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1、 How new rules are reshuffling consumer goods markets The sustainability gameTHE BIGMore and more countries around the globe are committing themselves to and regulation is going to increase significantly.P.12net zero Our Consumer Pressure Index,based on analysis of conversations across 14 countries,
2、shows that sustainability is not just a purchasing criterion for consumers its a hygiene factor.P.0884 millionKey consumer goods industries currently estimate the market to be worth around in retail sales globally but to secure future growth,they must now put sustainability at the heart of their str
3、ategy.P.05USD 14 trillionCover illustration:Anton Hallmann/Sepia1 PAGE 05 The rules of the game are changing.Sustainability is a matter of survival.2 PAGE 08 Consumer and regulatory pressure is growing.We provide transparency.3 PAGE 14 From food and beverages to luxury.Deep dives into key consumer g
4、oods industries and their sustainability efforts.4 PAGE 29 Solutions for consumer goods companies.Our recommendations.Contents3The sustainability game|Think:ActExecutive SummaryENVIRONMENTAL,SOCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE issues are front of mind for executives in all types of industries today,and
5、the consumer goods industry is no exception.Pressure from consumers on the one side and regulators on the other is reshaping consumer goods markets and radically changing the rules of the game.Companies must act fast or risk seeing their revenues collapse and potentially their very existence called
6、into question.But with every risk comes opportunity.Research carried out for the purpose of this study,including an analysis of some 84 million posts on social media,e-commerce sites,forums and blogs across 14 countries,provides us with unique insights into what is driving the changes in the market
7、and how companies can best leverage them.The data creates a picture of what the sustainable consumer of 2030 could look like their lifestyle,their sense of responsibility,their values and how pressure from regulators differs from country to country and industry to industry.These two factors are enca
8、psulated in our Consumer Pressure Index(developed in cooperation with our partner Symanto)and our Regulatory Pressure Index.We also present a series of deep dives into the four key consumer goods industries:food and beverages(F&B),fashion,personal and home care,and luxury.We examine where current ac
9、tion on sustainability is taking place,the challenges for sustainability going forward,what the survey data tells us about each industry,and how things may change by the year 2030.To secure their future success,consumer goods companies must put sustainability right at the heart of their strategy.Wit
10、h this in mind,we present eight recommendations,some applicable to companies in specific industries and others across the entire sector.In particular,companies should remember that tackling the sustainability challenge is not something that can be put off.The time to act is now,when markets are bein
11、g reshuffled,and not tomorrow,when they may find they have been dealt a losing hand.4 Think:Act|The sustainability gameTO MAINTAIN OUR STANDARD OF LIVING,we currently use the equivalent of 1.75 Earths in terms of resources and ecological services,according to The World Counts.Ecosystems cannot keep
12、up with our demands.As a result,between 100 and 300 million people are at increased risk of floods and hurricanes and many more are affected each year by extreme weather conditions.Sustainability has become more than just a buzzword it is now a matter of survival.How are businesses reacting to the g
13、rowing consumer and regulatory pressure to take action on ESG issues and reduce their environmental impact?And what effect will consumer concerns and tightening regulations have on the consumer goods industry?The pressure on companies to act represents a severe risk for business across all regions a
14、nd industries.Players that fail to react will be punished by both consumers and institutions,and may even face a threat to their survival.Companies are grappling with the challenge of forecasting their CO2 emissions,so that they can then meet their targets.Failure to do so can be costly,as CO2 emiss
15、ions have become a new worldwide currency.The precise nature of the risk companies face depends on their industry and geography.But with every risk there also comes opportunity,such as being a first mover in the paradigm shift and enjoying competitive advantages as a result.Rather than just a risk t
16、o business,sustainability can in fact become a key driver of value as we discuss in this study.Before we investigate the impact of sustainability on consumer goods markets,we should take a look at the current shape of the industry and what lies ahead of it.After a slump during the COVID-19 pandemic,
17、the four key consumer goods industries food and beverages,fashion,personal and home care,and luxury are expected to be worth USD 14 trillion in 2023.As a whole,these four industries are expected to see a CAGR of around seven percent through 2030.AHowever,in Western markets the outlook is not as posi
