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1、Shi et al./J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A(Appl Phys&Eng)2014 15(6):454-464 454 Emission inventory and trends of NOx for China,20002020*Yun SHI1,2,Yin-feng XIA1,2,Bi-hong LU1,2,Nan LIU1,Lei ZHANG1,2,Su-jing LI1,Wei LI1,2 (1Key Laboratory of Biomass Chemical Engineering of Ministry of Education,Institute of In
2、dustrial Ecology and Environment,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China)(2Institute of Environmental Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)E-mail:;w_ Received Nov.20,2013;Revision accepted Apr.22,2014;Crosschecked May 21,2014 Abstract:The rapid growth of NOx emissions in China is
3、mainly due to intensive fossil fuel consumption.In order to control NOx emissions,a multiyear NOx emission inventory was established by a bottom-up approach for the period 20002010.The results showed that NOx emissions increased by 2.1 times from 11.81 million tons(Mt)in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010.We
4、found that NOx emissions had exceeded SO2 emissions in 2009 by comparison with their emission trends.We also found that the unbalanced NOx emissions in Eastern China and Western China are mainly due to the different gross regional product and industrial structure.Accounting for 70%of total energy co
5、nsumption in China,coal is the largest NOx emission source among all the fossil fuels.In addition,the increased use of diesel and gasoline has spurred the increase of NOx emissions from the transportation sector.Man-ufacturing,electricity production,and transportation together composed about 90%of t
6、he national NOx emissions.Meanwhile,energy consumption and NOx emissions in China are predicted to be 3908.5 Mt standard coal equivalent(SCE)and 19.7 Mt in 2020 with this scenario analysis,respectively.To achieve a desired NOx reduction target,China should take strict measures to control NOx emissio
7、ns,such as improvement in reduction technology,promulgation of new emission standards,and joint control by various Chinese provinces.Key words:NOx,Emission inventory,Scenario prediction,Energy consumption,China doi:10.1631/jzus.A1300379 Document code:A CLC number:X511 1 Introduction Anthropogenic ni
8、trogen oxides,mainly from the consumption of fossil fuels,have a series of compli-cated influences on tropospheric chemistry,leading to phenomena such as summer photochemical smog(Dimitriades,1972;Rubio et al.,2002),the increase in urban and tropospheric ozone levels(Volz and Kley,1988;Melkonyan and
9、 Wagner,2013),acid deposition(Galloway,1995;Sickles and Shadwick,2007;Matsumoto et al.,2011),and the formation of nitrate aerosol(Kim et al.,2012).These are major concerns for ambient air quality and have broad im-pact on human health(Weschler,2006).Due to the rapid growth of the economy between 200
10、0 and 2010,China became the second largest economy in the world and experienced a rapid increase of energy consumption,which directly spurred the increase of NOx emissions.Consequently,China is the largest NOx emission country in Asia contributing 41%57%of Asian NOx emissions(Streets and Waldhoff,20
11、00;Ohara et al.,2007;Klimont et al.,2009;Zhang et al.,2009),and has been suffering from severe environ-mental pollution and public health problems(Zhang Q.Y.et al.,2007;Kan et al.,2012).To control NOx emissions,a 10%cut of NOx emissions by 2015 has been listed as an obligatory target in the 12th Fiv
12、e-Year Plan(FYP,20112015)of China(MEP,2011),on the basis of conditions that exist in 2010.Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A(Applied Physics&Engineering)ISSN 1673-565X(Print);ISSN 1862-1775(Online) E-mail: Corresponding author*Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Chi
13、na(No.21276233),and the Postdoctoral Science Preferential Funding of Zhejiang Province,China(No.BSH1301019)Zhejiang University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 Shi et al./J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A(Appl Phys&Eng)2014 15(6):454-464 455To assess the impacts of NOx emissions on the troposphere and
14、 to develop practical strategies for NOx mitigation,detailed knowledge of emission loads,spatial environment and temporal distribution are required.Although several emission inventories for China have been established over the past decade(Streets and Waldhoff,2000;Hao et al.,2002;Ohara et al.,2007;Z
15、hang Q.et al.,2007;Cao et al.,2011;Saikawa et al.,2011),they are either out of date or just cover a short period.In this work,we carried out a multiyear NOx emission inventory by bottom-up ap-proaches in China during the period 20002010,which described NOx emission variation,and we analyzed the cont
16、ributions of NOx emissions by dif-ferent fossil fuels,provinces,and economic sectors.The NOx emission trends over the period 20112020 are predicted by using scenario analysis approaches,and then some suggestions on sustainable develop-ment and NOx emission control are proposed.2 Analysis methods and
