旅程00:28Lets first visit our planet,but at night,and from space.先参观一下我们的星球,不过是在夜间 从外太空观看00:32This is what our planet looks like from outer space atnighttime,if you were to take a satellite and travel aroundthe planet.And the thing you would
3、 notice first,of course,ishow dominant the human presence on our planet is.这是从外太空观察地球夜间的景象 如果你搭乘人造卫星 绕行地球,你首先注意到的是 当然,人类这种生物 主宰地球的程度00:36We see cities,we see oil fields,you can even make out fishingfleets in the sea,that we are dominating much of our planet,and mostly through the use of energy that
4、we see here atnight.我们看见城市、油田 你甚至能辨识出海上的渔船队 我们主宰大部分地球 主要藉由能源的运用 如我们夜间所见的景象00:49But lets go back and drop it a little deeper and look duringthe daytime.但我们回头稍做深入研究 观察白昼的情形01:01intersection:n.交叉;十字路口;交集;交叉点 relate to:涉及,有关 inconvenient:adj.不便的;打扰的 nighttime:n.夜间/adj.夜间的;夜里发生的 dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的
5、,统治的/n.显性 make out:理解;辨认出;说明;填写;设法应付fleets:n.军舰队(fleet的复数)/v.掠过(fleet的第三人称单数形式)dominating:adj.主要的;独裁的;专横的/v.支配;统治(dominate的ing形式)What we see during the day is our landscapes.我们于白昼所见的是地表景观01:05This is part of the Amazon Basin,a place called Rond?nia inthe south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.这是亚
6、马逊盆地中一个叫朗多尼亚的地方 位于巴西亚马逊盆地中南部01:09If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,youre going to see a thin white line,which is a road that wasbuilt in the 1970s.如果你仔细观察右上角 将会看见一条白色细线 那是兴建于1970年代的道路01:16If we come back to the same place in 2001,what were goingto find is that these roads s
7、purt off more roads,and moreroads after that,at the end of which is a small clearing in therainforest where there are going to be a few cows.如果我们回顾2001年同地区的景观 将发现这些道路 四处延伸,然后延伸出更多道路 道路尽头是雨林中的小空地 豢养着一些牛01:25These cows are used for beef.Were going to eat these cows.这些牛将变成牛肉,进入人类腹中01:40And these cows a
8、re eaten basically in South America,in Braziland Argentina.Theyre not being shipped up here.基本上这些牛肉将运往南美 供巴西人和阿根廷人食用,不会运往这里01:43But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation issomething we notice a lot of around the tropics,especially inthis part of the world.但我们发现这种森林经砍伐后的鱼骨状图案 遍布热带地区 尤其是这片区域0
9、1:49landscapes:n.风景;风景地貌(landscape的复数)/v.从事庭园设计;美化(landscape的三单形式)Basin:n.水池;流域;盆地;盆right-hand:adj.得力的;右手的,用右手的 spurt:vi.冲刺;喷出;迸发/n.冲刺;喷射/vt.喷射;喷出 rainforest:n.(热带)雨林fishbone:n.鱼骨 deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐 tropics:n.热带地区If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,we can go to
10、 the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,here also in1975,and if you look really carefully,如果这趟世界之旅稍微往南前进 可抵达亚马逊盆地与玻利维亚交界处 这同样是1975年的景观,如果仔细观察01:56theres a thin white line through that kind of seam,andtheres a lone farmer out there in the middle of the primevaljungle.将会看见一条白色细线穿过一道类似细缝的地方一位孤独的农夫 伫立在原始丛林中02:
11、06Lets come back again a few years later,here in 2003,andwell see that that landscape actually looks a lot more likeIowa than it does like a rainforest.我们再回顾一下数年后2003年的景观 我们所见的景观事实上十分类似 爱荷华州,而非雨林02:13In fact,what youre seeing here are soybean fields.事实上你所见的是黄豆田02:24These soybeans are being shipped t
