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20、1010101010100001010101010001010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100101010001011110010010001010010010001010100000101111010110100Baobao Zhang&Allan DafoeCenter for the Governance of AIFuture of Humanity InstituteUniversity of OxfordJanuary 2019Artificial Intellig
21、ence:American Attitudes and Trends?January 2019?1Executive summary31.1Select results.31.2Reading notes.42General attitudes toward AI52.1More Americans support than oppose developing AI.52.2Support for developing AI is greater among those who are wealthy,educated,male,or have experiencewith technolog
22、y.52.3An overwhelming majority of Americans think that AI and robots should be carefully managed.102.4Harmful consequences of AI in the context of other global risks.112.5Americans understanding of key technology terms.143Public opinion on AI governance173.1Americans consider many AI governance chal
23、lenges to be important;prioritize data privacy and preventingAI-enhanced cyber attacks,surveillance,and digital manipulation.173.2Americans who are younger,who have CS or engineering degrees express less concern about AI governancechallenges.203.3Americans place the most trust in the U.S.military an
24、d universities to build AI;trust tech companies andnon-governmental organizations more than the government to manage the technology.204AI policy and U.S.-China relations264.1Americans underestimate the U.S.and Chinas AI research and development.264.2Communicating the dangers of a U.S.-China arms rac
25、e requires explaining policy trade-offs.264.3Americans see the potential for U.S.-China cooperation on some AI governance challenges.285Trend across time:attitudes toward workplace automation315.1Americans do not think that labor market disruptions will increase with time.315.2Extending the historic
26、al time trend.316High-level machine intelligence346.1The public predicts a 54%likelihood of high-level machine intelligence within 10 years.346.2Americans express mixed support for developing high-level machine intelligence.366.3High-income Americans,men,and those with tech experience express greate
27、r support for high-level ma-chine intelligence.366.4The public expects high-level machine intelligence to be more harmful than good.37AAppendix A:Methodology42BAppendix B:Topline questionnaire44CAppendix C:Additional data analysis results88About us108References1091?Baobao ZhangResearch Affiliate,Cen
28、ter for the Governance of AI,Future of Humanity Institute,University of OxfordPhD Candidate,Department of Political Science,Yale UniversityAllan DafoeDirector,Center for the Governance of AI,Future of Humanity Institute,University of OxfordAssociate Professor and Senior Research Fellow in the Intern
29、ational Politics of AI,University of Oxford?For useful feedback we would like to thank:Miles Brundage,Jack Clark,Kanta Dihal,Jeffrey Ding,Carrick Flynn,BenGarfinkel,Rose Hadshar,Tim Hwang,Katelynn Kyker,Jade Leung,Luke Muehlhauser,Cullen OKeefe,Michael Page,William Rathje,Carl Shulman,Brian Tse,Remc
30、o Zwetsloot,and the YouGov Team(Marissa Shih and Sam Luks).Inparticular,we are grateful for Markus Anderljungs insightful suggestions and detailed editing.Copy editor:Steven Van TassellCover design:Laura PomariusWeb design:Baobao ZhangResearch assistants:Will Marks and Catherine Peng?The research wa
31、s funded by the Ethics and Governance of Artificial Intelligence Fund and Good Ventures.?Baobao Zhang+1(813)368-9992Email:surveysgovernance.aiWebsite:www.governance.aiWe invite suggestions for questions and partnership opportunities for future survey waves.?Zhang,Baobao and Allan Dafoe.“Artificial I
32、ntelligence:American Attitudes and Trends.”Oxford,UK:Center for theGovernance of AI,Future of Humanity Institute,University of Oxford,2019.?Advances in artificial intelligence(AI)1could impact nearly all aspects of society:the labor market,transportation,health-care,education,and national security.A
33、Is effects may be profoundly positive,but the technology entails risks and disrup-tions that warrant attention.While technologists and policymakers have begun to discuss AI and applications of machinelearning more frequently,public opinion has not shaped much of these conversations.In the U.S.,publi
34、c sentiments haveshaped many policy debates,including those about immigration,free trade,international conflicts,and climate changemitigation.As in these other policy domains,we expect the public to become more influential over time.It is thus vital tohave a better understanding of how the public th
