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1、Chinas Model of Science:Prepared by BluePath LabsAlex StoneRationale,Players,IssuesPrinted in the United States of Americaby the China Aerospace Studies InstituteISBN 9798407496274To request additional copies,please direct inquiries to Director,China Aerospace Studies Institute,Air University,55 Lem
2、ay Plaza,Montgomery,AL 36112All photos licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license,or under the Fair Use Doctrine under Section 107 of the Copyright Act for nonprofit educational and noncommercial use.All other graphics created by or for China Aerospace Stud
3、ies InstituteCover art by Alex Stone and Peter Wood based on the Quadrant Model of Scientific Research proposed by D.E.StokesE-mail:DirectorCASI-Research.orgWeb:http:/www.airuniversity.af.mil/CASIhttps:/ CASI_Researchhttps:/ views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the authors an
4、d do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S.Government or the Department ofDefense.In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303,Intellectual Property,Patents,Patent Related Matters,Trademarks and Copyrights;this work is the property of the US Government.Limited Print a
5、nd Electronic Distribution RightsReproduction and printing is subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and applicable treaties of the United States.This document and trademark(s)contained herein are protected by law.This publication is provided for noncommercial use only.Unauthorized posting of this pub
6、lication online is prohibited.Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal,academic,or governmental use only,as long as it is unaltered and complete however,it is requested that reproductions credit the author and China Aerospace Studies Institute(CASI).Permission is required from the
7、 China Aerospace Studies Institute to reproduce,or reuse in another form,any of its research documents for commercial use.For information on reprint and linking permissions,please contact the China Aerospace Studies Institute.Cleared for Public Release,Distribution unlimited.CASI would like to ackno
8、wledge the work and effort of Peter Wood and Taylor A.Lee for their valuable comments and edits.China Aerospace Studies Institute2China Aerospace Studies Institute3China Aerospace Studies InstituteCASIs mission is to advance understanding of the capabilities,development,operating concepts,strategy,d
9、octrine,personnel,organization,and limitations of Chinas aerospace forces,which include:the PLA Air Force(PLAAF);PLA Naval Aviation(PLAN Aviation);PLA Rocket Force(PLARF);PLA Army(PLAA)Aviation;the PLA Strategic Support Force(PLASSF);and the civilian and commercial infrastructure that supports the a
10、bove.CASI supports the Secretary,Chief of Staff of the Air Force,the Chief of Space Operations,and other senior Air and Space leaders.CASI provides expert research and analysis supporting decision and policy makers in the Department of Defense and across the U.S.government.CASI can support the full
11、range of units and organizations across the USAF,USSF,and the DoD.CASI accomplishes its mission through conducting the following activities:CASI primarily conducts open-source native-language research supporting its five main topic areas.CASI conducts conferences,workshops,roundtables,subject matter
12、 expert panels,and senior leader discussions to further its mission.CASI personnel attend such events,government,academic,and public,in support of its research and outreach efforts.CASI publishes research findings and papers,journal articles,monographs,and edited volumes for both public and governme
13、nt-only distribution as appropriate.CASI establishes and maintains institutional relationships with organizations and institutions in the PLA,the PRC writ large,and with partners and allies involved in the region.CASI maintains the ability to support senior leaders and policy decision makers across
14、the full spectrum of topics and projects at all levels,related to Chinese aerospace.CASI supports the U.S.Defense Department and the China research community writ-large by providing high quality,unclassified research on Chinese aerospace developments in the context of U.S.strategic imperatives in th
15、e Asia-Pacific region.Primarily focused on Chinas Military Air,Space,and Missile Forces,CASI capitalizes on publicly available native language resources to gain insights as to how the Chinese speak to and among one another on these topics.China Aerospace Studies Institute4Abbreviations CAE Chinese A
16、cademy of Engineering CAS China Academy of SciencesCASC China Aerospace Science and Technology CorporationCCDRC Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms CommissionCCP Chinese Communist Party CLSGCTW Central Leading Small Group for Coordinating Talent WorkCMC Central Military CommissionCSU Central S
17、outh UniversityDLUT Dalian University of TechnologyDOD Department of DefenseDORA San Francisco Declaration on Research AssessmentEDD Equipment Development Department FYP Five Year PlansGAD General Armament DepartmentIDDS Innovation-Driven Development StrategyIF Impact FactorLSG Leading Small GroupMC
