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1、McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-1第第6章章6资本预算的其他方法McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-2本章概要6.1 为什么要使用净现值？6.2 回收期法6.3 折现回收期法6.4 平均会计收益率法6.5 内部收益率法6.6 内部收益率法存在的问题6.7 盈利指数6.8
2、资本预算实务6.9 本章小结McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-36.1 为什么要使用净现值？接受净现值为正的项目将有利于股东：净现值使用了现金流量净现值包含了项目的全部现金流量净现值对现金流量进行了合理的折现McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-4净现值法净现值(NPV) =
3、 未来现金流量的总现值+初期投资预测净现值1. 预测未来现金流量：有多少？在什么时间？2. 预测折现率3. 预测初期投资成本最低验收标准：当NPV 0时接受排序标准：选择 NPV最大的项目McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-5净现值法的贡献1. 净现值使用了现金流量（而不是会计收入）2. 净现值包含了项目的全部现金流量3. 净现值对现金流量进行了合理的折现再投资假设：净现值法假设所有的现金流都可以以该折现率进行再投资。McGraw-H
4、ill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-66.2 回收期法要“收回”初始投资需要多长时间？投资期=收回初始投资需要的年数最低验收标准 管理部门制定排序标准： 管理部门制定McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-7例子McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 20
5、05 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-8 回收期法缺陷忽视了货币的时间价值忽视了回收期后的现金流反对长期项目决策取决于主观臆断按回收期法确定的项目可能并不能形成正的净现值优点：易于理解偏向于流动性McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-9忽视了回收期后的现金流McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGr
6、aw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-106.3 折现回收期法在考虑货币的时间价值后，“收回”初始投资需要多长时间？当拥有了已贴现的现金流后，你可能还会计算净现值。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-116.4 平均会计收益率法平均会计收益率法是另一个引人注意的方法，但仍然有致命缺陷。排序标准和最低验收标准都是由管理部门指定的。平均投资额平均净收益平均会计收益 McGraw-Hil
7、l/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-12McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-13平均会计收益率法缺陷：忽视了货币的时间价值采用任意的目标收益率基于账面价值，而不是现金流量和市场价值优点：数据容易从会计账目上获得易于计算McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e
8、 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-14 6.5 内部收益率法内部收益率：使净现值为零的的折现率 基本的投资法则：若内部收益率大于贴现率，项目可以接受；若内部收益率小于贴现率，项目不能接受。排序标准： 选择内部收益率最高的项目缺陷：没有区别投资和融资内部收益率可能并不存在，或者有多重内部收益率 互斥项目之间的问题优点：易于理解和交流McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Res
9、erved.6-15内部收益率法：例子考虑下面这个项目：0123$50$100$150-$200该项目的内部收益率为 19.44%32)1 (150$)1 (100$)1 (50$2000IRRIRRIRRNPVMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-16该例子的净现值盈利分析Discount RateNPV0%$100.004%$71.048%$47.3212%$27.7916%$11.6520%($1.74)24%($12.88)28
10、%($22.17)32%($29.93)36%($36.43)40%($41.86)如果我们用图表表示净现值和折现率，可以看到内部收益率与横坐标相交。IRR = 19.44%McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-176.6 内部收益率法存在的问题是投资还是融资？多重内部收益率是借入还是借出？规模问题时间问题McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Compa
11、nies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-18互斥项目与独立项目互斥项目：在众多潜在项目中只能选择一个项目。 将所有选择排序并选择最优的项目。独立项目：接受或拒绝某个项目都不会影响到对其他项目的选择。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-19投资还是融资？McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All
12、 Rights Reserved.6-20投资还是融资？McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.投资还是融资？融资项目的基本投资准则：内部收益率小于贴现率时，项目可以接受；若内部收益率大于贴现率，项目不能接受。6-21McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-22多重内部报酬率McGraw
13、-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-23规模问题McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.规模问题净现值:不断增加的内部报酬率：6-24McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All
14、Rights Reserved.时间问题6-25McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-26时间问题($4,000.00)($3,000.00)($2,000.00)($1,000.00)$0.00$1,000.00$2,000.00$3,000.00$4,000.00$5,000.000%10%20%30%40%Discount rateNPVProject AProject B10.55% = crossover rate16.04%
15、 = IRRA12.94% = IRRBMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-27计算两个项目IRR相等时的利率Year Project A Project B Project A-B Project B-A 0 ($10,000) ($10,000)$0$01$10,000$1,000$9,000($9,000)2$1,000$1,000$0$03$1,000$12,000($11,000)$11,000($3,000.00)($2,
16、000.00)($1,000.00)$0.00$1,000.00$2,000.00$3,000.000%5%10%15%20%Discount rateNPVA-BB-A10.55% = IRRMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-286.7 盈利指数（PI）最低验收准则： 接受，如果 PI 1排序准则： 选择PI最高的项目缺陷：互斥项目之间的问题优点：当可用的投资额有限时，可能会有用易于理解和交流初始投资现金流量的现值初始投资所带来的
17、后续PIMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-29假设公司有第3个项目，同时假设：（a）赫尔姆芬尼根(Hiram Finnegan)公司的项目之间互相独立；（b）公司只有2,000万美元可供投资。项目3的现金流如下：请问公司应该如何选择？McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-30
18、6.8 资本预算实务因行业而异：有些公司运用回收期法，有些公司运用会计收益率法。大的企业最常用的方法是内部收益率法和净现值法。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-316.8 资本预算实务McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-32资本预算实务计算以下两个项目的内部收益率（IRR）
19、、净现值（NPV）、盈利指数（PI）和投资回收期（payback period）。假设要求的投资回报率为10%。 Year Project A Project B0-$200-$1501$200$502$800$1003-$800$150McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-33资本预算实务Project AProject BCF0-$200.00-$150.00PV0 of CF1-3$241.92$240.80NPV =$41.92
20、$90.80IRR = 0%, 100% 36.19%PI =1.20961.6053 McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-34资本预算实务Payback Period:Project AProject B Time CF Cum. CFCF Cum. CF0-200-200-150-1501200050-100280080010003-8000150150Payback period for project B = 2 years.
21、Payback period for project A = 1 or 3 years?McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-35NPV 和 IRR 的关系Discount rate NPV for A NPV for B0%0.00150.0020%59.2647.9240%59.48-8.6060%42.19-43.0780%20.85-65.64100%0.00-81.25120%-18.93-92.52McGraw-Hill/I
22、rwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-36Project AProject B($200)($100)$0$100$200$300$400-15%0%15%30%45%70%100%130%160%190%Discount ratesNPVIRR 1(A)IRR (B)NPVCross-over RateIRR 2(A)McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-376.9 本章小结本章涉及了几种常用的资本预算方法，作为对净现值法的补充回收期法平均会计收益率法内部收益率法盈利指数McGraw-Hill/IrwinCorporate Finance, 7/e 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6-38Quiz