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1、财务指标对企业竞争力影响的实证分析An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on EconomicActivity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the FinancialGlobalization ContextsAbstract ：The purpose of this study is to provide an empirical analysis of some of the impacts of international financial integrati
2、on on economic activity and macro-economic volatility in African countries. It is acknowledged that financial integration affect several aspects of economic performance, particularly increases investment rates, technology transfers, trade openness, stimulates the development of domestic financial sy
3、stem and economic growth. Similarly, financial integration is recognized as a potential source of macroeconomic instability.The results of empirical analysis show that the impact of external capital flows on growth seems to depend mainly on the initial conditions and policies implemented to stabiliz
4、e foreign investment, increase domestic investment, productivity and trade, develop the domestic financial system, expand trade openness and other actions aimed at stimulating growth and reducing poverty.Keywords:financial globalization, international financial integration, external capital flows, e
5、conomic activity, volatility, Africa.countrys local financial system with international financial markets and institutions (World Bank, Global Development Finance, 2010). The concept of international financial integration (or financial integration) refers to the specific links of a country with inte
6、rnational capital markets (Prasad et al. 2003). In other words, international financial integration can be likened to the opening of domestic financial systems, such as financial markets and institutions and banking systems, to the rest of the world and the internationalization of financial assets a
7、nd liabilities managed by resident entities. It is also comparable to the concepts of financial liberalization and financial openness. In the remainder of this paper, the terms financial liberalization, financial openness, and international financial integration are used interchangeably.2. Overview
8、of Economic Literature on Relationship between International Financial Integration and Macroeconomic VolatilityThe negative impact of financial instability on economic growth and the other macroeconomic and financial indicators has been the subject of considerable literature, especially in the wake
9、of the Mexican and Asian crises in 1994 and 1997. As emphasized by the IMF, instability was particularly severe in the 1990s, whereas many developing countries (including African countries) had only then liberalized their capital accounts. This instability was more pronounced in the case of portfoli
10、o investments than in direct investments because of the longer-term relationship established by the latter. The most severe instability of capital flows recorded in that decade was also accompanied by slightly weaker growth (IMF, 2001). Indeed, the 1990s witnessed many foreign exchange and financial
11、 system crises, often accompanied by a strong contraction in activity?. Bano (2001) also revealed that financial instability leads to drops in economic growth. This weak growth is the result of excessive capital inflows and outflows and, more generally, the instability of net financial flows (Prasad
12、 et al., 2003; World Bank, 2000) and IMF, 2001).The forecasts made by the IMF in the wake of the 1997 East Asian financial crises, which broke out in East Asia in 1997, anticipated a highly significant short-term slowdown in economic growth rates (IMF, 1998). As pointed out by Calvo and others (1996
