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1、 China Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)Investment Report 2022 Dr.Christoph NEDOPIL Green Finance&Development Center,FISF Fudan University Shanghai,January 2023 Page 2 This brief is produced by the Green Finance&Development Center(GFDC)of the Fanhai International School of Finance at Fudan University,Sh
2、anghai,P.R.China.The brief aims to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on topics related to the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)to encourage discussion and debate.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s)and should not be a
3、ttributed in any manner to FISF or Fudan University,to its affiliated organizations,or to members of its Board of Executive Directors.Citation and the use of material presented in this brief should take into account this provisional character.For information regarding GFDC Briefs,please contact the
4、Director Dr.Christoph Nedopil.Please quote as:Nedopil,Christoph(January 2023):“China Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)Investment Report 2022”,Green Finance&Development Center,FISF Fudan University,Shanghai Contact:For inquiries,please contact the Green Finance&Development Center infogreenfdc.org 2023 Gr
5、een Finance&Development Center,FISF All rights reserved Page 3 China Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)Investment Report 2022 Key findings BRI finance and investments is steady in 2022 at USD67.8 billion,compared to USD68.7 billion in 2021;Investments as a share of BRI engagement reached record levels at
6、 48%,up from 29%in 2021 and compared to an average of 40%;Since 2013,cumulative BRI engagement amounts to USD962 billion,about USD573 billion in construction contracts,and USD389 billion in non-financial investments;New coal-related projects and plants were announced in 2022,including coal mining in
7、 Indonesia;Energy-related engagement at lowest levels at USD24.1 billion compared to strong technology manufacturing engagement,e.g.,a USD 7.6 billion investment in a Gigafactory Fossil fuels constituted about 63%of Chinese BRI overseas energy engagement particularly in gas pipelines,possibly underm
8、ining global climate goals;Green energy engagement(solar,wind,hydro)in 2022 increased 50%:investments by USD0.1 billion to USD2.7 billion;construction projects by USD1.9 billion to USD5.3 billion;14 countries saw a 100%drop in BRI engagement,including Angola,Nepal,Peru,Russia,and Sri Lanka;Engagemen
9、ts with Sub-Saharan Africa and West Asia dropped to lowest levels,while Arab and Middle Eastern countries could expand their share of Chinese engagement;Major beneficiary countries of Chinese investments were Hungary(USD7.6 billion),Saudi Arabia,and Singapore.The Philippines and Argentina were main
10、beneficiaries of Chinese construction engagement;Average deal size for construction projects was the smallest since 2013,dropping from USD496 million in 2021 to USD330 million in 2022;average deal size for investment projects increased,driven by few large transactions,such as battery producer CATLs
11、USD7.6 billion investment in Hungary;BRI investments in 2022 were unusually dominated by private sector enterprises,including CATL and Alibaba,while construction contracts were dominated by state-owned enterprises(SOEs);In 2022,global FDI into emerging economies developed similar to Chinas BRI engag
12、ement with a mixed bag of growth and decline;For the 2023,further rebound of Chinese BRI engagement is possible with a removal of COVID-related travel restrictions particularly relevant for Chinese developers;Potential future engagements can be expected in five project types:manufacturing in new tec
13、hnologies(e.g.,batteries),trade-enabling infrastructure(including pipelines,roads),ICT(e.g.,data centers),resource-backed deals(e.g.,mining,oil,gas),high visibility or strategic projects(e.g.,railway).Page 4 Content Chinas finance and investments in the Belt and Road initiative(BRI).5 Regional and c
14、ountry analysis of Chinese BRI engagement.8 Sector trends of BRI engagement.10 Energy-related engagement in the BRI at their lowest level.12 Transport engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative.16 Major players in BRI investments.17 Chinas BRI investments in a global comparison.18 Outlook for 2023 f
15、oreign direct investments.19 Outlook for Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)Finance and Investments.20 Appendix:About the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).24 Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative.25 About the author.26 About the Green Finance&Development Center.27 List of figures Figure 1:Chinas BRI cons
16、truction engagement(top)and investments(bottom)2013-2022,cumulative(right).6 Figure 2:Share of construction and investment engagement in the BRI.6 Figure 3:Deal size of Chinese engagement in the BRI:left,for construction projects;right investments(Source:Green Finance&Development Center,FISF Fudan U
