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1、#GetTheFutureYouWantA PATH TO A GREENER FUTUREINTRODUCTIONThe energy transition and the global imperative towards sustainability have driven organizations to explore new energy models and solutions.Low-carbon hydrogen is gaining recognition as one of the possible routes to accelerating decarbonizati
2、on of high-emission sectors such as industry and heavy mobility.Many countries including US,China,Japan as well as many European Union countries amongst others have announced major investments to accelerate its development.However,today prominent production pathways for hydrogen continue to rely on
3、the use of fossil fuels.The move to“low-carbon hydrogen”could avoid the annual emission of 830 million tons of CO2 currently emitted by conventionally produced hydrogen,1 a vital contribution to securing a clean-energy future.Francesco La Camera,Director-General of the International Renewable Energy
4、 Agency(IRENA),comments:“Cost-competitive low-carbon hydrogen can help us build a resilient energy system that thrives on modern technologies and embraces innovative solutions fit for the 21st century.”2 This fuel source is creating new commercial opportunities throughout the value chain including a
5、lternative revenue streams,as well as new business models but it must present an economically competitive alternative to carbon-based hydrogen if businesses are to consider it as viable in the long term.To understand how organizations could capitalize on low-carbon hydrogens potential,we conducted a
6、 global survey across 13 countries,with responses from 500 executives from energy and utilities(E&U)firms and 360 executives from end-user sectors,including heavy transportation,aviation,maritime transport,steel,chemicals,and refining3.To complement the quantitative insights,we also conducted more t
7、han 20 in-depth interviews with supply-and demand-side organizations,startups,venture capital(VC)organizations,academics,researchers,and regulators.2Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener Future In this report,we will be exploring five major themesThe decarbonizatio
8、n potential of low-carbon hydrogenEvolving business models,as well as existing and emerging use casesInvestments in low-carbon hydrogen,from regulatory/policy and organizational perspectives Key challenges and major roadblocks across the value chainKey business,organizational,and technological facto
9、rs in accelerating low-carbon hydrogen projectsINTRODUCTION123453Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureEXECUTIVESUMMARYUnderpinned by a global shift towards decarbonization,hydrogen is gaining significance as an energy vector,especially for high-emission sect
10、ors that do not use electricity directly.Most organizations in our research believe that low-carbon hydrogen will be a long-term contributor to achieving emissions and sustainability goals:63 percent of energy and utilities(E&U)organizations see it is as a key tool to decarbonize economies 62 percen
11、t of end-user organizations are looking to introduce low-carbon hydrogen to carbon-intensive parts of their business E&U organizations expect low-carbon hydrogen to meet up to 18 percent of energy demand by 2050 With government support,declining renewable-energy costs,rapid technological advances,an
12、d a growing focus on decarbonization and sustainable energy solutions,the demand for low-carbon hydrogen is expected to increase multifold.Sectors with traditional hydrogen applications,particularly in petroleum refining,chemicals and fertilizers,and steel,have high potential for adoption of low-car
13、bon hydrogen.Demand for hydrogen in new applications such as long-range ground mobility(for heavy-duty trucks,coaches),long-haul aviation specifically sustainable aviation fuel(SAF),or maritime is expected to pick up.Our research suggests that a majority(64 percent)of E&U organizations are planning
14、to invest in low-carbon hydrogen initiatives by 2030;and 9 in 10 plan to do so by 2050.On average,0.4 percent of total annual 4Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener Futurerevenue is earmarked for low-carbon hydrogen by E&U organizations.Investments are flowing in a
15、cross the hydrogen value chain especially into development of cost-effective production technology(52%of organizations investing),electrolyzers and,fuel cells(45%),and hydrogen infrastructure(53%)to help create alternative revenue streams and aid in decarbonization efforts.From the regulatory side,8
16、0+countries across the world support clean-hydrogen production,either through hydrogen policies or roadmaps,or by providing support for low-carbon hydrogen projects and R&D via subsidies or emission-trading schemes,or by levying taxes on carbon-intensive hydrogen.However,substantial challenges remai
17、n.Today,low-carbon hydrogen is 23 times more costly to produce than carbon-based hydrogen.Moreover,storage,transportation and energy losses across the value chain increase the total cost of operations(TCO).Finally,technology,engineering,infrastructural,and skill-related challenges are also impedimen
