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1、CONFIDENTIALChinas Mobile Telecom ServicesIndustry OverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCESMGMs and CSS involved in the r
2、elevant studies include the following:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)JuliaYang(BEI)EricXu(BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)The series of PDs
3、 include the following:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#ChinasMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#ChinasInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#ChinasMobileHandsetSectorOverview#ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEntrytoChina102PDChin
4、aMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEY MESSAGES1.Chinasmobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworldslargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworldstotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially
5、218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.ThecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotodaysduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomop
6、erators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.H
7、oweverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005,usedby43%ofallmobileusers.Interestfromconsumersurveyshavebeenhighandoperatorsandotherplayersareactivel
8、ybuildingservicesinthemarket.WhileearlyWAPserviceshavefailedtocatchon,SMShasgrownexponentiallywithupto20billionSMSmessagesin2001.Theearlyadopterswillbemobileprofessionalsandmodernyouth,whowillrequireservicesanddevicestailoredtotheirneeds.4.Regulatorychangesloom,particularlywiththeaccessionofChinatot
9、heWTO.WhileforeignerswillbeunlikelytosetupMVNOs,WTOwillallowgreaterparticipationofforeignersinbasicandvalueaddedservices,althoughgeographiclimitationswillexistthrough2004andChineseplayerswillberequiredtoownatleast50%oftelecomserviceventures(51%forbasicservices).Regulatoryrisksremain,withnomeanstoapp
10、ealregulatordecisions,unclearinterpretationofregulationincludingWTOcommitments,andthegovernmentstrackrecordofintransparentandunpredictabledecisionmaking.(SeeseparateregulatoryPDfordetails)AppendixPlayersprofiles3Gtechnologystandardschoices202PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEY MESSAGES
11、1.Chinas mobile telecom service market is huge and fast growing,representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US$38 billion in 2005.This market is supported by the worlds largest subscriber base at 145 million,already comprising 15%of the worlds total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 mill
12、ion in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 2005302PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt1997-2001 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30%CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16%THROUGH 2005RevenuesUS$BillionsCAGR vs.other industries(1997-2001)PercentMobile
13、FixedlinePagingCAGR30%CAGR16%Source:DeutscheBank;McKinseyanalysis402PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt*RevenuesdonotequaltheproductofARPUassubscriberfiguresareprovidedforyearend,notaveragesubscribersduringayear.Detailedinformationonthetimingofnewsubscriptionsandchurnrequiredforthecalcula
14、tionofaveragesubscribersduringagivenyearisnotavailable*AllCAGRsarecalculatedontheannounceddataSource:DeutscheBank;JPMorgan;MIIEXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EVOLUTION,MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITIONMobile revenues*$BillionsNum
15、ber of subscribers low case MillionsCAGR 30%CAGR 16%CAGR 83%ARPUUS$/monthCAGR-24%CAGR-7%PenetrationinitiallylowGovernmentbackingforincreasingsubscribernumbersRelativelylowfixedlinepenetrationLow-endprepaidsubscriberincreaseDrivers DeclineduetoincreasedprepaidandlowerspendingbylateentrantsTariffreduc
16、tionascompetitionincreasesSlightlyoff-setbyincreaseindatatrafficinlateryearsCAGR 19%20823526329117161515AnnouncedEffective502PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt*05forecastuselowcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction*MajorEuropeancountriesinclude:UK,France,Italy,Germany,Nether
17、lands,Spain,SwedenSource:JPMorgan;WEFA-WMM;MII;McKinseyanalysisJapanCHINA IS THE WORLDS LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS,HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2001USMajorEuropean*countriesCAGR=30%CAGR=14%CAGR=7%Number of mobile subscribersMillionsCAGR=13%20002005Chinalowcase*Chinahighcase*CAGR=22%602PDCh
18、inaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINAS MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET,COMPRISING 15%OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001*Afirca,EasternEurope,MiddleEast,Canada*Forecastof02-05usethehighcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:JPMorgan;Gartner2