17、niversity,based on AEI data).7 Figure 4:Chinese overseas investment(top)and construction engagement(bottom)2013 2022 in BRI versus non-BRI countries.8 Figure 5:Chinese engagement in different BRI regions.9 Figure 6:Trends of Chinese BRI engagement across different countries 2022(top)and comparison o
18、f 2021 and 2022(bottom).10 Figure 7:BRI investments in different sectors.11 Figure 8:Chinese BRI engagement in different sectors through construction and investment(2013-2022).12 Figure 9:Chinese total energy engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)2013-2022 13 Figure 10:Chinese energy engage
19、ment through investment and construction in the BRI 2013-2022 by subsector.15 Figure 11:Chinese energy engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)by country in 2021.16 Figure 12:Chinese engagement in BRI transport infrastructure 2013-2022.17 Figure 13:FDI in oil&gas extraction,and R&D projects i
20、n 2022(Source:fDi Markets).19 Figure 14:5-step framework for accelerating green BRI investments after COVID19.21 Page 5 Chinas finance and investments in the Belt and Road initiative(BRI)Chinese engagement through financial investments and contractual cooperation for 2022 in the 147 countries of the
21、 Belt and Road Initiative1 was about USD67.8 billion based on over 200 deals.This about equal to Chinas BRI engagement in 2021 at USD68.7 billion.Of this engagement,about USD32.5 billion was through investments,and USD35.3 billion through construction contracts(partly financed by Chinese loans).Chin
22、as overall engagement shows a steady development since 2020 from the onset of COVID-19(see Figure 1).Cumulative BRI engagement since the announcement of the BRI in 2013 is USD962 billion,about USD573 in construction contracts,and USD389 in non-financial investments.About the data:In January 2023,the
23、 government owned newspaper China Daily released new BRI engagement statistics,likely based on Ministry of Commerce(MOFCOM)data covering the period of January to November 2022.2 According to these data,Chinese enterprises invested about USD19.6 billion in non-financial direct investments in countrie
24、s“along the Belt and Road”in 2022(a year-on-year increase of 6.5%).Furthermore,the value of newly signed projects was USD98.19 billion.The MOFCOM data usually focus on 55 countries that are“along the Belt and Road”meaning on a corridor from China to Europe including South Asia.3 For this report,the
25、definition of BRI countries includes 147 countries that had signed a cooperation agreement with China to work under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative by December 2022.We base our data on the China Global Investment Tracker4 and our own data research at the Green Finance&Development Cente
26、r affiliated with FISF Fudan University,Shanghai.The data include deals with a size of over USD100 million and we count BRI engagements as those in countries that had an MoU with China to cooperate under the BRI(thus,if the Syrian Republic signed a BRI MoU in 2022,we also count prior investments int
27、o Syria as BRI investments).As with most data,they tend to be imperfect and need regular updating.1 https:/greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/2https:/ 3 https:/ 4 http:/www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/.Page 6 Figure 1:Chinas BRI construction engagement(top)and inv
28、estments(bottom)2013-2022,cumulative(right)Share of investments in Chinas BRI highest on record The share of Chinese engagement in the BRI through investments compared to construction has seen its highest levels in 2022:investments reached about 48%of BRI engagement compared to 29%in 2021.Many of th
29、e construction contracts are financed through loans provided by Chinese financial institutions and/or contractors with the project often receiving guarantees through the host countrys government institutions(see Figure 2).Figure 2:Share of construction and investment engagement in the BRI Investment
30、 deal size is getting larger,construction smaller The average deal size for investments has increased from about USD444 million in 2021 to USD650 million in 2022.This is the highest value since 2019.Compared to the peak in 2014,the investment deal size is 21%smaller.Page 7 For construction projects,
31、the deal size in 2022 was the lowest since the BRI was announced in 2013,with about USD321 million in 2022 compared to USD496 million in 2021(see Figure 3).A reason seems to be that some large investment deals were resource backed(e.g.,mining,oil,gas)as well as significant investments into battery p
32、roduction in Hungary driving up average values.In contrast,construction projects tended to be smaller,possibly as they rely on sovereign guarantees that became harder to secure due to tighter recipient government budgets and adjusted risk management models of Chinese financial institutions in the gl
33、obal economic uncertainty.Figure 3:Deal size of Chinese engagement in the BRI:left,for construction projects;right investments(Source:Green Finance&Development Center,FISF Fudan University,based on AEI data)BRI countries continue to significantly outperform non-BRI countries Chinese total engagement