18、ts to more rapid hydrogen adoption.While the emerging market for low-carbon hydrogen is both highly complex and fragmented,it holds real decarbonization potential.To seize this opportunity,mitigate costs,and scale at pace,organizations will need to address three aspects:Strategic:To scale up hydroge
19、n production,investments must be shared between public and private players and customer demand must be strong.Organizations should evaluate new business models from sustainability as well as total cost of ownership perspectives.To enable these models,defining a governance structure dedicated to low-
20、carbon-hydrogen production along with a focus on education EXECUTIVESUMMARY5Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureEXECUTIVESUMMARYand upskilling programs is required.Technological:Organizations must harness the potential of technology and digital engineering
21、to mitigate challenges related to asset-level measurement of carbon intensity,cost-optimization,efficiency,safety,performance,profitability,and real-time decision-making.Technologies such as digital twins,artificial intelligence(AI),analytics,and blockchain can help address these implementation chal
22、lenges by modelling various scenarios to maximize ROI and allowing data-driven decision-making throughout the lifecycle and across ecosystems.Ecosystem:Finally,to emerge as a preferred partner for end-user organizations,and to bring low-carbon hydrogen as a viable alternative,organizations should bu
23、ild partnerships with electrolyzer providers,renewable-energy producers,storage providers,and supply-chain entities to facilitate production at scale.6Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureAnn Rosenberg Co-Founder of SDG Ambition at United Nations Global Comp
24、actWhile its still in the early stages,I believe that hydrogen has the potential to be one of the most mature renewable technologies,capable of accelerating our transition towards sustainable energy.7Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureWhat is low-carbon hy
25、drogen?Hydrogen is the simplest,lightest,and most abundant element in the universe.It does not exist freely in nature but rather is produced from sources such as fossil fuels,renewables,and nuclear,using a range of extraction and production techniques.Hydrogens valuable attributes such as high energ
26、y content per unit mass(three times more than gasoline)4 lack of CO2 emissions at point of use;and potential as a storage medium for electricity make it an attractive energy vector and fuel.Moreover,its ability to be stored and transported in various forms(gaseous,liquid,or even converted to other m
27、olecules)makes it a powerful enabler for decarbonization both in relation to energy systems and end-use applications.However,not all hydrogen is created equal.Most hydrogen is currently produced via steam methane reforming of natural gas,emitting high levels of CO2 during production.Figure 1 highlig
28、hts the various hydrogen production methods and their associated carbon intensity.While the colors of hydrogen are a helpful way to categorize the production pathways,what is more important is the resulting carbon intensity,which can vary significantly even within a given color.Low-carbon hydrogenFo
29、r hydrogen production to be considered low-carbon,it must come under the EUs proposed emissions threshold of 3.38 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of hydrogen5,which is 70%lower than that of the predefined fossil fuel comparator,including transport and other non-production emissions.6 In the US,the correspo
30、nding carbon intensity value to qualify for hydrogen production tax credits under the IRA is 4.0 kg CO2e/kgH2.7 Although low-carbon hydrogen can include biomass pyrolysis as well,in this research,our main focus includes renewable or nuclear-energy-powered electrolysis-produced hydrogen emitting no o
31、r marginal carbon.WHAT IS LOW-CARBON HYDROGEN?8Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureGasificationCoal25 kg11 kg0.030.37 kgNatural gasBiomassRenewablesNuclearSteam methane reforming(SMR)#PyrolysisPyrolysisElectrolysisElectrolysisSMR with carbon capture,utiliza
32、tion,and storage(CCUS)#Low-carbon hydrogen($50B$10B$19.99B$1B$4.99B%OF RESPONDENTS BY ORGANIZATION REVENUE(E&U ORGANIZATIONS)%OF RESPONDENTS BY ORGANIZATION REVENUE(END-USER ORGANIZATIONS)$500M$999 M$20B$49.99B$1B$4.99B$5B$9.99B$5B$9.99B$10B$19.99B$20B$49.99B$50B7%61%13%11%9%7%49%15%13%9%7%Source:Ca
33、pgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=500 respondents from unique energy and utilities organizationsSource:Capgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=360 respondents from unique end-user organizations82Capgemini Research In
