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1、Chapter 8 The evaluation of decision-making scheme-AHP8.1 Overview of Decision Scheme Evaluation Problems and AHP8.1.1 Evaluation of decision-making scheme People often encounter many decision-making problems in their daily life:to buy a shirt,you need to buy it in cotton,silk,polyester and flowers,
2、white,checkered we should make a choice among them;invite friends for dinner,plan to have a family dinner or go to a hotel,eat Chinese food or Western food or buffet;travel on holiday,go to Suzhou and Hangzhou with beautiful scenery,or go to the charming Beidaihe seaside,or go to Guilin with the bes
3、t scenery in the world.If you think that these daily trivial matters do not need to be taken seriously as a decision-making issue,then when you are faced with applying for a school,choosing a major,or choosing a job position,you must carefully consider and repeatedly compare and make as many satisfa
4、ctory decisions as possible.People often need to evaluate multiple decision-making programs in order to choose the most suitable program.This is the evaluation problem of decision-making programs.Decision-making refers to the choice of a certain plan based on certain criteria when faced with multipl
5、e plans.(1)Choose one of the four refrigerators of Haier,Xinfei,Rongsheng and Snowflake.(2)Choose a tourist spot in Hangzhou,Beidaihe and Guilin.(3)Choose a research area in basic research,applied research and mathematics education.Basis for decision-making:brand reputation,refrigerator function,pri
6、ce and power consumption.The basis for decision-making:the scenery of the scenic spot,the living environment,the characteristics of food and drink,convenient transportation and the cost of tourism.Basis for decision-making:contribution of results(practical value,scientific significance),feasibility(
7、difficulty,period and funding)and personal basis and interests,.8.1.2 Overview of AHP When dealing with decision-making problems,the factors to be considered are more or less,and there are many,but a common feature is that they usually involve factors with different attributes such as economy,societ
8、y,and humanities.When making comparisons,judgments,evaluations,and decisions,the importance,influence,or priority of these factors are often difficult to quantify,and human subjective choices play a very important role,which brings general mathematical methods to solve problems essentially difficult
9、.In the 1970s,American operations researcher Professor TLSaaty and others at the University of Pittsburgh applied network system theory and multi-objective synthesis to the US Department of Defenses research on the topic of electricity distribution based on the contribution of various industrial sec
10、tors to national welfare.Evaluation method,a hierarchical weight decision analysis method,called Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The analytic hierarchy process is a systematic and hierarchical analysis method combining qualitative and quantitative,and it is a practical method that can effectively de
11、al with the evaluation of decision-making schemes.The characteristics of the analytic hierarchy process are based on the in-depth analysis of the nature,influencing factors and internal relationships of complex decision-making problems,and the use of less quantitative information to make the thinkin
12、g process of decision-making mathematical,so as to multi-objective,multi-criteria or complex decision-making problems without structural characteristics provide simple decision-making methods.It is a model and method for making decisions on complex systems that are difficult to fully quantify.When s
13、ystematically analyzing problems in the social,economic,and management fields,it is often faced with a complex system composed of many factors that are interrelated and mutually constrained.The analytic hierarchy process provides a new,concise and practical decision-making method for studying such c
14、omplex systems.The AHP method combines quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,uses the experience of the decision-maker to judge the relative importance of the standards that can be achieved by each measurement goal,and reasonably gives the weight of each standard of each decision plan,the w
15、eights are used to determine the order of merits of each scheme.The characteristic of the AHP method is to reasonably combine qualitative and quantitative decision-making,hierarchize and quantify the decision-making process according to the laws of thinking and psychology;express human subjective ju
16、dgment in quantitative form and carry out scientific processing.The AHP method has a profound theoretical foundation,and the expression form is very simple,easy to be understood and accepted by people,and effectively applied to those problems that are difficult to solve with quantitative methods.It
17、is an effective tool for social and economic system decision-making.Therefore,this method has been widely used.8.1.2 Establishment of hierarchical model The analytic hierarchy process combines qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation.According to the nature of the problem and the overall go
18、al to be achieved,the problem is decomposed into different component factors,and the factors are aggregated and combined at different levels according to the interrelated influence and subordinate relationship,to form a multi-level analysis structure model,so that the problem finally comes down to t
19、he determination of the relative importance weight of the lowest layer(schemes,measures for decision-making,etc.)relative to the highest layer(overall goal)or the ranking of relative pros and cons.According to the relationship between them,the goals,factors(decision criteria)and decision objects of
20、decision-making are divided into the highest layer,the middle layer and the lowest layer,and a hierarchical structure diagram is drawn.Illustrating the establishment of hierarchical analysis structure model(1)the issue of employment choice for university graduates The criteria and requirements for c
21、ollege graduates to choose a unit are various,generally speaking,the following factors will be considered:contributionsuitable to use ones talents to make a good contribution;income-salary income;development-the development of promotion opportunities;reputation-the reputation of the unit;working env
22、ironment-the harmonious interpersonal relationship of the unit;living environment-city size,location,climate,etc.job selectiontarget layercriterion layercontributionincomedevelopmentreputationworking environmentliving environmentscheme layerAvailable units P1,P2,P3The gradation analysis of college g
23、raduates employment choice is:(2)the choice of tourist destination For example,in the three destinations of Guilin,Hangzhou and Beidaihe,choose suitable tourist destinations according to factors such as scenery,cost and living conditions.target layerO(choose destination)P2HangzhouP1GuilinP3Beidaihec
24、riterion layerscheme layerC3liveC1sceneryC2costC4dietC5journeythe highest level:the goal level,which represents the purpose of decision-making and the problem to be solved,that is,the overall goal to be achieved by AHP.Usually only one overall goal.the lowest level:the plan level,the alternative pla
25、n for decision-making,which means various measures,policies,plans,etc.to be used to solve the problem.There are usually multiple options.middle layer:criterion layer,indicator layer,.,which represents the intermediate links involved in taking certain measures,policies,programs,etc.to achieve the pre
26、determined overall goal;generally divided into criterion layer,indicator layer,strategy layer,constraint layer,etc.The construction of the hierarchical model can be summarized as dividing the decision problem into 3 or more levels:For the two adjacent layers,called the upper layer the target layer a
27、nd the lower layer the factor layer.The problem to be solved by the analytic hierarchy process is about the relative weight of the lowest layer to the highest layer.According to this relative weight,various schemes and measures in the lowest layer can be sorted,thus to make a choice among different
28、schemes or form a principle of choice.Each layer has several elements,and the relationship between the elements of each layer is represented by connected straight lines,thus forming a hierarchical structure analysis diagram of the decision problem.？How do you choose the most satisfying tourist desti
29、nation among multiple attractions?8.1 Overview of Decision Scheme Evaluation Problems and AHPBarrage problem1.Decision-making refers to choosing the best decision-maker according to certain criteria when faced with multiple solutions.(correct)bining qualitative and quantitative.2.The analytic hierarchy process is an analysis method of _.（d）