18、tive.The fashion industry and the personal and home care industry are expected to show CAGRs of five percent between 2022 and 2025 in Europe and North America,and the food and beverages industry should achieve a CAGR of six percent.With a CAGR of seven percent,the luxury industry has the highest exp
19、ected growth for this period.Growth is expected to be similar or slightly lower for the entire period 2022-30,with the food and beverages industry seeing the strongest CAGR at six percent.B1 The rules of the gameare changing.Sustainability is a matter of survival.Companies that fail to respond to th
20、e sustaina-bility challenge will be punished by both consumers and institutions,and may even face a threat to their survival.5The sustainability game|Think:ActThese growth rates,mainly driven by increasing population sizes rather than increasing consumption,should be a wake-up call for companies.Gro
21、wth will slow down further,especially in Western economies.If players want to continue to expand,they can no longer rely on a positive underlying momentum in the market.More likely,we will see fierce fighting over market shares as everyone competes for the same piece of the pie.In the context of thi
22、s battle,companies often overlook sustainability as a crucial factor in consumers purchase decisions.Sustainability is highly valued by shoppers,and companies with good environmental credentials increasingly enjoy a strong competitive advantage.Indeed,sustainability is often the X factor,the trait t
23、hat makes a company stand out from the crowd and the thing that convinces shoppers to choose one brand over another.This is especially true where companies become more sustainable by means of innovation and new business models rather than through actions that lead to an inevitable increase in prices
24、.When it comes to acting on sustainability,however,we advise caution.Making a show of caring about sustainability without actually being sustainable can have dramatic consequences.New regulations are being developed to combat greenwashing,and consumers especially Gen Z are particularly sensitive to
25、any hint of dishonesty when it comes to companies environmental commitments.To secure competitive advantages,companies need a holistic sustainability roadmap that encompasses the entire value chain,from growing and sourcing raw materials to the production of products,their sale,and their use and dis
26、posal Source:Euromonitor;Statista;Roland Berger AOutlook for global consumer goods MARKET SIZE BY INDUSTRY,USD TRILLION,2019-30201911.813.0202214.7202416.9202619.5202822.6203012.5202113.9202315.8202519.0202721.0202911.72020Food&BeveragesFashionPersonal&Home Care74%74%74%74%73%72%72%72%72%72%74%70%17
27、%17%18%17%18%19%19%19%19%19%18%21%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%7%6%6%3%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%Luxury+7%Data updated with most recent dataset from Statista for F&B and Euromonitor for the rest.Numbers may not add up to 100%due to rounding.6 Think:Act|The sustainability gameBOutlook for Europe and North America C
28、AGR SIZE BY INDUSTRY,2022-30Source:Euromonitor;Statista;Roland Bergerby consumers.Businesses must consider sustainability in each of these steps.That is a challenging undertaking,especially in the case of complex supply chains.In short,the way consumer goods companies do business requires a major re
29、think.The competitive paradigm is shifting and sustainability has become a key value.Businesses with conventional approaches risk losing market share.Those that take no action at all risk disappearing from the market altogether.Consumers and governments are still struggling to find a common understa
30、nding of what sustainability is.Which precise criteria should we use to judge whether a business model is sustainable or not?Does it depend on the origin of the ingredients or raw materials,say,the companys efforts to reduce emissions,or the products extended lifetime?Is it about consuming less or r
31、eusing more?Refurbishing existing products or disposing of them properly?Whichever environmental criteria ultimately establish themselves,it is clear that sustainability will disrupt consumer goods markets in the coming years.Indeed,the disruption has already begun,with consumer awareness about envi
32、ronmental issues increasing noticeably as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.The reshaping of the retail landscape will happen whether companies like it or not,and irrespective of how fast or slow individual businesses are in reacting to it.It is therefore well worth taking a systematic look at the t
33、wo key drivers of sustainability:pressure from consumers and pressure from regulators.We turn to this in the following chapter.202220252030Fashion Industry5%5%202220252030Luxury Industry5%7%202220252030Personal&Home Care Industry5%4%2022202520306%Food&Beverages Industry6%7The sustainability game|Thi
