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1、Oil2023Analysis and forecast to 2028The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies t
2、hat will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.ie
3、a.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.All rights reserved.International Energy Agency Websi
4、te:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kin
5、gdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineRevised version,June 2023Information notice found:www.iea.org/correctionsOil 2023 Ab
6、stract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The global energy crisis has moved energy security to the fore of the international policy agenda and boosted the momentum behind the deployment of clean energy technologies.Investment in clean energy is accelerating at a faster rate than for fossil fuels,helpin
7、g bring peak oil demand into view.Oil 2023,the IEAs medium-term outlook,provides a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2028.The report examines how a stronger drive by governments towards a low-emissions future and changes in behaviour will impact oil market
8、fundamentals in the coming years.Oil 2023 explores some of the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead,including upstream investment,sources of new supply growth,spare capacity and shifting patterns of oil demand.It also provides insights as to how these changing dynamics will affect refining an
9、d trade flows.Oil 2023 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security.The principal authors are,in alphabetical order,Yu
10、ya Akizuki,Alexander Bressers,Joel Couse,Ciarn Healy,Peg Mackey,David Martin,Jacob Messing and Jenny Thomson.Julien Canu and Luis Fernando Rosa provided statistical support and essential research assistance.Toril Bosoni,head of OIMD,led the analysis and edited the Report.Keisuke Sadamori,director of
11、 the IEAs Directorate of Energy Markets and Security,provided expert guidance and advice.Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorial assistance.The report benefited greatly from contributions from other experts within the IEA,including Yasmine Arsalane,Alessandro Blasi,Laura Cozzi,Paolo Frankl,Ti
12、m Gould,Paul Grimal,Jrme Hilaire,Christophe McGlade,Jeremy Moorhouse,Apostolos Petropoulos and Gianluca Tonolo.The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launch support.Particular thanks go to Jad Mouawad and his team;Astrid Dumond,Oliver Joy,Jethro Mullen,Therese Walsh and Is
13、abelle Nonain-Semelin.Diane Munro edited the report.Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.8 Demand.11 Global summary.11 Fundamentals.14 Energy transition gathers pace.17 Petrochemicals power ahead,China takes centre stage.26 Aviation and marine demand g
14、rowth resumes.30 Demand developments by region.33 Supply.42 Global summary.42 Investment and exploration.47 OPEC+supply.51 Non-OPEC+supply.65 Refining.80 Global summary.80 Refining capacity.82 Refining industry adapts to demand changes.86 Regional developments.90 Global oil trade.100 Global summary.
15、100 Crude oil balances and trade.102 Product balances and trade.107 Tables.112 Abbreviations and acronyms.124 Units of measure.125 List of figures Annual oil demand growth,2022-2028.11 Global cumulative oil demand growth by fuel,2022-2028.12 Impact of alternative oil price forecast scenarios,2023-20
16、28.17 Cumulative transport fuels demand growth,2022-2028.18 New EVs and improved efficiency will avoid 7.8 mb/d of extra oil demand,2022-2028.19 Global annual EV sales by country/region,2010-2028.20 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Oil use in power generation by region,2022-2028.22 O
17、ECD and non-OECD mobility indexes,March 2020 to October 2023.24 Estimated teleworking impact on oil demand,2019-2028.25 World oil demand and petrochemical sector contribution.27 Annual olefins oil-based capacity change,(primary output),2019-2028.28 Annual change in oil-based olefins feedstock use by
18、 region and by product,2019-2028.29 Global air traffic,2019-2023(weekly).30 International marine bunker demand impact of efficiency gains,2022-2028.32 Global cumulative oil demand growth by region,2022-2028.33 North America cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.34 Gasoline versus diesel
19、in European ICE car fleet,2006-2028.35 Europe cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.36 China cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.37 India cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.39 Global oil supply capacity and demand forecast,year-on-year change,2022-2028.42 OPE
