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1、电大社会统计学名词解释资料小抄1社会统计学 社会统计学是运用统计学的一般原理，对社会各种静态结构和动态趋势进行定量描述或推断的一种专门方法与技术。人们既用它来分析已经发生和正在发生的现象，也用它来估计预测未来可能发生的现象。2国势学派产生于德国，其创始人为康令和阿亨瓦尔。该学派一直以统计学为名，但只用文字记述，不用数字计量，历史上人们将该学派称为“有名无实”学派。3政治算术学派该学派的创始人为英国人格朗特和威廉配第。该学派“用数字、重量、尺度来表达自己想说的问题”，虽然没有使用统计学这一名词，但所使用的社会宏观数量对比和分析方法揭示了统计学所要研究的内容，因此历史上人们将这一学派称为“有实无名
2、”学派。马克思对配第评价很高，誉他为“政治经济学之父，在某种程度上也可以说是统计学的创始人”。4数理统计学派 该学派的创始人未比利时人凯特勒，其最大的贡献就是将法国的古典概率论引入统计学，用纯数学的方法对社会现象进行研究。由于把概率论引进统计学，使社会随机现象数量方面的研究提高了准确性。因此，一门兼有数学和统计学双重意义的学科被命名为“数理统计学”。凯特勒也被人称为“现代统计学之父”。5大量观察法 大量观察法，就是就总体中足够多的单位进行调查和综合分析，用以反映社会总体的数量特征。大量观察法是统计调查阶段的重要方法6大数规律大数规律是随机现象出现的基本规律，它的一般意义是：观察过程中每次取得的
3、结果可能不同（因为具有偶然性），但大量重复观察结果的平均值却几乎接近某个确定的数值。7描述性统计 描述性统计，就是讨论范围仅以搜索的资料本身为限，而不予以扩大。早期的统计都是描述统计。8推论性统计 推论性统计，主要是依据概率论，研究如何依据有限资料对总体性质作推断，从而使统计的功能大为扩充。是在树立统计学派之后发展起来的，属于比较现代的统计分析方法。9样本和（或）样本总体 样本或样本总体，是通过抽样得到的用以推断总体特征的那个“部分”。10标志 标志是说名总体单位属性或数量特征的名称。11虚拟变量 当品质标志的变异性用离散变量来表达时，这个变量可称虚拟变量。12指标体系 指标体系就是一系列有内
4、在联系得统计指标集合体。13总体和总体单位 总体，就是作为统计研究对象的、由许多具有共性的单位构成的整体。也有人称之为母体。构成总体的每一个个体称为总体单位，简称单位，也称为个体。14中位数把总体单位某一数量标志的各个数值，按大小顺序排列，位于正中处的变量值即为中位数。15众数在一组资料中，出现次数（或频数）呈现“峰”值的那些变量值。16调和平均数N个变量值倒数算术平均数的倒数，也称倒数平均数。17几何平均数：N个变量值连乘积的N次方根。18平均指标：就是表明同质总体在一定条件下某一数量标志所达到的一般水平。19.显著水平能允许犯第一类错误的概率叫做检验的显著性水平，它决定了否定域的大小。20
5、.总体参数已知一总体分布，可求得它的特征值。根据总体分布计算的特征值，即根据总体各个单位标志值计算的统计指标，在推论统计中称为总体参数。总体均值和总体标准差(或方差)是反映总体分布特征最重要的两个总体参数，习惯上分别记作和(或2)。21.检验统计量 检验统计量是关于样本的一个综合指标，但与参数估计中讨论的统计量有所不同，它不用作估测，而只用作检验。22.中心极限定理如果从一个具有均值和方差的总体（可以具有任何形式）中重复抽取容量为n 的随机样本，那么当n 变得很大时，样本均值的抽样分布接近正态，并具有均值和方差/n 。23超几何分布超几何分布以样本内的成功事件的个数x为随机变量。若总体单位数为
6、N，其中成功类共有K个，设从中抽取n个为一样本，则样本中成功类个数x 的超几何概率分布为 P（x）H（x：N，n，K） 式中：xK，0xn,0KN。 超几何分布的数学期望，方差224泊松分布泊松分布为离散型随机变量的概率分布，随机变量为样本内成功事件的次数。若为成功次数的期望值，假定它为已知。而且在某一时空中成功的次数很少，超过5次的成功概率可忽不计，那么稀有事件出现的次数x的泊松概率分布为 P（x）P（x；） 泊松分布的期望值和方差均等于它的唯一参数。25卡方分布设随机变量X1，X2，Xk，相互独立，且都服从同一的正态分布N (，2)。那么，我们可以先把它们变为标准正态变量Z1，Z2，Zk，
7、k个独立标准正态变量的平方和被定义为卡方分布（分布）的随机变量（）（）2（）2（）2 其中k为卡方分布的自由度，它表示定义式中独立变量的个数。 分布的期望值是自由度k，方差值为自由度的2倍。26F分布F分布是连续型随机变量的另一种重要的小样本分布。设（）和（）相互独立，那么随机变量 F（，） 服从自由度为(，)的F分布。其中，分子上的自由度叫做第一自由度，分母上的自由度叫做第二自由度。27点估计所谓点估计，就是根据样本数据算出一个单一的估计值，用它来估计总体的参数值。28区间估计所谓区间估计，就是计算抽样平均误差，指出估计的可信程度，进而在点估计的基础上，确定总体参数的所在范围或区间。29置信
8、区间置信区间就是我们为了增加参数被估计到的信心而在点估计两边设置的估计区间。30.独立双样本所谓独立样本，指双样本是在两个总体中相互独立地抽取的31.配对样本所谓配对样本，指只有一个总体，双样本是由于样本中的个体两两匹配成对而产生的。32.单一试验组的试验: 单一实验组实验是对同一对象在某种措施实行前后进行观察比较的一种简单实验，它只有实验组而没有控制组。或者说，同一个组在实施实验刺激之前是实验中的“控制组”，在实施实验刺激之后就成了“实验组”。33.一试验组与一控制组的试验配对样本的一实验组与一控制组之假设检验，要设法把实验变量的作用和额外变量的作用区分开来，然后就像对待单一实验组实验一样，
9、把问题转化为零假设d0的单样本检验来处理。34拟和优度检验：是有关检定总体是否具有正态或其他分布形式的非参数统计检验。35列联表：是按品质标志把两个变量的频数进行交互分类的统计表格。36理论频数：是按照理论分布计算出的样本各组频数。37方差分析：研究多个总体均值是否存在差异的统计检验方法。38方差分析表：用于表达方差分析结果的标准形式的表格。其基本形式如下：项目 SS 自由度 MS 检验统计量 临界值 显著性 组间 SSB （c1） MSB MSB / MSW F(c1，nc) （待定） 组内 SSW （nc） MSW 总 SST （n1） 39总变差：记作SST，它表示对于总均值的偏差之平方
10、和，即 SST 40组内变差：记作SSW，它是各观测值对其所属类别均值的偏差的平方和，即41组间平方和：记作SSB，是自变量因素所没有解释的的变异，即42.相关比率：方差分析中把已解释的变差对总变差的比值称为相关比率，用符号表示。 1 43估计标准误差：为回归剩余方差MSW的平方根，即SY/X44.零假设概率分布的具体形式是由假设决定的，假设肯定不止一个。在统计检验中，通常把被检验的那个假设称为零假设(或称原假设，用符号H0表示)，并用它和其他备择假设(用符号H1表示)相对比。45.第一类错误零假设Ho实际上是正确的，却被否定了。46.第二类错误零假设Ho实际上是错误的，却没有被否定。请您删除