12、o Europe and to China asanimal feed,especially after the mad cow disease scare abouta decade ago,where we dont want to feed animals animalprotein anymore,because that can transmit disease.这些黄豆将运往欧洲和中国 作为动物的饲料,尤其是疯牛病爆发后 这是大约十年前的事,我们不想再喂动物 动物性蛋白质,因为这将导致疾病传播02:27TED演讲者：Jonathan Foley|Jonathan Foley演讲标题
13、：|另一个棘手的事实内容概要：Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society.His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet.粮食的迫切需求意味着农业已成为导致气候变迁、生物多样性丧失及环境破坏的最大因素。在 TEDxTC中，Jonathan Foley阐述为何我们亟需着手进行 Terraculture即全球耕作。（摄于TEDxTC）Instead,we want
14、 to feed them more vegetable proteins.相反地,我们希望以较多植物性蛋白质喂食动物02:40So soybeans have really exploded,showing how trade andglobalization are really responsible for the connections torainforests and the Amazon-an incredibly strange andinterconnected world that we have today.因此黄豆需求激增 显示贸易和全球化 确实与雨林及亚马逊盆地 息
15、息相关对我们来说十分陌生 且与世隔绝的地区02:42seam:n.缝;接缝/vt.缝合;接合;使留下伤痕/vi.裂开;产生裂缝 primeval:adj.原始的;初期的(等于primaeval)soybean:n.大豆;黄豆 soybeans:n.作物大豆(soybean的复数);作物黄豆 proteins:n.生化蛋白质(protein复数)exploded:adj.爆炸了的;分解的;被破除的/v.爆炸(explode的过去分词)globalization:n.全球化 rainforests:n.(热带)雨林 interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的/v.互相连接(interc
16、onnect的过去式)Well,again and again,what we find as we look around theworld in our little tour of the world is that landscape afterlandscape after landscape have been cleared and altered forgrowing food and other crops.好,我们一再发现 在环绕世界的旅程中 无数地表景观 遭受破坏,转变成粮食产地 及其他作物产地02:55So one of the questions weve been
17、asking is,how much ofthe world is used to grow food,and where is it exactly,andhow can we change that into the future,and what does itmean?因此我们常被问到的问题是 世上有多少土地被用于生产粮食？这些地方位于何处？未来将发生何种改变？这代表什么意义？03:08Well,our team has been looking at this on a global scale,using satellite data and ground-based data k
18、ind of to trackfarming on a global scale.好,我们的团队观察全球情况 利用人造卫星搜集的信息和地表数据 追踪全球农地规模03:18And this is what we found,and its startling.这是我们的发现,令人震惊不已03:26This map shows the presence of agriculture on planet Earth.这张地图显示农业 分布于地表的情形03:30The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,likewheat or soybean
19、s or corn or rice or whatever.绿色区域是种植作物的地方 例如小麦、黄豆、玉米或稻米等03:35Thats 16 million square kilometers worth of land.相当于1600万平方公里土地03:41If you put it all together in one place,itd be the size of SouthAmerica.如果将这些土地集中在同一处 大约相当于南美洲面积03:45again and again:adv.再三地,反复地 altered:v.改变(alter的过去分词)/adj.改变了的;蚀变的/n.为
20、参加短程高速汽车赛而改装的赛车 crops:n.农作物(crop的复数);收成;冶切头/v.种植(crop的三单形式);收割;修剪;产庄稼 ground-based:adj.陆基的;以地面为基础的The second area,in brown,is the worlds pastures andrangelands,where our animals live.第二片以咖啡色表示的区域是牧地 及放牧区,动物生活于此03:50That areas about 30 million square kilometers,or about anAfricas worth of land,a huge
21、 amount of land,and its thebest land,of course,is what you see.And whats left is,like,the middle of the Sahara Desert,or Siberia,or the middle of arain forest.这片区域大约3000万平方公里 或相当于非洲面积十分广大的土地,也是最肥沃的土地 如你们所见,其余部份为 撒哈拉沙漠、西伯利亚 或雨林深处03:55Were using a planets worth of land already.我们已使用了相当于整个地球的土地04:09If
