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1、 EYE ON THE MARKET ANNUAL ENERGY PAPER|13TH EDITION Growing Pains:The Renewable Transition in Adolescence Renewables are growing but dont always behave the way you want them to.This years topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills,how grid decarbonization is out
2、pacing electrification,the longterm oil demand outlook,the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power,the scramble for critical minerals,the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps,the transmission quagmire,energy from municipal waste,carbon sequestration,a wh
3、ydrogen update,the Russia-China energy partnership,methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore,for now.By Michael Cembalest Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P.Morgan Asset&Wealth Management EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P.MORGAN 13th annual ener
4、gy paper March 28,2023 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE:NOT FDIC INSURED NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF,OR GUARANTEED BY,JPMORGAN CHASE BANK,N.A.OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS,INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED Growing Pains:The Renewable Transition in Adol
5、escence 2023 Eye on the Market energy paper As the renewable transition hits its teenage years,its time to take stock of what has been accomplished so far:“Clean tech”is outpacing fossil fuel investment even before new US/European energy bills Global wind+solar generation exceeded nuclear for the fi
6、rst time in 2021 The IEA projects peak global fossil fuel demand this decade even under its slower transition case Projected renewable capacity additions of 2,500 GW over the next five years would match the prior 20 The pace of EV sales,residential heat pump adoption and US battery plant build-outs
7、has increased Hybrid solar-storage projects are becoming more competitive with gas peaker plants China 2022 renewable capacity additions=US,Europe,India,Southeast Asia and Latin America combined Economies of scale:as illustrated below,the IEA has consistently underestimated solar capacity additions
8、Even so,decarbonization of energy use will be a gradual process.After$6.3 trillion spent on renewable energy and another$3.3 trillion spent on electricity networks since 2005,global energy use is still 80%reliant on fossil fuels,from a low of 70%in Europe to 86%in EM ex-China.The global measure has
9、declined by just 5%since 2005 due to challenges electrifying industrial,commercial,residential and transport energy.Theres also too much focus on fossil fuel shares;what matters even more is the amount of fossil fuels used(chart,lower left).For the most part,renewable energy displaces fossil fuels t
10、hat power HVAC systems in homes and office buildings.Renewables also decarbonize 10%-15%of industrial energy use,and the stock of electric cars,vans,trucks,buses and bikes reduces global oil consumption by 2 mm barrels a day,which is 2%of oil use.But the pillars of modern society(steel,cement,ammoni
11、a,plastics)are still made primarily using fossil fuels,particularly in developing countries to whom the West has outsourced the most energy intensive kinds of manufacturing.0.7x0.8x0.9x1.0 x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.6x201520162017201820192020202120222023Clean tech spending outpacing fossil fuelsRatio,cl
12、ean tech/fossil fuel capital spending by yearSource:S&P Global,IEA,JPMAM.2023.IEAS&P GlobalClean tech:renewable power plus grids and storage(S&P);plus EVs,biofuels,nuclear and CCS(IEA)USEUChinaEM ex China50%60%70%80%90%100%657075808590950005101520Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy,JPMAM.20
13、22.Fossil fuel share of primary energy since 1965%of global primary energy consumption from coal,oil and nat gasNuclearadoption eraSolar/windera beginsPre-existinghydropower250300350400450500550600650700199020002010202020302040EIA,High oil demand/slower transition,Oct 2021EIA,Low oil demand/faster t
14、ransition,Oct 2021IEA,Stated Policies,Jan 2023IEA,Announced Pledges,Jan 2023Future global fossil fuel demand:depends who you askExajoulesSource:Energy Information Admin.,Intl Energy Agency,JPMAM.2022050100150200250300350200020052010201520202025203020352040Actual solar additions2022 iea2021 iea2020 i
15、ea2019 iea2018 iea2017 iea2016 iea2015 iea2014 iea2013 iea2012 iea2011 iea2010 iea2009 ieaIEA consistently underestimated solar capacity growth GW of global annual solar additions vs IEA 10-year forecastsSource:Carbon Brief,BNEF.2022.IEA=International Energy Agency.Note:solar=2%of primary energy use
16、 in 2022 EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P.MORGAN 13th annual energy paper March 28,2023 2 Evidence pointing to the need for a more rapid transition appears below:rising ocean temperatures and sea levels,falling ice sheet mass,rising greenhouse gas concentrations and rising emissions despite i
17、mproving CO2 intensity.So lets look at the transitions primary obstacles:permitting delays for generation and transmission,frequent lack of eminent domain in the West,availability of critical minerals and rising resource nationalism,high cost per unit of energy needed to decarbonize industrial heat,