11、一下内容，O(_)O谢谢！2015年中央电大期末复习考试小抄大全，电大期末考试必备小抄，电大考试必过小抄After earning his spurs in the kitchens of The Westin, The Sheraton, Sens on the Bund, and a sprinkling of other top-notch venues, Simpson Lu fi nally got the chance to become his own boss in November 2010. Sort of. The Shanghai-born chef might not
12、 actually own California Pizza Kitchen (CPK) but he is in sole charge of both kitchen and frontof- house at this Sinan Mansionsstalwart. Its certainly a responsibility to be the head chef, and then to have to manage the rest of the restaurant as well, the 31-year-old tells Enjoy Shanghai. In hotels,
13、 for example, these jobs are strictly demarcated, so its a great opportunity to learn how a business operates across the board. It was a task that management back in sunny California evidently felt he was ready for, and a vote of confi dence from a company that, to date, has opened 250 outlets in 11
14、 countries. And for added pressure, the Shanghai branch was also CPKs China debut. For sure it was a big step, and unlike all their other Asia operations that are franchises, they decided to manage it directly to begin with, says Simpson. Two years ago a private franchisee took over the lease, but t
15、he links to CPK headquarters are still strong, with a mainland-based brand ambassador on hand to ensure the business adheres to its ethos of creating innovative, hearth-baked pizzas, a slice of PR blurb that Simpson insists lives up to the hype. They are very innovative, he says. The problem with mo
16、st fast food places is that they use the same sauce on every pizza and just change the toppings. Every one of our 16 pizza sauces is a unique recipe that has been formulated to complement the toppings perfectly. The largely local customer base evidently agrees and on Saturday and Sunday, at least, t
17、he place is teeming. The kids-eat-for-free policy at weekends is undoubtedly a big draw, as well as is the spacious second-fl oor layout overlooked by a canopy of green from Fuxing Park over the road. The company is also focusing on increasing brand recognition and in recent years has taken part in
18、outside events such as the regular California Week. Still, the sta are honest enough to admit that business could be better; as good, in fact, as in CPKs second outlet in the popular Kerry Parkside shopping mall in Pudong. Sinan Mansions has really struggled to get the number of visitors that were e
19、nvisaged when it first opened, and it hasnt been easy for any of the tenants here, adds Simpson. Were planning a third outlet in the city in 2015, and we will probably choose a shopping mall again because of the better foot traffic. The tearooms once frequented by Coco Chanel and Marcel Proust are u
