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1、The Role of CriticalMinerals in Clean EnergyTransitionsWorld Energy Outlook Special ReportINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to ene
2、rgy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions t
3、hat limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of
4、 any territory, city or area.Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.orgIEA member countries:SpainAustraliaSwedenAustriaSwitzerlandBelgiumTurkeyCanadaUnited KingdomCzech RepublicUnited StatesDenmarkIEA association countries:EstoniaFinlandBrazilFranceChinaGerman
5、yIndiaGreeceIndonesiaHungaryMoroccoIrelandSingaporeItalySouth AfricaJapanThailandKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicThe Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsForewordEver since the International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded in 1974 in the
6、wake of severe disruptions to global oil markets that shook the world economy, its core mission has been to foster secure and affordable energy supplies.Today, the global energy system is in the midst of a major transition to clean energy. The efforts of an ever-expanding number of countries and com
7、panies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to net zero call for the massive deployment of a wide range of clean energy technologies, many of which in turn rely on critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements.An evolving energy system calls for an evolving ap
8、proach to energy security. As clean energy transitions accelerate globally and solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars are deployed on a growing scale, these rapidly growing markets for key minerals could be subject to price volatility, geopolitical influence and even disruptions to supply.Thi
9、s World Energy Outlook special report on The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions identifies risks to key minerals and metals that left unaddressed could make global progress towards a clean energy future slower or more costly, and therefore hamper international efforts to tackle cl
10、imate change. The IEA is determined to play a leading role in enabling governments around theForewordworld to anticipate and navigate possible disruptions and avoid damaging outcomes for our economies and our planet.This special report is the most comprehensive global study of this subject to date,
11、underscoring the IEAs commitment to ensuring energy systems remain as resilient, secure and sustainable as possible. Building on the IEAs detailed, technology-rich energy modelling tools, we have established a unique and extensive database that underpins our projections of the worlds future mineral
12、requirements under different climate and technology scenarios.This is what energy security looks like in the 21st century. We must pay close attention to all potential vulnerabilities, as the IEA did in our recent series on electricity security for power systems, which covered challenges such as gro
13、wing shares of variable renewables, climate resilience and cyber security.Todays supply and investment plans for many critical minerals fall well short of what is needed to support an accelerated deployment of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. Many minerals come from a small number
14、of producers. For example, in the cases of lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, the worlds top three producers control well over three-quarters of global output. This high geographical concentration, the long lead times to bring new mineral production on stream, the declining resource quality in
15、 some areas,PAGE | 1The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsForewordand various environmental and social impacts all raise concerns around reliable and sustainable supplies of minerals to support the energy transition.These hazards are real, but they are surmountable. The response f
16、rom policy makers and companies will determine whether critical minerals remain a vital enabler for clean energy transitions or become a bottleneck in the process.Based on this special report, we identify the IEAs six key recommendations to ensure mineral security. An essential step is for policy ma
17、kers to provide clear signals about their climate ambitions and how their targets will be turned into action. Long-term visibility is essential to provide the confidence investors need to commit to new projects. Efforts to scale up investment should go hand-in-hand with a broad strategy that encompa
18、sses technology innovation, recycling, supply chain resilience and sustainability standards.There is no shortage of resources worldwide, and there are sizeable opportunities for those who can produce minerals in a sustainable and responsible manner. Because no single country will be able to solve th
19、ese issues alone, strengthened international cooperation is essential. Leveraging the IEAs long-standing leadership in safeguarding energy security, we remain committed to helping governments, producers and consumers tackle these critical challenges.Finally, I would like to thank the excellent team
20、behind this ground-breaking report, led by Tae-Yoon Kim under the direction of Tim Gould, for their work in producing analysis of such high quality, and many other colleagues from across the Agency who brought their expertise to bear on this crucial topic.Dr. Fatih BirolExecutive DirectorInternation
21、al Energy AgencyPAGE | 2The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsExecutive summary4Introduction19The state of play23Mineral requirements for clean energy transitions42Low-carbon power generation54Electricity networks75Electric vehicles and battery st
22、orage83Hydrogen109Reliable supply of minerals116Supply prospects for the focus minerals132Approaches to ensure reliable mineral supply157Focus on recycling175Sustainable and responsible development of minerals191Mineral development and climate change193Sustainable minerals development208Responsible