19、001;DeutscheBank;MerrillLynch;PiperJaffray19971998199920002001E2073004827279651,1781,3931,633100%=Global mobile subscribersMillionsubscribers;percentWesternEuropeUSSouthandLatinJapanandAsiaPacificChina*Restofworld*CAGR1997-2005percent2918452847452002E 2003E 2004E 2005E1,850702PDChinaMobileTelecomsSe
20、rviceIndustry020403.pptCHINAS MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY*02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:IDCreport;JPMorganreport;McKinseyanalysisNet subscriber*additionsMillions199719981999200020012002E2003E2004E2005E10847133-98-4711Annual growth Percent12
21、37912131516PenetrationPercent47.143.946.345.75.511.516.939.435.9LowcaseHighcaseLow10847103-9225-13HighLowHigh1237912161923802PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt0%5%10%15%20%25%CHINAS SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 218 MILLION IMPLIES A 47%PENETRATION OF AN ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF 460 MILLION BY 2005*Lo
22、wcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:JPMorgan;DRI;A;Literaturesearch;Analystreports;TeamanalysisIncome per capita(US$p.a.)2001AddressablemarketNumberofmobilesubscribersImpliedpenetrationoftheaddressablemarket2005E345mn145mn42%463mn218mn*47%China income distribution and addressa
23、ble marketPercent1,8151,77220012005Chinasaddressablepopulationformobileservicesisprojectedtoincreaseby8%p.a.forthenextfiveyearsto460millionin2005Thekeyassumptionsindeterminingtheincomethresholdare:Chineseconsumerswillingtospend5-10%oftheirincomeoncommunicationserviceshigherthantheaverageof3.5-4%form
24、oredevelopedmarketsasagreaterportionofincomeisavailablefornon-essentialgoodsasaresultofChinasrelativelylowlivingcostHalfofthisassumedspentonmobileservices(5.5%)UnicomsprepaidARPUwilldecreasefromUSD8.3for2001toUSD8.1for2005;thereforethethresholdincomewilldropfromUSD1,815(8.3*12/5.5%)for2001toUSD1,772
25、for2005(8.1*12/5.5%)2005Addressablemarket:35%Addressablepopulation:460mnpersons2001 Addressablemarket:27%Addressablepopulation:345mnpersonsPercent of population902PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptMOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7%IN 2000,LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTHSour
26、ce:JPMorgan;IDCreport;Gartner;Literaturesearch,EIU100%199619971998199920002001E 2002E 2003E2004E 2005EMobile subscriber penetration in 2000PercentItalySwedenNetherlandsUKSpainGermanyFranceUSChina*AllsubscribersDataservicesubscribers1,2181,2301,2421,2541,2651,2761,2871,2981,3091,319As percentage of t
27、otal population low case*Millions(totalpopulation)ChinaUrban*02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction*Penetrationovertotalpopulation*Penetrationoverurbanpopulation.0.61.01.92.96.68.91.12.03.97.10.412.013.415.016.41002PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINAS RICHER P
28、ROVINCES GENERALLY HAVE MORE SUSCRIBERS AND ARE GREATER PENETRATEDPopulationMillionsPenetrationPercent,2000Subscriber CAGRPercent,1998-2000Number of subscribersMillionsProvinceGuangdongLiaoningZhejiangJiangsuShandongFujianHeilongjiangShanghaiHebeiSichuanBeijingHenanAnhuiHubeiHunanSource:ChinaStatist
29、icalyearbook,JPMorganReport,McKinseyanalysis1102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptWHILE THE POOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR PROVINCES HAVE LESS SUBSCRIBERS AND ARE LESS PENETRATED*Growthratefrom1999-2000Source:ChinaStatisticalyearbook,JPMorganReport,McKinseyanalysisPopulationMillionsPenetratio
30、nPercent,2000Subscriber CAGRPercent,1998-2000Number of subscribersMillionsProvinceJilinGuangxiYunnanShaanxiChongqingShanxiTianjinInnerMongoliaJiangxiGansuXinjiangHainanNingxiaQinghaiTibetGuizhou1202PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEY MESSAGES2.The competitive landscape for mobile servi
31、ces has evolved from a single regulator and operator to todays duopoly of China Unicom and China Mobile,both of whom are unassociated with the Ministry of Information Industries.A second breakup of China Telecom is expected to form two large telecom operators,China Telecom and China Netcom Group,who
32、 are likely to receive mobile licenses.A fifth telecom operator,China Railcom,also has the potential of receiving a third generation license and building a mobile business.For now,China Mobile dominates the market with 82%value share and 72%subscriber share and owns much of the high value user base.
33、However churn is already high and is expected to increase with continuing pricing pressures and increased competition.1302PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINAS MOBILE OPERATOR LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED SIGNIFICANTLY,CULMINATING IN SECOND BREAKUP OF CHINA TELECOMNomobilelicensescurrentlySo
34、urce:Literaturesearch;EIUPyramid;IndustryreportsChinaTelecomChinaUnicomBecamethesecondmobilenetworkoperatorinmid1994However,ChinaTelecomasthesoleproviderofbothbasicandwirelesstelephonyservicesmadeitdifficultforUnicomtogrowChinaUnicomChinaRailcomChinaUnicomMinistryofPostsandTelecommunicationsCreatedi
