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1、基准和额外性Baselines and additionality中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China2023/3/281基准线情景：The baseline scenario基准线（基准线情景）：Baseline（baseline scenario )对没有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情况的预测Scenario forecasted to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur in the
2、absence of the proposed CDM project.项目情景：Project scenario对有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情景的预测Scenario forecast to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur with the proposed CDM project intervention.2023/3/282基准线：BaselineFCDM项目活动的基准线是一种假设情况合理代表在不开展拟议项目活动的情况下的温室气体人为源排放量。基准线应涵盖项目内附件A所列所有气体部
3、门和源类别的排放量ThebaselineforaCDMprojectactivityisthescenariothatreasonablyrepresentstheanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesofgreenhousegasesthatwouldoccurintheabsenceoftheproposedprojectactivity.Abaselineshallcoveremissionsfromallgases,sectorsandsourcecategorieslistedinAnnexAwithintheprojectboundary.F基准线可包含一种
4、假设情况。这种假设情况预计未来人为源排放量因项目东道国的具体情况将超过目前水平Thebaselinemayincludeascenariowherefutureanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesareprojectedtoriseabovecurrentlevels,duetothespecificcircumstancesofthehostParty.CDM modalities&procedures,paragraph 44&462023/3/283基准线方法：Baseline approaches(MA48)a)现有实际排放量或历史排放量（如使用时）b)在考虑
5、到投资障碍的情况下，一种代表有经济吸引力的技术方案所产生的排放量c)在过去五年同等社会经济环境和技术状况下，类似项目活动的平均排放量在同一类别位居前20%a)Existing actual or historical emissions,as applicable;b)Emissions from a technology that represents an economically attractive course of action,taking into account barriers to investment;c)The average emissions of similar
6、 project activities undertaken in the previous five years,in similar social,economic,environmental and technological circumstances,and whose performance is among the top 20 per cent of their category.基准线方法的选择应从下列各项中选择最适合该项目活动的方法并就其选择说明理由Selectfromamongthefollowingapproachestheonedeemedmostappropriat
7、efortheprojectactivityandjustifytheappropriatenessofyourchoice:2023/3/284建立基准线：Establishing a baselineF以一个具体项目为基础F依照所使用的已批准的或新的方法学之要求F以透明的和保守的方式选择进行方法、假设条件、方法学、数据源、关键因素及额外性，并考虑不确定性F考虑与项目业别有关的国家或产亚政策和具体情况，如产亚改革行动、当地燃料供应、动力部门扩展计划以及其他经济条件F如果小型CDM项目活动，应依简化的程序建立活动，以符合简化的准择要求FOn a project-specific basis;F
8、In accordance with provisions for the use of approved and new methodologies FIn a transparent and conservative manner manner regarding the choice of approaches,assumptions,methodologies,parameters,data sources,key factors and additionality,and taking into account uncertainty;FTaking into account rel
9、evant national and/or sector policies and circumstances,such as sector reform initiatives,local fuel availability,power sector expansion plans,and the economic situation in the project sector.FIn the case of small-scale CDM project activities which meet the criteria specified in accordance with simp
10、lified procedures developed for such activities;2023/3/285额外性要求：Additionality requirementsFCDM项目的温室气体减排应与减缓气候变化有关的真实的、可测量的和长期的效益GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be real,measurable,and assure long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate changeFCDM 项目温室气体的减排放应是在没有经证明的项目活动的情况下所产
11、生的额外的所有排放量的减少GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity.Kyoto Protocol,Article 12/5(c)F清洁发展机制项目活动应具有额外性，即温室气体人为源排放量减少到低于不开展清洁发展机制项目活动情况下会出现的水平A CDM project activity is additional if anthropogenic emissions of g
