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1、AluminumMarketAnalysisGroup3 魏魏会会地地,李李春春晖晖,邓邓丽丽娇娇,彭彭湃湃,李李艳超艳超,高謇高謇,戴亚戴亚,王喜越王喜越商务英语商务英语061班班1.Foundamentalanalysis1.1Quotation1.2Supplyanddemand1.3Relatedforeignfuturescontract-AluminuminLME1.4Relatedeconomicindex1.5Effectsofrelatedcommodities1.6Relatedevents1.7Conclusionsabouttheeconomicsituation上海期
2、货交易所期货合约行情2009年06月08日品品种种交割交割月月前结算前结算今开盘今开盘最高价最高价最低价最低价收盘价收盘价结算价结算价涨跌涨跌1涨跌涨跌2成交成交手手持仓手持仓手/变化变化0912135701345013495133001345013425-120-14584248002901001136101354013540133701345013490-160-120138990461002136801353013530134801348013485-200-1951262261.1QuotationSHaluminum1001isquotedas13490Yuanpertonin200
3、9,6,81.2SupplyanddemandThesupplyisinexcessofthedemand.Therearemanyaluminumleftunusedinthehomemarket.Moreover,agreatdealofaluminumareimported.However,thecurrentaluminumpricestemporarilydeviatefromtherelationshipbetweensupplyanddemandandthereisabullishtrendinthemarket.Thepresentsituationisinfavorofgoi
4、nglong.1.3AluminuminLMEName LME Al 03 highest：1655.0 Lowest：1595.0 Newest：1638.5Purchasing price：1637.0 Selling price：1640.0 Position：825480 ton Inventory:4,274,550 ton1.4Relatedeconomicindex-DowJonesIndustrialAverage品种名称开盘最高最低最新涨幅%成交量持仓量日增仓昨收道琼工业8764.838802.288725.278735.47-0.33%63738292-08764.49NA
5、SDAQ品种名称开盘最高最低最新涨幅%成交量持仓量日增仓昨收纳斯达克1850.481859.221846.34 1850.70 0.45%576925696-01842.40TopCountriesinGDP,2008(billiondollars)countryGDPincreasingrate-EU189301.5%1USA143301.4%2Japan48440.7%3China42229.0%09GDPThefirstseasonof2009,GDPoftheUSAis$3518.875billion,decreasing by 2.6%.Thefirstseasonof2009,GD
6、Pof16Europeancountriesis239.1297,decreasing by 2.5%;whilethatof27countriesis2929.9779billion,decreasing by 2.4%.Inchina,GDPis￥6574.5billion,increasing 6.1%.CPI&PPIInMay2009,ChinasCPIdecreased by 1.4%andPPIdecreased by 7.2%comparedwithlastMay.IntheUSA,CPIinAprilwasclosetolastmonth,butdecreased 0.7%co
7、mparedwithlastyear.PPIinAprilincreased 0.3%anddecreased 1.2%inMarch.CPIinEuropeincrease0.6%,butremainedthesameinMay.AndPPIkeptdecreasingby4.6%,madeitthegreatestdropinannualrate.ConclusionTheUSAandEuropeareexperiencingeconomicdepreciation,theincreasingrateisslowingdown,andwontrecoversoon.Chinaexperie
8、ncedlessrecession,andwillkeepincreasing.1.5EffectsofrelatedcommoditiesThefuturespricesofCopper,zinc,andaluminumarecloselyrelatedandsharecorrespondenttendency.Becausethepricesofcopperandzinctendtoincreaseasshownbelow,thepriceofaluminummayalsoincreaseinthefuture.ThepriceofSHfuturescopper1001from13th,M
9、ayto10th,Junesawanincrease.ThepriceofSHfutureszinc1001from13th,Mayto10th,Junealsosawanincrease.1.6RelatedeventsThedollarhasweakenedininternationalcurrencytrading.RussiastoppedsupplyingaluminumtoAsia.Thepolicyofsupportingautomobileindustryinchinaincreasesthesalesofcarsanddemandofaluminum.Fundstakepar
10、tinthealuminumfuturesexchange.Americanautomobileindustry,representedbyGM,isseriouslyweakenedduringtheeconomicrecession.Non-FerrousMetalIndustryPromotionPlanningwaspassedon2，25of2009有色金属产业调整和振兴规划TheholdingofLargereserves.1.7ConclusionOnthewhole,theadvantagesoutweighthedisadvantagesintermsofeconomicsi
11、tuation.So,itisadvisabletogolong.2Technicalanalyses2.1价格分析-日K线（1）价格分析-日K线（2）价格分析-周K线（1）价格分析-周K线（2）价格分析-月K线（1）价格分析-月K线（2）2.2沪铝1001日K线图09/5/13-09/06/10沪铝1001周K线图08/08/29-09/06/10沪铝1001月K线图05/04/28-09/06/102.3 The analysis of the price of the aluminum:At present,the price line of the aluminum is upward
12、.We can analysis it withthe following candlestick charts.Resistance line Support line With the help of the daily candlestick chart,we draw the support line and the resistance line.The two lines form the upward parallelogram(平行四边形)。With the help of the weekly candlestick chart,we draw the support lin
13、e and the resistance line.The two lines are upward together,so they form the wedge（楔形）Resistance line Resistance line Support line With the help of the monthly candlestick chart,we draw the resistance line and the support line.The resistance line is upward,while the support line is horizontal.The sh
14、ort-term price trend of the aluminum is upward,the medium-term price trend and the long-term price trend of the aluminum are also upward.They indicate the bullish direction.Therefore,we can buy at support in uptrend.Conclusions from the three candlestick chart3.conclusionPricetrends：upwardmoderatelySuggestions:golongwithacautiousvolume