20、pping sticks and coming to Shanghai, Xu Junqian visits the Parisian outpost with sweet treats. One thing the century-old Parisian tearoom Angelina has shown is that legendary fashion designer Coco Chanel not only had style and glamor but also boasted great taste in food, pastries in particular. One
21、of the most popular tearooms in Paris, Angelina is famous for having once been frequented by celebrities such as Chanel and writer Marcel Proust. Now Angelina has packed up its French ambience, efficient service, and beautiful, comforting desserts and flown them to Shanghai. At the flagship dine-in
22、and take-out space in Shanghai, everything mimics the original tearoom designed from the beginning of the 20th century, in Paris, the height of Belle Epoque. The paintings on the wall, for example, are exactly the same as the one that depicts the landscape of southern France, the hometown of the own
23、er; and the small tables are intentional imitations of the ones that Coco Chanel once sat at every afternoon for hot chocolate. The famous hot chocolate, known as LAfricain, is a luxurious mixture of four types of cocoa beans imported from Africa, blended in Paris and then shipped to Shanghai. Its s
24、infully sweet, rich and thick as if putting a bar of melting chocolate directly on the tongue and the fresh whipped cream on the side makes a light, but equally gratifying contrast. It is also sold in glass bottles as takeaway. The signature Mont-Blanc chestnut cake consists of three parts: the pure
25、ed chestnut on top, the vanilla cream like stuffing, and the meringue as base. Get all three layers in one scoop, not only for the different textures but also various flavors of sweetness. The dessert has maintained its popularity for a century, even in a country like France, perhaps the worlds most
26、 competitive place for desserts. A much overlooked pairing, is the Paris-New York choux pastry and N226 chocolate flavored tea. The choux pastry is a mouthful of airy pecan-flavored whipped cream, while the tea, a blend of black teas from China and Ceylon, cocoa and rose petals, offers a more subtle
27、 fragrance of flowers and chocolate. Ordering these two items, featuring a muted sweetness, makes it easier for you to fit into your little black dress. Breakfast, brunch, lunch and light supper are also served at the tearoom, a hub of many cultures and takes in a mix of different styles of French c
28、uisines, according to the management team. The semi-cooked foie gras terrine, is seductive and deceptive. Its generously served at the size and shape of a toast, while the actual brioche toast is baked into a curved slice dipped with fig chutney. The flavor, however, is honest: strong, smooth and su
29、blime. And you dont actually need the toast for crunchiness. This is the season for high teas, with dainty cups of fine china and little pastries that appeal to both visual and physical appetites. But there is one high tea with a difference, and Pauline D. Loh finds out just exactly why it is specia