17、 data sources 2.1 Bottom-up method The NOx emissions estimated by bottom-up methods in this research only come from fossil fuel consumption from different economic sectors in China,including coal,coke,crude oil,gasoline,ker-osene,diesel,residual oil,and natural gas.Gschwandtner et al.(1986)described
18、 the concept of the bottom-up method that we applied here.Our es-timate of NOx emissions for China was developed with the widely used equations as given below(Hao et al.,2002;Streets et al.,2006;Klimont et al.,2009;Zhang et al.,2009):,TyiyiEE (2-1),iyijyjEE (2-2)ef,ijyijkyjkmyijkmykmEAX (2-3)efef(1)
19、,jkmyjkjkmyR (2-4)where T represents the national NOx emissions of China,y represents the year,i represents the province,j represents the economic sector,k represents the fuel type,m represents the emission reduction technology type,E is Chinas NOx emissions calculated as NO2,A is the activity level
20、s,such as fuel consumption,ef is the emission factor weighted as NO2,R is the removal efficiency of the emission reduction technology,and X is the fraction of fuel for a sector j that is consumed by a specific technology m.2.2 NOx emission factors of China As China has promulgated a series of improv
21、ed national emission standards for coal-fired power plants,industrial boilers,and vehicles,the NOx emission factors in China varied over the period 20002010.By selecting the appropriate emission factors,we multiplied the uncontrolled emission factors by removal efficiency,which is described in Eq.(2
22、-4).The removal efficiency was valued as 20%40%from 2000 to 2010 with an annual average growth rate,based on Hao et al.(2002)and the Na-tional Development and Reform Commission of China(NDRC,2013).Emission factors for different economic sectors and fuel types are derived from a wide range of sources
23、 as summarized in Table 1.Table 1 NOx emission factors*(kg NO2/t)Fuel type NOx emissions Industry Electricity Transportation Domestic use Others Coal 2.387.50 4.0011.80 7.50 1.192.24 3.75 Coke 9.00 9.00 2.25 4.50 Crude oil 3.357.26 2.1010.60 5.09 1.70 3.05 Gasoline 16.70 2.1016.70 15.0058.20 16.70 1
24、6.70 Kerosene 7.46 21.20 27.40 2.49 4.48 Diesel 9.62 2.108.54 13.2458.20 3.21 5.77 Residual oil 5.84 2.1010.06 27.4054.10 1.95 3.50 Natural gas*20.8527.14 17.2755.67 20.85 14.62 14.62*These emission factors were summarized from(Hao et al.,2002;Streets et al.,2003;Ohara et al.,2007;Klimont et al.,200
25、9;Zhao et al.,2010;Wang et al.,2011);*Emission factors are in kg NO2/t,except for values of natural gas,which are in 104 kg NO2/m3 Shi et al./J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A(Appl Phys&Eng)2014 15(6):454-464 4562.3 Activity levels of China and analysis uncertainty The scope of the inventory includes all the ad
26、-ministrative regions of China,except Hong Kong,Macau,and Taiwan,due to the lack of available data.Fossil fuel consumption data from each economic sector(including manufacturing,electricity,trans-portation,construction,domestic use,and others)and each province in the period 20002010 was obtained fro
27、m the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBS,20002012),and the China Energy Statistical Year-book(CESY)(DESNBS,20002010).The accuracy of NOx emission estimates mainly depend on activity levels,source categories and emission factors.Due to the difficulty in data collection on energy consump-tion
28、of small boilers,and emission factors in the manufacturing sectors,such as cement production,uncertainties may be introduced into the NOx emis-sion inventory.The uncertainties of a bottom-up emission inventory of NOx in China have been com-prehensively quantified by Zhao et al.(2011),who suggested t
29、hat the uncertainties(95%confidence intervals around central estimates)of Chinese NOx emissions were estimated to be 13%37%.In view of some arguments that the Chinese government probably underestimated the energy consumption during the period of 20002002(Akimoto et al.,2006),we also used energy cons
30、umption data from various relevant literature(Zhang Q.et al.,2007;Zhao et al.,2011)to reduce any uncertainties.2.4 Method for projected emissions In modern society,each human individual poses a negative impact on the environment.The total neg-ative impacts can be expressed by the IPAT(I:envi-ronment
31、al impact;P:population;A:affluence;T:technology)equation,which was proposed by Ehrlich and Holdren(1971).It is a simple conceptual ex-pression that the factors,such as population,eco-nomic growth,and technological change,create an environmental impact.We use the IPAT variants Eqs.(2-5)and(2-6)to pro
32、ject the future energy consumption and NOx emissions of China in different scenarios(Lu,2009).(1,1)()fbfbfbDgDt (2-5)(1,1)()fbfbfbBgBd (2-6)where b represents the base year,f represents the forecast year,g is the average annual growth rate of gross domestic product(GDP)between b and f,t is the avera
33、ge annual decline rate of energy consump-tion per unit of GDP between b and f,d is the average annual decline rate of NOx emissions per unit of GDP between b and f,D is the amount of energy con-sumption,and B is the amount of NOx emissions.3 Results and discussion 3.1 Growth of NOx emissions,energy
