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1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ?-Where is the solution?Christopher Poll Chairman,Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,3 QUESTIONS RAISEDHOW TO DEFINE A“WELL REGULATED MARKET?WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MA
2、RKET,WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?HOW TO DEFINE A“WELL REGULATED MARKET?The Financial Markets are DynamicBusiness is“ProactiveBut Regulators are“Reactive not“ProactiveThe System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be pletely Flexible and DynamicImportance of Fiduciary ResponsibilityFina
3、ncial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutional ManagersCentred aroundPublicInvestorsPRIVATE SECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokers mercialBanksConflict of Interest?Conflict of InterestWho is the client?Who are the Financial Policeman Responsible t
4、o?Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutual FundsInvestorsConfidence=InvestorsEducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/ConfidenceEasier and more effective enforcement.Increased efficiency reduces costs.Impro
5、ved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and petitively.Efficient InfrastructureTransparencyAccountabilityLeads to:A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for theChinese Fund IndustryInvestorsbehaviourStock InvestorsFund InvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundMan
6、agersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCWHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?Chinese QuotedStocks CorporateProfits?NASDAQCorporate Profits?Confidence$1995-2000C$IF CONFIDENCE IS LOWTHEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTECONFIDENCE$IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGHTHEN MONEY FLOW IS LARGEWhat is the Criteria
7、For Investing?1.What do you think is the most important influence on the stock market in China today?The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted panies-6The future prospects for corporate earnings-10Government policy-62 Govt.investigation into mal practices15The overall ec
8、onomic growth of the Chinese economy-27Chinas entry into the WTO-82.How do you as an investor analyse the fair value of the panies you buy&sell?Bypriceearningsratio-35Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5Bythelatestrumour-58Bythebusinesssectorthepanyisinvolvedin-21Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-93.What do you th
9、ink should be the average prospective price earnings ratio for non-technology stocks?under15times-015to25times-18above25-1104.What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio?under15times-015to25times-125to50-16over50-1115.How do you measure investment risk?Bymeasuringthevola
10、tilityofthestock-31Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13Byparingwithandadjustingforariskfreemeasuresuchasadepositrate-8At what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31s
11、t December 2001?most think it will be above 2500Today it is 2140At what level do you think the Shanghai B share market will be on 31st December 2001?mostthinkitwillbeabove200Todayitis183IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET,WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?Factors
12、 Effecting Investment Time HorizonsConfidence in Long Term TrendsConfidence in Information DisclosureVolatility of MarketsLiquidity of MarketsProfit ForecastPublic Scrutiny of PerformanceEACM100:EqualWeightedRebalancedAnnuallyIndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideChina versus Western Market
13、sLimited sense of AccountabilityLittle Understanding of RiskChinese Business PhilosophyReluctance to Incentivise Executive ManagersEntrepreneurs Understand Cause&ConsequenceRisk is Fully UnderstoodShareholder Accountability is acceptedShare Options and Profit IncentivesFUND PANYREGULATORPOLICEMENFUN
14、DCUSTODIANBENEFICIARYCERTIFICATEINVESTORSASSETSMONEYBasic Concept of Funds as an Investment Vehicle9、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。6月-236月-23Thursday,June1,202310、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。12:23:0512:23:0512:236/1/202312:23:05PM11、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。6月-2312:23:0512:23Jun-2301-Jun-2312、故人江海别，几度隔山川。12:23:0512:23:0512:23Thursday,June1,20231
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