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1、CONFIDENTIALIndustry Situation Analysis:Refrigeratoraaaaaa ELECTRONICS CHINA(aaaaaa China)This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey&Company.T
2、his material was used by McKinsey&Company during an oral presentation;it is not a complete record of the discussion.aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorKEY MESSAGESRefrigerator market is expected to grow at 4.6%annually from RMB 21 billion in 2000 to RMB 26 billion in 2005.Although growing at a rate as high
3、as 31.1%,side-by-side refrigerator market is expected to remain very limited in the next 5 yearsIn general,industry profitability for refrigerator is moderate.However,side-by-side refrigerators enjoy double digit return on salesExcept side-by-side refrigerator,refrigerator market is led by local pla
4、yers.However,there are opportunities for MNCs to successfully build up their position by focusing on mid-to-high-end segmentsThe refrigerator industry is relatively“low-tech”and has low entry barriers.Entry into WTO is not expected to have direct huge impact on the competitive environmentWith market
5、 shares around 3 to 4%,aaaaaa is moderately positioned in refrigerator market.1aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET ASSESSMENTMarket assessmentSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definition2aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET ASSESSMENTSupply(competitor)an
6、alysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionEvaluation criteria,weight and rating Assessment of market attractiveness Market assessmentProduct/service definitionRelevant regulatory environment and trends Relevant technological environment and trends Market size and gro
7、wth rateKey buying factorsDistribution channel structureMarket share by competitorIndustry profitability or economics3aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET DEFINITIONProduct/service definitionSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessment
8、4aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorPRODUCT SCOPE WHITE GOODSProduct groupProduct categoryAir conditioner Washing machineWhite goodsMicrowave Packaged A/CCentral A/C*Side-by-sideRefrigerator Product subcategories*Used by residentials and small businesses5aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET DEFINITIONSupply(co
9、mpetitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentRelevant regulatory environment and trends Relevant technological environment and trends 6aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorLOW-END REFRIGERATOR MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY LOCAL COMPETITORS.MNCS
10、COULD SUCCEED IN THE MID-TO-HIGH-END NICHE MARKETSRegulatoryTrends/issuesImplications Market has been fairly open and will remain soMost leading MNC players are already in China and have localized their production and sourcingTechnologicalIn general,technologies for refrigerators are not very compli
11、cated,esp.for low-end productsTechnology trend is to focus on digitization,artificial intelligence and environmental friendlinessEntry to WTO is not expected to have huge direct impact on current competitive environmentThe market is likely to be dominated by local players who are mostly not as stron
12、g in technology as MNC players but stronger in channel and sales capabilities,especially in the low-end segmentsMNC players are likely to succeed by being niche players and focusing on mid-to-high-end segmentsCompetition in product innovation is likely to focus on customization and localization7aaaa
13、aa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET DEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentMarket size and growth rateKey buying factorsDistribution channel structure8aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorALTHOUGH aaaaaaOND LARGEST MARKET AMONG WHITE
14、 GOODS,REFRIGERATOR MARKET GROWTH WILL BE MODESTSource:GFK,SINO-MR,Light Industry Information Center,aaaaaa,field interviews,McKinsey analysis2000Side-by-sideNon-side-by-side refrigerators20012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent21,13022,06023,05024,07025,14026,260Key driversRationale or assumptionsRep
15、lace-mentSince the penetration rate in China is high(80%),particularly in major cities(100%),majority of the demand for non-side-by-side refrigerators will come from replacement purchaseIncome growthIncrease in average disposable income drives demand for mid-to-large capacity and mid-to-high end ref
16、rigeratorsAverage priceDrops at 4%p.a.74961261662172854.64.431.1Refrigerator market size and growth RMB millions,percentUnits sold(non-side-by-side)millionsAverage sellingprice(non-side-by-side)9.414.313.112.111.110.21,8401,9101,9902,0702,1602,2508.8-4.09aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorTHE MARKET IS VERY
17、 SATIATEDReplacement is likely to be the key driver for future demandSource:China Statistics YearbookPenetration rate in ChinaTier 1Tier 2Tier 3Whole China103%101%87%80%10aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMID-TO-LARGE CAPACITY REFRIGERATORS HAVE BEEN CONSUMERs FAVORITE CHOICESource:SINO-MR,GfK 300LCAGR(00-
18、05)Percent8.69.19.4-18.44.5-22.54.9-5.117.38.7-18.4-18.411aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorSIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR MARKET WILL BE OF VERY LIMITED SIZE,DESPITE ITS HIGH GROWTH RATERMB millions,percent200020012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent 31.1Key driversRationale or assumptionsLiving spaceOnly househ
19、olds with kitchens over 30m2*are assumed to possibly consider side-by side refrigeratorsHousehold incomeOnly households with average annual income over RMB500,000 are assumed to possibly consider side-by-side refrigeratorsLifestyleMost wealthy people have maids who do grocery shopping everyday and t
20、hey are not in high demand for super large refrigeratorsPriceDrops at 2%p.a.*Construction areaSource:Zhongxi Trading Co.,aaaaaa,Lufthansa Department Store,Sci-tech Department Store,YYSC,team analysis3,5004,6806,2608,38011,21015,00033.8Units soldSide-by-side refrigeratormarket size and growthAverage