34、nk:Act2 Consumer and regulatorypressure is growing.We provide transparency.TWO MAIN FACTORS are currently driving sustainability:pressure from consumers and pressure from governments,the latter expressed in the form of regulation and taxation.This puts players at a severe business and compliance ris
35、k.Now,more than ever,they need transparency over consumer goods markets and how they are being reshuffled.With this in mind,we have devised two indices a Consumer Pressure Index,indicating how strongly consumers are pushing for action on sustainability,and a Regulatory Pressure Index,indicating how
36、much pressure governments are prepared to exercise to achieve these goals.CONSUMER PRESSURE INDEXWe developed the Consumer Pressure Index(CPI)using AI-based sentiment,which systematically identifies,extracts,quantifies and studies affective states and subjective information from posts on social medi
37、a and similar.This allows us to detect the overall tonality of an entire text as well as particular attitudes towards a specific topic,giving insights into the importance of and attitudes towards that topic.We analyzed around 84 million conversations across the 14 countries and four core industries
38、for risk(percentage of critical consumers demanding action from industry),relevance of sustainability(percentage of ESG topics within industries)and willingness to pay for sustainable products(percentage of consumers who mention price and are positive about it).We calculate the CPI for each industry
39、 in each country by weighting these three factors,with risk playing the biggest role,weighted at 60 percent.By weighting all four industry CPIs for one country based on industry size,we can calculate the CPI on a country level.Our Consumer Pressure Index is unique in terms of both its methodology(se
40、e box)and the depth of insight it provides.For the first time,it offers a truly holistic view of consumer sentiment(relevance,topics,impact on willingness to pay)overall and in specific industries.It is also unique in its range,covering 14 different countries that together account for 80 percent of
41、the total consumer goods and retail market:the United States,United Kingdom,Netherlands,Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Saudi Arabia,United Arab Emirates,India,China,Japan,Brazil and Mexico.CPILuxuryCPI Personal&Home CareCPIFashionCPIF&B60%10%30%Consumer Pressure Index Risk:%of critical consumers who are
42、 demanding action from industrySustainability relevance:%of ESG topics within industriesWillingness to pay:%of consumers who speak about price and are positive towards itSource:Symanto;Roland Berger58%34%8%1%Overall country CPI8 Think:Act|The sustainability gameINSIGHTS INTO CONSUMER PRESSURE#1 Cons
43、umer pressure is greatest in the fashionindustry,personal and home care industry and food and beverages industryThe CPI is medium or high in the fashion industry,food and beverages industry and personal and home care industry for almost all 14 countries.Only in the luxury industry is significantly l
44、ower consumer pressure found.Where the CPI is high,consumers are demanding increased action from companies,especially in the areas of biodiversity and land use,community relations and human capital development.The Netherlands has the highest overall CPI,with the highest CPI in three of the four anal
45、yzed industries(luxury,fashion,and personal and home care).Only in the food and beverages industry was the highest CPI measured for India for cultural,traditional and religious reasons,and this industry has the strongest weighting in the overall CPI calculation.CPIs are highest across almost all Wes
46、tern European countries and the United States and lowest in Brazil and Japan.CSource:Symanto;Roland BergerCWestern Europe has the highest CPIsCONSUMER PRESSURE INDICES BY COUNTRY AND INDUSTRYEuropeAmericasMiddle EastAsiaCOUNTRIESINDUSTRIESUKFranceItalySpainNetherlandsGermanyBrazilMexicoUnited States
47、IndiaChinaJapanUAESaudi ArabiaF&BFashionPers.&Home CareLuxuryHigh:CPI 8Low:CPI 4Low:Relevance 3 4Low:RPI 3 50%EnvironmentalSocialGovernanceLow:WTP 8Low:CPI 8Low:CPI 50%EnvironmentalSocialGovernanceLow:WTP 8Low:WTP 6Medium:WTP 6 8SpainMexicoBrazilUAEIndia10.05.24.83.99.45.04.43.36.65.04.22.82.61.826
48、Think:Act|The sustainability gameIn our vision for the year 2030,the luxury industry will use more sustainable raw MATERIALS such as vegan leather options,artificial silk,animal-friendly silk and artificial diamonds.The origins of products and raw materials will be traceable with the help of technol
49、ogies.Brands will offer on-demand or customized PRODUCTION,reducing waste and CO2 emissions while upholding scarcity.Production will be taken as close as possible to the consumer.We predict that TRANSPORTATION and RECYCLING will become an important part of the value chain,providing consumers with fu
50、ll transparency through the use of RFID(radio-frequency identification)or other systems.Transportation will be mainly by sea or road,rather than air.At the POINT OF SALE,companies will offer customization such as 3D prints and batch size one.Dedicated ESG personnel at store level will accompany cust