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1、Author:Nancy GreenePenetration Curve(S-Curve)March 1998Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.1Penetration CurvesBOS Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodologyCopyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.2Penetration CurvesBOS Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases:e
2、arly adoption/trialmass adoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineThe product life-cycle generates a series of market penetration rates that tend to follow a specific pattern,called an S-curve(or penetration curve)Given the pattern of penetration curves over time,and given that this relationship holds t
3、o some extent in almost every case,penetration curves can be a powerful tool in predicting the growth of new productsWhat is a Penetration Curve?(S-Curve)3Penetration CurvesBOS Product Life-Cycle TimeVolumeProducts can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases.Early ad
4、option/trialMass adoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDriven by people who always adopt new things early and fuel the products initial growthThe product becomes accepted by the general market;characterized by rapid product growthThe product has either saturated the market,or is already being substi
5、tuted for by another product that is in an earlier phase of the product life cycleThe decline of the product,driven by complete substitution for or replacement with another product4Penetration CurvesBOS Characteristics of Penetration Curves Penetration can occur at the expense of an existing product
6、,or it can drive new markets to growSeveral factors will influence the end state,or saturation point,of a product:duration/speed of product life-cyclecompetitive forcesinnovationculture/societyWhen considering penetration curves,there are a few characteristics to keep in mind:5Penetration CurvesBOS
7、Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology6Penetration CurvesBOS Applications of Penetration Curves Validating/determining market growth for a new or established productShowing precedents for success of a product through existing penetration curvesPredicting the saturation level for a productD
8、etermining market entry strategy or timing,given the predicted penetration of a productDetermining product management or phase-out,given the speed of new products adoptionPenetration curves can be useful in addressing a series of different strategic questions which arise when new products enter a ma
9、rket.7Penetration CurvesBOS Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology8Penetration CurvesBOS In 1994,the National Institutes of Health(NIH)issued a statement confirming that most ulcers are strongly associated with the presence of a bacteria(H.Pylori).While previously,doctors had been advised
10、to treat ulcer symptoms with anti-secretory drugs,NIH now recommends that ulcer patients with H.Pylori infections also be treated with antibiotics.The new treatment cures not only ulcer symptoms,but the underlying cause of the disease.In 1997,a new device was granted a patent by the U.S.Patent Offic
11、e which will test human breath for the presence of H.Pyloria blood test for H.Pylori is already on the marketdoctors may also test for H.Pylori using tissue samples obtained through endoscopy,a relatively invasive and painful medical procedureOur client is considering buying the patent and believes
12、that the breath test technology holds significant advantages over both blood tests and endoscopyless invasive than endoscopymore accurate than blood testsSituation:How large is the market for H.Pylori tests over time?Key Question:A Bain case team used penetration curve analysis to examine how quickl
13、y medical practices change.Disguised Case Situation(1 of 2)9Penetration CurvesBOS A search of the existing literature revealed that in 1995,only 5%of doctors were testing patients suspected of having an ulcer for H.Pyloriin 1991,the figure was close to 1%In order to determine how quickly the NIH rep
14、ort would impact doctors behavior,our case team surveyed doctors in the fall of 1997:60%said they were testing their suspected ulcer patients for H.Pylori15%said they treated all suspected ulcer patients with a course of antibiotics-without first testing for H.Pylori8the team agreed that this repres
15、ented a“ceiling”on testing:15%of doctors would always treat H.Pylori without testing for itResearch:Historic penetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturation point=85%Penetration Curve Data:Combining secondary research with surveys,the team obtained a few historic penetration points,as well as the proje
16、cted saturation point.Disguised Case Situation(2 of 2)10Penetration CurvesBOS H.Pylori Testing Market=data point=predicted penetration curve (based on regression)Saturation point=85%Penetration curve analysis smoothed the known data points into an S-curve that showed an aggressive schedule for the a
17、doption of H.Pylori tests.11Penetration CurvesBOS Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology12Penetration CurvesBOS Gather historic data and set up spreadsheetPick saturation pointthis should be the logical ceiling on a products penetration(i.e.not every home will have a computer,even in the m
18、ost optimistic of scenarios)saturation point=100%in this exampleCalculate penetration ratio(historic percent)/(saturation point-historic percent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.740Penetration R
19、atioMethodology(1 of 3)13Penetration CurvesBOS 198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%Years Historic Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.740Penetration Ratio7.5957.5967.5977.597ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetration ratio)198919901991199219931994etc.25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%Years Historic Penetration0.
20、3330.4080.5710.740Penetration Ratio7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.598etc.ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetration ratio)Predicted Penetration Ratio0.9661.268etc.Take the natural log of the years and the penetration ratioRegress the log of years vs.the log of the penetration ratioUse results t
21、o calculate predicted penetration ratiouse formula for a line,and take anti-logantilog of(ln(year)x x-coefficient+b)Methodology(2 of 3)14Penetration CurvesBOS Calculate predicted penetration using the predicted penetration ratio and saturation point(predicted penetration ratio x saturation point)/(1
22、+predicted penetration ratio)19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200025.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.7407.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.5987.5987.5997.5997.6007.6007.601ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetration ratio)Predicted Penetration Ratio0.9661.2681.6
23、642.1822.8633.7554.9246.457Penetration Ratio49.1%55.9%62.5%68.6%74.1%79.0%83.1%86.6%Predicted PenetrationMethodology(3 of 3)15Penetration CurvesBOS 9、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。3月-233月-23Thursday,March 16,202310、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。08:13:1608:13:1608:133/16/2023 8:13:16 AM11、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。3月-2308:13:1608:13Mar-2316-Mar-2312
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