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1、C O R P O R AT I O NEMMI YONEKURA,BRIAN DOLAN,MOON KIM,KRISTA ROMITA GROCHOLSKI,RAZA KHAN,YOOL KIMCommercial Space Capabilities and Market OverviewThe Relationship Between Commercial Space Developments and the U.S.Department of DefenseResearch ReportRR-A578-2 Commercial Space Capabilities and Market
2、 Overview Cover.indd All Pages4/4/22 1:24 PMFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA578-2.About RANDThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthi
3、er and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity an
4、d our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior.To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous,objective,and nonpartisan,we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process;avoid both the appearance and reality of financia
5、l and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations,disclosure of the source of funding of publi
6、shed research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/principles.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2022 RAND Corporation is a regi
7、stered trademark.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN:978-1-9774-0920-1Cover:NASA.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s)contained herein are protected by law.This representation of RAND intellectual property
8、 is provided for noncommercial use only.Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited.Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only,as long as it is unaltered and complete.Permission is required from RAND to reproduce,or reuse in another form,any of its researc
9、h documents for commercial use.For information on reprint and linking permissions,please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.iii About This Report The U.S.Space Force(USSF)and U.S.Department of Defense(DoD)are examining and pursuing various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of t
10、heir policy goals to promote the U.S.space industry and their strategy for improving the national security space architecture.As the commercial space industry continues to grow in capability,capacity,and diversity,opportunities for the USSF and DoD to leverage commercial capabilities are expanding.S
11、pecifically,the USSF is considering the role of the commercial space industry in its future space architecture and the innovation ecosystem.It is faced with many choices about which commercial capability to leverage or for which military application it should use commercial instead of organic space
12、capabilities.Making such choices requires a thorough assessment of commercial space capabilities to understand the benefits,risks,and costs associated with using them and inform decisions about trade-offs across those dimensions based on the priorities of the USSF and other relevant stakeholders.To
13、inform decisions related to leveraging commercial space capabilities,the RAND Corporation developed an analytic framework for a systematic and holistic assessment of the benefits,risks,and costs associated with commercial space options.The results of this research are reported in a series of reports
14、 and a spreadsheet tool.Leveraging Commercial Space Capabilities to Enhance the Space Architecture of the U.S.Department of Defense.This report is not available to the general public.Commercial Space Capabilities and Market Overview:The Relationship Between Commercial Space Developments and the U.S.
15、Department of Defense(RR-A578-2)characterizes capabilities and trends in the commercial space sector.The cutoff date for information gathered and included in this report is June 15,2020,and there are rapid changes in the commercial space industry.A Framework for an Integrated Assessment of Commercia
16、l Space Capabilities.This report is not available to the general public.RAND Corporation Spreadsheet Tool to Assess Commercial Capabilities in Space(STACCS)(TL-A578-1).This tool is not available to the general public.The research reported here was commissioned by the Office of U.S.Space Force Strate
17、gic Requirements,Architectures and Analysis(USSF S5/9)1 and conducted within the Force 1 When this project began,the sponsoring office was Air Force Space Command HQ A5/9,which became U.S.Space Force Strategic Requirements,Architectures and Analysis(USSF S5/9).Shortly after the completion of our res
18、earch,USSF S5/9 was disbanded,with its roles and responsibilities moved to the newly established USSF Headquarters at the Pentagon.iv Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2020 project,A Robust Strategy for Leveraging Commercial Space Capabilities.RA
19、ND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE(PAF),a division of the RAND Corporation,is the Department of the Air Forces(DAFs)federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses,supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force.PAF provides the DAF wi
20、th independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,employment,combat readiness,and support of current and future air,space,and cyber forces.Research is conducted in four programs:Strategy and Doctrine;Force Modernization and Employment;Resource Management;and Workforce,Developm
21、ent,and Health.The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.Additional information about PAF is available on our website:www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the DAF on February 3,2020.The draft report,issued on September 30,2020,was reviewed
22、by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts.Acknowledgments We would like to thank Lt Gen William Liquori,Jr.,Deputy Chief of Space Operations,Strategy,Plans,Programs,Requirements,and Analysis,Headquarters,USSF,for supporting this project and providing very helpful guidance.We are gratef
23、ul to our project monitor,Chris Ayres,Space Operations Command,Deputy Commanding General Operations,Deputy Director(formerly USSF S5/9 Technical Director and Advanced Capabilities),for his support,insight,and assistance throughout the project.We would also like to thank the industry representatives
24、from Intelsat,SES,Amazon Web Services Ground Station,Atlas Space Operations,ExoAnalytic Solutions,Numerica,and Rincon,who participated in our data-collection effort and discussions.This work also benefited greatly from discussions with Lt Col Paul Muller,a RAND Air Force fellow,about the SATCOM miss
25、ion,and with RAND colleague George Nacouzi about the remote sensing and space domain awareness missions.We also thank Barbara Bicksler for her communications support to improve the clarity and readability of the report.The content and recommendations of this report,however,are the responsibility of
26、the authors.v Summary Issue The U.S.Space Force(USSF)and U.S.Department of Defense(DoD)are considering various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of their policy goals to promote the U.S.space industry and improve the resiliency of the national security space architecture.The com