18、F Military-Civil FusionMIIT Ministry of Information and TechnologyMLP Medium to long-term plan for the development of science and technologyMOE Ministry of EducationMOF Ministry of FinanceMOST Ministry of Science and TechnologyNIS National Innovation SystemNPG Nature Publishing GroupNSFC National Na
19、tural Science Foundation of ChinaNSR National Science ReviewNSTIAC National Science,Technology,and Innovation Advisory CommitteeOECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPI Primary InvestigatorsR&D Research and DevelopmentS&E Science and engineeringSAFEA State Administration of Fore
20、ign Experts AffairsChina Aerospace Studies Institute5SCI Science Citation IndexSoSP Science of Science PolicySR&ED Scientific research and experimental developmentSTI Science,Technology,and InnovationChina Aerospace Studies Institute6Table of ContentsKey Findings 7Introduction 10Scope Note 11Organiz
21、ation of this Report 15Section 1 Recurring Themes in the Chinese Model of Science 1611 Saving China Through Science 1612“Science cannot be divorced from politics,and is dominated and governed by politics”2013 Whole-of-Nation Approach to STI Advancement 2314 Reform,Reform,Reform 30Section 2 Policy Pl
22、ayers and Processes 3221 Players and Processes at the Highest-Level 3322 Players and Processes at the Ministerial Level 38Section 3 The Research Base 4331 R&D Ecosystem at a Glance 4432 Trends in Research and Development Activities 4833 Assessing output 52Appendix 1:Distinctions between national sci
23、ence,technology,and innovation policies 70Appendix 2:Basic framework of 2006 Medium to Long-term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology(2006-2020)71Appendix 3:Chinese National S&T Megaprojects 71China Aerospace Studies Institute7Key FindingsHistorical Experience Continues to Shape Chinas
24、 Approach to Scientific DevelopmentThe logic of Chinas approach to science policy continues to be significantly impacted by the circumstances surrounding the origin of modern Chinese science.Catastrophic defeats the Qing government suffered at the hands of the Western powers in the First and Second
25、Opium Wars led to both the embrace of Western technologies as a means of national salvation and the rejection of other cultural elements that could jeopardize the fundamentals of Chinese culture.Senior leaders today continue to underscore the publics faith in the Chinese model of development and the
26、 need for“self-reliance in S&T,”while at the same time employ an aggressive set of policies to acquire technology and recruit talent from abroad.Chinese scholars have also argued that the“saving China through science”school of thought shaped during this period of history conflated the idea of“scienc
27、e”with“technology,”leading to a strongly utilitarian view of science as a tool for serving national security and economic needs.This utilitarian view of science,reinforced after the Chinese Communist Party took power,has long-last policy implications,contributing to the policy rationale that strongl
28、y favored the“D”of R&D at the expense of funding for scientific research critical to innovation.Chinese Leaders Continue to Favor a Whole-of-Nation Approach to STI,Despite Skepticism From Leading Chinese ScientistsThe whole-of-nation approach,a legacy of Soviet influence,rests on the premise that ST
29、I advancement can be planned and managed through comprehensive,highly-specific,top-down authoritative directives and large-scale mobilizations of efforts and resources.Leading Chinese scientists have questioned both the approachs premise and execution,particularly with regard to its effectiveness in
30、 promoting advances in science,pointing to the erroneous assumption that scientific advances(unlike technological development)can be planned.Other criticisms point to problems such as a lack of input from the scientific community during the planning stage,misdirected investment due to inadequate tec
31、hnology forecasting,bureaucratic interference,poorly executed performative assessments,among others.China Has Further Consolidated Responsibility For S&T PlanningThe 13th FYP period(2016-2020)saw the further centralization and consolidation of S&T development responsibilities by the Ministry of Scie
32、nce and Technology(MOST).MOST expanded its portfolio to include responsibilities in drafting national basic research plans and crafting policies for recruiting foreign talents following its absorption of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),the primary funding vehicle for basic res
33、earch in China,and the State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs in March 2018.MOST and NSFC together managed a 45%share of the central governments R&D expenditure in 2018.MOST houses the offices for two important State Council leading small groups for S&T developmentthe National Science and T