21、selling price21.020.620.219.819.419.0-2.0Key customer groupsChinese educated overseasExpatriatesWealthy local peopleKey marketsBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenShenyang12aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorPRICE IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR FOR CONSUMERS NON-SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR CHOICE WHILE BRAND AWARENESS IS
22、 MORE IMPORTANT FOR SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORFactors to consider when making non-side-by-side refrigerator purchasing decisionsPercent of respondents Source:IMI,SCSS2000,interview47282623191714141074Brand imagePriceCapacityEnergy-savingExterior designLow noiseNo frostAfter-sales serviceNon-CFCsFreez
23、er capacityOtherKBFs for side by side refrigeratorSoft commercials,such as putting a side-by-side refrigerator in the club of high-end residential area is very effective in increasing the awarenessMany potential customers are not fully aware of the existence of side-by-side refrigerators in China ma
24、rketWhen making purchase decisions,the key factors that customers consider are brand,design and featureMr.Gu Yong GuyManagerZXHY Trading Co.13aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorDIRECT COOLING IS STILL THE PREFERRED CHOICE ACROSS THE MARKETPercent Source:SINO-MR;GfK,field interview North West East China Alth
25、ough indirect-cooling refrigerator is frost-free,it tends to dry up the food.As a result,it is particularly unpopular in less humid areas such as Northern China North East North ChinaSouth West Central West Market share of direct cooling refrigerators in major cities,200014aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerato
26、rCHANNEL STRUCTURE FOR REFRIGERATORS IS FLAT,ESPECIALLY FOR LOCAL PLAYERS Source:InterviewManufacturersFirst tier distributorsRetailersLocal manufacturers=70-80%MNC manufacturers=30-50%Department storesHypermarketsSpecialty storesOthersLocal manufacturers=20-30%MNC manufacturers=50-70%15aaaaaa010807
27、BJ-refrigeratorAMONG ALL RETAIL CHANNELS,HYPER MARKETS AND SPECIALTY STORES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW FAST IN THE NEAR FUTURESales distribution by channel-white goodsPercentHyper marketsSpecialty stores*Department storesOthers5199820002003E*Includes electronic chains such as Guomei and DazhongSource:Saaa
28、aaa16aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorDISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE FOR SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORS DIFFER BY TIER CITIESTier 1 citiesManufacturers1st tier distributorsRetailers 2nd tier distributors20%70%End users10%Manufacturers1st tier distributorsRetailers 100%Tier 2 cities Source:Field interview17aaaaaa01080
29、7BJ-refrigeratorKELONs CHANNEL STRUCTURE FOR REFRIGERATORS Source:Annual report,field interviews Rongsheng Kelon is currently exploring other channel strategies:Set up sales and distribution companies with distributors Cooperate with large retailers such as Carrefour and Guomei in product planning K
30、elon Retailers 1st tier distributors 95%5%Kelon Retailers 1st tier distributors 40%60%Kelon 18aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorHAIER HAS A DISTINCTIVE DISTRIBUTION APPROACH WHICH IS HEAVILY FOCUSING ON DIRECT RETAIL SALES FOR BASE AND HUB CITIES.Source:Field interview;McKinsey analysisSpecialty shoresFirs
31、t tier cityaaaaaaond tier cityThird tier cityHaier shop-in-shopsRetailers in first tier citiesRetailers in some large aaaaaaond tier citiesSpecialty storeHaier shop in shopsRetailers in aaaaaaond tier citiesSpecialty storeHaier shop in shopsRetailers in third tier citiesSpecialty storesHaier A/C sal
32、es Co.Haier sales branches in small aaaaaaond tier citiesWholesales in some third tier citiesHaier sales center in first tier citiesHaier sales center in some large aaaaaaond tier citiesHaier sales centers in first and aaaaaaond tier citiesHaier sales branches in big third tier citiesEast regionNort
33、h regionWest regionSouth region19aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET DEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentMarket share by competitorIndustry profitability or economics20aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorWHILE THE MARKET IS G
34、ETTING MORE DOMINATED BY TOP PLAYERS COMBINED,MNC PLAYERS ARE GRADUALLY TAKING MORE SHARES*Rongsheng and Kelon combined Source:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC100%=1998Others 1999200037.415.58.72.732.435.713.88.25.95.728.030.912.38.610.08.826.1aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 8.69.19.4Haier and Kelon a
35、re the leading players.However,their market shares are decreasing Although latecomers to the market,Electrolux and Siemens are quickly building up their positions by focusing on mid-to high-end and high-end markets Compared to other MNC players,aaaaaas growth in the market is rather slow Millions un
36、its,percent Refrigerator market share of major players in major cities4.5-6.215.6270.7101.23.9-6.9-5.0CAGR(98-00)PercentaaaaaaHaier/Kelon/Meiling Siemens/Electrolux2.63.32.70.721aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorEAST,SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST CHINA SEEM TO BE THE WINNING TERRITORY FOR MNC PLAYERS*Kelon and Rongs
37、heng combined Source:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC100%=North China Others aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 2.33.50.5Electrolux and Siemens are doing particularly well in Southwest Apart from Southwest,MNC players are doing better in east China and South China,relatively more affluent areas aaaaaa is
38、 relatively strong in East China and South China North East East China Central South South West North West 0.90.71.432.011.68.59.85.31.730.836.616.111.57.65.90.421.926.06.29.79.48.210.130.331.014.36.99.710.53.324.420.411.09.819.218.50.320.833.818.29.68.60.124.15.6Market share in major cities by geog
39、raphy,2000Million units,percentaaaaaaHaier/Kelon/Meiling Siemens/Electrolux22aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorLOCAL LEADING PLAYERS ARE DOMINATING IN ALMOST ALL PRICE SEGMENTS,MNC PLAYERS TEND TO BE STRONG IN MID-TO-HIGH END MARKETS*Another Kelons brand Source:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC100%=4,0002.01.92.024.112.51.