34、 through construction and investment activities in the BRI in 2022 were about USD50 billion higher than in non-BRI countries:in investment deals,BRI countries outperformed non-BRI countries by USD21 billion;in construction engagement,BRI countries outperformed non-BRI countries by USD30 billion.Page
35、 8 Figure 4:Chinese overseas investment(top)and construction engagement(bottom)2013 2022 in BRI versus non-BRI countries Regional and country analysis of Chinese BRI engagement Strong growth in East Asia,as well as in Middle Eastern countries,and significant slump in Sub-Saharan African countries Ch
36、inese BRI engagement was not evenly distributed among all regions.BRI countries in East Asia saw a 151%increase in Chinese investments and 76%increase in construction contracts and became the region became the dominant recipient(34%of the total)for Chinese engagement.Middle Eastern countries also ex
37、panded their cooperation with China and received about 23%of Chinese BRI engagement in 2022(up from 16.5%)(see Figure 5)and about 21%of Chinese investment volume twice the share of 2021.Contrary,Sub-Saharan Africa saw their highest drop of Chinas engagement in both construction(-44%)and investment(-
38、65%)compared to 2021.Similarly,West Asia saw significant drops in Chinese engagement.Page 9 Figure 5:Chinese engagement in different BRI regions Chinas financing and investment spread across 54 BRI countries in 2022,with 26 countries receiving investments and 47 with construction engagement.The coun
39、try with the highest construction volume in 2022 was the Philippines,with about USD3.3 billion,followed by Argentina(about USD3.3 billion)and Indonesia(USD2.5 billion).Regarding BRI investments,Hungary was the single largest recipient with about USD7.6 billion in investments,followed by Saudi Arabia
40、(USD5.6 billion)and Singapore(about USD 2.5 billion).14 countries saw a 100%drop of BRI engagement compared to 2021,including Russia5,Angola,Sri Lanka,Nepal,and Peru.Chinas engagement in Pakistan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)dropped by about 34%(see Figure 6).The countries with the
41、largest growth of BRI engagement were Hungary(+6,233%),Malaysia(+877%),Philippines(+578%),Cambodia(+371%),and Argentina(+371%).5 Some sources(e.g.,https:/ that Chinese investments into Russia had increased to 450 million USD in the first 8 months of 2022.No data could be found substantiating that cl
42、aim.Page 10 Figure 6:Trends of Chinese BRI engagement across different countries 2022(top)and comparison of 2021 and 2022(bottom)Sector trends of BRI engagement The focus of Chinas overseas BRI engagement continued to be in infrastructure,particularly in energy(36%)and transport(18%),up from a combi
43、ned value of 60%in 2021.In 2022,particularly the finance and technology sector experienced a significant growth of engagement of 3,450%and 7,536%respectively compared to 2021(see Figure 7).A reason for the expansion is the significant expansion of technology manufacturing.For example,in August,China
44、s largest battery producer CATL announced it would build a USD7.6 billion 100 GWh battery plant.This would be Europes largest battery plant and CATLs largest overseas investment.Similarly,also non-BRI countries saw significant battery-production investments.Germany,for example,saw an expansion of Sv
45、olts engagement to build a second battery cell plant close to Teslas factory in Page 11 Brandenburg(close to Berlin).Also,the United States saw engagement by the battery producer Envision,which invested USD700-800 million to build a 30 GWh factory in South California to supply German car producer BM
46、W.Figure 7:BRI investments in different sectors While the metals and mining sector slowed,it was nevertheless the fourth largest sector with about USD6.7 in engagement.Metals and mining remains of strategic importance particularly for minerals related to the green transition(e.g.,lithium)and batteri
47、es for electric vehicles,particularly in African and Latin American countries for mining and Europe for batteries.When distinguishing Chinese BRI engagement in different sectors between investment and construction,data show that engagement through investment increased significantly as a share in 202
48、2 from an average of about 25%in the years 2013-2022 to about 46%in 2022.Metals and mining,meanwhile,constitute the second largest investment sector for Chinese engagement in the countries of the BRI(see Figure 8).Page 12 Figure 8:Chinese BRI engagement in different sectors through construction and
49、investment(2013-2022)Energy-related engagement in the BRI at their lowest level Chinese engagement related to the energy sector constitutes the largest share of Chinas BRI engagement.In 2022,total engagement in the energy sector reached USD24.1 billion which is the lowest level of energy engagement
50、since the launch of the BRI in 2013.This compares,for example,to USD25.3 billion engagement in 2021 and USD26.2 billion in 2020.In 2022,most energy engagement supported gas-related projects(40%),followed by solar and wind(26%)and oil(16%).Coal(as described in the next section)saw renewed engagement