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1、McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-0ChapterOutline26.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?26.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients26.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?26.4SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels26.5Summary&ConclusionsMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 200
2、2 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-126.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?Itformulatesthemethodbywhichfinancialgoalsaretobeachieved.Therearetwodimensions:1.ATimeFrameShortrunisprobablyanythinglessthanayear.Longrunisanythingoverthat;usuallytakentobeatwo-yeartofive-yearperiod.2.A
3、LevelofAggregationEachdivisionandoperationalunitshouldhaveaplan.Asthecapital-budgetinganalysesofeachofthefirmsdivisionsareaddedup,thefirmaggregatesthesesmallprojectsasabigproject.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-226.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlan
4、ning?ScenarioAnalysisEachdivisionmightbeaskedtopreparethreedifferentplansfortheneartermfuture:A Worst CaseA Normal CaseA Best CaseMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-3WhatWillthePlanningProcessAccomplish?InteractionsTheplanmustmakeexplicitthelinkag
5、esbetweeninvestmentproposalsandthefirmsfinancingchoices.OptionsTheplanprovidesanopportunityforthefirmtoweighitsvariousoptions.FeasibilityAvoidingSurprisesNobodyplanstofail,butmanyfailtoplan.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-426.2AFinancialPlannin
6、gModel:TheIngredients1.Salesforecast2.Proformastatements3.Assetrequirements4.Financialrequirements5.Plug6.EconomicassumptionsMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-5SalesForecastAllfinancialplansrequireasalesforecast.Perfectforeknowledgeisimpossiblesi
7、ncesalesdependontheuncertainfuturestateoftheeconomy.Businessesthatspecializeinmacroeconomicandindustryprojectscanbehelpinestimatingsales.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-6ProFormaStatementsThefinancialplanwillhaveaforecastbalancesheet,aforecasti
8、ncomestatement,andaforecastsources-and-uses-of-cashstatement.Thesearecalled pro formastatementsorpro formas.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-7AssetRequirementsThefinancialplanwilldescribeprojectedcapitalspending.Inadditionitwillthediscusstheprop
9、osedusesofnetworkingcapital.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-8FinancialRequirementsTheplanwillincludeasectiononfinancingarrangements.Dividendpolicyandcapitalstructurepolicyshouldbeaddressed.Ifnewfundsaretoberaised,theplanshouldconsiderwhatkindso
10、fsecuritiesmustbesoldandwhatmethodsofissuancearemostappropriate.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-9PlugCompatibilityacrossvariousgrowthtargetswillusuallyrequireadjustmentinathirdvariable.Supposeafinancialplannerassumesthatsales,costs,andnetincome
11、willriseatg1.Further,supposethattheplannerdesiresassetsandliabilitiestogrowatadifferentrate,g2.Thesetworatesmaybeincompatibleunlessathirdvariableisadjusted.Forexample,compatibilitymayonlybereachedisoutstandingstockgrowsatathirdrate,g3.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.
12、All rights reserved.26-10EconomicAssumptionsTheplanmustexplicitlystatetheeconomicenvironmentinwhichthefirmexpectstoresideoverthelifeoftheplan.Interestrateforecastsarepartoftheplan.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-11ABriefExampleTheRosengartenCor
13、porationisthinkofacquiringanewmachine.Themachinewillincreasesalesfrom$20millionto$22million10%growth.Thefirmbelievesthatitsassetsandliabilitiesgrowdirectlywithitslevelofsales.Itsprofitmarginonsalesis10%,anditsdividend-payoutratiois50%.Willthefirmbeabletofinancegrowthinsaleswithretainedearningsandfor
14、ecastincreasesindebt?McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-12ABriefExampleCurrentBalanceSheetProformaBalanceSheet(millions)ExplanationCurrentassets$6$6.630%ofsalesFixedassets$24$26.4120%ofsalesTotalassets$30$33150%ofsalesShort-termdebt$10$1150%ofsale
15、sLong-termdebt$6$6.630%ofsalesCommonstock$4$4ConstantRetainedEarnings$10$11.1NetIncomeTotalfinancing$30$32.7$300,000FundsneededMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-13ABriefExample:EFNTheexternalfundsneededMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGra
16、w-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-14TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:1.Expressbalance-sheetitemsthatvarywithsalesasapercentageofsales.2.Multiplythepercentagesdetermineinstep1byprojectedsalestoobtaintheamountforthefutureperiod.3.Whennopercentageapplies,simplyinsertthepreviousbalan
17、ce-sheetfigureintothefutureperiod.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-15TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(continued)4.ComputeProjectedretainedearningsasProjectedretainedearnings=Presentretainedearnings+ProjectednetincomeCashdividends5.Add
18、theassetaccountstodetermineprojectedassets.Next,addtheliabilitiesandequityaccountstodeterminethetotalfinancing;anydifferenceistheshortfall.Thisequalstheexternalfundsneeded.6.UsetheplugtofillEFN.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-1626.3WhatDetermin
19、esGrowth?Firmsfrequentlymakegrowthforecastsonexplicitpartoffinancialplanning.Ontheotherhand,thefocusofthiscoursehasbeenonshareholderwealthmaximization,oftenexpressedthroughtheNPVcriterion.Onewaytoreconcilethetwoistothinkofgrowthasanintermediategoalthatleadstohighervalue.Alternatively,ifthefirmiswill
20、ingtoacceptnegativeNPVprojectsjusttogrowinsize,theshareholders(butnotnecessarilythemangers)willbeworseoff.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-1726.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?Thereisalinkagebetweentheabilityofafirmtogrowanditsfinancialpolicywhen the firm
21、 does not issue equity.TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesisgivenby:McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-18TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesT=ratiooftotalassetstosalesp=netprofitmarginonsalesd=dividendpayoutratioAgooduseofthesustainablegrowthrateistocompa
22、reafirmssustainablegrowthratewiththeiractualgrowthratetodetermineifthereisabalancebetweengrowthandprofitability.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-19UsesoftheSustainableGrowthRateAcommerciallenderwouldwanttocompareapotentialborrowersactualgrowthra
23、tewiththeirsustainablegrowthrate.Iftheactualgrowthrateismuchhigherthanthesustainablegrowthrate,theborrowerrunstheriskof“growingbroke”andanylendingmustbeviewedasadownpaymentonamuchmorecomprehensivelendingarrangementthanjustoneroundoffinancing.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Compani
24、es,Inc.All rights reserved.26-2026.4SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModelsFinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichfinancialpolicesarethebest.Theyareoftensimplificationsofrealityandtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplan,thefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance
25、.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-21Summary&ConclusionsFinancial planning forces the firm to think aboutandforecastthefuture.ItinvolvesBuildingacorporatefinancialmodel.Describing different scenarios of future developmentfrombesttoworstcase.Using
26、 the models to construct pro forma financialstatements.Runningthemodelunderdifferentscenarios(sensitivityanalysis).Examiningthefinancialimplicationsofultimatestrategicplans.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.26-22Summary&ConclusionsCorporatefinancialplanningshouldnotbecomeanendinanofitself.Ifitdoes,itwillprobablyfocusonthewrongthings.The alternative to financial planning is stumblingintothefuture.