30、l. Earl Grey tea and macarons are all very well for the crucial recuperative break in-between intensive bouts of holiday season shopping. And for those who prefer savory to sweet, there is still the selection of classic Chinese snacks called dim sum to satisfy and satiate. High tea is a meal to eat
31、with eye and mouth, an in-between indulgence that should be light enough not to spoil dinner, but sufficiently robust to take the edge off the hunger that strikes hours after lunch. The afternoon tea special at Shang-Xi at the Four Seasons Hotel Pudong has just the right elements. It is a pampering
32、meal, with touches of luxury that make the high tea session a treat in itself. Whole baby abalones are braised and then topped on a shortcrust pastry shell, a sort of Chinese version of the Western vol-au-vent, but classier. Even classier is the dim sum staple shrimp dumpling or hargow, upgraded wit
33、h the addition of slivers of midnight dark truffles. This is a master touch, and chef Simon Choi, who presides unchallenged at Shang-Xi, has scored a winner again. Sweet prawns and aromatic truffles whats not to love? His masterful craftsmanship is exhibited in yet another pastry a sweet pastry that
34、 is shaped to look like a walnut, but which you can put straight into the mouth. It crumbles immediately, and the slightly sweet, nutty morsel is so easy to eat youll probably reach straight for another. My favorite is the dessert that goes by the name yangzhi ganlu, or ambrosia from the gods. The h
35、otel calls it chilled mango cream with sago, pomelo and birds nest made with ingredients that resonate with every female soul. It does taste like ambrosia, with the sweet-sour fragrance of the mango forming the first layer of taste and sensation, and the pomelo sacs and sago pearls providing the tac
36、tile contrast. The birds nest its the ingredient that gilds the lily, since it is supposed to nourish and nurture a perfect complexion. For those unfamiliar with this exotic ingredient, the birds nest is not a bundle of twigs, but is, instead, the dried secretion that cave swifts use to build their
37、nest. Technically, its bird saliva, but the Chinese believe that it has collagen-boosting properties essential to beauty. To me, it just tastes good, adding a slight gelatinous crunch to the back of the teeth. There is also a baked mushroom puff pastry that includes the highly prized Matsutake or pi
38、ne mushroom. You also get a choice of teas, but I strongly recommend the aged Puer from Yunnan province. It is a mellow tea that will go perfectly with the rich little nuggets, and will warm you up on a cold afternoon. Incidentally, the general guide is green tea such as Longjing or Dragonwell for the hot season, semi-fermented teas like Wu-long or Iron Buddha for autumn, and more warming teas like Puer for winter. The Shang-Xi afternoon tea costs 228 yuan ($37) per person, and 388 yuan for the more opulent selection which includes abalone and birds nest.