27、mercial space sector offers a range of capabilities and services,including emerging technologies.The commercial capability,commercial capacity,and demand signals from the U.S.government have rapidly evolved recently for many space capabilities.As the USSF and DoD face choices about leveraging commer
28、cial space capabilities,they need to be aware of the current capabilities and trends of the commercial space sector.Approach The analysis was conducted by reviewing past assessments of commercial space capabilities and open-source literature to characterize capabilities,technological innovation,and
29、trends of the space sector.Where needed,we collected additional new information from relevant government organizations and space service providers.We reviewed the commercial space capabilities of satellite communications(SATCOM),space launch,remote sensing,environmental monitoring,space domain aware
30、ness,data transmit/receive networks,and space logistics.Commercial capabilities were limited to U.S.companies or companies with a U.S.subsidiary.Observations More-established commercial space sectors are growing in capacity and capability.The SATCOM sector has begun using high-throughput satellites
31、and is planning proliferated low earth orbit constellations.The space launch sector has had two new National Security Space Launch(NSSL)class entrants,is developing super-heavy launch vehicles(LVs),and has a growing number of small LV entrants.The remote sensing sector has a quickly growing number o
32、f multi-satellite constellations and diversity in sensor phenomenology and analytic products.New entrants are also responsible for recent growth in the commercial space industry.The growth and evolution of new entrants have been driven by small satellite technologies and the proliferated constellati
33、on model,advanced manufacturing,use of artificial intelligence and machine learning,and venture capital investments.Among the new space sectors,some will serve commercial space operators,while other new space sectors will primarily target government customers.Driven by the commercial proliferation o
34、f space,space domain awareness entrants will offer enhanced collision warnings,and ground station entrants will provide data-transport services to vi offer timely downlink of high-volume data(i.e.,for remote sensing satellites).Environmental monitoring entrants are collecting Global Navigation Satel
35、lite System Radio Occultation(GNSS-RO)data for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency(NOAA)and DoD.Space logistics entrants are planning space debrisremoval services and on-orbit servicing for satellite life extension,both of which garner interest from government space programs.Recommendations
36、All space sectors we reviewed have experienced changes in the past five years(Table S.1),indicating that it is important for DoD and other stakeholders to periodically update their information about the industry.These industries changed quite a bit during our research alone,so it may be necessary to
37、 update information annually when startups are involved.DoD and other stakeholders should track several technology-development and commercial-viability factors going forward,because these will have significant impacts on the space market(see Table S.1).Table S.1.Recent and Future Developments in the
38、 Commercial Space Industry Sector Changes in Recent Years Futures to Watch Satellite communication Increased commercial capacity with increased market demand Added global broadband capacity from nongeosynchronous satellite operator constellations Space launch Increase in the number of launch-service
39、 providers across all launch classes Technology developments:reusability,on-orbit reignition,increase lift capacity Effect of NSSL Phase 2 contract award on the market Remote sensing Expansion in current and planned proliferated low earth orbit launches Size of commercial market and financial viabil
40、ity of startups Environmental monitoring NOAA and DoD focus on GNSS-RO Success in some GNSS-RO launch and operationscommercial and government Lack of progress in hyperspectral soundings New startups with developments in microwave,electro-optical/infrared,and space weather capabilities Space domain a
41、wareness Increased demand with more entrants into space domain Size of commercial market and financial viability of startups Space proliferation driving demand and/or collaboration Data transmit/receive networks(ground stations)New U.S.companies offering ground stations as a service for commercial a
42、nd government customers Electronically steered antennas/multiphase array Optical communications technology Space logistics(on-orbit servicing)Launch of only one company Developing niche capabilities from a few companies Realization of technological developments,enabling on-orbit refueling,assembly,a
43、nd manufacturing SOURCE:RAND analysis of open-source reporting.vii Contents About This Report.iiiSummary.vFigures and Tables.ix1.Introduction.1Organization of This Report.52.Satellite Communications.6Mission Scope.6Market Overview.6Key Company Assessments.113.Space Launch.17Mission Scope.17Market Ov
44、erview.17Key Company Assessments.204.Remote Sensing.25Mission Scope.25Market Overview.25Key Company Assessments.315.Environmental Monitoring.34Mission Scope.34Market Overview.35Key Company Assessments.376.Space Domain Awareness.39Mission Scope.39Market Overview.41Key Company Assessments.437.Data Tra
45、nsmit/Receive Networks.45Mission Scope.45Market Overview.45Key Company Assessments.478.Space Logistics.51Mission Scope.51Market Overview.51Key Company Assessments.549.Conclusion.56Commercial Space Industry Observations.56Summaries by Space Mission.56Recommendations.61 viii Abbreviations.62References
46、.64 ix Figures and Tables Figures Figure 2.1.Revenues of Four Major SATCOM Service Providers.7Figure 4.1.Estimated Number of Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites,19952023.27Figure 4.2.Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Global Revenue,20092018.28Figure 4.3.Capabilities of Commercial Remote Sensing C
47、onstellations.30Figure 7.1.Ground-Station Locations for Commercial GSaaS Networks.50Tables Table S.1.Recent and Future Developments in the Commercial Space Industry.viTable 1.1.DoD Motivation for Leveraging Commercial Space by Mission.4Table 2.1.2018 Commercial SATCOM Services Market Revenue(Excludi
48、ng Satellite TV and Radio).6Table 2.2.Total Revenue for the Major SATCOM Companies.9Table 2.3.Key Geostationary Satellite Operators.12Table 2.4.Key NonGeostationary Satellite Operators.14Table 3.1.U.S.Space Launch Market Overview.18Table 3.2.Key U.S.Small-Lift Launch Service Providers.23Table 4.1.Co
49、mmercial Geospatial Intelligence Contracts by NRO,as of March 2020.29Table 4.2.Summary of Select U.S.-Based Remote Sensing Commercial Service Providers.33Table 5.1.Status of Major GNSS-RO Companies.38Table 6.1.Commercial SDA Ground-Based Observational Data Providers.44Table 7.1.GSaaS Company Data.49
50、Table 8.1.Key Space Logistics Companies.55Table 9.1.Recent and Future Developments in the Commercial Space Industry.60 1 1.Introduction The U.S.Space Force(USSF)and U.S.Department of Defense(DoD)are considering and pursuing various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of their poli