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1、July,2001COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALSLogistics Services Industry Environment&Trend Analysis-COSCO Comments and A.T.Kearney RemarksThecontentsofthisdocumentwerepreparedbyA.T.Kearneyandmaynotbeused,alteredordisclosedtootherparties,withoutthewrittenpermissionofA.T.Kearney.Theinformationcontainedinthisdo
2、cumenthasbeenobtainedfromexternalsourceswhichA.T.Kearneybelievesarereliable.However,A.T.Kearneycanmakenorepresentationastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationorprojectionsderivedtherefrom.8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/2Table of ContentsnExecutive Summary1.Market Size&Growth
3、GlobalChina2.Service DemandGlobal TrendsChina Trends3.Competitive EnvironmentGlobalChina4.Regulatory Environment5.Information TechnologynAppendix8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/3Executive Summary8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/4A.T.Kearneys definition of the log
4、istics services industryStructuring and managing,on behalf of cargo owners,solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain(i.e.transportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc.)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/5The logistics service industry represent a tremendous
5、 growth opportunity,both globally and in ChinaMarket CharacteristicConclusionCustomersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions,requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilitiesIncreasingdemandforglobalreachandcapabilitiesfuelsconsolidationaslargefullserviceprovidersa
6、repositioningthemselvesforsuccessChinasentryintoWTOisexpectedtohavetwomainimplications-thelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly,andcompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseStrongITcapabilitiesisbecomingacorecapabilityoflogisticsservicesprovidersandiscriticaltobuildingalogisticsservicesbusinessMarket Siz
7、e&GrowthService DemandCompetitive EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:A.T.KearneyThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$190Bnin2000.TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35%overthenextfiveyears8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOu
8、tlook-final/6The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competitionIndustry Scenario 2006RapidincreaseinM&AactivitiesKeyalliancesformedwithinthenext2-3yearsRapidexpansionofglobalplayersofferingsophisticatedend-to-endso
9、lution,includinglogistics,transportationandITImplementationofe-commerceinitiativesandincreasingdependenceonITnetworkMergers,Acquisitions and AlliancesGlobal CompetitorsTechnologyThelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidlyCompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseWTO EntrySource:A.T.Kearney8Point/FinalVersio
10、n/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/71.Market Size&Growth8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/8The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$190 Bn in 2000nThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$190Bnin2000nThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedane
11、stimatedUS$3.8Trillionin2000,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateof2.3%overthenext5yearsnTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39%overthenextfiveyearsnThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementnThegrowthoft
12、hegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshipperspropensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthnCustomerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChina8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/9The China
13、market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five yearsnTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenext5yearsnThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinanThetransportationandrelatedexpenditu
14、resareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs-indicatingamajorimprovementopportunitynInCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghainInInlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei/YangtzeriverregionnGrowthinthelogisticsservic
15、esindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogisticsFavorablemacroeconomicoutlookPublicpolicyandspendingIncreasinginterestinoutsourcingforlogisticsneedsGrowingITandE-business8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/10Market Size&Growth
16、-Global8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/11The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn in 2000Source:Chinainfobank,CSFB,A.T.KearneyGlobal Transportation and Logistics Market Size(2000)Transportationandrelatedactivitieshandledbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailer
17、sthemselves(e.g.privatefleet,privatewarehousing)Discretesetsoftransportationandrelatedservicesoutsourcedbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(e.g.publicwarehousingetc.)Combinationof“transportationandrelatedservices”provisionedby3rdpartylogisticsserviceprovidersUS$3,800 BnOutsourcedUS$190 BnGlobal tr
18、ansportation and related expendituresGlobal outsourced transportation and related servicesGlobal logistics outsourcing market8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/12US$BnThe transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in 2000,and is expected to gr
19、ow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 yearsNote:(1)AsiaincludesJapan,HongKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysisTransportation and Related Expenditures by Region(2000)Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function(2000)US$BnTotal=US$3,837 BnOthers
20、:-1.4%Asia(1):2.2%Europe:2.6%North America:4.0%3,4243,8374,389CAGR=2.3%CAGR=2.8%Warehousing$304BnTransport$2,204BnOthers$55BnShipper-Related$20BnInventory$1,102BnAdmin$152BnCAGR 2000-20068Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/13The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach
21、 US$31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five yearsNote:AsiaincludesChina,Japan,HonkKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysisLogistics Outsourcing Market in Asia-Gross Revenue(US$Bn)CAGR(99-01)=38%CAGR(01-06)=39%8Point/FinalVersion/Lo
22、gisticsIndustryOutlook-final/14The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport managementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogisticServicesPurchaseOrderManagementLogisticsManagement30%47%48%85%20%40%39%76%23%2%5%16%ofrespondentsoutsourcing199
23、8%ofrespondentsplanedoutsourcing200313%8%Outsourcing by FunctionResourcerequire-mentsComplexityNote:Thepercentagemaynotaddupto100%duetoroundingSource:BasedonseveralA.T.Kearneystudies,including:-Worldwidestudycomprising280participants(automotive19%,electronics25%,retail27%,chemicals29%)-Europeanstudy
24、comprising500participants(retail26%,food&beverage26%,commodities22%,machinery12%,automotive7%,electronics&high-tech4%)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/15Outsourcing of non-core business activitiesOrganic growth of transportation marketsIncreasedcomplexityofglobalsupplychainsRecogni
25、tionbymanyshippersthatsupplychainstrategymaybeakeycompetitiveadvantageWillingnesstooutsourcewhenlogisticsnotseenascorecompetencyDevelopmentofsuperiorlogisticscapabilitybyafew3PLsGrowthindemandfortransportationservicesexpandswithinternationaltradegrowthGlobalizationofmanyindustriesmeansgoodsneedtomov
26、eoverlongerdistancesatfasterspeedswithhigherreliabilityGrowth in Logistics ServicesSource:UBSWarburg,IDCGrowth DriversDetails12 The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth8Point/
27、FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/16Consumer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in ChinaNote:1.Sizeofcirclerelativetosegmentsizein20002.AnalysisisindicativeonlySource:A.T.KearneyfieldinterviewsandresearchHighLowGrowth(2001-
28、2006)RemarksHighlymarket-oriented,needquickresponsetoconsumerfeedbackManufacturershavetotoimproveoperationefficiencycontinuouslyduetointensecompetitionRelativelyhighproductvalueandlesspricesensitiveHighrequirementfortimingandreliabilityoflinersHighgrossmarginindustry,productioncostandlogisticsaccoun
29、tforlesspercentageofsalesPrefertimelyfeedbackfromdestinationports,i.e.tradeconsultingservicesAutomotivesuppliesinvolveover30,000parts,whichneedconsolidatingsupplierstohandlelogisticsIntensecompetitiondrivescompaniestoreducecost,currentinefficiencyinself-handlingleadscompaniestoconsideroutsourcingser
30、vicesactivelyHighvalueproducts,notverypricesensitive,butsometimesdecisionsaremadeoverseasPackingrequirementinvolvestechnicaldifficulties,unwillingtooutsourcelogisticsservicesHighprofitindustry,notverypricesensitiveHighqualityrequirementfordry,nosmell,noleakingcontainers,hencecontainerizedinfactoryCl
31、earanceofcigarettesneedstobedonebyprofessionalI/EcompaniesormanufacturesLargeandspecialshape,thereforethewaytoputthemintocontainerscanimpactthenumberofcontainerstobeused,whichdirectlyrelatedtocost-usuallydonein-houseCostsensitive,firmsusuallychooselessbusyseasontogetcheaperpricesFrozenproductsandfre
32、shproductsneedtobehandledfastwithcareOtherproductsarelow-valueandneednospecialservicesLowvalueproducts,highlypricesensitiveLowerqualityrequirement,usuallycontainerizedatportsConsumer ElectronicsApparelAutomotiveMachineryTobacco&LiquorFurniturePrimary GoodsChemicals&MaterialsIndustryLowHighConsumer C
33、onsumer ElectronicsElectronicsA ApparelpparelAutomotiveAutomotiveOutsourcing PropensityTobacco,Tobacco,LiquorLiquorPrimaryPrimaryGGoodsoodsOpportunity Assessment by IndustryChemicals Chemicals&Materials&MaterialsFurnitureFurnitureMMachineryachineryAdd market and trends analysis by industry8Point/Fin
