《医药行业连锁药店子行业专题报告-资本盛宴开启.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《医药行业连锁药店子行业专题报告-资本盛宴开启.pdf（32页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、?2015?10?9?O2O?2017?1326?2015-2017?19.2%?5?2015H1?19.4%?18.5%?14.4%?1%?O2O?O2O?O2O?15?O2O?EPS?PE?2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E2016E2017E?50.45 0.98 1.27 1.54 514033?63.19 1.17 1.52 1.94 544133?48.65 1.46 1.76 2.16 33 28 23?wind?2015?10?8?021-20262115?S1010515070002?021-20262139?1.?2015.8.02-8.08?(2015-08-
2、03)2.?(2015-08-03)3.?2015.7.26-8.01?(2015-07-27)4.?(2015-07-22)5.?2015.7.19-7.25?(2015-07-20)6.?2015.7.12-7.18?“?”?(2015-07-15)-2%8%18%28%38%48%58%68%78%88%98%108%118%128%138%148%158%168%14080514082214091114093014102414111214120114121815010815012715021315031115033015041715050715052615061215070215072
3、1?300?.1?.1?.1?.1?.1?.2?.3?.4?.4?.6?O2O?.7?.8?CVS?.10?.13?.13?.15?.16?.18?O2O?.19?.22?.22?.22?.23?.24?1?2005-2015H1?.2?2?.2?3?.2?4?2006-2014?.3?5?2005-2014?.3?6?2006-2014?.3?7?2006-2014?.4?8?.5?9?2014?.5?10?2009-2015?.6?11?.7?12?2014?.7?13?.7?14?.8?15?.8?16?.9?17?CVS?.10?18?CVS?.11?19?CVS 1996-2015?
4、.11?20?CVS?2013?.12?21?CVS?.12?22?CVS?“?”.13?23?CVS?ExtraCare?.13?24?.14?25?.14?26?.15?27?.15?28?.15?29?.15?30?.16?31?.16?32?A?.18?33?.18?34?2013?.20?35?.21?36?.21?1?.1?2?.4?3?.5?4?.5?5?.6?6?O2O?.8?7?.9?8?CVS?.10?9?2014?.16?10?.17?11?.17?12?.17?13?A?.17?14?A?.18?15?2013?.18?16?A?.19?17?2013-2014?10?
5、.19?18?A?O2O?.19?19?.24?20?.25?21?.26?22?.27?1?39.4%?74.20%?55%?2014?6800?O2O?O2O?15?O2O?1?2014?2014?39.43999?15?22.30810?6?44.282623?29.531980?CFDA?GDP?2005?-2014?2?17.2%?2012?2015?12.8%?1?2005-2015H1?CFDA?2?3?CFDA?2014?43.49?3080?1?6000?2014?2011?15.9%20.1%18.2%17.8%15.0%15.7%13.3%11.3%10.0%9.3%0%
6、5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002500300020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015H1?15.4%20.2%21.3%19.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100002000030000400005000060000700002010201220132014?7.60%7.20%6.90%6.70%6.80%2.20%2.20%1.90%1.70%1.70%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%20102011201220132014?3?4?2006-2014?CFDA?5?2005-2014?CFDA?2
7、015?GSP?CFDA?2014?26.35?2013?27.44?3.98%?6?2006-2014?CFDA?3234.536.638.839.942.442.443.1543.497.8%6.1%6.0%2.8%6.3%0.0%1.8%0.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%01020304050200620072008200920102011201220132014?48634112383136333463335931613162300630800100020003000400050006000200520062007200820092010201120122013201419.822.4
8、23.625.326.227.727.127.426.35.5%6.9%3.7%5.8%-2.1%1.2%-4.0%-5%0%5%10%15%051015202530200620072008200920102011201220132014?(?4?CFDA?2006-2014?2014?17.14?8.3%?4266?2014?39.4%?0.8%?40?75%?2014?CR3?92%?2014?28.1%?5?9.7%?10?15.2%?7?2006-2014?CFDA?2?39%75%?401027CR3?7%92%CR10 15.20%96%?2014?9?9?2014?12.212.
9、112.913.613.714.615.315.817.135.1%35.4%35.0%34.3%34.6%36.0%36.6%39.4%30%32%34%36%38%40%05101520200620072008200920102011201220132014?5?3?2014?2014?“?”?2014?“?”?“?”?2015?CFDA?2014?12457?2828?23%?75%?“?”?15%?30%?55%?2014?6800?8?CFDA?9?2014?CFDA?4?/?4.73 5.70 3.99 42.9%?1.12 1.29 1.00 28.4%?1.10 1.27 1.
