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1、Chapter 16 1/6 Chapter 16 ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS 1.A nominal anchor helps promote price stability by tying inflation expectations to low levels directly through its constraint on the value of money.It can also limit the time-inconsistency problem by providing an expected constraint on monetary policy.
2、名义上的锚定可以通过约束货币价值，将通胀预期直接与低水平挂钩，从而促进价格稳定。它还可以通过提供预期的货币政策约束来限制时间不一致问题。2.Central bankers might think they can boost output or lower unemployment by pursuing overly expansionary monetary policy even though in the long run this just leads to higher inflation with no gains to increasing output or lowering
3、 unemployment.Alternatively,politicians may pressure the central bank to pursue overly expansionary policies.央行官员可能认为，他们可以通过推行过度扩张的货币政策来提高产出或降低失业率，尽管从长远来看，这只会导致通胀上升，而不会增加产出或降低失业率。或者，政治家们可能会向中央银行施压，要求其推行过度扩张的政策。3.This could pose a problem for a couple reasons.First of all,monetary policy has limited
4、ability to encourage long-run economic growth other than through its ability to maintain low,stable long-run inflation and interest rates.Moreover,a strictly interpreted focus on economic growth may result in an unhealthy focus on keeping short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period of time
5、to raise investment and consumption in the near-term.This could lead to imbalances in the economy that,if not properly addressed,could lead to bubbles and financial crises.这可能会造成一个问题，有几个原因。首先，相对于维持低、稳定的长期通胀和利率，货币政策刺激长期经济增长的能力有限。此外，对经济增长的严格解读，可能会导致不健康的关注于将短期利率维持在较低水平以便在短期内提高投资和消费。这可能导致经济失衡，如果不恰当解决，可能
6、导致泡沫和金融危机。4.Uncertain.Most economists probably would not dispute that trying to maintain stability in financial markets is important to the economy.However,having a constant and prioritized focus on financial market stability in order to prevent crises in most cases is probably unnecessary since fin
7、ancial crises are generally pretty rare.In addition,constantly focusing on maintaining stability in financial markets could come at the expense of ignoring more important factors that can be far more costly to the economy on a day-to-day basis,such as stabilizing output,unemployment,or other related
8、 short-term movements in the business cycle.不确定的。大多数经济学家可能不会否认，试图维持金融市场的稳定对经济是重要的。然而，为了防止在大多数情况下发生危机，将重点放在金融市场稳定上，这可能是不必要的，因为金融危机通常是相当罕见的。此外，不断关注金融市场的稳定，可能会无视更重要的因素，这些因素在日常生活中可能会对经济造成更大的损失，比方稳定产出、失业，或商业周期中其他相关的短期波动。5.False.There is no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment,so in the l
9、ong run a central bank with a dual mandate that attempts to promote maximum employment by pursuing inflationary policies would have no more success at reducing unemployment than one whose primary goal is price stability.通货膨胀与失业之间没有长期的平衡，因此长期以来，央行有双重使命：通过推行通货膨胀政策来促进就业最大化，在降低失业率方面没有比其主要目标是价格稳定更成功的了。6.
