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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET:TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter StangerE-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead,Long Live E-Commerce”-The Industry Standard,April 2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”-F,April 2000“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods?Th
2、e answer is no,even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”-Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures.Look at A-if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”-Warren Packar
3、d,Draper Fisher JurvetsonTOM SIEBELCEO,Siebel Systems“If you cant generate profits,significant market share and customer satisfaction,you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side,I dont think anyone will survive.They are all gone.”THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBExpediaDEPriceli
4、neeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4BIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28,1794THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860-18901895-1925FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-201910
5、19151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs.with increased throughput.Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF
6、+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs.$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost($/MB)LONG DISTANCE Wholesale(Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAcc
7、ount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALS
8、ResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organiza
9、tionsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T,MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors,integrated circuits,memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing,sales,and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixC
10、ompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM,Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge po
11、wer plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power(UK)Electrobel(Belgium)RWE(Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling(Norway)EnronUnited Utilities(UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity(UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en(Ger-ma
12、ny)1990199519851990Statkraft(Norway)Oslo Energi(Norway)EVO(Germany)IVO(Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper,chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/enlargeStore/d
13、isplay Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak(66%)FujiKodak(Qualex)(40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manufacturersFrame manufacturersMail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper,i
14、nkReprint/enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing(at home)Digital value chain HP,Sony and others well-positionedMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)Sony(35%)HP(19%)Olympus(13%)Kodak(12%)HP(70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIBM microdriveSonyCompact FlashE-mail postingPersonal Web siteZing
15、ShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe(Photoshop)Standard with camera and available free onlineEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0,Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group;SEC filings;Media Metrix and Harris Interact
16、ive data;industry association reports;analyst reportsNote:Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10%share in several categoriesCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in%of Revenues19992000Source:The State of Online Ret
17、ailing 2.0,3.0,4.0;Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting GroupADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE,Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecomRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth=valueProfitable growth=valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeC
18、ompetitive advantageTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces,Circa 2010Technology)GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource:BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)A PERSPE
19、CTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/assets)Cash flow margin in%of sales(%)RetailConstruction MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource:BCG AnalysisA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAsset productivity focuse-Procuremente-SalesMargin focusOpportunity SpaceSource:BCG Analysis