10、01 25.2%?0.83 0.95 0.58 64.6%?2.41 2.77?-?(?)2.88 3.31 1.43 93.8%?20%20%18%15%13%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%020004000600080001000012000140002010 2011 2012 2013 2014?77%20%23%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%?6?9?11?2013?11?20%?200?10?2009-2015?CFDA?5?2015?2017?65%?90%?50%?30%2020?2014?9?520?9?20%-30%?2015?
11、“?”?32944153570386810981372.531.0%21.3%31.4%23.5%26.5%25.0%00.050.10.150.20.250.30.35020040060080010001200140016002009201020112012201320142015E?7?11?CFDA?12?2014?CFDA?O2O?O2O?O2O?O2O?O2O?13?0100002000030000400005000020102011201220132014?69%22.70%3%5.30%0%20%40%60%80%?13000?43?34000?36000?O2O?8?6?O2O
12、?“?”?30?600?O2O?O2O?1?O2O?O+O?.?.?O+O?2013?OTC?1%?7.8%?Euromonitor?2010?220?30%?2014?12000?80%?1?30%?40%?2014?70?15-20?14?CFDA?15?CFDA?Pharmacy Benefit Management?PBM?PBM?PBM?PBM?14174370010203040506070802010201120122013201460150246050100150200250300201220132014?7?2014 2015E 2016E?16?12457 13827?+11
13、%?15210?+10%?6?2015?”?2019.2%?2828 3111?+10%?3453?+11%?7?1?17?22.5%22.5%22.7%?43.4943.62?+0.3%?43.40?-0.5%?,?PB?PBM?39.4%42.4%?+3%?44.4%?+2%?3-5?,?PBM?BM?1326?2?%?+%?2?M?2015-2017?28.1%30%+1.9%?32%?+2%?9?PBM?PBM?2012?8?“?PBM?795933?+17.4%?1105?+18.4%?9?10?2017E 16579?+9%?3902?+13%?23.5%43.05(-0.5%)4
14、5.4%?+1%?34%?+2%?1326?+20.1%?CFDA?CVS?CVS HEALTH CROP?CVS.N?1963?2014?CVS?7780?1394?1200?PBM?17?CVS?8?CVS?2014?82%?Drive-Thru?Minute Clinic?18%?PBM?PBM?2006?Caremark?PBM?107,080123,120126,761139,36119.2%18.3%18.8%18.20%18%18%18%18%18%19%19%19%19%19%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0
15、002011201220132014?11?18?CVS?19?CVS 1996-2015?Wind?CVS/pharmacy?Longs Drugs?CVS.com?3?1963?1967?1988?750?20?90?500?2500?Revco?200?Arbo,?4000?21?CVS?Eckerd?1400?CVS?2006?PBM?PBM?Caremark?PBM?2009?Accendo?PBM?2014?21?Coram?-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%CVS?HEALTH?CORP?500?Accendo?PBM?PBM?Caremark,?
16、PBM?12?22000?CVS?CVS?CVS?CVS?20?CVS?2013?21?CVS?CVS?MinuteClinic?MinuteClinic?CVS?MinuteClinic?“?”+“?”+“?”?2014?12?31?CVS?CVS/pharmacy?Longs Drugs?7327?,?41?30?MinuteClinic?800?740?CVS?ExtraCare?CVS?6800?ExtraCare?CVS?69%11%5%15%?2.1%2.2%1.6%2.6%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%6600680070007200740076007800200920102011
17、20122013?%?13?22?CVS?“?”?23?CVS?ExtraCare?CVS?CVSCaremark?Caremark?CarePlus?CVS/pharmacy?CarePlus?RxAmerica?Accordant 7?31?12?4?22?CVS?SilverScript?Accendo?Pennsylvania Life?(UAM)?PBM?CVS?2006?Caremark?PBM?2014?884?ESI?Medco?PBM?IT?CVS?PBM?PBM?PBM?PBM?7?A?5?2014?44?2623?15?24?25?23%01000200030004000
18、5000?4?5?A?442826000000?3223623?2014?0%?30810?4?3943999?2?20?2953198?2014?014?40780?14?759?4?15?26?Wind?27?Wind?28?Wind?29?Wind?2006?50%?“?”?010203040502011201220132014?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%201220132014?0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.502011201220132014?0.000.100.200.300.400.50201220132014?16?30?9?2014?