20、C+spare crude oil production capacity.43 Oil supply changes for select countries from 2022-2028.46 Middle East regains market share over the medium term.47 Global oil and gas upstream capital spending.48 Oil and gas capital spending by selected companies.48 Conventional production additions by sanct
21、ion year.49 Conventional discoveries have slowed markedly over the last decade.50 OPEC crude oil production capacity change 2023-2028.52 Saudi Arabia estimated crude oil production and capacity.53 Iraq,UAE help drive OPEC+supply gains.54 Kuwait estimated crude oil production and capacity,2018-2028.5
22、6 Iran crude oil production,1986-2028.57 Russia estimated total oil supply,2021-2028.59 OPEC+Africa crude oil production capacity(y-o-y change).61 Libya estimated crude oil production and capacity.63 Mexico total production and contribution by new fields.64 US growth expectations moderated by shifti
23、ng investment strategies.66 Productivity increases have plateaued or reversed in key LTO basins.67 Canadian oil supply by product,2018-2028.70 Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin takeaway capacity.71 Bzios and Mero drive Brazilian growth through the decade.72 Guyana growth driven by recent discoverie
24、s in the Stabroek block.73 Investments in Norway delay but do not offset North Sea decline.75 Asian oil supply by country,2018-2028.77 Africa oil production by country,2018-2028.79 Slowing demand growth raises risk of further refining industry closures.80 Refined product demand growth curtailed by c
25、ompeting sources of supply.81 Asia dominates 2022-2028 capacity expansions as Atlantic Basin closures diminish.82 After the first fall in 30 years in 2021,refining capacity growth rebounds.83 Net product exporters dominate refining capacity building,2022-2028(mb/d).84 Firm and proposed refinery capa
26、city additions.85 Regional and country refinery throughputs,2012-2028.86 Change in global refining yields,2022-2028.88 Record refining margins posted in 2022,especially for US Gulf Coast.89 China refining capacity overtook United States in 2022,throughputs in 2025.90 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|
27、7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Mexican refinery capacity,throughput,crude production and exports.91 OECD Europe refinery capacity,throughput,crude imports and product exports.92 European refinery throughputs and free emission allocations,2013-2022.93 North,West and South and East African refinery crude throughput
28、 and net crude exports.94 China refinery capacity,throughput,net crude imports,and net product exports.96 India refinery capacity and crude runs,net crude import and products exports.98 Russian oil exports,January 2022-May 2023.100 World crude and condensate balances by region,2019-2028.101 Shares i
29、n uptake of global volumes from net crude exporting regions.102 Crude oil balances by region,2012-2028.103 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus in Atlantic Basin by region.105 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus East of Suez by region.106 World gasoline and naphtha balances,2022-2028.109 World midd
30、le distillate balances(diesel,gasoil,jet fuel and kerosene),2022-2028.110 World fuel oil balance,2022-2028.111 List of boxes How green is the growth?.44 Shale growth at risk from lower prices,higher costs.68 Biofuels to provide 10%of new liquid fuel supply growth to 2028.73 Chinese policy key to bal
31、ancing global fuel markets.97 List of tables Global oil demand by product(mb/d),2019-2028.13 Global oil demand by region(mb/d),2019-2028.14 Real GDP growth assumptions.15 Oil demand by product(mb/d):North America,2019-2028.34 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Europe,2019-2028.35 Oil demand by product(mb/d
32、):Asia Pacific,2019-2028.36 Oil demand by product(mb/d):China,2019-2028.37 Oil demand by product(mb/d):India,2019-2028.38 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Central and South America,2019-2028.39 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Africa,2019-2028.40 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Middle East,2019-2028.40 Oil demand
33、 by product(mb/d):Eurasia,2019-2028.41 OPEC crude oil production capacity(mb/d).58 Total Non-OPEC+supply(mb/d).65 Regional refinery capacity and utilisation 2022-2028.83 Oil demand and call on refined products(mb/d),2022-2028.87 Middle East refinery capacity expansions(kb/d),2022-2028.95 Oil 2023 Ex
34、ecutive summary PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary World oil markets reset Global oil markets are gradually recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the Russian Federations(hereafter“Russia”)invasion of Ukraine.Benchmark crud