22、we look at this carefully,we find its about 40 percent ofthe Earths land surface is devoted to agriculture,and its 60times larger than all the areas we complain about,oursuburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.如果我们仔细观察,将发现大约40%的 地表贡献于农业 比令我们 怨声载道的居住地大60倍 包括郊区和大多数人类居住的城市04:13Half of human
23、ity lives in cities today,but a 60-times-largerarea is used to grow food.目前世上有半数人口居住于城市 但生产粮食的土地比人类居住地大60倍04:26So this is an amazing kind of result,and it really shocked uswhen we looked at that.这是十分惊人的事实 令观察到这一点的我们震惊不已04:33So were using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,but also were using
24、 a lot of water.因此我们将十分广大的土地用于农业 但也因此消耗大量水源04:37pastures:牧草 devoted:adj.献身的;忠诚的/v.献身于;致力于(devote的过去分词)complain about:抱怨 suburban:adj.郊区的,城郊的;土气的;见闻不广的/n.郊区居民 sprawl:vi.蔓延;伸开手足躺;无计划地扩展/vt.懒散地伸开;使蔓生/n.蔓生;伸开手足躺卧姿势This is a photograph flying into Arizona,and when you lookat it,youre like,What are they g
25、rowing here?It turns outtheyre growing lettuce in the middle of the desert usingwater sprayed on top.这是亚利桑那州空照图 当你目睹这幅景象时,会想“他们在这里种什么？”事实上 他们在沙漠中种植莴苣 用喷洒方式供应水源04:43Now,the irony is,its probably sold in our supermarketshelves in the Twin Cities.讽刺的是,这些产品或许 正于双子城超市货架上贩售04:53But whats really interestin
26、g is,this waters got to come fromsome place,and it comes from here,the Colorado River inNorth America.但令人感趣的是,这些水源必定 来自某处来自此处 北美的科罗拉多河04:57Well,the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,this is just,you know,not a flood,not a drought,kind of an average day,好,这是1950年代科罗拉多河平日景象 如各位所见,没有洪水、没有干旱 这是它平日的
27、景象,如照片所示05:04you know,not a flood,not a drought,kind of an average day,it looks something like this.所示05:04But if we come back today,during a normal condition to theexact same location,this is whats left.但如果观察目前景观,这是在一般情况下 同一地点仅剩的水流05:12The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,ormaybe
28、 golf courses in Scottsdale,you take your pick.不同之处主要在于河水用来灌溉沙漠中的作物 或斯科茨代尔的高尔夫场,随你想象05:18Well,this is a lot of water,and again,were mining water andusing it to grow food,and today,if you travel down furtherdown the Colorado,it dries up completely and no longerflows into the ocean.好,这得消耗大量水源同样地,我们开采水
29、源 用于种植作物 如果现在朝科罗拉多河下游前进 它已完全干涸,不再流向海洋05:25lettuce:n.园艺生菜;莴苣;(美)纸币 sprayed:adj.喷雾的/v.喷射;散布(spray的过去式和过去分词)irony:n.讽刺；反语；具有讽刺意味的事/adj.铁的；似铁的 shelves:n.架子(shelf的复数)/v.装架(shelve的第三人称单数形式)drought:n.干旱;缺乏irrigating:v.进行喷灌(irrigate的ing形式)/n.灌溉 mining:n.矿业;采矿 dries:n.间歇出露区;干出(dry的复数形式)/v.变干燥;停奶(dry的第三人称单数)W
30、eve literally consumed an entire river in North America forirrigation.我们将北美整条河流消耗殆尽 仅为了灌溉作物05:36Well,thats not even the worst example in the world.好,这并非世上最糟的情况05:41This probably is:the Aral Sea.最糟的情况或许发生在咸海05:43Now,a lot you will remember this from your geographyclasses.在座大多数人或许记得地理课中曾经学过05:46This i
31、s in the former Soviet Union in between Kazakhstan andUzbekistan,one of the great inland seas of the world.它位于前苏联 介于哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克之间 是世上最大的内陆湖之一05:49But theres kind of a paradox here,because it looks like itssurrounded by desert.Why is this sea here?但其中有个吊诡处,因为它看起来 彷佛被沙漠包围,为何它会出现在此处？05:56The reason its