34、stitute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureOil and gas extraction%OF RESPONDENTS BY ORGANIZATION INDUSTRY(E&U ORGANIZATIONS)Energy serviceIntegrated oil and gasRefining,marketing,anddistribution(including retail)Electric utilities(generation,transportation,distribution,energy supply)A
35、lternative energy Multi-utilitiesGas utilities(transmission,distribution)Water utilities19%12%9%6%4%21%16%7%7%Utilities(50%)Energy(50%)Source:Capgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=500 respondents from unique energy and utilities organizations83Capgemini Rese
36、arch Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureChemicals&fertilizers%OF RESPONDENTS BY ORGANIZATION INDUSTRY(END-USER ORGANIZATIONS)SteelHeavy-duty transportation(including coaches/heavy trucks/trains)AviationPetroleum(refining)Maritime20%20%16%15%15%14%Source:Capgemini Research In
37、stitute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=360 respondents from unique end-user organizations.84Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureGeneral management/business management/strategy and corporate functionsEngineering/R&DOperations(supply chain
38、,procurement,production,etc.)%OF RESPONDENTS BY DEPARTMENT/FUNCTION(E&U ORGANIZATIONS)%OF RESPONDENTS BY DEPARTMENT/FUNCTION(END-USER ORGANIZATIONS)Sustainability business unitInnovation 33%10%9%4%4%3%3%22%30%26%24%18%2%10%13%14%4%3%1%1%Operations(supply chain,procurement,production,etc.)Environment
39、/SustainabilityEnergy transitionRenewablePower generationDecarbonizationNew energiesIndustry applicationHydrogen business unitEngineering/R&DInnovationGeneral management/business management/strategy and corporate functionsAccelerators programsPublic®ulatory affairs Source:Capgemini Research Insti
40、tute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=500 respondents from unique energy and utilities organizationsSource:Capgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=360 respondents from unique end-user organizations.85Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbo
41、n Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener Future%OF RESPONDENTS BY DESIGNANTION(E&U ORGANIZATIONS)%OF RESPONDENTS BY DESIGNANTION(END-USER ORGANIZATIONS)26%24%14%3%1%1%31%Chief Innovation OfficerChief Strategy OfficerDivisional HeadExecutive Vice President/Senior Vice PresidentDirectorAssociate Vice President/
42、Vice PresidentSenior Director23%21%15%3%1%1%2%1%33%Chief Product OfficerChief Innovation OfficerChief Strategy OfficerChief Sustainability OfficerDivisional HeadsSVP/EVPAVP/VPDirectorSenior DirectorSource:Capgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=500 respondents
43、 from unique energy and utilities organizationsSource:Capgemini Research Institute,low-carbon hydrogen survey,NovemberDecember 2022;N=360 respondents from unique end-user organizations86Capgemini Research Institute 2023Low-Carbon Hydrogen:A Path To A Greener FutureReferences1.IEA,“The future of hydr
44、ogen:Seizing todays opportunities,”June 2019.2.IRENA,“Making green hydrogen a cost-competitive climate solution,”December 2020.3.Note:Selected end-user sectors included in the survey based on hydrogen usage potential.4.US Energy Information Administration,“Hydrogen explained,”January 2022.5.European
45、 Commission,“Commission sets out rules for renewable hydrogen,”February 2023;Euractiv,“EU Parliament backs pro-nuclear definition of low-carbon hydrogen,”February 2023.6.IEA,“Northwest European Hydrogen Monitor,”accessed March 15,2023.7.Department of Energy,“U.S.Department of Energy Clean Hydrogen P
46、roduction Standard(CHPS)draft guidance,”accessed March 15,2023.8.Hydrogen Europe,Clean Hydrogen Monitor,2022,October 2022.9.SoCalGas,“GKN Hydrogen,SoCalGas,and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory collaborate on new hydrogen storage project,”June 2022.10.IRENA,“Energy transition technology:Hydro
47、gen,”accessed February 3,2023.11.IRENA,“World energy transition outlook 2022,1.50 pathway,”May 202212.IEA,Hydrogen tracking report,September 2022.13.S&P Global,“US developers stand by blue hydrogen as some question its competitiveness”,August 202214.ExxonMobil,“ExxonMobil planning hydrogen productio
48、n,carbon capture and storage at Baytown complex,”March 2022.15.Business Wire,“Air Liquide,Chevron,LyondellBasell,and Uniper to Pursue Lower Carbon Hydrogen and Ammonia Project Along the U.S.Gulf Coast,”October 2022.16.World Economic Forum,“Grey,blue,green why are there so many colours of hydrogen?”J
49、uly 2021.17.IEA,Hydrogen tracking report,September 2022.18.ExxonMobil,“Construction begins on new hydrocracker at Rotterdam refinery,”June 2016.19.Offshore Energy,“Yara joins HyPilot project to test use of hydrogen in green ammonia production,”September 2022.20.ArcelorMittal,“ArcelorMittal successfu
50、lly tests partial replacement of natural gas with green hydrogen to produce DRI,”May 2022.21.DAF,“Hydrogen an interesting option for the future,”2023.22.Volvo,“Volvo Trucks showcases new zero-emissions truck,”June 2022.23.BBC,“The race to make diesel engines run on hydrogen,”January 2023.24.Man Ener