35、n1994whenformerMPTseparatedintoregulatoryandoperatingfunctionsChinaTelecomownershiptransferredtoMinistryofFinance,withregulatoryfunctionsplacedinthenewMinistryofInformationIndustries(MII)ChinaTelecomChinaMobile(CMCC)ChinaTelecomChinaMobile(CMCC)Underthegovernmentsanti-monopolyplan,inthe1sthalfof1999
36、,ChinaTelecomwassplitinto4operatingcompanies:CTfixed,ChinaMobile,CTPaging,CTSatelliteThechangebecameofficialonApril20,2000Priorto1994,theMPTactedastheregulatorandsoleoperatoroftelecommunicationsIn1993,announcementwasmadetoseparateoperatingandregulatoryfunctionsalongwiththeestablishmentofa2ndoperator
37、GreatWallEstablishedin1995toharnessPLAsradiospectrumThecompanyundertakes“theCDMAproject”atthedirectionofthegovernmentGreatWallDuetogovernmentcommitmenttoseparatePLAfromcommercialactivities,GreatWalldissolvedwithdecisiontotransferCDMAassetstoChinaUnicommadeinOctober2000(transferyettobecompleted)2ndla
38、rgestfixedlinenetworkEstablishedDecember2000OfferslimitedGSMserviceoveritsrailwaynetworkPre 1994 Regulator and Operator1994 to 1999Virtual Monopoly1999 To 2002 Deregulation/Breakup2002 and beyond 2nd breakupand future landscapeChinaNetcomEstablishedinSept.1999withinternetbackboneLikelylicensewinnerJ
39、itongJitongSetupin1994todevelopdatacommunicationserviceBegantoofferVoIPservicesLeadingplayerinvoiceoverIPChinaNetcomGroupChinaRailcomChinaTelecombrokenupintoNorthandSouthwithCTNorthmergingwithChinaNetcomandJitongtobecomeChinaNetcomGroupChinaTelecomSouthcontinuesoperationasChinaTelecomOperatingCDMAlo
40、calloopservicesinseveralcitiesChinaMobileunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithJitong,givenconcernsaboutconsequencesofforcedmergersforpubliclylistedcompaniesChinaUnicomunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithRailcomWhileGreatWallCDMAassettransferhasyettobecompleted,
41、UnicomwillbecomefirstmajoroperatorintheworldwithbothCDMAandGSMservices,withlaunchofitsownCDMAnetworkin2002Operatorbiddingfor3Glicense,withopennesstowardsadoptingChinas3Gstandard,TD-SCDMA1402PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptSource:Literaturesearch;industryinterviewsBeforeAfter CT break-u
42、pMOST RECENT BREAK-UP OF CHINA TELECOM TO LEAD TO A LANDSCAPE OF 5 OPERATORS COMPETING ACROSS BOTH MOBILE AND FIXEDLicensesLicensesAnnouncementonNovember26tomergeJitongwithChinaNetcomandChinaTelecomNorthernunitCompetitionwillincreaseasmergedtelecomgiantsobtainlicensesforcomprehensivetelecomoperation
43、s,includingFixed-linephoneMobilephoneInternet-relatedservicesOriginalplantomergeChinaMobilewithJitongandChinaUnicomwithChinaRailcom,metwithstrongdissentfromthecapitalmarketswhosawthisasanaffronttoChinaMobileandChinaUnicomsgovernanceaspubliclyheldcompaniesMobileMobileFixedMobile(GSM-R)FixedFixedFixed
44、FixedGROUPChina Telecom NorthChina Telecom SouthMobileFixedMobileFixedMobileFixedMobileFixedChina RailcomChina RailcomMobileFixedHavelicense1502PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptPROFILES OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERSChina assetsMobile strategyCurrent partnershipsLicense prospects*
45、Stilltobedecided96millionmobilesubscribers30millionmobilesubscribersServicescoveringover180citiesLargestnationaltelecomnetworkcovering2,000citiesFirstoperatortointroduceinternetaccesscards,andannouncedon-lineshoppingcardtobelaunchedin2001Internetbackbonecovering17majorcitiesStartedIPphoneservicesinJ
46、anuary20002ndlargestnetworkinChina;coveringallmajorcities(500cities)Betechnologyleader,thuseagertoenter3GFocusonhigh-endcustomersTrialingGPRSwith7vendorsStronglysupportingWAPShiftingattitudesontechnology,nowfirstplayertocoverbothGSMandCDMAFocusingattentionondevelopingCDMAnetworksTrialingGPRSwith4ven
47、dorsCompeteonserviceofferingwithexistingoperators,leveraginggovernmentandsupplierexpertiseActivewithWLLandlocalmobilityGostraightto3GifpossibleObtainmobilelicenseasquickaspossibleregardlessoftechnologystandardRolloutwirelessdataservicesevenifitmeanstakingGSM/GPRSfirstMayfocusinitiallyonGZ,BJ,SHLikel
48、yintendsfollowing2-tierstructureObtain3Glicensetotargethigh-endusersUse2GPHStotargetvoicesubscribersVodafoneHPHutchisonKDDISKTelecomTelstraAT&TJapanTelecomBritishTelecomNewsCorporationGoldmanSachsSingTelNoneExistingExistingCurrent playersChina MobileChina UnicomLikely future playersChina TelecomChin
49、a NetcomChina Railcom*Governmentlikelytogrant2licenses;undecidedwhen,andwhattype;nonetobeawardedin2001Source:PiperJaffrey;MerrillLynch;Literaturesearch1602PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptOTHER PLAYERS UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN MOBILE LICENSESSource:GoldmanSachs;EIUPyramid;McKinseyanalysisCent
50、ury MobileJitongForeign JV EntrantsNew telcosWho they areBasis for entryObstaclesConsortiumof10enterpriseswhohavejoinedtogethertotrytosetupmobileenterpriseSetupin1994todevelopdatacommunicationservicesPotentialJVsinvolvingforeigncompaniesNewplayersexpandingintotelecomSomegovernmentcontactsOriginallyc