10、The success of inflation targeting relies on its ability to credibly anchor inflation expectations at a low,desirable level.Without formal public announcements and reminders about the numerical inflation target,markets and the public may have less faith that policymakers are committed to maintaining
11、 the inflation target.And if a formal inflation target is not announced at all,market participants and the public may not know the exact target and be forced to infer or estimate the target,creating uncertainty which can raise Chapter 16 2/6 inflation expectations and unanchor inflation expectations
12、 from a low,desirable level.通胀目标的成功依赖于它有能力将通胀预期可靠地锚定在一个低、理想的水平上。如果没有正式的公告和关于数字通胀目标的提醒，市场和公众可能对政策制定者承诺维持通胀目标的信心减少。如果一个正式的通胀目标没有公布，市场参与者和公众可能不知道确切的目标，被迫推断或估计目标，制造不确定性，从而提高通胀预期，将通胀预期从低、理想的水平上拉出来。7.Inflation targeting increases the accountability of monetary policymakers,and is a mechanism of self-disci
13、pline which effectively ties the hands of policymakers to commit to a policy path.Because of the transparency of an inflation targeting framework,it is very easy to verify whether policymakers are faithful to a committed policy path.As a result,there is much less ability and incentive for policymake
14、rs to deviate to a discretionary policy which could increase output or raise the inflation rate,therefore mitigating the time-inconsistency problem.通货膨胀目标制增加了货币政策制定者的责任，是一种自律机制，有效地将政策制定者的手绑在一条政策道路上。由于通胀目标框架的透明性，很容易验证政策制定者是否忠于承诺的政策路径。因此，政策制定者偏离自由裁量政策的能力和动机要小得多，这可能会增加产出或提高通货膨胀率，从而缓解时间不一致性的问题。8.Inflati
15、on-targeting central banks engage in extensive public information campaigns that include the distribution of glossy brochures,the publication of Inflation Report-type documents,making speeches to the public,and continual communication with the elected government.以通货膨胀为目标的中央银行从事广泛的公共信息宣传活动，包括分发印刷精美的小
16、册子、发布通货膨胀报告式文件、向公众发表演讲以及与民选政府进行持续的沟通。9.Sustained success in the conduct of monetary policy as measured against a pre-announced and well-defined inflation target can be instrumental in building public s upport for a central banks independence and for its policies.Also inflation targeting is consisten
17、t with democratic principles because the central bank is more accountable.根据预先公布的和明确定义的通胀目标来衡量货币政策的持续成功，可能有助于建立公众对央行独立性和政策的支持。此外，通胀目标与民主原则是一致的，因为央行更负责任。10.False.Inflation targeting does not imply a sole focus on inflation.In practice,inflation targeters do worry about output fluctuations,and inflati
18、on targeting may even be able to reduce output fluctuations because it allows monetary policymakers to respo nd more aggressively to declines in demand because they dont have to worry that the resulting expansionary monetary policy will lead to a sharp rise in inflation expectations.错误，通胀目标制并不意味着只关注
19、通胀。在实践中，实行通货膨胀目标制确实担忧产出波动和通货膨胀目标甚至可以减少产出波动,因为它允许货币政策制定者更积极地应对需求下降，,因为他们不必担忧由此产生的扩张性的货币政策会导致通胀预期大幅上升。11.This strategy has the following advantages:(a)it enables monetary policy to focus on domestic considerations;(b)underscoring the importance of price stability has helped it to mitigate the time-inc
20、onsistency problem,and(c)it has had a demonstrated success,producing low inflation with the longest business cycle expansion since World War II.However,it has the following disadvantages:(a)there has been an inherent lack of transparency(although this has begun to change in the last few years under
21、Bernanke);(b)it is strongly dependent on the preferences,skills,and trustworthiness of individuals in the central bank and the government;and(c)it has some inconsistencies with democratic principles because the central bank is not highly accountable.这一战略具有以下优点:(a)它使货币政策能够专注于国内考虑;(b)强调价格稳定的重要性，有助于缓解时
22、间矛盾的问题，而且(c)已经取得了成功，产生了自二战以来最长的商业周期扩张的低通胀。然而，它有以下缺点:(a)内在缺乏透明度(尽管在伯南克的任期内，这已经开始改变);(b)在中央银行和政府中，它严重依赖于个人的喜好、技能和可信赖性;而且(c)它与民主原则有一些不一致，因为中央银行没有高度负责。12.False.Although it is true that quantitative easing and other types of nonconventional policy can be used once the zero lower bound is reached on short
23、-term interest rates,it is not a panacea.In particular,when Chapter 16 3/6 the economy reaches the zero lower bound,this often can be coupled with deflationary conditions,which can be hard to design effective policies for,since the outcomes from such policies are much more uncertain than conventiona