32、here is because,on the right-hand side,yousee two little rivers kind of coming down through the sand,feeding this basin with water.它出现在此处的原因是,在右侧 你可以看见两条小河 穿越沙漠,供应这片低洼处水源06:02www.XiYuS锡育软件Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains far tothe east,where snow melts,it travels down the river thro
33、ughthe desert,and forms the great Aral Sea.河川汇集东部远处山脉的融雪 积雪融化后流向河川 穿越沙漠,形成广大的咸海06:10Well,in the 1950s,the Soviets decided to divert that waterto irrigate the desert to grow cotton,believe it or not,inKazakhstan,to sell cotton to the international markets tobring foreign currency into the Soviet Unio
34、n.好,1950年代,苏联决定将河水改道 引入沙漠地带,种植棉花,信不信由你 引入哈萨克斯坦,将棉花贩卖到国际市场 替苏联赚取外汇06:18geography:n.地理;地形 paradox:n.悖论，反论；似非而是的论点；自相矛盾的人或事 draining:adj.排水的;滤水的/n.矿业排水;敷设排水渠道;倾浆/v.矿业排水;使枯竭;逐渐消失(drain的现在分词)snowmelt:n.水文融雪水 melts:n.冶熔体(melt的复数)/v.熔化(melt的第三人称单数形式)Soviets:n.苏联人(soviet的复数);苏联政府 divert:vt.转移;使欢娱;使转向/vi.转移
35、irrigate:vt.灌溉;冲洗;使清新/vi.灌溉;冲洗They really needed the money.他们亟需这些收入06:31Well,you can imagine what happens.You turn off the watersupply to the Aral Sea,whats going to happen?好,你可以想象会发生什么情况 截断咸海的水源会发生什么事？06:33Here it is in 1973,1986,1999,2004,and about 11 monthsago.这分别是1973年 1986年 1999年 2004年 和大约11个月前
36、的情形06:38Its pretty extraordinary.确实十分惊人06:53Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.现场许多听众住在中西部06:55Imagine that was Lake Superior.不妨将它想象成苏必利尔湖06:58Imagine that was Lake Huron.想象成休伦湖07:01Its an extraordinary change.这是十分惊人的改变07:04This is not only a change in water and where the shore
37、line is,this is a change in the fundamentals of the environment ofthis region.不仅是水量 或海岸线的改变而是环境本质上的改变 對这片区域來說07:06Lets start with this.这么说吧07:12The Soviet Union didnt really have a Sierra Club.苏联没有塞拉俱乐部（环保团体）07:14Lets put it that way.不妨以这个观点来看07:16So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea aint
38、pretty.因此你发现咸海底部不甚美观07:18Theres a lot of toxic waste,a lot of things that were dumpedthere that are now becoming airborne.存在许多毒性废弃物,许多物品 弃置于此,现在已逐渐分解到大气中07:21shoreline:n.海岸线;海岸线地带 fundamentals:n.基本面;基本原理(fundamental的复数)toxic:adj.有毒的；中毒的dumped:adj.废弃的;被甩了的/v.倾倒(dump的过去分词);猛地扔下 airborne:adj.航空运的;空气传播的
39、;风媒的One of those small islands that was remote and impossible toget to was a site of Soviet biological weapons testing.其中一个离岸甚远 难以抵达的小岛 曾经是苏联生化武器测试地点07:25You can walk there today.现在你可以步行到那里07:32Weather patterns have changed.气候形态已发生变化07:33Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only in the AralS
40、ea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.咸海独有的20种鱼类中,有19种 已在地球上消失踪影07:35This is an environmental disaster writ large.这是一场环境大浩劫07:41But lets bring it home.我们试着深入了解一下07:44This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago that hetook when he was in the Soviet Union a long,long time ago,showing t