18、backup thermal power and storage costs required to accompany intermittent wind and solar power,challenges for grid managers integrating thousands of new wind and solar projects,the long useful lives of existing machines/vehicles/furnaces and the time it takes for societies to build new“prime movers”
19、(engines and turbines)to utilize new forms of energy.If thats what is constraining the pace of change,I remain totally unconvinced that starving the oil&gas industry of capital will make the transition go any faster,particularly since new pools of capital will step in1 as long as demand for fossil f
20、uels exists.Such an approach could also expose countries to energy shortages that renewables are currently unable to fill.While its energy prices have declined from peak levels,Europe is still paying a heavy price for mismanaging energy supplies while its transition is ongoing.Advice to a handful of
21、 countries with ample oil and gas reserves:the renewable transition is picking up speed,but“dont quit your day job”.As shown on the prior page2,you will need those oil&gas reserves for many years to come unless the world delivers on a set of very ambitious pledges to decarbonize at a totally unprece
22、dented pace.Michael Cembalest,JP Morgan Asset Management 1 Warren Buffett has a$60 bn stake in Chevron&Occidental,offered several billion to buy Dominion gas/transmission assets until anti-trust concerns forced a withdrawal,and owns stakes in Kinder Morgan pipelines.2 EIA 2021 projections on the pri
23、or page precede Russias invasion of Ukraine and European policy responses,as well as the US energy bill.I expect the next EIA release in Sep 2023 to show lower trajectories of fossil fuel use.02040608010012005010015020025030035019551965197519851995200520152025Ocean heat content and sea levelZettajou
24、les,vs 1957 baseline Millimeters,vs 1993 baselineSource:NASA/NOAA.2022.1 ZJ=1021joules.For the last decade,the ocean has been absorbing 10 ZJ of heat per year.which is equal to 20 x annual global primary energy consumptionHeat contentSea level-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00002002 2004 2006 2008
25、2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022Antarctica and Greenland ice sheet massMass variation,gigatonnesSource:NASA.November 2022.GreenlandAntarctica0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.51979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021Carbon dioxideMethaneNitrous oxideChlorofluor
26、ocarbonsHydrochlorofluorocarbonsHydrofluorocarbonsGreenhouse effect:radiative forcing by GHG watts per square meterSource:NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory.2022.EMDMEMDM0.150.250.350.450.550510152025657075808590950005101520Source:BP,Conf.Board,JPMAM.2022.Note:DM=Developed Markets;EM=Emerging Markets
27、.CO2emissions volumes vs intensityCO2,billion tonnes Tonnes of CO2/thousand$2021 GDP EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P.MORGAN 13th annual energy paper March 28,2023 3 Table of Contents Executive Summary:a detailed look at the goals and realities of the energy transition.4 Energy investment upd
28、ate.11 Essential energy charts.12 1 Numbers in,Garbage out:the practical irrelevance of“levelized cost of energy”for wind and solar power.14 2 Crude oil in,refined products out:declining US gasoline demand,rising demand for other oil products.18 3 Into the queue,but not out:the slow pace of grid exp
29、ansion and renewable interconnection.19 4 Resource nationalism in,globalization out:the scramble to reshore production and processing of minerals used in the renewable transition;nuclear power/SMR update.24 5 Energy in,most of the energy out:the economics behind the rise in co-located storage and so
30、lar power.33 6 Garbage in,Energy Out:the benefits and limitations of municipal solid waste as a source of energy,and the ongoing dispute over forest biomass in Europe.35 7 CCS proposals in,mostly thrown out:the hit rate of planned carbon capture&sequestration projects has been low,but that may chang
31、e(a little)with new incentives and economies of scale.38 8 California Dreaming:the improbable reveries of electric planes,nuclear fusion,space-based solar power,direct air carbon capture and fully autonomous car networks.41 Epilogue:How Europe survived the winter of 2022 and what comes next for Russ
32、ia/China.44 Appendix:US methane update as more studies show higher leakage rates than reported EPA data.48 Acronyms ANL:Argonne National Laboratory;bcm:billion cubic meters;BP:British Petroleum;bpd:barrels per day;BTU:British thermal unit;CCS:carbon capture and storage;DACC:direct air carbon capture
33、;E&P:exploration and production;EIA:Energy Information Administration;EPA:Environmental Protection Agency;EV:electric vehicle;FERC:Federal Energy Regulatory Commission;GJ:gigajoule;GW:gigawatt;HVAC:heating,ventilation and air conditioning;HVDC:high-voltage direct current;IEA:International Energy Adm