34、consump-tion,and GDP,20002010 Table 2 summarizes the annual NOx emissions that were estimated by either bottom-up methods or top-down methods(satellite observation)in China for the period 20002010.The differences between our estimation and other researchers were due to the utilization of different d
35、ata sources.Chinas economy has been maintaining a dramatic growth rate since the late 1970s,accompanying with an increased use of fossil fuels.As a main pollutant from fossil fuel combustion,NOx has caused many environment problems and its emissions are growing annually in China.Fig.1 shows the grow
36、th trends of GDP,energy consumption(calculated as standard coal equivalent(SCE),and NOx emissions in China for the period 20002010.To rule out the impacts of alternative prices on environmental loads per unit of GDP in different years,GDP was calculated at constant prices for the year 2000.Chinese G
37、DP increased dramati-cally by 2.7 times from 9921.4 billion CNY in 2000 to 27 095.6 billion CNY in 2010.At the same time,en-ergy consumption in China grew by 2.2 times,which directly spurred the increase in NOx emissions.As a Fig.1 GDP growth trends,energy consumption and NOx emissions of China 2000
38、200220042006200820101.01.52.02.53.03.5 RatioYear GDP energy consumption(SCE)NOxEnergy consumption(SCE)Shi et al./J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A(Appl Phys&Eng)2014 15(6):454-464 457 result,Chinas NOx emissions increased rapidly by 2.1 times,increasing from 11.81 million tons(Mt)in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010.Bot
39、h energy consumption and NOx emissions per unit of GDP increased slightly in 2003,compared with those in 2002,as shown in Fig.2.It can be ex-plained by the fact that China had come out of the shadow of the Asian economic recession,and flung itself into another economic boom.The year-over-year growth
40、 rates for energy consumption and NOx emissions in 2003 were 15.3%and 15.1%,respec-tively,which was higher than that of the GDP(10.5%).The secondary industry shares for the GDP of China increased from 49.7%in 2002 to 58.5%in 2003,which was the highest share during the period 20002010.With the boom o
41、f energy-intensive sec-ondary industries,including electricity,construction,and manufacturing,the energy consumption and NOx emissions increased significantly.However,in the long term,energy consumption and NOx emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 18.2%and 24.7%for the period 20002010,respectively
42、.This is because the Chinese government has introduced a number of energy conservation and emission reduction policies,which accelerated the industrial restructuring process over the past years.For instance,compared with the secondary industries,the tertiary industries are a well-accepted and enviro
43、nmental friendly industries,whose share of Chinas GDP increased from 39.0%in 2000 to 43.2%in 2010(NBS,20002012).These changes had a positive effect on reducing NOx emissions.3.2 Comparison of SO2 and NOx emissions To control SO2 emissions,flue gas desulfuriza-tion(FGD)technology has been widely impl
44、emented in coal-fired power plants in China due to its high efficiency and reliability.The FGD penetration rate in coal-fired power plants was approximately 86%in 2010(Schreifels et al.,2012).Therefore,the emis-sions of SO2 have been under effective control as shown in Fig.3(NBS,20002012).On the oth
45、er hand,the NOx emissions have increased over the past few years due to the lack of an effective control technology.It has been shown that NOx emissions had exceeded SO2 emissions in 2009,and the emission ratio of NOx to SO2 increased from 0.59 in 2000 to 1.11 in 2010 in China.This means that the ac
46、hieve-ments on curbing acid rain from reducing SO2 Table 2 Annual NOx emission estimation in China(Mt NO2)Reference Sources NOx emission estimation 2000 2001200220032004200520062007 2008 2009 2010NBS and MEP,2010 FF+BF 17.98 22.74Bottom-up methods Ohara et al.,2007 FF+BF+BB 11.19 11.7712.6914.49 Zha
47、ng et al.,2007 FF+BF 12.60 13.2014.4016.2018.60 Klimont et al.,2009 FF+BF+BB 11.65 16.93 Cao et al.,2011 FF+BF+BB 23.25 Saikawa et al.,2011 FF+BF+BB 11.75 Zhao et al.,2013 FF 12.00 19.48 26.05This research FF 11.81 11.8612.6214.5316.9218.5920.3521.72 22.69 23.26 24.33Top-down methods Wang et al.,201
48、1 FF+BF 18.50 Wang et al.,2012 ALL 21.5423.6025.99 26.83 FF:fossil fuel;BF:biofuel combustion;BB:biomass burning;ALL:FF+BF+BB+soil emissions+lightning 2000200220042006200820101.01.11.21.31.41.51.6 SCE/GDP NOx/GDPYearSCE/GDP(t/104 CNY)891011121314NOx/GDP(kg/104 CNY)Fig.2 Energy consumption and NOx em
49、issions per unit of GDP in China Shi et al./J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A(Appl Phys&Eng)2014 15(6):454-464 458emissions are compromised by the increase in NOx emissions(Zhao et al.,2009).In addition,the type of acid rain in China may convert from sulfuric domi-nant into nitric dominant.As NOx can react with
50、 other pollutants to form a secondary pollution,such as photochemical smog and ground-level ozone,its impacts on the environment and human health may outstrip SO2 in China.Hence,the Chinese govern-ment should pay more attention to improving NOx emission control.3.3 NOx emission inventory of fossil f