24、l interest rate policy under typical conditions.In addition,nonconventional policies such as quantitative easing are more complex to implement,so it may be harder to effectively use these programs to push the economy away from the zero lower bound.虽然定量宽松政策和其他非常规政策可以在短期利率到达零下限的情况下使用，但它不是万灵药。特别是，当经济到达
25、零下限时，这往往与通货紧缩的情况相结合，这很难设计有效的政策，因为这些政策的结果比传统的利率政策在典型的情况下更加不确定。此外，诸如量化宽松等非常规政策实施起来更为复杂，因此，要有效利用这些项目将经济从零下限推下，可能会更加困难。13.The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates makes it harder to implement expansionary policy as actual inflation(and hence short-term interest rates)fall closer to zero.As a resul
26、t,there is less room to use monetary policy as a stabilization tool in a low inflation environment.In this context,it is argued that a higher inflation target may be appropriate to give policymakers more flexibility.The downside of this of course is that in general higher inflation rates can be cost
27、ly to society,posing a tradeoff for monetary policymakers in terms of flexibility versus efficiency of monetary policy.名义利率的零利率下限使实施扩张性政策变得更加困难，因为实际的通胀(因此短期利率)接近于零。因此，在低通胀环境下，使用货币政策作为稳定工具的空间更小。在这种背景下，有人认为，更高的通胀目标可能是适当的，以给予政策制定者更多的灵活性。当然，这样做的不利之处在于，总体而言，较高的通胀率可能会对社会造成巨大的损失，在货币政策的灵活性和效率方面对货币政策制定者构成了权衡
28、。14.There are several reasons why monetary policy may not be effective in eliminating asset price bubbles.The main reason is that asset price bubbles are extremely difficult to identify in real time;in many cases,by the time there is a consensus among policymakers and the public that a bubble exists
29、,it is usually too late to implement policies to effectively deflate the bubble.And even if an asset price bubble is identified in a timely manner,monetary policy is often thought of as too blunt an instrument to be able to deal effectively with most asset price bubbles.In particular,interest rate c
30、hanges may have some modest short-term effects on reducing the asset price bubble,but the interest rate changes may have far more consequential effects on real economic activity and cause far worse collateral damage.在消除资产价格泡沫方面，货币政策可能无法发挥作用，有几个原因。主要原因在于，资产价格泡沫很难实时识别;在许多情况下，当决策者和公众一致认为存在泡沫的时候，实施有效抑制泡
31、沫的政策通常为时已晚。即使资产价格泡沫及时得到确认，货币政策也常常被认为是无法有效应对大多数资产价格泡沫的工具。特别是，利率变化可能对降低资产价格泡沫有一些短期影响，但利率变化可能对实际经济活动产生更重要的影响，并造成更糟糕的附带损害。15.In general,the question of appropriate policy response is one of minimizing loss.Credit-driven bubbles(such as the housing bubble experience that resulted in the global financial
32、crisis)can be far more devastating to the economy if a crash occurs than if policymakers acted to reduce the size of the bubble preemptively.In other words,raising interest rates to try to reduce the bubble may cause collateral damage to the economy,but it would result in far less damage than would
33、presumably occur if nothing were done at all and the bubble were allowed to continue to build.On the other hand,non-credit driven bubbles can more easily be dealt with after a crash;since financial markets generally function relatively normally following these types of bubble crashes,conventional mo
34、netary policy can be relatively effective at mitigating any recessionary conditions in the aftermath.Acting preemptively to address the bubble is likely to cause more collateral damage than is inflicted by any downturn related to a non-credit driven bubble crashing.一般而言，适当的政策应对问题是尽量减少损失。信贷驱动的泡沫(如导致全
35、球金融危机的房地产泡沫经历)对经济的破坏性可能远远大于政策制定者采取行动以先发制人地减少泡沫的规模。换句话说，提高利率以试图减少泡沫可能会对经济造成连带损害，但如果不采取任何措施，而泡沫被允许继续建造的话，那么它所造成的损害将会大大减少。另一方面，非信用驱动的泡沫在崩盘后更容易得到处理;由于金融市场通常在这类泡沫崩溃后相对正常地运行，因此，传统的货币政策在缓解危机后的任何Chapter 16 4/6 衰退条件下都是相对有效的。采取先发制人的行动来解决泡沫，可能会造成比任何与非信贷驱动的泡沫破裂有关的衰退造成更多的连带损失。16.Because a stock market bubble may
36、 be hard to identify(at least through consensus)and policy could cause more damage than necessary,in general Greenspan would advocate not acting directly on the stock market bubble.However,insofar as the stock market bubble raised wealth and increased consumption and investment,raising interest rate