35、e oil prices are back below pre-war levels and refined product cracks have now come off all-time highs after rising supplies coincided with a marked slowdown in oil demand growth in advanced economies.Moreover,an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows and two consecutive emergency stock rel
36、eases by IEA member countries in 2022 allowed industry inventories to rebuild,easing market tensions.While the market could significantly tighten in the coming months as OPEC+production cuts temper the upswing in global oil supplies,the outlook improves over our 2022-28 forecast period.Russias invas
37、ion of Ukraine sparked a surge in oil prices and brought security of supply concerns to the fore,helping accelerate deployment of clean energy technologies.At the same time,upstream investments in 2023 are expected to reach to their highest levels since 2015.Our projections assume major oil producer
38、s maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows.A resulting spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d,concentrated in the Middle East,should ensure that world oil markets are adequately supplied throughout our forecast period.As always,there are a number of risks to our for
39、ecasts that could affect market balances over the medium term.Uncertain global economic conditions,the direction of OPEC+decisions and Beijings refining industry policy will play a crucial role in the balancing of crude oil and product markets.Energy crisis accelerates transition away from oil Based
40、 on existing policy settings,growth in world oil demand is set to slow markedly during the 2022-28 forecast period as the energy transition advances.While a peak in oil demand is on the horizon,continued increases in petrochemical feedstock and air travel means that overall consumption continues to
41、grow throughout the forecast.We estimate that global oil demand reaches 105.7 mb/d in 2028,up 5.9 mb/d compared with 2022 levels.Crucially,however,demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels which excludes biofuels,petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses-is on course to peak at 81.6 mb/d
42、 in 2028,the final year of our forecast.Growth is set to reverse Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.after 2023 for gasoline and after 2026 for transport fuels overall.These trends are the result of a pivot towards lower-emission sources triggered by the global energy crisis,as well as p
43、olicy emphasis on energy efficiency improvements and the rapid growth in electric vehicle(EV)sales.The Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)was the last major economy to lift its stringent Covid-19 restrictions at the end of 2022,leading to a post-pandemic oil demand rebound in the first half
44、of 2023.But demand growth in China slows markedly from 2024 onwards,and global oil demand growth shrivels from 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to just 400 kb/d by 2028.Nevertheless,burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced ec
45、onomies.For total oil demand to decline sooner,in line with the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario),additional policy measures and behavioural changes would be required.The petrochemical sector will remain the key driver of global oil demand growth,with liquified petroleum gas(LPG
46、),ethane and naphtha accounting for more than 50%of the rise between 2022 and 2028 and nearly 90%of the increase compared with pre-pandemic levels.The aviation sector will expand strongly as airline travel returns to normal following the reopening of borders.At the start of 2023,jet fuel demand was
47、still lagging 2019 levels by more than 1 mb/d,or 13%.It quickly accelerates and contributes the highest growth across all products over the forecast period,increasing by a substantial 2 mb/d.However,efficiency improvements and behavioural changes will slow the pace of growth so consumption will only
48、 surpass 2019 levels by 2027.Non-OPEC+producers lead oil supply capacity growth Global upstream oil and gas investment is on track to increase by an estimated 11%in 2023 to USD 528 billion,compared with USD 474 billion in 2022.While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflati
49、on,this level of investment,if sustained,would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report.Based on the current pipeline of projects underway and US light tight oil(LTO)growth expectations,we see 5.9 mb/d of net additional production capacity brought online by 2028.Despit
50、e easing from 1.9 mb/d on average over 2022-23 to just 300 kb/d by 2028,new capacity building still moves in line with projected demand growth over the forecast period.Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+alliance(non-OPEC+)dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,with a 5.1 mb/d supply boo