《[精选]政府统计中的软统计及其体系建设.pptx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《[精选]政府统计中的软统计及其体系建设.pptx（16页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、本资料来源Soft Statistics in Governmental Statistics and its System Construction and Development政府统计中的软统计及体系建设与开展问题政府统计中的软统计及体系建设与开展问题 Yanyun ZHAO,Renmin University of China 中国人民大学中国人民大学 赵彦云赵彦云OutlineDevelopment Background of Soft Data Statistics软数据统计开展的背景软数据统计开展的背景 Soft data statistics in the statistica
2、l development of Beijing北京市统计开展过程中的软数据统计北京市统计开展过程中的软数据统计 Analysis on development demand of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistics of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计开展需求分析北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计开展需求分析 Development and construction of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan
3、 statistical system of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计开展建设北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计开展建设 In reality,the statistical function is actually not only the post-event statistics of different activities,but the active influence of the pre-event statistical function will also mean a new change in the statistical functi
4、on in terms of statistical ideology.By means of human subject empirical assessment,subjective rational exploration and measurement,activity feature classification and behavioral feature classification,the activity behavioral statistics,value conception statistics,development potential statistics,pro
5、per relation statistics,integrated evaluation statistics,etc enhances the human measurement of the quantification extent and quantification relation of objective existence and development and extends and elevates the application of statistical instruments.最新开展的许多事实说明，统计的作用确实不仅仅是各种活动的事后统计，事前的统事前的统计作用
6、能否产生积极影响，在统计思想上也意味着对统计功能的一种新变换。计作用能否产生积极影响，在统计思想上也意味着对统计功能的一种新变换。活动行为统计、价值观统计、开展潜力统计、适度关系统计、综合评价统计等，借助人们主观经验判断、主观理性挖掘评测、活动特征分类、行为特征分类等方式方法，增强人们关于客观存在和开展的定量程度和定量关系的测度，扩展和提升统计工具的使用。针对今天统计开展的现实，我觉得这些统计值得总结和标准开展，因此，本文提出专题的研究，并把这些统计统称为软数据统计软数据统计。I.Development Background of Soft Data Statistics 软数据统计开展的背景
7、软数据统计开展的背景In view of the governmental statistics,the development and cooperation of soft data statistics is extremely crucial for bination with the construction of soft strength emphasized by the state.Today,the international petitiveness is the focus of initiating the national concern and study on
8、the soft strength.The international petitiveness is posed of hard petitiveness and soft petitiveness.从政府统计工作来看，如何与目前国家特别强调的软实力建设结合起来，可能非常重要和关键的是软数据统计的开展与配合。今天的国际竞争力，是引发国家软实力关注和研究的集中点。国际竞争力由硬竞争力和软竞争力软竞争力组成。Soft petitiveness is mainly the statistics and evaluation of the economic institution,economic
9、policy,environment,market,human resource,social security,information,globalization,value conception,culture,education idea,risk consciousness,etc.软竞争力主要是对经济制度、经济政策、环境、市场、人才、社会保障、信息化、全球化、价值观、文化、教育观念、风险意识等的统计测评。软竞争力与硬竞争力的关系越来越密切，前者成为后者的重要解释因素和管理因素。To take the lead in the world in constructing the inte
10、rnationalize metropolis,Beijing must attach great importance to the construction of soft data statistics,including the integration with the governmental statistical system and enhancement of the active function of the governmental statistics in the economic and social development.北京国际化大都市建设过程中，如果走在世
11、界的前列，必须重视软数据统计的建设，包括如何融入现有政府统计体系之中，增强政府统计对经济社会开展的积极作用。II.Soft data statistics in the statistical development of Beijing 北京市统计开展过程中的软数据统计北京市统计开展过程中的软数据统计Beijing Municipality has developed to a great extent,which has reflected the innovative development in various aspects,especially the construction a
12、nd development of the governmental soft data statistics.For instance,the“Beijing Social Emotion and Public Opinion Survey Network进入新世纪，北京市政府统计工作有了很大的开展，许多方面表达创新性开展，其中最为突出的是政府软数据统计的建设和开展，例如建立“北京市社情民意调查网。Based on the social emotion and public opinion survey,Beijing has also introduced the satisfaction
13、 statistical analysis model and method.Especially,in bination with the telephone survey system and relevant statistical soft calculation system,it can resolve various hot issues.在社情民意统计调查基础上，引入满意度统计分析模型和方法，特别是与 辅助调查系统和相应统计软件运算的系统结合，可以解决现实经济社会开展过程中倍受企业界、政府部门和学术研究界关注的各种热点问题，以及针对一些目标的满意度的测评，产生了非常好的作用，展
