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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件About 10 years ago,I took on the task to teach globaldevelopment to Swedish undergraduate students.That wasafter having spent about 20 years together with Africaninstitutions studying hunger in Africa,so I was sort ofexpected to know a little about the world.00:15And I started in our me
2、dical university,Karolinska Institute,an undergraduate course called Global Health.But when youget that opportunity,you get a little nervous.I thought,thesestudents00:31coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get inSwedish college systems-so maybe they know everything00:43Im going to te
3、ach them about.So I did a pre-test when theycame.00:49And one of the questions from which I learnt a lot was thisone:Which country has the highest child mortality of thesefive pairs?00:53And I put them together,so that in each pair of country,onehas twice the child mortality of the other.And this me
4、ansthat its much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of thedata.01:00learnt:v.学习(learn的过去式和过去分词)mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运 uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠I wont put you at a test here,but its Turkey,which is highestthere,Poland,Russia,Pakistan and South Africa.01:14And these were the results of the Sw
5、edish students.I did it soI got the confidence interval,which is pretty narrow,and I gothappy,of course:a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.Thatmeans that01:21there was a place for a professor of international health-01:31(Laughter)and for my course.01:34But one late night,when I was compiling t
6、he report I reallyrealized my discovery.I have shown that Swedish topstudents know statistically significantly less about the worldthan the chimpanzees.01:36(Laughter)Because the chimpanzee would score half right if Igave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.Theywould be right half of the case
7、s.01:51But the students are not there.The problem for me was notignorance:it was preconceived ideas.02:00compiling:n.计编译/v.编辑;收集(compile的ing形式)statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上 significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地 chimpanzees:n.脊椎黑猩猩(chimpanzee的复数)chimpanzee:n.脊椎黑猩猩 ignorance:n.无知，愚昧；不知，不懂 preconceived:adj.预想的;(思
8、想或观点)事先形成的/v.预想(preconceive的过去式和过去分词)I did also an unethical study of the professors of theKarolinska Institute02:07(Laughter)02:11-that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,and they are onpar with the chimpanzee there.02:12(Laughter)This is where I realized that there was really a needto communica
9、te,because the data of whats happening inthe world and the child health of every country is very wellaware.02:16We did this software which displays it like this:every bubblehere is a country.02:29TED演讲者：Hans Rosling|汉斯罗斯林演讲标题：Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you.ve ever seen|用前所未有的好方法
10、诠释数字统计内容概要：In Hans Rosling.s hands,data sings.Global trends in health and economics come tovivid life.And the big picture of global developmentwith some surprisingly good newssnaps into sharp focus.你肯定没有看过这样的数据演示。如解说体育比赛实况一般的生动与紧张，统计大师汉斯罗斯林将颠覆所谓“发展中国家”这一理念。This country over here is China.This is Ind
11、ia.02:34The size of the bubble is the population,and on this axishere I put fertility rate.02:40Because my students,what they said when they looked uponthe world,and I asked them,What do you really think aboutthe world?02:46Well,I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin,mainly.02:53unethical:a
12、dj.不道德的;缺乏职业道德的 par:n.标准;票面价值;平均数量/adj.标准的;票面的 bubble:n.气泡,泡沫,泡状物;透明圆形罩,圆形顶/vi.沸腾,冒泡;发出气泡声/vt.使冒泡;滔滔不绝地说 axis:n.轴；轴线；轴心国 fertility:n.多产;肥沃;农经生产力;丰饶(Laughter)And they said,The world is still we and them.And we is Western world and them is Third World.02:57And what do you mean with Western world?I sai
13、d.03:04Well,thats long life and small family,and Third World isshort life and large family.03:07So this is what I could display here.I put fertility rate here:number of children per woman,one,two,three,four,up toabout eight children per woman.03:12We have very good data since 1962-1960 about-on thes
14、ize of families in all countries.03:2203:28And 1962,there was really a group of countries here.03:35that was industrialized countries,and they had small familiesand long lives.03:38And these were the developing countries:they had largefamilies and they had relatively short lives.03:43Now what has ha
15、ppened since 1962?We want to see thechange.03:48Are the students right?Is it still two types of countries?03:52Or have these developing countries got smaller families andthey live here?03:56industrialized:adj.工业化的/v.使工业化;将组成产业(industrialize的过去分词)Or have they got longer lives and live up there?03:59L
16、ets see.We stopped the world then.This is all U.N.statisticsthat have been available.Here we go.Can you see there?04:01Its China there,moving against better health there,improving there.04:07All the green Latin American countries are moving towardssmaller families.04:10Your yellow ones here are the