12、reenhouse gases by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity.CDM modalities&procedures,paragraph 43 2023/3/287额外性评估：Additionality assessmenta)通过流程图或一系列问题逐渐缩小基准情景选择的范围b)定性或定量的评估不同可能的基准情景，并说明该基准情景的项目不可能实施c)定性或定量地评估所提议的项目实施障碍d)展示说明该项目
13、不是通常惯例，例如发生的情况 全部可能情况的X%a)A flow-chart or series of questions that lead to a narrowing of potential baseline options;b)A qualitative or quantitative assessment of different potential options and an indication of why the non-project option is more likely;c)A qualitative or quantitative assessment of
14、one or more barriers facing the proposed project activity;d)(An indication that the project type is not common practice(e.g.occurs in less than 0：由于资本所值大于其成本，因而增加企业的价值；more economic attractiveF当净现值为负时，NPV 0：由于资本成本大于其所值，因而减少企业价值,less economic attractiveF净现值为零时，NPV=0：意味着投资人已经赚到与投资风险相应的适当回报。Balance att
15、ractive 2023/3/2821内部收益率：IRR当效益和成本的现值相等时的投资的回报率IRR is the discount rate r which makes the NPV of the investment exactly zero.2023/3/2822步骤2总结：Step 2 summaryF如果NPV/IRR太低，无论CERs的收入如何，项目将不会被考虑ifNPV/IRRistoolow,theprojectwillnotgoaheadanyway,regardlessoftheCERsrevenueornot;F如果NPV/IRR太高，将难以解释投资障碍的问题。ifNP
16、V/IRRistoohigh,theprojectwillhavedifficultiesinexplainingtheinvestmentbarrier,asitmaybearguedthatitwouldbeimplementedanyway,regardlessoftheCERsrevenue.G项目投资分析中涉及许多假设情况，DOE在审定此一问题时非常困难itisverydifficultfortheDOEtochecktheIRRaswedontknowaprojectdevelopersinternalcostingapproach,thewaybenefitsareevaluat
17、ed,etc.therearealotofassumptionsinsuchcalculations,asweretalkingaboutfuturecashflows.G指定经营实体一般采取向有关管理部门或利害相关方了解NPV/IRR是否合理DNVbasesitsjudgementonexperienceswithsimilarprojectsintherespectivesectorandcountrycontextandwillaskauthoritiesorotherstakeholderswhethertheNPV/IRRanalysisinthePDDisreasonable.G在
18、PDD文件中应增加对投资障碍的数量分析AddaqualitativediscussionabouttheNPV/IRRinyourPDDtomakethecaseofaninvestmentbarrier.2023/3/2823额外性判断范例-步骤3-Additionality testing example-Step 3F壁垒评估Barrier assessment:F投资壁垒Investment barriersF技术壁垒Technological barriersF因流行实务造成的壁垒Barriers due to prevailing practiceF支持壁垒的充分证据Support
19、 barriers with sufficient evidenceF证明最终的情景无法避免此壁垒（那就是基线!)Show that at least one of the scenarios would not be prevented by the barriers(that will be the baseline!)2023/3/2824额外性判断范例-步骤4-Additionality testing example-Step 4F惯用实务分析Common practice analysis:F其他活动Other activitiesF类似发生情况Similar options oc
20、curringF讨论说明Discuss!2023/3/2825步骤5 CDM 注册的影响：Step5.ImpactofCDMregistrationF解释提出的项目被批准并注册为CDM项目后，由实施该项目的获益将减缓经济或财务的障碍（第二步所论述的）或识别的其他障碍（第三步所论述的）Explain how the approval and registration of the project activity as a CDM activity,and the attendant benefits and incentives derived from the project activit
21、y,will alleviate the economic and financialhurdles(Step 2)or other identified barriers(Step 3)and thus enable the project activity to be undertaken.F项目的获益可有不同的形式：The benefits and incentives can be of various types,such as:G温室气体的减排：Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission reductions;G出售CERs的收入：The finan
22、cial benefit of the revenue obtained by selling CERs,G吸引其他的新的项目：Attracting new players who are not exposed to the same barriers,or can accept a lower IRR(for instance because they have access to cheaper capital),G吸引其他的投资方：Attracting new players who bring the capacity to implement a new technology,andG减少风险：Reducing inflation/exchange rate risk affecting expected revenues and attractiveness for investors.2023/3/2826