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1、Chapter 06DECISION MAKING:THE ESSENCE OFTHE MANAGERSJOB6-6-1 116-Learning ObjectivesYou should learn to:1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process2,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations3,Describe the rational decision maker4,Contrast the perfectly rational and bounded
2、rational approaches to decision making5,Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making process6-6-2 226-Learning Objectives(cont.)You should learn to:6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them7,Differentiate the decision con
3、ditions of certainty,risk,and uncertainty8,Describe the different decision-making styles6-6-3 336-Decisionschoices from two or more alternativesall organizational members make decisionsDecision-Making Processa comprehensive,8-step processStep 1-Identifying a Problemproblem-discrepancy between an exi
4、sting and a desired state of affairsmust be such that it exerts pressure to actmanager is unlikely to characterize a situation as a problem unless s/he has necessary resources to act管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题，如果他们不具有采取行动的必要资源1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process6-6-4 446-The Decision-Making Proce
5、ssProblemIdentification“My salespeopleneed new computers”Identification of Decision CriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreen typeReliabilityScreen sizeAllocation ofWeights to CriteriaReliability 10Screen size 8Warranty 5Weight 5Price 4Screen type 3Development of AlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNEC
6、SonyToshibaImplementationof an AlternativeGatewayEvaluationof DecisionEffectivenessAnalysis ofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelection of anAlternativeAcerCompaqGateway HPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-6-5 5 Prentice Hall,200256-Decision-Making Process(cont.)Step 2-Identifying Dec
7、ision Criteriadecision criteria-whats relevant in making a decisionStep 3-Allocating Weights to the Criteriamust weight the criteria to give them appropriate priority in the decisionStep 4-Developing Alternativeslist the viable 可行的alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating themSt
8、ep 5-Analyzing Alternativeseach alternative is evaluated against the criteriaDecision Making(cont.)6-6-6 666-Assessed Values of Notebook Computer Alternatives Against Decision Criteria 6-6-7 776-Evaluation of Laptop Computer Alternatives Against Criteria and Weights6-6-8 886-Decision Making(cont.)De
9、cision-Making Process(cont.)Step 6-Selecting an Alternativechoosing the best alternative from among those consideredStep 7-Implementing the Alternativeimplementation-conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to itparticipation in decision-making process inclines peo
10、ple to support the decisiondecision may fail if it is not implemented properlyStep 8-Evaluating Decision Effectivenessdetermine whether the problem is resolved6-6-9 996-2,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations6-6-1010106-3,Describe the rational decision makingl Rational Decisio
11、n Makingdecisions are consistent前后一致的,value-maximizing choices within specified constraintsmanagers assumed to make rational decisionsAssumptions of Rationality-decision maker would:be objective and logicalcarefully define a problemhave a clear and specific goalselect the alternative that maximizes
12、the likelihood of achieving the goalmake decision in the firms best economic interestsmanagerial decision making seldom meets all the tests6-6-1111116-Assumptions Of RationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblem isclear andunambiguousSingle,well-defined goalis to be achievedAll alternativesand consequenc
13、esare knownPreferencesare clearPreferences偏好偏好are constantand stableNo time or costconstraints existFinal choicewill maximizepayoff6-6-1212126-4,Contrast the perfectly rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision makingBounded Rationalitybehave rationally within the parameters参数 of a simpl
14、ified decision-making process that is limited by an individuals ability to process informationsatisfice满意-accept solutions that are“good enough”Is a common error committed in the DM process?escalation of commitment-increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wr
15、ongrefusal to admit that the initial decision may have been flawed6-6-1313136-5,Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making processRole of Intuitionintuitive decision making-subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgmentdoes not rely on
16、a systematic or thorough analysis of the problemgenerally complements a rational analysis6-6-1414146-What Is Intuition?Decisions basedon experienceDecisions basedon feelings andemotionsDecisions basedon ethical valuesor cultureDecisions basedon subconsciousdataDecisions basedon skills,knowledge,or t