13、), in most cases, the financial crises were due to excessive capital inflows, which were especially volatile in the form of portfolio investments that were not efficiently allocated to the most productive investments. According to the IMF, these negative results were largely due to the limited capac
14、ities of the financial markets in many developing countries, the fact that lending agencies were less inclined to carry out deeper analysis of projects against a backdrop of abundant financial flows, and imbalances created by attempts to finance long-term projects with short-term capital (IMF, 2001)
15、. The macroeconomic volatility in developing countries is also worsened by the international contagion phenomenon (Jeanne, 2004). The World Bank has shown that financial instability can also impact on the poverty level and have other consequences for the social situation (World Bank, 2000). In concl
16、usion, liberalization can also be associated with more severe macro-economic instability and more frequent crises, which may generate social costs and an increase in poverty. 3.Conclusion and Policy RecommendationsThe study shows considerable divergences on the impact of financial integration on eco
17、nomic growth. In studying this relationship, the paper examines the case of African countries classified between “open and “closed” countries for the 1976-2009 periods. The data do not support the view that international financial integration accelerates economic growth, even under particular econom
18、ic and financial conditions. In addition, the significant private external capital inflows to the continent are a fairly recent phenomenon. In view of the inconclusive nature of the empirical evidence on links between growth and capital inflows, it seems too early to expect sound and strong economet
19、ric results in the case of African countries. These divergences do not necessarily call into question the theoretical underpinnings of a significant and strong relationship between financial integration and economic growth. This relationship could be analyzed on a long-term basis.An additional expla
20、nation of these results can be offered. The significant and strong nature of this relationship is also closely linked to the existence of prerequisites such as the quality of public institutions and governance, the quality of governance of private institutions and enterprises, the level of transpare
21、ncy of government activities, the level of corruption, and the effectiveness of the legal and judicial frameworks (Kose et aL, 2009; Bekaert et al., 2001 and Chanda, 2001). In contrast, Quinn and Toyoda (2008) and Kraay (1998), did not discover these effects.Moreover, we found that instability was m
22、ore pronounced for open countries than closed countries and in the case of portfolio investments than in direct investments. African countries have not been spared the volatility of international capital flows observed in recent times. However, the volatility of capital flows observed in “open and “
23、closed countries was accompanied by moderate instability of economic growth.4.Policy recommendationsFor researchers, financial globalization is captivating not only because of its fascinating policy relevance, but because of the huge variation of methodologies and experiences across countries. Most
24、of the studies on the economic impact of financial globalization in developing economies were mainly devoted to emerging countries and shifted from the low-income countries, especially those in Africa. First, it is imperative to extend the research on measuring financial integration degree, further