19、52%?62%?47%?63%?50%?63%?70%?68%?31?Wind?20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%2011201220132014?17?10?2014.12?294?2015.04?32300?2015.06?7700?2015.06?2800?2015.06?2000?2015.06?24000?2015.07?4000?2015.07?2300?2015.08?1031?2015.08?4969?11?2015.05?2365?2015.07?11000?2015.08?11500?12?2015.08?7439.9?20
20、15.08?3580?2015.08?7100?2015.08?2700?2015.08?2480?GSP?5%-15%?13?A?80%?2015?1000?15?9?94?450?A?14?300?B?30?150?C?50?44?50?6?2016-2018?1000?1000?3000?18?32?A?33?2015?A?14?A?2014?2015H1?168.8?200?12?10%?394.7?43?13?8%?275.3?93?10-12?12%-14%?MDC?2013?14%?2011?(NACDS)?25%?45%?15?2013?30.9%45.6%38.0%10.0%
21、45.0%16.1%?31.5%22.2%18.9%65.0%18.8%43.7%?10.0%50.0%13.5%-?13.6%60.0%22.0%-?14.0%20.0%7.6%25.0%45.0%40.2%?100.0%37.0%100.0%100.0%28.0%100.0%?MDC?NACDS?“?”?050010001500200025003000350020112012201320142015E?0.9%10.6%12.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%02004006008001000201020122013?19?30%?16?A?17%?23%29%?15%19%?O2
22、O?B2C?17?2013-2014?10?1?38000 2011?4?2?36338 2010?4?3?33200 2012?11?4?32000 2013?11?5?31265 2011?5?6?31000 2009?6?7?24000 2009?10?8?20055 2005?12?9?13000 2011?11?10?10700 2010?12?2013-2014?2014?3.8?O2O?O2O?18?A?O2O?O2O?Hybris?O2O?SoLoMo?B2C?B2C?O2O?B2C?O2O?O2O?O2O?20?“?”?“?”?O2O?O2O?50%?2000?2014?O2
23、O?O2O?34?2013?CVS?“?”?2015?“?”+“?”+“?”?“?”+“?”+“?”?35?37?5?“?7?APP”?O2O?O+O?36?PC?PBM?O2O?21?22?39.4%?74.20%?80%?55%?2014?6800?O2O?O2O?“?”?23?15?/?73?1000?O2O?2500?O2O?24?603883?“?”?15?/?73?1000?15%?700?:?2015-2017?EPS?0.98/1.27/1.54?2015?60?PE?58.8?“?”?19?/?201320142015E2016E 2017E?3321394346575538
24、 6522?YoY?%?17191819 18?161202263339 412?YoY?%?29263029 22?0.600.760.981.27 1.54?%?35.937.037.437.8 38.2?%?17.518.611.413.0 13.9PE 84675140 33PB 119655EV/EBITDA 180148142113 92?wind?2015?10?8?25?002727?2015?3142?2500?2014?40?O2O?“?”?O2O?O2O?12?:?2015-2017?EPS?1.46/1.76/2.16?2015?45?PE?65.70?“?”?20?/
25、?201320142015E2016E 2017E?3547 4428 5610 7003 8599?YoY?%?2525272523?241 297 379 457 562?YoY?%?3223272123?0.93 1.14 1.46 1.76 2.16?%?39.6 40.4 40.0 40.3 40.5?%?22.9 14.3 16.6 18.1 19.9 PE 5343332823PB 96654EV/EBITDA 164 115 105 8265?wind?2015?10?8?26?21?2013 2014 2015E 2016E2017E?20132014 2015E 2016E
26、2017E?3,321 3,943 4,657 5,538 6,522?391 466 1,002 929 953?2,128 2,484 2,917 3,442 4,029?671 739 854 1,039 1,198?35.9%37.0%37.4%37.8%38.2%?267 313 363 438 514?2628364249?161 173 197 237 273?715 895 1,071 1,268 1,493?1,490 1,692 2,415 2,643 2,938?21.53%22.69%23.00%22.90%22.90%?158 182 190 197 203?181
27、205 242 288 339?3 0 200 400 600?5.46%5.20%5.20%5.20%5.20%?9998989898?13 24-3-16-15?430 558 677 796 896?0.40%0.62%-0.06%-0.28%-0.23%?690 838 1,165 1,491 1,796?1 1 0 0 0?2,180 2,530 3,581 4,135 4,734?248 302 395 512 626?312 286 000?7.46%7.67%8.49%9.25%9.59%?503 487 622 741 839?811 11 11 11?414 590 572
28、 711 851?3 2 2 2 2?1,228 1,363 1,195 1,452 1,690?253 311 404 521 634?058585858?60 73 95 122 149?35 23 22 22 22?23.5%23.5%23.5%23.5%23.5%?3581808080?33 36 46 60 73?1,263 1,444 1,275 1,532 1,770?161 202 263 339 412?200 200 267 267 267?4.84%5.13%5.64%6.11%6.32%?154 142 1,065 1,065 1,065?(?)(?)0.60 0.76