17、rainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-based decisionsValues orethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive认认知的知的-baseddecisions6-6-1515156-6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them Types of Problems and Decis
18、ionsWell-Structured Problems-straightforward,familiar,and easily definedProgrammed Decisions-used to address structured problemsminimize the need for managers to use discretionfacilitate organizational efficiencyprocedure-series of interrelated sequential steps顺序的步骤used to respond to a structured pr
19、oblemrule-explicit 清楚的 statement of what to do or not to dopolicy-guidelines or parameters for decision making6-6-1616166-6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve themTypes of Problems and Decisions(cont.)Poorly-Structured Problems-new,unusu
20、al problems for which information is ambiguous or incompleteNonprogrammed Decisions-used to address poorly-structured problemsproduce a custom-made responsemore frequent among higher-level managersfew decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed 6-6-1717176-Types Of Probl
21、ems,Types Of Decisions,And Level In The OrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevel inOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredType ofProblem6-6-1818186-7,Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty,risk,and uncertaintyDecision-Making ConditionsCertainty-outcome of ever
22、y alternative is knownidealistic rather than realisticRisk-able to estimate the probability of outcomes stemming from each alternativeexpected value-the conditional return from each possible outcomemultiply expected revenue from each outcome by the probability of each outcome6-6-1919196-Expected Val
23、ue for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift6-6-2020206-Prentice Hall,2002Decision TreesDecision Decision pointpoint Outcome Outcome pointpointBranch of Branch of solutionsolutionprobabilityValue ofValue of loss and profit loss and profitExpected Value=Value of loss and profit*Expected Value=Va
24、lue of loss and profit*probabilityprobability216-Prentice Hall,2002exampleP125P125Rent 20,000sq.ftRent 20,000sq.ftRent 12,000sq.ftRent 12,000sq.ftstrong070strong070weak030weak030strong070strong070weak030weak030$320,000$320,000$50,000$50,000$240,000$240,000$130,000$130,000Expected value 320*070+50*03
25、0=239Expected value 240*070+130*030=207226-Prentice Hall,2002例例:某公司计划开发一种新产品某公司计划开发一种新产品,设计了豪华型和设计了豪华型和普及型两个型号普及型两个型号:个个型号:豪华型豪华型:成功盈利800万元，成功的概率为60%,失败亏损300万元.失败的概率为40%;普及型普及型:成功盈利600万元.成功的概率为70%.失败亏损 30万元.失败的概率为30%。236-Prentice Hall,2002决策方案 自然状态及概率 支付值 期望值豪华型普及型成功060失败040成功070失败030800-300600-3080
26、0*060+（-300）*040=360600*070+（-30）*030=411246-Decision-Making Conditions(cont.)Uncertainty-not certain about outcomes and unable to estimate probabilitiespsychological orientation of decision makermaximax choice-optimisticmaximizing the maximum possible payoff最大最大选择maximin choice-pessimistic maximizi
27、ng the minimum possible payoff最大最小选择minimax-minimize the maximum“regret”最小化其最大遗憾6-6-2525256-Payoff Matrix收益矩阵6-6-2626266-Regret Matrix(遗憾矩阵)6-6-2727276-8,Describe the different decision-making stylesDecision-Making Styles决策风格two dimensions define the approach to decision makingway of thinking-differ
28、s from rational to intuitivetolerance for ambiguity模糊承受力模糊承受力-a high need for consistency and order in making decision so that ambiguity is minimized.define four decision-making stylesDirective-fast,efficient,and logicalAnalytic-careful and able to adapt or cope with new situationsConceptual-able to
29、 find creative solutionsBehavioral-seek acceptance of decisions6-6-2828286-Decision-Making StylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWay of ThinkingConceptualHighLowTolerance for Ambiguity6-6-2929296-What are Advantages&Disadvantages in Group Decision Making?Advantages-diverse employees:prov
30、ide fresh perspectivesoffer differing interpretations of problem definitionincrease the likelihood of creative and unique solutionsDisadvantages-diverse employees:require more time to reach a decisionmay have problems of communicationmay create a more complex,confusing,and ambiguous decision-making
31、processmay have difficulty in reaching agreement6-6-3030306-Overview Of Managerial Decision MakingDecision-MakingProcessTypes of Problems and Decisions Well-structured-programmed Poorly structured-nonprogrammedDecision-Making Conditions Certainty Risk UncertaintyDecision Maker Style Directive Analytic Conceptual BehavioralDecision-Making Approach Rationality Bounded Rationality Intuition Decision Choose best alternative -maximizing -satisficing Implementing Evaluating6-6-3131316-Prentice Hall,2002演讲完毕，谢谢观看！