35、inks about AI and the governance of AI.Such understanding is essentialto crafting informed policy and identifying opportunities to educate the public about AIs character,benefits,and risks.Inthisreport,wepresenttheresultsfromanextensivelookattheAmericanpublicsattitudestowardAIandAIgovernance.Asthest
36、udyofthepublicopiniontowardAIisrelativelynew,weaimedforbreadthoverdepth,withourquestionstouchingon:workplace automation;attitudes regarding international cooperation;the publics trust in various actors to developand regulate AI;views about the importance and likely impact of different AI governance
37、challenges;and historical andcross-national trends in public opinion regarding AI.Our results provide preliminary insights into the character of U.S.public opinion regarding AI.However,our findings raise more questions than they answer;they are more suggestive thanconclusive.Accordingly,we recommend
38、 cautionin interpreting the results;we confine ourselves to primarily reportingthe results.More work is needed to gain a deeper understanding of public opinion toward AI.Supported by a grant from the Ethics and Governance of AI Fund,we intend to conduct more extensive and intensivesurveys in the com
39、ing years,including of residents in Europe,China,and other countries.We welcome collaborators,espe-cially experts on particular policy domains,on future surveys.Survey inquiries can be emailed to surveysgovernance.ai.This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey conducted
40、by the Center for the Governanceof AI,housed at the Future of Humanity Institute,University of Oxford,using the survey firm YouGov.The survey wasconducted between June 6 and 14,2018,with a total of 2,000 American adults(18+)completing the survey.The analysisof this survey was pre-registered on the O
41、pen Science Framework.Appendix A provides further details regarding the datacollection and analysis process.?Below we highlight some results from our survey2:Americans express mixed support for the development of AI.After reading a short explanation,a substantial minor-ity(41%)somewhat support or st
42、rongly support the development of AI,while a smaller minority(22%)somewhator strongly opposes it.Demographic characteristics account for substantial variation in support for developing AI.Substantially more sup-port for developing AI is expressed by college graduates(57%)than those with high school
43、or less education(29%);by those with larger reported household incomes,such as those earning over$100,000 annually(59%),than thoseearning less than$30,000(33%);by those with computer science or programming experience(58%)than thosewithout(31%);by men(47%)than women(35%).These differences are not eas
44、ily explained away by othercharacteristics(they are robust to our multiple regression).The overwhelming majority of Americans(82%)believe that robots and/or AI should be carefully managed.Thisfigure is comparable to with survey results from EU respondents.Americans consider all of the thirteen AI go
45、vernance challenges presented in the survey to be important for govern-ments and technology companies to manage carefully.The governance challenges perceived to be the most likelyto impact people around the world within the next decadeandrated the highest in issue importance were3:1.Preventing AI-as
46、sisted surveillance from violating privacy and civil liberties1We define AI as machine systems capable of sophisticated(intelligent)information processing.For other definitions,see Footnote 2 in Dafoe(2018).2These results are presented roughly in the order in which questions were presented to respon
47、dents.3Giving equal weight to the likelihood and the rated importance of the challenge.?2.Preventing AI from being used to spread fake and harmful content online3.Preventing AI cyber attacks against governments,companies,organizations,and individuals4.Protecting data privacy We also asked the above
48、question,but focused on the likelihood of the governance challenge impacting solely Amer-icans(rather than people around the world).Americans perceive that all of the governance challenges presented,except for protecting data privacy and ensuring that autonomous vehicles are safe,are slightly more l
49、ikely to impactpeople around the world than to impact Americans within the next 10 years.Americans have discernibly different levels of trust in various organizations to develop and manage4AI for thebest interests of the public.Broadly,the public puts the most trust in university researchers(50%repo
50、rting“afair amount of confidence”or“a great deal of confidence”)and the U.S.military(49%);followed by scientificorganizations,the Partnership on AI,technology companies(excluding Facebook),and intelligence organizations;followed by U.S.federal or state governments,and the UN;followed by Facebook.Ame