14、示了统计的新作用，也是统计以快速、系统、客观、深刻反映实际存在的统计研究的开展方向。In addition,under the arrangement of the national statistical survey system,there are also the enterprise prosperity survey and some special questionnaire surveys.此外，在国家统计调查系统安排下，还有企业景气调查，以及一些专题的问卷调查。总体上看，北京市统计局软数据统计调查和分析研究，与事后的硬数据统计内容相比，其开展还没有被重视，统计工作不固定，也没
15、有长期统计数据的积累概念，更没有与现有硬数据统计体系的配合与融合成新的统计体系的趋向。III.Analysis on development demand of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistics of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计开展需求分析北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计开展需求分析Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical System is a public statistical system oriented for
16、 the functions of Beijing municipal governmental system mainly for the statistics of economic operation and development and the social status and development.For a long period of time,the governmental statistics has been the post-event statistics possibly due to the conventional consciousness that s
17、uch statistics is scientific and regular,while the soft data statistics seems to be in parable with it.Like the development process of market economy,it needs to be technically supported as well as to be promoted by the newer and bigger demands.Will the governmental statistics need soft data statist
18、ics?What are the main demands?These are the important issues that we need first to study constantly and follow up in developing the statistics.北京市国际大都市统计体系是在北京市政府系统功能定位下的公共统计体系，主要是经济运行与经济开展的统计、社会现状与社会开展的统计。长期以来，政府统计是事后的统计，可能比较重的传统意识是这种统计是科学的和标准的，而软数据统计似乎还不能与之相比。统计事业的开展，与市场经济开展过程一样，她需要技术方法的供给水平支持，也需要
19、新的更大的需求的推动。政府统计到底需要不需要软数据统计，主要需求是什么？这些是我们开展统计首先要不断研究和跟踪的重要问题。With the support from the great development of information network technology,it shows increasingly active and strong development power.The unitary post-event statistics,i.e.,the hard data statistics can no longer ply with the requirement
20、of the times development,especially failing to meet the needs of the increasingly active and innovative economy and social development with emotional plex.在当今信息网络技术大开展的支持下，显示出日益的活泼和强劲的开展力，单一的事后统计即硬数据统计，已经远远不适应时代开展的要求，特别是不能满足日益活泼创新的经济和情感复杂社会开展的需要。Following factors are important in promoting the gover
21、nmental and social demands for soft data statistics.1.For the monitoring and forecasting of economic performance and development,it is necessary to develop various surveys such as the enterprise investment intention survey and enterprise economic prosperity assessment and the relevant statistical in
22、dex developed from such surveys.2.The evaluation of institutional factors and policies and the relevant analytical studies of behavior shall be supported with the statistical survey through the qualified and quantified evaluation,classification parison or associate behaviors explanation of the parti
23、cipants and interest parties in market economy.3.The need to measure the behavior and activities of subjects,such as innovation activities and behavior of enterprises,be es the important supplement to the R&D and surpasses increasingly the function of innovation statistics with R&D as the focus.4.Du
24、e to the requirement to satisfy the first target of elevating the peoples living quality,the governmental development target and particular measures shall be interactive with the experiences of mon people.In terms the customer satisfaction of the market as well as in various aspects of economic deve
25、lopment and of institutional construction,it is necessary to use the satisfaction degree of residents to feed back accurate objective information.This is an import aspect for the soft data statistics to play a part.5.With the development and progress of human society,such soft factors as culture,eth
26、ics and value conception play an important role in improving the social cohesion,innovation power and stability as well as are the source power for economic development and social progress.To develop energetically such source power,it is necessary to study its objective existence and development pul
27、se and the social survival relation,for which the soft data statistics is the only statistical tool.6.The effective control,performance examination and democratic supervision in strengthening the management are the important statistical measures.The soft data statistics also plays an important role.