23、minerals development225International co-ordination239Annexes246PAGE | 3The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsExecutive summaryExecutive summaryPAGE | 4The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsExecutive summaryIn the transition to clean energy, critical minerals bri
24、ng new challenges to energy securityAn energy system powered by clean energy technologies differs profoundly from one fuelled by traditional hydrocarbon resources. Building solar photovoltaic (PV) plants, wind farms and electric vehicles (EVs) generally requires more minerals than their fossil fuel-
25、based counterparts. A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant. Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has
26、 increased by 50% as the share of renewables has risen.The types of mineral resources used vary by technology. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, longevity and energy density. Rare earth elements are essential for permanent magnets that are vital for
27、wind turbines and EV motors. Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminium, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies.The shift to a clean energy system is set to drive a huge increase in the requirements for these minerals, meaning that the energy se
28、ctor is emerging as a major force in mineral markets. Until the mid-2010s, the energy sector represented a small part of total demand for most minerals. However, as energy transitions gather pace, clean energy technologies are becoming the fastest-growing segment of demand.In a scenario that meets t
29、he Paris Agreement goals, clean energy technologies share of total demand rises significantly over the next two decades to over 40% for copper and rare earth elements, 60-70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium. EVs and battery storage have already displaced consumer electronics to bec
30、ome the largest consumer of lithium and are set to take over from stainless steel as the largest end user of nickel by 2040.As countries accelerate their efforts to reduce emissions, they also need to make sure their energy systems remain resilient and secure. Todays international energy security me
31、chanisms are designed to provide insurance against the risks of disruptions or price spikes in supplies of hydrocarbons, particularly oil. Minerals offer a different and distinct set of challenges, but their rising importance in a decarbonising energy system requires energy policy makers to expand t
32、heir horizons and consider potential new vulnerabilities. Concerns about price volatility and security of supply do not disappear in an electrified, renewables-rich energy system.This is why the IEA is paying close attention to the issue of critical minerals and their role in clean energy transition
33、s. This report reflects the IEAs determination to stay ahead of the curve on all aspects of energy security in a fast-evolving energy world.PAGE | 5The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsExecutive summaryThe rapid deployment of clean energy technologies as part of energy transition
34、s implies a significant increase in demand for mineralsMinerals used in selected clean energy technologiesTransport (kg/vehicle)CopperElectric carLithiumConventional carNickelManganese50100150200250CobaltPower generation (kg/MW)GraphiteOffshore windChromiumOnshore windMolybdenumSolar PVZincNuclearRa
35、re earthsCoalSiliconNatural gasOthers4 0008 00012 00016 00020 000IEA. All rights reserved.Notes: kg = kilogramme; MW = megawatt. Steel and aluminium not included. See Chapter 1 and Annex for details on the assumptions and methodologies.PAGE | 6The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transition
36、sExecutive summaryThe energy sector becomes a leading consumer of minerals as energy transitions accelerateShare of clean energy technologies in total demand for selected minerals100%80%60%40%20%20102020204020402010202020402040201020202040204020102020204020402010202020402040STEPSSDSSTEPSSDSSTEPSSDSS
37、TEPSSDSSTEPSSDSLithiumCobaltNickelCopperRare earth elementsIEA. All rights reserved.Notes: Demand from other sectors was assessed using historical consumption, relevant activity drivers and the derived material intensity. Neodymium demand is used as indicative for rare earth elements. STEPS = Stated
38、 Policies Scenario, an indication of where the energy system is heading based on a sector-by-sector analysis of todays policies and policy announcements; SDS = Sustainable Development Scenario, indicating what would be required in a trajectory consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals.PAGE |
39、 7The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy TransitionsExecutive summaryClean energy transitions will have far-reaching consequences for metals and miningOur bottom-up assessment suggests that a concerted effort to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement (climate stabilisation at “well below 2C g
40、lobal temperature rise”, as in the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario SDS) would mean a quadrupling of mineral requirements for clean energy technologies by 2040. An even faster transition, to hit net-zero globally by 2050, would require six times more mineral inputs in 2040 than today.Which secto
41、rs do these increases come from? In climate-driven scenarios, mineral demand for use in EVs and battery storage is a major force, growing at least thirty times to 2040. Lithium sees the fastest growth, with demand growing by over 40 times in the SDS by 2040, followed by graphite, cobalt and nickel (around 20-25 times). The expansion of electricity networks means that copper demand for power lines more than doubles over the same period.The rise of low-carbon power generation to meet climate goals also means a tripling of mineral demand from this sector by 2040. Wind takes the lead, bolst