37、s would be seen as prudent in order to maintain low,stable inflation and minimize near-term output fluctuations as a result of the higher wealth.In other words,the Greenspan Doctrine would say not to act directly on the bubble,but to pursue policy as normal to maintain price stability and stability
38、in real economic activity.由于股市泡沫可能难以确定(至少是通过协商一致)，而政策可能会造成不必要的损失，格林斯潘一般不会主张直接在股市泡沫上采取行动。然而，由于股市泡沫增加了财富，增加了消费和投资，提高利率将被视为一种谨慎的做法，以维持低、稳定的通货膨胀，并将近期的产出波动最小化，这是财富增加的结果。换句话说，格林斯潘的理论会说，不要直接在泡沫上采取行动，而是要采取正常的政策，以维持物价稳定和实际经济活动的稳定。17.(a)The ten-year bond is an intermediate target because it is not directly af
39、fected by the tools of the Fed,but is linked to economic activity.(b)The monetary base is a policy instrument because it can be directly affected by the tools of the Fed and is only linked to economic activity through its effect on the money supply.(c)M1 is an intermediate target because it is not d
40、irectly affected by the tools of the Fed and has some direct effect on economic activity.(d)The fed funds rate is a policy instrument because it can be directly affected by the tools of the Fed.(a)十年期债券是一个中间目标，因为它没有受到美联储工具的直接影响，而是与经济活动有关。(b)货币基础是一种政策工具，因为它可以直接受到美联储工具的影响，而且只通过其对货币供给的影响与经济活动有关。(c)M1 是
41、一个中间目标，因为它没有受到美联储工具的直接影响，而且对经济活动有直接影响。(d)联邦基金利率是一种政策工具，因为它可以直接受到美联储工具的影响。18.True.In such a world,hitting a reserves target would mean that the Fed would also hit its interest-rate target,or vice versa.Thus the Fed could pursue both a reserves target and an interest-rate target at the same time,but o
42、nly if there were no variation in reserve demand.19.The Fed can control the federal funds rate by buying and selling bonds in the open market.When the fed funds rate rises above the target level,the Fed would buy bonds,which would increase nonborrowed reserves and lower the interest rate to its targ
43、et level.Similarly,when the fed funds rate falls below the target level,the Fed would sell bonds to raise the interest rate to the target level.The resulting open market operations would of course affect the quantity of reserves and the money supply and cause them to change.The Fed would be giving u
44、p control of reserves and the money supply to pursue its interest-rate target.美联储可以通过在公开市场上买卖债券来控制联邦基金利率。当联邦基金利率高于目标水平时，美联储将购买债券，这将增加非借入的储备，并将利率降低到目标水平。同样，当联邦基金利率低于目标水平时，美联储将出售债券，将利率提高到目标水平。由此产生的公开市场操作当然会影响外汇储备的数量和货币供给，并导致它们发生变化。美联储将放弃对外汇储备和货币供给的控制，以实现其利率目标。20.The monetary base is more controllable
45、than M1 because it is more directly influenced by the tools of the Fed.It is measured more accurately and quickly than M1 because the Fed can calculate the base from its own balance sheet data,while it constructs M1 numbers from surveys of banks,which take some time to collect and are not always tha
46、t accurate.Even though the base is a better intermediate target on the grounds of measurability and controllability,it is not necessarily a better intermediate target because its link to economic activity may be weaker than that between M1 and economic activity.基础货币是比M1更直接更容易受美联储控制的工具。它比M1测量更准确，快速，因
47、为美联储可以从自己的资产负债表计算基础数据，,虽然从银行调查的数据来构造M1，这需要一些时间收集，并不总是准确的。尽管基于可测量性和可控性基础货币是一个更好的中间目标，但它不一定是一个更好的中间目标，因为它与经济活动的联系可能比M1和经济活动之间的联系要弱。Chapter 16 5/6 21.Disagree.Although nominal interest rates are measured more accurately and more quickly than reserve aggregates,the interest-rate variable that is of more
48、 concern to policymakers is the real interest rate.Because the measurement of real interest rates requires estimates of expected inflation,it is not true that real interest rates are necessarily measured more accurately and more quickly than reserves.Interest-rate targets are therefore not necessari
49、ly better than reserve targets.尽管名义利率比储备总量更准确、更迅速地衡量，但对政策制定者更关心的利率变量是实际利率。由于实际利率的衡量需要预期通胀的估计，因此实际利率比准备金更准确、更快地衡量是不正确的。因此，利率目标不一定比储备目标好。22.Bank behavior can lead to procyclical money growth because when interest rates rise in a boom,they decrease excess reserves and increase their borrowing from the
50、Fed,both of which lead to a higher money supply.Similarly,when interest rates fall in a recession,they increase excess reserves and decrease their borrowing from the Fed,leading to a lower money supply.The result is that the money supply will tend to grow faster in booms and slower in recessionsit i