17、Arabic countries,and they getlarger families,but they-no,longer life,but not largerfamilies.04:13The Africans are the green down here.They still remain here.04:20This is India.Indonesias moving on pretty fast.04:23(Laughter)And in the 80s here,you have Bangladesh stillamong the African countries the
18、re.04:26But now,Bangladesh-its a miracle that happens in the80s:the imams start to promote family planning.04:30They move up into that corner.And in 90s,we have theterrible HIV epidemic that takes down the life expectancy ofthe African countries and all the rest of them move up intothe corner,where
19、we have long lives and small family,and wehave a completely new world.04:36statistics:n.统计;统计学;统计统计资料 imams:n.伊玛目(清真寺内率领穆斯林做礼拜的人,imam的复数)move up:提升,上升;向前移动(Applause)Let me make a comparison directly between theUnited States of America and Vietnam.04:521964:America had small families and long life;Vi
20、etnam hadlarge families and short lives.And this is what happens:thedata during the war indicate that even with all the death,05:10there was an improvement of life expectancy.By the end ofthe year,the family planning started in Vietnam and theywent for smaller families.05:25And the United States up
21、there is getting for longer life,keeping family size.And in the 80s now,they give upcommunist planning and they go for market economy,05:31and it moves faster even than social life.And today,we havein Vietnam the same life expectancy and the same family sizehere in Vietnam,2003,as in United States,1
22、974,by the endof the war.05:40I think we all-if we dont look in the data-weunderestimate the tremendous change in Asia,which was insocial change before we saw the economical change.05:56communist:n.共产党员;共产主义者/adj.共产主义的 underestimate:vt.低估;看轻/n.低估 tremendous:adj.极大的，巨大的；惊人的；极好的www.XiYuS锡育软件Lets move
23、over to another way here in which we coulddisplay the distribution in the world of the income.This is theworld distribution of income of people.06:08One dollar,10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.06:20Theres no gap between rich and poor any longer.This is amyth.06:25Theres a little hump here.But there
24、 are people all the way.06:29And if we look where the income ends up-the income-this is 100 percent the worlds annual income.And therichest 20 percent,they take out of that about 74 percent.And the poorest 20 percent,06:34they take about two percent.And this shows that theconcept of developing count
25、ries is extremely doubtful.Wethink about aid,like these people here giving aid to thesepeople here.But in the middle,we have most the worldpopulation,and they have now 24 percent of the income.06:51We heard it in other forms.And who are these?07:09Where are the different countries?I can show you Afr
26、ica.07:13hump:n.驼峰;驼背;圆形隆起物/vi.隆起;弓起;努力;急速行进/vt.使隆起;使烦恼 take about:领游览;带某人出入娱乐场所:This is Africa.10 percent the world population,most inpoverty.07:17This is OECD.The rich country.The country club of the U.N.07:22And they are over here on this side.Quite an overlapbetween Africa and OECD.07:27And this
27、 is Latin America.It has everything on this Earth,fromthe poorest to the richest,in Latin America.07:32And on top of that,we can put East Europe,we can put EastAsia,and we put South Asia.And how did it look like if we goback in time,to about 1970?Then there was more of a hump.07:38And we have most w
28、ho lived in absolute poverty were Asians.07:53The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.And if Inow let the world move forward,you will see that whilepopulation increase,there are hundreds of millions in Asiagetting out of poverty and some others getting into poverty,and this is the pattern w
29、e have today.07:57And the best projection from the World Bank is that this willhappen,and we will not have a divided world.Well havemost people in the middle.08:13overlap:n.重叠;重复/vi.部分重叠;部分的同时发生/vt.与重叠;与同时发生 projection:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测Of course its a logarithmic scale here,but our concept ofeconomy
30、is growth with percent.We look upon it as apossibility of percentile increase.If I change this,and I take08:21GDP per capita instead of family income,and I turn theseindividual data into regional data of gross domestic product,and I take the regions down here,the size of the bubble isstill the popul
31、ation.08:34And you have the OECD there,and you have sub-SaharanAfrica there,and we take off the Arab states there,comingboth from Africa and from Asia,and we put them separately,08:48and we can expand this axis,and I can give it a new08:58and we can expand this axis,and I can give it a newdimension
32、here,by adding the social values there,childsurvival.Now I have money on that axis,and I have the possibility ofchildren to survive there.09:06In some countries,99.7 percent of children survive to fiveyears of age;others,only 70.And here it seems there is a gapbetween OECD,Latin America,East Europe,
33、East Asia,09:11logarithmic:adj.对数的 percentile:adj.百分率的;按百等分排列的/n.百分位 capita:n.头数(尤指牲口)regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的 separately:adv.分别地;分离地;个别地 dimension:n.方面;数维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸/adj.规格的Arab states,South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.09:23The linearity is very strong between child survival andmoney.09:27Bu