34、alVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/17Market Size&Growth-China8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/18The China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 yearsLogistics Outsourcing Market -Gross Revenue(2000,US$Bn)Note:Asiain
35、cludesChina,Japan,HongKong,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyEstimatesCAGR=35%190230.61China Logistics Service Market(US$,Bn)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/19The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaCharacteristic
36、sEmergingdemandforoutsourcedlogisticsservicesLowvalueaddedservicessuchastransportandwarehousingarethemajortypeofservicesoutsourcedTraditionalin-housebehaviourbeingimpactedFastgrowthoflogisticsuserbaseandhigherrequirementforbroaderservicesLargenumberofservicesproviderscompetingforcustomersandhumanres
37、ourcesMosthighvalueaddedservicesarefreeandprovidedassellingpointsLogisticsoutsourcingbecomescommonpracticeandanimportantleverforcompetitionConsolidatedservicemarketwithafewestablishedmarketleadersLogisticspenetrateinsupplychainandreplacetraditionalbusinessmodelsGloballogisticsintegratorsprovideone-s
38、topsolutionworldwideSpecializationandclosecooperationamonggloballogisticsserviceprovidersOptimizedallocationandintegrationofresourcesalongthesupplychainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalizationWorld Leading(US)China TodaySource:A.T.Kearney8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/20Wareh
39、ousing and DistributionTruckingRail FreightAlthoughHeavilyUsed,RailwayFreightHasLongTransitTimesandServiceReliabilityIsPoorRailwayContainersAreNotCompatibleWithShippingCompanyContainersAirlineCustoms BrokerageCourierLimitedPresenceofForeignFirmsAsJVE.G.DHLSinotransRegionalSegregationinOperationLogis
40、tics Center and Freight ForwardingShippingThedomesticwarehousingmarketiscurrentlysmallandover-suppliedwithbasicwarehousesprovidingvirtuallynovalue-addedservicesSomeconsolidationjuststartedamongthelargewarehousingcompaniesRivertransportationhasdeclinedMostvesselsarecharacterizedbylowspeedandhighenerg
41、ycostsTruckingcompaniesareonlyallowedtooperateinrestrictedregionsGovernmenthasestablished15FreeTradeZonesandsomelogisticscentersaresetupthereInlandtransportationishandledbydomesticfreightforwarderwhoisusuallysub-contractedbytheinternationalfreightforwarderSevendomesticairlinesdominateregionaloperati
42、onsDesignatedforeigncarriersaregivenamaximumentitlementof50tonnesperweekManycustomsclearingbrokeragefirmsandconsiderableconfusionaboutrolesCustomsclearingprocedurestookatleast-1daypreviouslybutexpectedtobeshortenedto1hourThe logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in Chin
43、a(continued)Source:A.T.KearneyAnalysisChina Logistics Services8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/21Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunityTotal Transportation and
44、Related Expenditures and%of GDP(2000)Note:(1)VAS:Value-added-services(2)Includingpackaging,admin,informationservices,ect.Source:BowersoxandCalantone,CSFB,IMF1997study;Chinainfobank;A.T.KearneyAnalysisUS$BnChina Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function(2000)Total=US$248 BnUS$Bn(1
45、)(2)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/22Demand GrowthIn Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and ShanghaiHighLowHebei,Beijing,Tianjin4BeijingistheNo.1aircargocenterinChina.Inaddition,Beijingshi-techindustry,whichneedsalotofairtransportati
46、on,isdevelopingveryfastOver80%ofthevolumethroughTianjinportareagriculturalproducts,furniture,metalhardwareandrawmaterials,allbeinglowvalueproducts.Inaddition,mostshippersareinpoorfinancialconditionsandareverypricesensitiveShandong(Qingdao)4Qingdaohasseveralfamouslocalcompanies,suchasHaier,HiSense,Au
47、kmaandQingdaoBeer.TheyaremorequalityorientedandlesspricesensitiveFrozenproductsaccountfor15-20%ofthevolume.Qualityrequirementsforfrozenproductsareveryhighintermsoftimingandhandlingcare.Hence,frozenproductsshipperstendtobelesspricesensitiveandmorequalityconcernedFootwearandgarmentsaccountforsignifica
48、ntportion.SomelargecustomerssuchasPaylessShoes(No.1customerofCOSCOinvolume)requiresaccurateshippingtimeandfullrangeofsophisticated3PLservicesfromP/Omanagement,tradeconsultingtospacebooking,warehousingandtransportationProvinceLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Coastal ChinaGuangdongDemand Size5Re
49、marksMajorexportsareprocessingoflowervalue-addedproductsnospecialrequirementforlogisticsquality;Roadtransportationisconvenient,oftencontainerizedinfactorytoreducecostlessneedforwarehousing/consolidationElectronicsindustryisboominginDongguan,whichhassomeleadingcompanieslikeHuaweipotentiallargeprofita
50、blecustomersStrongWeakShanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)5Shanghaiisthefastgrowingeconomic/financialcenterinChina,whichhassomemajorMNCssuchasSGM,Acer,Philips,etc.Theyarematuredcustomersoflogisticsservicesandlesspricesensitive.Ontheotherhand,togetthedealsfromthemusuallyneedstoinvolvehighlevelnegociationLargec