25、work on constructing additional measures of financial integration would be extremely useful. Secondly, understanding the specific channels through which different types of inflows affect long-run growth would also be an important step in evaluating their comparative benefits.For policymakers in Afri
26、can countries, the topic is practical and relevant, since most of African countries are still very much in the early stages of financial integration, and face various ongoing decisions about the speed and depth of financial account liberalization, the types of external capital flows (FDI, portfolio
27、investments, etc.). What is clear is that financial openness puts a greater burden on other policies and structural features of the economy. For African countries, financial integration can play a catalytic role in stimulating an array of collateral benefits that boost long-run growth and prosperity
28、. Furthermore, some of the collateral benefits generated by financial integration, including macroeconomic discipline and financial system development and soundness, could also reduce volatility. But the existence of threshold conditions can generate perverse effects. Capital account liberalization
29、in the absence of fundamental supporting conditions can vitiate the realization of any benefits, while making a country more vulnerable to financial crisis. Thus, it is not surprising that evidence on the impact of financial integration is so mixed.In conclusion, the impact of external capital flows
30、 on growth seems to depend primarily on the initial conditions and policies implemented in the country under consideration to stabilize foreign investment, boost domestic investment, productivity and other actions aimed at boosting growth and reducing poverty.在金融全球化背景下分析非洲金融一体化对经济活动的影响和宏观经济的波动摘要：本研究
31、的目的是提供在非洲国家宏观经济波动中国际金融一体化对经济活动的影响实 证分析，普遍认为金融一体化影响经济表现在几个方面，尤其是提高投资率，技术转让，贸 易开放度，刺激国内金融体系发展和经济增长。同样，金融一体化被认为是宏观经济不稳定 的一个潜在来源。实证分析的结果显示出外部资本流动对经济增长的影响似乎主要取决于起始条件和实 现稳定的外国投资政策，增加的国内投资，生产力以及贸易，发展国内金融体系，扩大贸易开 放和其他行动都旨在刺激经济增长和减少贫困。关键词:金融全球化、国际金融一体化、外部资本流动、经济活动波动、非洲1金融全球化和国际金融一体化：本研究的目的是提供在非洲国家宏观经济波动中国际金融
32、一体化对经济活动的影响实 证分析，而占主导地位的经济理论认为资本账户自由化或多或少对经济的增长产生重大影 响，也有大量的作品，对资本流动的相关性的益处表示怀疑。占主导地位的经济理论认为金融全球化和国际金融一体化可以促进更高效的资源配置, 促进风险的分散，提高专业化生产，创造副产品，对金融体系的发展作出贡献并提高利率和 促进投资的经济增长(参考于 IMF (2001) ; Edison, Klein, Ricci and SI0k (2002a and 2000b); Henry (2000); King and Levine 1993); Mougani (2001 and 2006); Ob
33、stfeld (1994); Prasad et al. (2003); and Stulz (1999).)由于承认这些潜在影响的存在，工业化国家一直致力于资本账户 自由化政策超过四分之一个世纪。根据这些作者的理论，这些国家产生许多积极的影响的主 要是由于增加了投资机会和更加开放的诱导，发展了金融资本市场。金融全球化和国际金融一体化的概念紧密相连。金融全球化是一个宽泛的概念,是指跨 国资金流动的强劲扩张(Prasad et al. 2003年)。根据世界银行“金融全球化”或“金融市场的全 球化”可以定义为“作为一个国家的当地的集成金融体系与国际金融市场和机构”(世界银 行,2010年全球发展
34、金融)o国际金融一体化的概念(或金融一体化)是指一个国家与国际资 本市场的具体链接(Prasad et al.2003年)。换句话说，国际金融一体化可以比作开放国内金融 系统，如金融市场和机构和银行系统,世界其他国家和国际化的金融资产和负债管理居民的实 体。它也与金融自由化和金融开放的概念。在本文的其余部分,金融自由化、金融开放，国际 金融一体化是可以互换的。2国际金融一体化和宏观经济波动之间的关系金融动荡对经济增长的负面影响和其他宏观经济和金融指标已经相当大的文学的主题, 特别是在墨西哥和亚洲金融危机后，在1994年和1997年。根据国际货币基金组织强调，不稳 定在1990年代尤为严重，而许
35、多发展中国家(包括非洲国家)只有那么开放其资本账户。这种 不稳定性是更明显的比在直接投资组合投资,因为后者建立的长期关系。最严重的不稳定的 资本流动记录在十年也伴随着略弱增长(货币基金组织,2001)。事实上,1990年代见证了许多 外汇和金融体系危机，常常伴随着activity7强劲收缩。巴罗(2001)还透露，金融不稳定会导致 经济增长下降。这个增长疲软的结果过度资本流入和流出，更一般地，净资本流动的不稳定性 (Prasad et al .,2003;世界银行,2000年)和国际货币基金组织,2001年)。由国际货币基金组织预测在1997年东亚金融危机后，东亚地区爆发于1997年，预期的一
