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1、CHAPTER 1Introduction to Macroeconomics1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsHow much richer are we than our parents?How much richer will our children be than our grandparents were?Will changing jobs be easy or hard in five years?How many of us will have jobs
2、in five years?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsWill the businesses we work for vanish as demand for the products they make dries up?Will inflation make us poor by destroying our savings or rich by eliminating our debts?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill C
3、ompanies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomics.is the subdiscipline of economics that tries to answer these six questionsis the branch of economics related to the economy as a whole4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomists.try to figure out why overall eco
4、nomic activity rises and fallstry to understand what determines the level and rate of change of the price levelstudy other variables that play a major role in determining the overall levels of production,income,employment,and prices5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved
5、.Why Macroeconomics MattersCultural Literacyability to follow and participate in public debates and discussionsunderstanding of news reports on changes in the economy6Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.1-The Daily Flow of Economic News7Copyright 2002 by The
6、McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Why Macroeconomics MattersSelf-Interesteffects of macroeconomy on our daily livesunderstanding of changing opportunities as the economy fluctuates8Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Why Macroeconomics MattersCivic Respons
7、ibilitymore informed votingmore responsible macroeconomic policy9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomic PolicyGrowth Policypolicies to accelerate or decelerate long-run economic growthmost important policies for the long-run10Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hi
8、ll Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.2-Long-Run Economic Growth:Sweden and Argentina,1900-200011Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomic PolicyStabilization Policypolicies to smooth out the business cycle by diminishing the depth of recessions and de
9、pressionsbusiness cycles are fluctuations in production and employmentbooms or expansions occur when production grows and unemployment fallsrecessions or depressions occur when production falls and unemployment rises12Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.3-The
10、 American Business Cycle:Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the Long-Run Growth Trend13Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomics versus MicroeconomicsMacroeconomistsexamine the economy as a wholefocus on the feedback from one component of the econom
11、y to anotherstudy the total level of production and employmentbelieve that imbalances between supply and demand may be resolved by changes in quantities rather than prices14Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Macroeconomics versus MicroeconomicsMicroeconomistsstudy th
12、e markets for single commodities and the behavior of individual households and firmsfocus on how competitive markets allocate resources to create consumer and producer surplusassume that imbalances between demand and supply are resolved by changes in prices15Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Compani
13、es,Inc.All rights reserved.Economic Statistics and Economic ActivityEconomic activity is the pattern of transactions in which things of real,useful value are created,transformed,and exchanged.National Income and Product Accounts(NIPA)reported by the U.S.Commerce Departments Bureau of Economic Analys
14、is16Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Table 1.2-The Flow of Economic Data,2000-200117Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesReal Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is corrected for changes in the price level(real)includ
15、es the replacement of worn-out and obsolete equipment and structures as well as new investment(gross)counts economic activity that happens in the United States(domestic)represents the production of final goods and services(product)18Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved
16、.Six Key Economic VariablesReal Gross Domestic Productoften divided by the number of workers in the economymeasures how well the economy produces goods and services that people find usefuldoes not indicate the relative distribution of the nations economic productis an imperfect measure of economic w
17、ell-being19Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.4-Officially Measured Real GDP per Worker in the United States20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Unemployment Rateto be unemployed,a person must wa
18、nt to work and be actively looking for a job(but have not yet found one)the labor force consists of those who are employed and those who are unemployedthe unemployment rate is equal to the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force21Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rig
19、hts reserved.Figure 1.5-The U.S.Unemployment Rate22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Unemployment Ratefrictional unemployment occurs because workers and firms spend time searching for the best matchcyclical unemployment occurs during re
20、cessions and depressionsthe unemployment rate is the best indicator of how well the economy is doing relative to its productive potential23Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Inflation Rateis a measure of how fast the overall price level
21、is risinghyperinflation occurs when the price level is rising by more than 20%per month24Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.6-Inflation in the United States25Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe In
22、terest Rateis important because it governs the redistribution of purchasing power across timethe many different interest rates in the economy vary by duration and degree of riskoften move up and down together26Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic Varia
23、blesThe Interest Ratenominal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of moneydoes not take into account the effects of inflationreal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of goods and servicesdoes take into account the effects of inflation27Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.A
24、ll rights reserved.Figure 1.7-U.S.Real Interest Rates,1960-199928Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Stock Marketis heard about most often(every day)is an index of expectations for the futurea high value means that investors expect econom
25、ic growth to be rapid,profits to be high,and unemployment to be low29Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.8-Real Stock Index Prices30Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rategoverns the term
26、s on which international trade and investment take placenominal exchange rate is the rate at which monies of different countries can be exchanged for one anotherreal exchange rate is the rate at which the goods and services produced in different countries can be exchanged for one another31Copyright
27、2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rateif domestic currency appreciatesits value in terms of other currencies increasesforeign-produced goods are relatively cheap for domestic buyersimports are likely to be highdomestic-made goods are rel
28、atively expensive for foreignersexports are likely to be low32Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rateif domestic currency depreciatesits value in terms of other currencies declinesdomestic-produced goods are relatively cheap for
29、 foreign buyersexports are likely to be highforeign-made goods are relatively expensive for domestic buyersimports are likely to be low33Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 1.9-The U.S.Real Exchange Rate:The Dollar against a Composite Indexof Foreign Currencies
30、34Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroeconomic SituationThe United States-2001economic growth has slowed to a very weak paceforecast for 2001 is that real GDP will grow by no more than 1.8%interest rates lowered through Fed policydue to lags,effects of
31、 lower interest rates will not be felt until end of 2001(at the earliest)inflation continues to be low35Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroeconomic SituationThe United States-recent pastfrom early 1990s to 2000,there was an economic boomunemployment f
32、ell during the 1990slowest unemployment rate in two decades(4%)real wages increased only slightlyhelped to keep inflation low36Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroeconomic SituationEuropeeconomic growth in countries belonging to the European Monetary U
33、nion slowinglow inflationless than 2%per yearrelatively high unemploymentnear 10%37Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroeconomic SituationJapanslow growth ratereal GDP grew only 1.8%in 2000real GDP is expected to grow only by 1.4%in 2001deflation is occ
34、urringthe overall price level fell by 0.7%in 200038Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryMacroeconomics is the study of the overall economy.There are three key reasons to study macroeconomicsto gain cultural literacyto understand how economic trends affec
35、t you personallyto exercise your responsibility as a voter and citizen39Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryThe key indicators in macroeconomics arereal GDPthe unemployment ratethe inflation ratethe interest ratethe level of the stock marketthe exchange rate40Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.