28、推动政府和社会对软数据统计需求的重要方面。推动政府和社会对软数据统计需求的重要方面。1、经济运行和开展方面的监测、预测，需要开展多种像企业投资意向调查、企业经济景气判断的调查，以及、经济运行和开展方面的监测、预测，需要开展多种像企业投资意向调查、企业经济景气判断的调查，以及由此类调查所开展的相应统计指数。由此类调查所开展的相应统计指数。2、制度因素和政策评估，以及相应的行为分析研究，需要市场经济参与者和当事人的定性定量化评估、类别、制度因素和政策评估，以及相应的行为分析研究，需要市场经济参与者和当事人的定性定量化评估、类别比较或关联行为说明的统计调查支持。比较或关联行为说明的统计调查支持。3、
29、测度主体行为活动的需要，例如企业创新活动和行为，已经成为、测度主体行为活动的需要，例如企业创新活动和行为，已经成为R&D统计的重要补充，而且，越来越超越统计的重要补充，而且，越来越超越以以R&D为核心的创新统计作用。为核心的创新统计作用。4、满足人民生活质量提高第一目标的需要，提出了政府开展目标和具体措施与社会和老百姓的感受互动。不、满足人民生活质量提高第一目标的需要，提出了政府开展目标和具体措施与社会和老百姓的感受互动。不仅仅在市场的客户满意度，而且在经济社会开展的许多方面，以及制度建设的许多方面，都需要居民的满意度仅仅在市场的客户满意度，而且在经济社会开展的许多方面，以及制度建设的许多方面
30、，都需要居民的满意度来反响准确的客观信息。这是软数据统计发挥作用的重要方面。来反响准确的客观信息。这是软数据统计发挥作用的重要方面。5、随着人类社会的开展和进步，文化、伦理道德、价值观等软性因素，对于社会凝聚力、创新力、稳定力有、随着人类社会的开展和进步，文化、伦理道德、价值观等软性因素，对于社会凝聚力、创新力、稳定力有重要的作用，也是经济开展和社会进步的源动力，大力开展这种源动力就要研究她的客观存在和开展脉络，以重要的作用，也是经济开展和社会进步的源动力，大力开展这种源动力就要研究她的客观存在和开展脉络，以及社会生存关系等等，软数据统计是唯一的统计工具。及社会生存关系等等，软数据统计是唯一的
31、统计工具。6、加强管理过程的有效控制，绩效考核、民主监督是重要的统计手段，其中软数据统计也发挥重要的作用。、加强管理过程的有效控制，绩效考核、民主监督是重要的统计手段，其中软数据统计也发挥重要的作用。IV.Development and construction of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistical system of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计开展建设北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计开展建设In view of the realistic developmen
32、t status of China,three lines are promoting the development of soft data statistics in the governmental statistical system:1 elevate the requirement for the quality of existing statistical data;2 elevate the reflecting capacity of the existing statistics;3 satisfy the new requirements for the quanti
33、fication of qualitative issues in the plicated economic and social development.从我国现实开展情况看，三条线推动着政府统计体系中的软数据统计开展。第一条线是提升现有统计数据质量的要求；第二条线是提升现有统计反映能力；第三条线是满足经济社会开展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的新要求。In view of elevating the quality of existing statistical data,in addition to strengthening the control over the statistical
34、 data collection and introducing advanced technical method for statistical work,introduction of soft data statistics is also an important development direction.With the market economy developing further and market petition be ing fierce,the statistical information of micro enterprises and institutio
35、ns is increasingly sensitive.Thus,total dependence on post-event statistics will not do.Based on the currently developed tele munication technology and network technology,it is extremely easy to undertake the survey of soft data statistics.What are crucial are the construction of organization system
36、 for surveys and the design of statistical survey for different statistical issues under the particular background conditions of enterprises in contact or basic units for statistical work.The auxiliary technical measures for statistical survey can be the adoption of call-survey system or the special
37、 mobile reporting system for the statistical volunteers to provide statistical information service.In reality,with the modern developed tele munication technology and network technology,we can absolutely find a new approach for the governmental statistics.Actually,we can explore a brand new way for
38、construction and development of the governmental statistics:i.e.,place the modern technology and information exchange mode as an important part of the governmental statistical system,accept the influence of information technology and network technology on social progress,separate properly the statis