36、 个非常重要的短期经济增长放缓（货币基金组织998）。Calvo等（1996）指出的，在大多数情况 下，金融危机是由于过度资本流入，这是特别不稳定的形式组合投资，没有有效地分配给最有 生产力的投资。根据国际货币基金组织，这些负面结果很大程度上是由于金融市场有限的能 力在许多发展中国家，这一事实，贷款机构不太倾向于开展深入的分析项目的背景下丰富的资 金流动，并试图创造的失衡长期项目融资与短期资本（货币基金组织,2001）。发展中国家的宏观经济波动也是国际蔓延恶化的现象（珍妮,2004）。世界银行（World Bank）已 经表明，金融不稳定还可以对贫困水平的影响和产生其他影响社会情况（世界银行,
37、2000）。总 之，自由化也可以与更严重的宏观经济不稳定和更频繁的危机，这可能产生的社会成本和增加 贫困。3结论和政策建议研究显示相当大的分歧在金融一体化对经济增长的影响。在研究这种关系，本文考察了 非洲国家机密的情况下“开放，与“封闭，国家之间1976 - 2009时期。数据不支持的观点，国际 金融一体化加速经济增长，即使在特定的经济和金融状况。此外,重要的私人外部资本流入大 陆较近的现象。针对不确定的性质之间的联系的经验证据增长和资本流入，似乎为时过早期 望声音和强大的计量结果的非洲国家。这些分歧不一定质疑一个重要的理论基础和强大的金 融一体化和经济增长之间的关系。这种关系可能是一个长期的
38、基础上分析了。可以提供一个额外的解释这些结果。这种关系的重要和强大的性质也是紧密相连的存在 条件等公共机构的质量和治理,治理质量的私人机构和企业，政府活动的透明度，腐败的程度, 法律和司法的有效性（高丝et al2009;贝卡尔特et al .,2001年和钱德,2001）。相比之下，奎因 和丰田（2008）和伊（1998）,没有发现这些影响。此外，我们发现不稳定是比封闭的国家开放的国 家更为明显对于比直接投资组合投资。非洲国家的国际资本流动的波动性也一直未能幸免最近观察 到。然而,资本流动的波动性在“开放”和“封闭”国家伴随着温和的经济增长不稳定。4政策建议研究人员,金融全球化是迷人的，不仅
39、因为它的迷人的政策相关性，但由于各国的巨大差 异的方法和经验。大多数的研究在经济金融全球化的影响主要是致力于新兴国家和发展中国 家转移的低收入国家，特别是在非洲I。首先，必须扩展研究测量金融一体化程度,进一步研究构 建额外的金融一体化将是非常有用的措施。其次,理解不同类型的具体途径流入影响长期增 长也是一个重要步骤在评估他们的比较利益。对于非洲国家的决策者,主题是实用的和相关 的,因为大多数非洲国家仍然非常在金融一体化的早期阶段，和面对正在进行各种决策的速度 和深度金融账户自由化,外部资本流动的类型（外国直接投资、组合投资等）。很明显，金融开 放更大的负担其他政策和经济的结构特点。对非洲国家来
40、说，金融一体化发挥催化作用在刺 激一系列的间接效益，促进长期经济增长和繁荣。此外，一些金融一体化所产生的附带福利, 包括宏观经济纪律和金融系统发展和稳健，还能减少波动。但存在的阈值条件下可以产生不 良影响。资本账户自由化在缺乏基本的支持条件可以损害任何利益的实现，同时使一个国家 更容易受到金融危机。因此,它是不足为奇的证据的影响，金融一体化是如此复杂。总之，外部 资本流动对经济增长的影响似乎主要取决于初始条件和政策实施的国家正在考虑稳定的外 国投资，刺激国内投资、生产力和其他行动旨在提振经济增长和减少贫困。Times New Roman 1.著作：作者姓名.书名M.xx：出版社，xxxx, x
41、x.2.论文：作者姓名.论文题目D.杂志名称，xxxx ()： xx.以英文大写字母方式标识各种参考文献，专著M、论文集C、报纸文章N、期刊文章J、学位 论文D、报告R。（Times New Roman 加粗，四号字，居中）xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX （Times New Roman 五号字单倍行距，首行 缩进2字符）备注：英文文献必须注明出处文献翻译二：译文XXXXXX （宋体，加粗，四号字，居中）XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
42、XXXXXX（正文：宋体五号，1.5倍行距，首行缩进2字符）每篇外文文献翻译的中文字数不少于2000 字1. The concepts of financial globalization and international financial integrationThe purpose of this study is to provide an empirical analysis of some of the impacts of international financial integration on economic activity and macro-economic vo
43、latility in African countries. While dominant economic theory suggests that capital account liberalization has a more or less significant impact on economic growth, there are also a number of works that call into question the existence of capital mobility-related benefits.Dominant economic theory su
44、ggests that financial globalization and international financial integration may foster more efficient resource allocation, facilitate risk diversification, increase specialization in production, create technological spin-offs, contribute to the development of the financial system, improve investment
45、 rates and boost growth (refer, in particular, to IMF (2001); Edison, Klein, Ricci and S10k (2002a and 2000b) ; Henry (2000) ; King and Levine 1993); Mougani (2001 and 2006) ; Obstfeld (1994) ; Prasad et al. (2003); and Stulz (1999). In acknowledging the existence of these potential impacts, the ind
46、ustrialized countries have been committed to capital account liberalization policies for over a quarter of a century. According to these authors, many of the positive impacts observed in these countries are largely due toincreased investment opportunities and financial development induced by greater
47、 openness of capital markets.The concepts of financial globalization and international financial integration are closely linked. Financial globalization is a broad concept that refers to the strong expansion of transnational financial flows (Prasad et al. 2003). According to the World Bank, financial globalization1 * * * 5 or globalization of financial markets, can be defined as “as the integration of a