34、t let me split sub-Saharan Africa.Health is there and betterhealth is up there.09:32I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into itscountries.09:40And when it burst,the size of his country bubble is the size ofthe population.09:45Sierra Leone down there.Mauritius is up there.Mauritius wasth
35、e first country to get away with trade barriers,and theycould sell their sugar.09:50They could sell their textiles on equal terms as the people inEurope and North America.09:58Theres a huge difference between Africa.And Ghana is herein the middle.10:03In Sierra Leone,humanitarian aid.10:07Here in Ug
36、anda,development aid.Here,time to invest,there,you can go for a holiday.Its a tremendous variation withinAfrica which we rarely often make-that its equaleverything.10:10linearity:n.线性;线性度;直线性 Leone:n.利昂(塞拉利昂货币单位)get away with:侥幸成功,侥幸逃脱 barriers:n.障碍;栅栏;篱笆墙(barrier的复数形式)textiles:n.纺织品;纺纺织业;纺织面料;纺织品类(
37、textile的复数)humanitarian:adj.人道主义的;博爱的;基督凡人论的/n.人道主义者;基督凡人论者I can split South Asia here.Indias the big bubble in themiddle.10:23But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.10:27I can split Arab states.How are they?Same climate,sameculture,same religion.Huge difference.Even betweenneighbor
38、s.10:31Yemen,civil war.United Arab Emirate,money which wasquite equally and well used.10:39Not as the myth is.And that includes all the children of theforeign workers who are in the country.10:44Data is often better than you think.Many people say data isbad.10:51There is an uncertainty margin,but we
39、 can see the differencehere:Cambodia,Singapore.The differences are much biggerthan the weakness of the data.East Europe:10:56Soviet economy for a long time,but they come out after tenyears very,very differently.And there is Latin America.11:04Today,we dont have to go to Cuba to find a healthy countr
40、yin Latin America.11:13Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within somefew years from now.11:17civil war:内战 Emirate:n.酋长国And here we have high-income countries in the OECD.11:22And we get the whole pattern here of the world,which ismore or less like this.And if we look at it,how it look
41、s-theworld,in 1960,it starts to move.1960.11:25This is Mao Tse-tung.He brought health to China.And thenhe died.11:40And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,11:43And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,and brought them into the mainstream again.And we have seen how count
42、ries move in different directionslike this,so its sort of difficult to get an example countrywhich shows the pattern of the world.11:48I would like to bring you back to about here at 1960.12:01I would like to compare South Korea,which is this one,withBrazil,which is this one.The label went away for
43、me here.And I would like to compare Uganda,which is there.And Ican run it forward,like this.12:07And you can see how South Korea is making a very,very fastadvancement,whereas Brazil is much slower.12:27more or less:或多或少 mainstream:n.主流 advancement:n.前进,进步;提升And if we move back again,here,and we put
44、on trails onthem,like this,you can see again that the speed ofdevelopment is very,very different,and the countries aremoving more or less12:39in the same rate as money and health,but it seems you canmove much faster if you are healthy first than if you arewealthy first.12:55And to show that,you can
45、put on the way of United ArabEmirate.13:04They came from here,a mineral country.They cached all theoil,they got all the money,but health cannot be bought atthe supermarket.13:08You have to invest in health.You have to get kids intoschooling.13:15You have to train health staff.You have to educate the
46、population.13:19And Sheikh Sayed did that in a fairly good way.13:22And in spite of falling oil prices,he brought this country uphere.13:25trails:n.山径;踪迹(trail的复数);游径/vt.拖尾(trail的第三人称单数)/vi.拖曳(trail的第三人称单数)cached:v.贮藏起来;隐藏起来(cache的过去分词形式)/adj.高速缓冲存储器存储的 schooling:n.学校教育;学费/v.教育(school的ing形式);培养 Shei
47、kh:n.族长;阿拉伯酋长(等于sheik)Sayed:n.赛义德(男子名)in spite of:尽管;不管,不顾So weve got a much more mainstream appearance of theworld,where all countries tend to use their money betterthan they used in the past.Now,this is,more or less,if youlook at the average data of the countries.They are like this.13:29Now thats
48、dangerous,to use average data,because there issuch a lot of difference within countries.So if I go and lookhere,we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was1960.If I split Uganda,theres quite a difference withinUganda.These are the quintiles of Uganda.13:47The richest 20 percent of Ugandans
49、 are there.14:09The poorest are down there.If I split South Africa,its like this.14:12If I go down and look at Niger,where there was such aterrible famine,lastly,its like this.The 20 percent poorest ofNiger is out here,and the 20 percent richest of South Africais there,and yet we tend to discuss on
50、what solutions thereshould be in Africa.14:16Everything in this world exists in Africa.And you cant discussuniversal access to HIV medicine for that quintile up herewith the same strategy as down here.The improvement ofthe world14:34must be highly contextualized,and its not relevant to haveit on reg