34、echnology Leading Small Group and the National S&T Tizhi Reform and Innovation System Construction LSG.MOST is also responsible for convening the Inter-Ministerial Joint Council consisting of 31 government bodies.The Joint Council is charged with cross-agency coordination of STI development strategi
35、es and policies and making budgetary decisions regarding the centrally-funded STI programs,which were comprehensively restructured during the 13th FYP.China Aerospace Studies Institute8New Science Policy Advisory Bodies Were Introduced During the 13th FYP PeriodThe 13th FYP period(2016-2020)saw two
36、discernable lines of effort following calls from senior leadership for the development of a national science,technology,and innovation(STI)advisory system to improve STI policymaking.The first line effort was the creation of a National STI Advisory Committee(NSTIAC).While its exact composition or op
37、erational status unclear,it is positioned as the nations highest-level decision-making and consulting organization with direct communication lines to the central leadership.Envisioned as providing regular briefings to the Party Central Committee and the State Council on the latest trends in internat
38、ional scientific and technological innovation,on paper,the NSTIAC appears to function similarly to the U.S.Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.The second line of effort involves the creation and designation of“specialized high-end think tanks,”organizations providing strategic S
39、&T consulting services are becoming increasingly adept at employing new technologies and bid data analysis to conduct landscape analysis in support of STI decision making.Funding Basic Research is Becoming a Policy PriorityAfter decades of underfunding,Chinese STI policymakers have pledged significa
40、nt boost in support for basic research.Trends in Chinas research and development activities suggest that Chinas STI policy overemphasizes experimental development and high-tech industries at the expense of basic scientific research.Between 1995 and 2019,share of experimental development increased fr
41、om 69%to 83%.Basic research averaged around 5 percent of total R&D expenditure,while share of applied research dropped from 26%in 1995 to 11%in 2019,both lower than the OECD average.The lack of support for basic research caught the attention of senior leaders in 2018.Premier Li Keqiang has attribute
42、d many of Chinas chokepoint technology problems to its inadequate support for basic scientific research.Policymakers have issued new guidance on strengthening support for basic research and pledged to increase share of basic research spending to 8%during the 14th FYP period(2021-2025).The decline in
43、 applied research spending,however,continues to be overlooked.Chinese scholars have argued that the decline in applied research,which serves as a critical link in the R&D process,could jeopardize Chinas ambition to become an innovative country.Chinas Strong Performance in STI Indicators Come with Im
44、portant CaveatsDespite explosive growth in quantity and significant improvement in quality,the research output of the homegrown research base has yet to translate into tangible gains desired by the policymakers and the scientific community at large.Strong performance in major STI indicators such as
45、publication and patent numbers by Chinas science and engineering research base has engendered perceptions of China as a formidable competitor for global scientific supremacy by the international community.However,domestic discourse on the subject takes on a calmer tone.Senior leaders are concerned a
46、bout Chinas struggle in delivering original,transformative scientific breakthroughs and its prospects of achieving self-sufficiency in critical chokepoint technologies.Preliminary research suggests the impact of research from Chinas indigenously-educated research base lags behind those of returning
47、scientists.Chinas remarkably low patent commercialization rate points to extremely low return on investment by the central government.China Aerospace Studies Institute9Chinese scientists have also called attention to the limitations of common STI indicators as measures of scientific progress in the
48、Chinese context,pointing to factors at play that could skew the calculations.Further,overemphasis on simple quantitative metrics to assess individual researchers and institutions has serious negative implications for Chinese STI development.The practice of publication-only evaluation has driven many
49、 to publish“garbage papers”research without consideration of plausibility,scientific,or societal value.Leading Chinese scientists warn that the nation faces an unprecedented academic integrity crisis both in terms of the prevalence of the practice of research misconduct and fraud and the severity of
50、 the transgressions.China Aerospace Studies Institute10IntroductionOn 20 January 2021 newly inaugurated President Biden sent a letter to his science advisor,geneticist Eric Lander,posing five essential questions about how to ensure Americas leadership in science and technology for the next 75 years.