39、tical purpose and realization mode and gradually transit to the new system construction with the census data as the standard,soft data statistics as the routine work,statistical statements as assistance and statistical calculation model as support.从第一条线的提升现有统计数据质量看，除了加强统计数据搜集过程控制和引入先进统计技术从第一条线的提升现有统
40、计数据质量看，除了加强统计数据搜集过程控制和引入先进统计技术方法之外，引进软数据统计也是一个重要的开展方向。因为随着市场经济的深入和市场竞争的方法之外，引进软数据统计也是一个重要的开展方向。因为随着市场经济的深入和市场竞争的剧烈，微观企业单位的统计信息越来越敏感，因此，完全依靠事后统计是行不通的。剧烈，微观企业单位的统计信息越来越敏感，因此，完全依靠事后统计是行不通的。基于目前兴旺的电信技术和网络技术，非常容易开展软数据统计调查，关键是调查的组织系统基于目前兴旺的电信技术和网络技术，非常容易开展软数据统计调查，关键是调查的组织系统建设，以及针对不同的统计问题，深入联系企业或统计基层单位的具体背
41、景条件的统计调查方建设，以及针对不同的统计问题，深入联系企业或统计基层单位的具体背景条件的统计调查方案设计，统计调查实现的技术辅助手段可以采用案设计，统计调查实现的技术辅助手段可以采用 调查系统，或采用统计志愿者自动提供统计信调查系统，或采用统计志愿者自动提供统计信息效劳的专用息效劳的专用 报告系统。报告系统。事实上，现代开展起来的电信技术和网络技术，完全可以使我们的政府统计体系走出一条新路。事实上，现代开展起来的电信技术和网络技术，完全可以使我们的政府统计体系走出一条新路。实际上，我们可以探索一种全新的政府统计建设开展方式，即把现代技术和信息交流方式放在实际上，我们可以探索一种全新的政府统计
42、建设开展方式，即把现代技术和信息交流方式放在政府统计体系建设的重要位置上，认可当代社会进步的信息技术和网络技术的影响，把统计目政府统计体系建设的重要位置上，认可当代社会进步的信息技术和网络技术的影响，把统计目的与实现的途径方式适当分开，逐步过渡以普查数据为基准，软数据统计为日常，统计报表为的与实现的途径方式适当分开，逐步过渡以普查数据为基准，软数据统计为日常，统计报表为辅，统计推算模型支持的新系统建设。辅，统计推算模型支持的新系统建设。In view of elevating the reflecting capacity of the existing statistics,we shall
43、 extend to the statistics of economic and social activities based on the existing post-event statistical findings and generate a kind of system integrating the hard data statistics and soft data statistics as to raise the objective reflection capacity of the statistics about the realistic developmen
44、t features and law,.Enterprise innovation survey and enterprise prosperity survey are two typical examples as well as the centralize representation of the governmental statistical system in elevating the capacity of statistics to reflect the regional and industrial innovation and the short-term and
45、long-term capacity of economic cycle.从第二条线的提升现有统计反映能力看，我们要从现有的事从第二条线的提升现有统计反映能力看，我们要从现有的事后统计结果为主，向经济社会活动本身的统计扩展，并形成后统计结果为主，向经济社会活动本身的统计扩展，并形成一种硬数据统计与软数据统计的有机结合体系，提高统计对一种硬数据统计与软数据统计的有机结合体系，提高统计对现实开展特征和规律的客观反映能力。企业创新调查和企业现实开展特征和规律的客观反映能力。企业创新调查和企业景气调查是两个典型的例子，也是政府统计体系在提高统计景气调查是两个典型的例子，也是政府统计体系在提高统计反映区
46、域与产业创新能力和经济周期短期与长期能力的集中反映区域与产业创新能力和经济周期短期与长期能力的集中表达。表达。In view of satisfying the new requirements for the quantification of qualitative issues in the plicated economic and social development,the governmental statistics should start with the target of raising the peoples living quality and cooperate
47、with the mainstream work of the government to establish the routine soft data statistics.For instance,the regular statistical survey of resident culture,consciousness,ethics,value concept and their influential factors oriented for the construction of spiritual civilization is a kind of new statistic
48、s of reflecting objectively,scientifically and systematically the social existence and influence,which should be regularly constructed in accordance with the technical and time-sequential requirements of soft data statistics method and which shall lead the Chinese whole cultural propaganda and educa
49、tion system to the times of scientific analysis.The statistical survey of resident satisfaction is also the important statistical instrument for promoting the social progress and democratic supervision as well as the scientific base for elevating the governmental social security and scientific decis
50、ion making.从第三条线的满足经济社会开展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的从第三条线的满足经济社会开展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的新要求看，政府统计应该从提高人民生活质量目标出发，配合新要求看，政府统计应该从提高人民生活质量目标出发，配合政府主流工作，建立日常性的软数据统计。例如以精神文明建政府主流工作，建立日常性的软数据统计。例如以精神文明建设为方向的居民文化、意识、伦理、价值观及其影响因素的定设为方向的居民文化、意识、伦理、价值观及其影响因素的定期统计调查，是一种客观系统科学反映社会存在与影响的新型期统计调查，是一种客观系统科学反映社会存在与影响的新型统计，应该按照软数据统计方法技术及时间