29、 0.98 1.27 1.54?916 1,086 2,305 2,602 2,964?107 118 164 224 297?2,180 2,530 3,581 4,135 4,734?2013 2014 2015E 2016E2017E?161 202 263 339 412?20132014 2015E 2016E2017E?3336466073?%?51 62 14 15 17?16.88 18.72 18.12 18.91 17.77?-130-77-72-48-37?20.64 22.09 30.74 29.50 22.17?22 25-5-15-14?28.54 25.92 29
30、.83 28.88 21.80?137 247 246 351 451?%?-72-118-138-138-118?35.92 37.00 37.37 37.84 38.23?00000EBIT Margin 8.15 8.39 8.39 8.98 9.38?1 4 0 0 0 EBITDA Margin 9.69 9.97 8.69 9.26 9.64?-172-100-200-200-200?4.84 5.13 5.64 6.11 6.32?-243-214-338-338-318?%?12990 00?17.54 18.64 11.40 13.01 13.92?120 32-286 0
31、0?7.75 8.39 7.69 8.66 9.30?-40-40-79-102-124?%?7-30 3 16 15?57.95 57.08 35.61 37.06 37.39?87-36 628-86-109?23.51 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50?-19-3 535-73 24?0.000.00 30.00 30.00 30.00?27?22?2013 2014 2015E 2016E2017E?20132014 2015E 2016E2017E?3,547 4,428 5,610 7,003 8,599?520 1,056 1,338 1,670 2,051?2,1
32、42 2,638 3,367 4,183 5,116?608 766 931 1,187 1,451?39.6%40.4%40.0%40.3%40.5%?218 245 328 410 494?2325344251?278 331 407 525 635?919 1,124 1,432 1,779 2,176?1,625 2,399 3,005 3,792 4,631?25.92%25.38%25.53%25.40%25.30%?313 350 546 725 885?176 238 325 406 499?3 4 254 504 754?4.95%5.38%5.80%5.80%5.80%?1
33、529343944?10 4-6 26 61?117 159 227 296 343?0.28%0.09%-0.11%0.38%0.71%?448 543 1,062 1,563 2,026?0 1 0 0 0?2,073 2,941 4,067 5,355 6,657?264 344 459 565 695?220 0628 1,392 2,130?7.45%7.78%8.17%8.07%8.08%?316 363 453 585 703?96666?484 493 706 856 1,002?3 5 5 5 5?1,020 856 1,787 2,833 3,835?270 345 459
34、 566 696?00000?31 50 69 85 104?3 3 3 3 3?11.3%14.6%15.0%15.0%15.0%?33333?-1-2 12 24 30?1,023 859 1,790 2,836 3,838?241 297 379 457 562?195 260 260 260 260?6.79%6.71%6.75%6.53%6.54%?165 838 838 838 838?(?)(?)0.93 1.14 1.46 1.76 2.16?1,050 2,083 2,276 2,520 2,819?3 0 12 36 65?2,073 2,941 4,067 5,355 6
35、,657?2013 2014 2015E 2016E2017E?241 297 379 457 562?20132014 2015E 2016E2017E?-1-2122430?%?53 74 77 95 113?24.79 24.86 26.68 24.83 22.80?-88-214-27-183-203?32.91 30.30 33.14 23.21 23.02?24 21-8 27 63?31.94 23.44 27.42 20.63 22.98?228 176 433 421 564?%?-145-159-338-338-318?39.59 40.44 39.97 40.26 40.
36、50?00000EBIT Margin 8.08 9.12 8.03 8.46 8.81?0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA Margin 9.57 10.79 9.41 9.81 10.13?0-6-250-250-250?6.79 6.71 6.75 6.53 6.54?-145-165-588-588-568?%?0749 000?22.94 14.28 16.64 18.14 19.94?64-220 628 764 738?11.64 10.11 9.34 8.59 8.53?0-156-197-238-292?%?-13 148 6-26-61?49.34 29.19 44.02 5
37、2.95 57.65?51520 437 500 385?11.33 14.56 15.00 15.00 15.00?134 532 282 332 381?0.00 52.53 52.00 52.00 52.00?i?ii?6?12?6?12?A?300?500?20%?5%?20%?-10%?5%?10%?10%?-10%?10%?10%?CLSA group of companies?“?”?Z20374000?CLSA Singapore Pte Limited?“CLSA Singapore”?s.4A?1?“?”?CLSA Singapore?“?”?CLSA Singapore?
38、1?33?25?2?34?27?3?35?36?https:/ group,CLSA Americas?CA Taiwan?Credit Agricole Corporate&Investment Bank?/?compliance_.?CITIC Securities International USA,LLC?“CSI-USA”?CLSA group of companies?CLSA Americas,LLC?“CLSA Americas”?1934?15a-6?CSI-USA?CLSA Americas?“?”?CLSA group of companies?CSI-USA?CLSA Americas?“?”?CLSA?UK?2000?2005?19?2015?