34、inistration;IRENA:International Renewable Energy Agency;ISO:independent system operator;ITC:investment tax credit;kbd:thousand barrels per day;kt:kilotons;LBNL:Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory;LCOE:levelized cost of energy;LFP:lithium iron phosphate;LNG:liquefied natural gas;MJ:megajoule;MW:meg
35、awatt;NHTSA:National Highway Traffic Safety Administration;NIB:neodymium,iron and boron;NMC:nickel,manganese and cobalt;NREL:National Renewable Energy Laboratory;O&M:operations&maintenance;PPA:Power Purchase Agreement;PV:photovoltaic;REE:rare earth elements;TW:terawatt;TWh:terawatt-hour;USDA:US Depa
36、rtment of Agriculture;USGS:US Geological Survey EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P.MORGAN 13th annual energy paper March 28,2023 4 Executive Summary:a detailed look at the goals and realities of the energy transition The West has set a high bar.In each chart,dotted lines represent annual wind a
37、nd solar capacity additions needed to meet stated targets by 2030,while solid lines show historical capacity additions from all generation sources.In other words,the US and Europe need to sustain new wind and solar additions at a pace equal to historical peak additions,or above them.The goals are pa
38、rticularly ambitious in Germany,whose transition is fraught with electricity price and reliability risk3.As we explain in the sections that follow,constraints related to critical minerals,project siting and grid connection may restrain capacity additions below these targets.Chinas situation is diffe
39、rent.Its stated wind and solar goals are within reach compared to the pace of recent capacity additions.But China needs more than just new wind and solar power,which is why it is building coal as well.In 2022,China approved 106 GW of new coal capacity,the highest figure in 7 years,and which is equal
40、 to the last 5 years of decommissioned coal capacity in the US and Europe combined.3 Germany plans to shutter its last three nuclear plants in April and accelerate its exit from coal to 2030,while adding wind,solar and natural gas plants that can eventually run on hydrogen.At the same time,electrici
41、ty demand is projected to rise by 33%due to increased use of EVs,heat pumps and electrolyzers,requiring Germanys electricity grid to double in size.Germany is already the second-most expensive electricity market in Europe;earlier this year,Bloomberg NEF estimated the cost of Germanys plan at$1 trill
42、ion by 2030.The evidence is stacked against this plan being achieved other than at a very high cost that could accelerate the exodus of German manufacturing.The head of German chemicals trade union Verband der Chemischen Industrie commented that Germany risks“turning from an industrial country into
43、an industrial museum.”In addition,McKinsey estimates that Germanys peak load capacity will fall to 90 GW by 2030 while its peak load demand will rise to 120 GW,creating a large potential 30 GW shortfall.05010015020025030035019811991200120112021All generation sourcesWind and solar onlySource:EIA,Prin
44、ceton(REPEAT),JPMAM.2022.US capacity additions and projectionsGross electricity capacity additions,watts per year per capita2022 Energy bill020406080100120140198019902000201020202030All generation sourcesWind and solar onlySource:European Commission,EIA,JPMAM.2022.European Union capacity additions a
45、nd projectionsGross electricity capacity additions,watts per year per capitaREPowerEU GW target050100150200250300350200220072012201720222027All generation sourcesWind and solar onlySource:Fraunhofer ISE,JPMAM.2022.Germany capacity additions and projectionsGross electricity capacity additions,watts p
46、er year per capita2023 Renewable Energy Sources Act020406080100120140160198019902000201020202030All generation sourcesWind and solar onlySource:SCMP,CREA,EIA,JPMAM.2022.China capacity additions and projectionsGross electricity capacity additions,watts per year per capitaStated GW target25%non-fossil
47、 targetExecutive Summary EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P.MORGAN 13th annual energy paper March 28,2023 5 If these new capacity targets are met and the grid is further decarbonized,CO2 emissions would fall but not achieve the holy grail of decarbonization.The reason:electricity is only 20%-30
48、%of total energy consumption.The holy grail is(a)electrification of energy demand currently met via direct combustion of fossil fuels so it can then be decarbonized,and(b)combustion of renewable or synthetic fuels in place of fossil fuels.As shown below,direct fossil fuel use is substantial across a
49、ll four end-use sectors whether were talking about a developed country like the US or a highly industrialized,developing country like China.Over the last 20 years,the pace of electrification has been slow.The next chart shows electricity as a share of energy consumption as of the year 2000,and as of
50、 2021.A few countries rely on electricity for more than 30%but theyre typically smaller with abundant hydro or geothermal power4.Most larger countries rely on electricity for less than 25%of energy consumption,with small gains of 3%-5%since the new millennium began.4 Smaller countries with high elec