41、he fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.这是几年前戈尔（美国前副总统）给我的一张照片他于苏联拍摄的景观 很久很久以前 显示搁浅于咸海中的渔船队07:45You see the canal they dug?你看见他们挖的水道吗？07:54They were so desperate to try to,kind of,float the boats intothe remaining pools of water,but they finally had to give upbecause the piers and the moorings simply coul
42、dnt keepup with the retreating shoreline.他们费尽心力,试着让船漂浮在 仅剩的湖水中,但他们最后不得不放弃 因为码头和停泊处的开凿 无法跟上海岸线倒退的速度07:56I dont know about you,but Im terrified that futurearchaeologists will dig this up and write stories about ourtime in history,and wonder,What were you thinking?我不知道你们的想法,但我担心未来 考古学家会挖出这些东西,将这个时代的情形
43、写入历史疑惑地想,“你们到底在想什么？”08:05writ:n.法令状;文书;法院命令 moorings:n.停系泊处;系泊设备(mooring的复数)keep up:保持;继续;不低落;不落后retreating:adj.再精制的;再处理的/v.撤退(retreat的ing形式);后退 archaeologists:n.古考古学家(archaeologist的复数)Well,thats the future we have to look forward to.好,这就是我们即将面临的未来08:13We already use about 50 percent of the Earths f
44、resh waterthats sustainable,and agriculture alone is 70 percent ofthat.我们已使用了地球上现有的 50%淡水 光是农业部分 就占用了 70%08:16So we use a lot of water,a lot of land for agriculture.因此我们在农业上消耗许多水源和土地08:23We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.我们也在农业上消耗许多大气08:26Usually when we think about the atmosphere,
45、we think aboutclimate change and greenhouse gases,and mostly aroundenergy,but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggestemitters of greenhouse gases too.当我们谈到大气时 通常会联想到气候变迁和温室气体 大多与能源有关 但事实上,农业亦是 温室气体最大来源之一08:30If you look at carbon dioxide from burning tropicalrainforest,or methane coming from
46、cows and rice,or nitrousoxide from too many fertilizers,it turns out agriculture is 30percent of the greenhouse gases going into the atmospherefrom human activity.如果考虑焚烧热带雨林 所产生的二氧化碳 或牛群和稻米所产生的甲烷 或大量肥料所产生的一氧化二氮 事实上,排放至大气层的温室气体 30%来自农业,以人类活动来说08:41Thats more than all our transportation.远大于所有交通工具08:57
47、look forward to:盼望,期待 sustainable:adj.可以忍受的；足可支撑的；养得起的；可持续的 emitters:n.发射器;排放者;发射源;物发射体(emitter的复数)dioxide:n.二氧化物 methane:n.有化甲烷;能源沼气 nitrous:adj.氮的;硝石的;含氮的oxide:n.化学氧化物 fertilizers:n.肥料肥料(fertilizer的复数形式);化肥;底肥Its more than all our electricity.远大于所有电力设施08:59Its more than all other manufacturing,in
48、fact.事实上远大于所有制造业的排放量09:00Its the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases of anyhuman activity in the world.这是最大的单一温室气体来源 以所有人类活动来说09:03And yet,we dont talk about it very much.然而我们很少提及这一点09:08So we have this incredible presence today of agriculturedominating our planet,whether its 40 percent of ou
49、r landsurface,70 percent of the water we use,30 percent of ourgreenhouse gas emissions.因此我们目前面临的惊人事实是 农业主宰我们的地球 无论是占用地表 40%的土地 消耗 70%的水源 产生 30%的温室气体排放量09:11Weve doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorusaround the world simply by using fertilizers,causing hugeproblems of water quality from rivers,
50、lakes,and even oceans,and its also the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss.我们使逸散到全球环境中的氮、磷量倍增 仅因为肥料的使用 导致河川、湖泊 甚至海洋的水质产生严重问题,这也是导致 生物多样性丧失的最大因素09:23So without a doubt,agriculture is the single most powerfulforce unleashed on this planet since the end of the ice age.No question.因此,毫无疑问地,农业是 影响