40、217.819.624.80016.012.60.17.74.145.713.828.316.50.18.510.031.51.93.447.39.71.15.98.87.21.318.736.32.03.82.919.326.09.40.429.80.14.34.70.348.10.312.5Rongsheng*0Market share in major cities by price band,2000Million units,percentElectroluxKelon/RongshengSiemensaaaaaa23aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorLOCAL
41、PLAYERS ARE DOMINANT IN MOST PRODUCT SEGMENTS,MNC PLAYERS HAVE STRENGTH IN MID-TO-LARGE CAPACITY MARKETS*Another Kelons brand Source:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC100%=100LOthers aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 0.21.00.7Haier is leading in most markets Electrolux and Siemens have strong position in
42、mid-to-large capacity markets aaaaaa is very strong in small capacity(300L2.60.03Rongsheng*40.47.8036.90.119.851.213.401.49.602.821.424.823.30.59.07.76.51.127.129.89.10.813.75.27.54.229.735.511.70.85.911.010.12.922.123.45.41.17.824.12.61.234.417.28.55.25.013.730.419.90.125.1019.02.61.152.00.20Market
43、 share in major cities by product type,2000aaaaaaHaier/Rongsheng/Kelon Siemens/Electrolux24aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorGE IS THE LEADING PLAYER IN SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR MARKET 100%=Others*aaaaaa 1,0003,500The market is dominated by MNC playersaaaaaa has significant share in the market.However,GE
44、clearly dominatesNew players such as Haier are entering the market The high-end side-by-side refrigerator market is likely to remain MNCs territory while“local players”will focus on lower-end segmentsUnits,Percent Unit market share60*Includes Haier,LG,Whirlpool,etc.Source:Zhongxi Trading Co.,aaaaaaG
45、E19992000Growthpercent250N/A31921125aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorKEY MNC PLAYERS ENJOY PRICE PREMIUMS IN SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORSGE entered the market first and has the strongest brand image.Its price is the highest aaaaaas price is 10-20%lower than GEsOther players prices are on average 10%lower th
46、an aaaaaas Source:Field interview;GfK26aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorKELON AND MEILINGS FINANCIALS SHOW THAT MANUFACTURERS PROFIT SUFFERED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW Source:Morgan Stanley Dean Witter report,annual reportsMeiling19972001E2000E19991998KelonEBIT marginPercent27
47、aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKET ASSESSMENTMarket assessmentSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionEvaluation criteria,weight and rating Assessment of market attractiveness 28aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorEvaluation criteria WeightPercent Attract
48、ive-ness ratingMarket assessment MARKET ASSESSMENT-NON-SIDE-BY-SIDE REFERIGERATOROverall environment analysis China environment attractiveness Demand(customer)analysis China(related)market sizeChina(related)market growth rate Supplier(competitor analysis)Industry profitability in related markets20 2
49、0 20 20 6%21.0B RMB7 1015.2Evaluation basisProfitability trend20 Moderate decline44%429aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorEvaluation criteria WeightPercent Attractive-ness ratingMarket assessment MARKET ASSESSMENT-SIDE-BY-SIDE REFERIGERATOROverall environment analysis China environment attractiveness Demand
50、(customer)analysis China(related)market sizeChina(related)market growth rate Supplier(competitor analysis)Industry profitability in related markets20 20 20 20 7%74 MRMB7 175.2Evaluation basisProfitability trend20 Sustain731%430aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorAPPENDIX31aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorDEFINITIO