Chap总需求与总供给实用.pptx

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1、短期经济波动短期经济波动Short-Run Economic Fluctuationsu实际GDP的减少，收入的下降与失业增加的时期被称为衰退。A recession is a period of declining real GDP,falling incomes,and rising unemployment.u严重的衰退就构成了萧条。A depression is a severe recession.第1页/共54页经济波动的三个关键事实经济波动的三个关键事实Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuationsu经济波动是无规律的和无法预测的。Econ

2、omic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable.u经济中的波动通常被称为经济周期。Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle.u大多数宏观经济变量同时波动。Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.u随着产量减少，失业增加。As output falls,unemployment rises.第2页/共54页衰退衰退(a)实际实际GDPBillions of1992 Dollars1965197019751

3、9801985199019952,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500$7,000Real GDP短期经济波动的观察短期经济波动的观察A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations第3页/共54页经济波动的三个关键事实经济波动的三个关键事实Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuationsu大多数宏观经济变量同时波动 Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.u大多数衡量某种收入、支出或生产过程的宏观经济变量几乎是同时变

4、动的。Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together.u虽然许多宏观经济变量同时变动，但他们波动的幅度并不相同。Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate together,they fluctuate by different amounts.第4页/共54页衰退衰退(b)投资支出投资支出Billions of1992 Dollars3004005006007008009001,000

5、$1,100投资支出投资支出1965197019751980198519901995短期经济波动的观察短期经济波动的观察A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations第5页/共54页经济波动的三个关键事实经济波动的三个关键事实Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuationsu随着产量减少，失业增加 As output falls,unemployment rises.u实际GDP变化与失业率的变化呈负相关。Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in th

6、e unemployment rate.u整个衰退时期，失业率都大幅度上升。During times of recession,unemployment rises substantially.第6页/共54页Recessions(c)失业率失业率失业率失业率0246810121965197019751980198519901995Percent ofLabor Force短期经济波动的观察短期经济波动的观察A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations第7页/共54页短期与长期的不同短期与长期的不同How the Short Run Differs Fro

7、m the Long Runu大多数经济学家认为，古典理论描述长期世界，并不描述短期世界。Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run.u货币供给的变动影响名义变量，但并不影响实际变量。Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables in the long run.u在研究逐年的经济波动时，货币中性的假设就不再适用了。The

8、assumption of monetary neutrality is not appropriate when studying year-to-year changes in the economy.第8页/共54页经济波动的基本模型经济波动的基本模型The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuationsu短期经济波动的分析模型主要用到两个变量。Two variables are used to develop a model to analyze the short-run fluctuations.u用实际GDP衡量的经济的物品与劳务产量 The econo

9、mys output of goods and services measured by real GDP.u用CPI或GDP平减指数衡量物价总水平 The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.第9页/共54页经济波动的基本模型经济波动的基本模型The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations经济学家用总需求与总供给模型来解释长期趋势下的短期经济波动。Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply

10、to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.第10页/共54页经济波动的基本模型经济波动的基本模型The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuationsu总需求曲线表示在每一种物价水平时，家庭、企业和政府想购买的物品与劳务的数量。The aggregate demand curve shows the quantity of goods and services that households,firms,and the government want

11、 to buy at each price level.第11页/共54页经济波动的基本模型经济波动的基本模型The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuationsu总供给曲线表示在每一种物价水平时，企业生产并出售的物品与劳务的数量。The aggregate supply curve shows the quantity of goods and services that firms produce and sell at each price level.第12页/共54页总需求与总供给总需求与总供给Aggregate Demand and Aggregate

12、Supply均衡数量均衡数量产量产量物价水平物价水平0均衡物价水平均衡物价水平总供给总供给总需求总需求第13页/共54页总需求曲线总需求曲线The Aggregate Demand CurveuGDP（Y）的四个组成部分都对物品与劳务的总需求作出了贡献。The four components of GDP(Y)contribute to the aggregate demand for goods and services.Y=C+I+G+NX第14页/共54页总需求曲线总需求曲线The Aggregate Demand CurveQuantity ofOutputPriceLevel0总需求

13、总需求P1Y1Y2P22.增加了物品与劳务的需求量增加了物品与劳务的需求量1.物价水平物价水平的下降的下降第15页/共54页为什么总需求曲线向右下方倾斜为什么总需求曲线向右下方倾斜Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Is Downward Slopingu物价水平与消费：财富效应 The Price Level and Consumption:The Wealth Effectu物价水平与投资：利率效应 The Price Level and Investment:The Interest Rate Effectu物价水平与净出口：汇率效应 The Price Lev

14、el and Net Exports:The Exchange-Rate Effect第16页/共54页物价水平与投资：利率效应物价水平与投资：利率效应The Price Level and Consumption:The Wealth Effectu物价水平的下降使消费者更富裕，这又鼓励他们更多的支出。A decrease in the price level makes consumers feel more wealthy,which in turn encourages them to spend more.u消费支出的增加意味着物品与劳务的需求量更大。This increase in

15、 consumer spending means larger quantities of goods and services demanded.第17页/共54页物价水平与投资：利率效应物价水平与投资：利率效应The Price Level and Investment:The Interest Rate Effectu更低的价格水平降低了利率，鼓励了更多支出用于投资物品，从而增加了物品与劳务的需求量 A lower price level reduces the interest rate,which encourages greater spending on investment g

16、oods.u这增加了物品与劳务的需求量。This increase in investment spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.第18页/共54页物价水平与净出口：汇率效应物价水平与净出口：汇率效应The Price Level and net Exports:The Exchange-Rate Effectu当美国物价水平下降引起美国利率下降时，实际汇率贬值，这刺激了美国的净出口。When a fall in the U.S.price level causes U.S.interest rate

17、s to fall,the real exchange rate depreciates,which stimulates U.S.net exports.u净出口的增加意味着物品与劳务需求量的增加。The increase in net export spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.第19页/共54页为什么总需求曲线会移动为什么总需求曲线会移动Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Might Shiftu总需求曲线向右下方倾斜表明物价水平下降增加了物品与劳务的总需求量。Th

18、e downward slope of the aggregate demand curve shows that a fall in the price level raises the overall quantity of goods and services demanded.u许多其他因素也影响物价水平为既定时，物品与劳务的需求量减少了。Many other factors,however,affect the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level.u当这些因素中的一种发生变动时，总需求曲线移

19、动。When one of these other factors changes,the aggregate demand curve shifts.第20页/共54页为什么总需求曲线会移动为什么总需求曲线会移动Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Might Shiftu消费引起的变动 Shifts arising from Consumptionu投资引起的变动 Shifts arising from Investmentu政府购买引起的变动 Shifts arising from Government Purchasesu净出口引起的变动 Shifts aris

20、ing from Net Exports第21页/共54页总需求曲线的移动总需求曲线的移动Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve.Quantity ofOutputPriceLevel0Aggregatedemand,D1P1Y1D2Y2 第22页/共54页总供给曲线总供给曲线The Aggregate Supply Curveu在长期中，总供给曲线是垂线。In the long run,the aggregate-supply curve is vertical.u在短期，总供给曲线向右上方倾斜。In the short run,the aggregate-

21、supply curve is upward sloping.第23页/共54页长期总供给曲线长期总供给曲线The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curveu在长期中，一个经济的物品与劳务取决于他的资本、劳动和自然资源的供给，以及用来把资本与劳动变为物品与劳务的生产技术。In the long-run,an economys production of goods and services depends on its supplies of labor,capital,and natural resources and on the available technolo

22、gy used to turn these factors of production into goods and services.u在长期中，物价水平不会影响上述这些变量。The price level does not affect these variables in the long run.第24页/共54页长期总供给曲线长期总供给曲线The Long-Run Aggregate Supply CurveQuantity ofOutput自然产量率自然产量率Price Level0Long-runaggregatesupplyP1P2 2.并不影响长期中并不影响长期中物品与劳务的

23、供给量物品与劳务的供给量1.物件水平变物件水平变动动第25页/共54页长期总供给曲线长期总供给曲线The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curveu长期总供给曲线是在自然产量率时的一条垂线。The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at the natural rate of output.u这种生产水平有时称为潜在产量或充分就业就业产量。This level of production is also referred to as potential output or full-employment output.

24、第26页/共54页为什么长期总供给曲线会移动为什么长期总供给曲线会移动Why the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shiftu经济种任何改变自然产量率的变动都会使长期总供给曲线移动。Any change in the economy that alters the natural rate of output shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve.u根据古典模型种影响产量的各种因素，长期总供给曲线的移动可以归源于：The shifts may be categorized according to

25、the various factors in the classical model that affect output.第27页/共54页为什么长期总供给曲线会移动为什么长期总供给曲线会移动Why the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shiftu劳动引起的移动 Shifts arising from Laboru资本引起的移动 Shifts arising from Capitalu自然资源引起的移动 Shifts arising from Natural Resourcesu技术知识引起的移动 Shifts arising from Tec

26、hnological Knowledge 第28页/共54页1.在长期，技术进步使长期总供给曲线移动LRAS2000LRAS1990长期增长与通货膨胀长期增长与通货膨胀Long-Run Growth and InflationQuantity ofOutputPrice Level0P1980Y1980AD1980P2000P1990LRAS19802以及货币供给增长使总需求移动AD2000AD19904.及持续的通货膨胀.Y1990Y2000 3.引起产量的增长第29页/共54页长期增长与通货膨胀长期增长与通货膨胀Long-Run Growth and Inflation短期的产量与物价水平

27、波动应当作为持续的长期趋势的背离。Short-run fluctuations in output and price level should be viewed as deviations from the continuing long-run trends.第30页/共54页为什么短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜为什么短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜Why the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Slopes Upwardu在短期内，经济中物价总水平的上升有增加物品与劳务供给量的趋势。In the short run,an increase in the over

28、all level of prices in the economy tends to raise the quantity of goods and services supplied.u物价水平的下降有减少物品与劳务供给量的趋势。A decrease in the level of prices tends to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.第31页/共54页短期总供给曲线短期总供给曲线The Short-Run Aggregate Supply CurveQuantity ofOutputPrice Level0S

29、hort-runaggregatesupplyY1P1Y22.减少了短期中物品与劳务的供给量。.P21.物价水平的下降第32页/共54页为什么短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜为什么短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜Why the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Slopes Upwardu错觉理论 The Misperceptions Theoryu黏性工资理论 The Sticky-Wage Theoryu黏性价格理论 The Sticky-Price Theory第33页/共54页错觉理论错觉理论The Misperceptions Theoryu物价总水平的变动会暂时

30、误导了供给者对出售他们产品的市场发生变动的看法。Changes in the overall price level temporarily mislead suppliers about what is happening in the markets in which they sell their output:u更低的物价水平引起相对价格的错觉。A lower price level causes misperceptions about relative prices.u这些错觉引起供给者较少物品与劳务的供给量 These misperceptions induce supplier

31、s to decrease the quantity of goods and services supplied.第34页/共54页黏性工资理论黏性工资理论The Sticky-Wage Theoryu名义工资调整缓慢，或者说在短期中是黏性的：Nominal wages are slow to adjust,or are“sticky”in the short run:u工资不能根据物价水平作出迅速调整。Wages do not adjust immediately to a fall in the price level.u较低的物价水平对就业与生产不利。A lower price lev

32、el makes employment and production less profitable.u这使企业减少了物品与劳务的供给量。This induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.第35页/共54页黏性价格理论黏性价格理论The Sticky-Price Theoryu一些物品与劳务的价格对经济状况变动的调整也是缓慢的：Prices of some goods and services adjust sluggishly in response to changing economic co

33、nditions:u未预料到的物价水平下降使一些企业的价格高于合意水平 An unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with higher-than-desired prices.u这压低了销售，并引起企业减少他们生产的物品与劳务的量。This depresses sales,which induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services they produce.第36页/共54页为什么短期总供给曲线会移动为什么短期总供给曲线会移动Why the Aggreg

34、ate Supply Curve Might Shiftu劳动引起的移动 Shifts arising from Laboru资本引起的移动 Shifts arising from Capitalu自然资源引起的移动 Shifts arising from Natural Resources.u技术引起的移动 Shifts arising from Technology.u预期物价水平引起的移动 Shifts arising from the Expected Price Level.第37页/共54页u预期物价水平的上升减少了物品与劳务供给量，并使短期总供给曲线向左移动 An increas

35、e in the expected price level reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left.u预期物价水平下降增加了物品与劳务供给量，并使短期总供给曲线向右移动。A decrease in the expected price level raises the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregat

36、e supply curve to the right.为什么短期总供给曲线会移动为什么短期总供给曲线会移动Why the Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift第38页/共54页长期均衡长期均衡The Long-Run EquilibriumQuantity ofOutputPriceLevel0短期总供给短期总供给长期总供给长期总供给总需求总需求A均衡物价均衡物价自然产量率自然产量率第39页/共54页1.总需求减少AD2总需求的减少总需求的减少A Contraction in Aggregate Demand.Quantity ofOutputPriceLev

37、el0短期总供给短期总供给,AS1 长期总供给长期总供给总需求总需求,AD1AP1Y1BP2Y2 2.引起短期中产量下降AS2CP33.但随着时间推移，短期总供给曲线移动4.使产量恢复到其自然率水平.第40页/共54页总需求的移动总需求的移动Shifts in Aggregate Demandu在短期中，总需求的移动引起经济中产品与劳务产量的波动。In the short run,shifts in aggregate demand cause fluctuations in the economys output of goods and services.u在长期中，总需求的变动影响总物价

38、水平，但没有影响产量。In the long run,shifts in aggregate demand affect the overall price level but do not affect output.第41页/共54页总供给的不利移动总供给的不利移动An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supplyu总供给的某个决定因素的减少使曲线向左移动：A decrease in one of the determinants of aggregate supply shifts the curve to the left:u产量下降到自然就业率水平以下。Outp

39、ut falls below the natural rate of employment.u失业增加 Unemployment rises.u物价上涨 The price level rises.第42页/共54页1.短期总供给曲线的不利移动AS2长期总供给长期总供给短期共供给短期共供给,AS1Quantity ofOutputPriceLevel0Aggregate demandAY1P1总供给的不利移动总供给的不利移动An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply3.以及物价水平上涨 P22.引起产量下降BY2第43页/共54页滞胀滞胀Stagflationu总

40、供给的不利移动引起了滞胀衰退与通货膨胀的糅合。Adverse shifts in aggregate supply cause stagflationa combination of recession and inflation.u产量下降，物价上升 Output falls and prices rise.u决策者能影响总需求，但不能同时抵消这两种不利的影响Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.第44页/共54页对衰

41、退的政策反响对衰退的政策反响Policy Responses to Recessionu决策者可以下面的一种方法对衰退作出反应：Policymakers may respond to a recession in one of the following ways:u什么也不做，等待物价与工资的自行调整。Do nothing and wait for prices and wages to adjust.u通过采取货币与财政政策措施来增加总需求。Take action to increase aggregate demand by using monetary and fiscal polic

42、y.第45页/共54页AS21.当短期总供给减少时总供给的不利移动的改善总供给的不利移动的改善Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate SupplyQuantity ofOutput自然产量率自然产量率PriceLevel0短期总供给短期总供给,AS1 总需求总需求,AD1长期总供给长期总供给AP1P2P33这引起物价水平进一步上升 4.但产量保持自然率水平.C2.决策者可以通过扩大总需求来改善这种不利移动AD2第46页/共54页总供给移动的影响总供给移动的影响The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supplyu总

43、供给移动会引起滞胀衰退与通货膨胀的结合。Shifts in aggregate supply can cause stagflation a combination of recession and inflation.u决策者能影响总需求，但不能同时抵消这两种不利的影响。Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.第47页/共54页总结总结Summaryu所有社会都经历过围绕长期趋势的短期经济波动。All societies

44、 experience short-run economic fluctuations around long-run trends.u这种波动时无规律的，而且大体上是无法预测的。These fluctuations are irregular and largely unpredictable.u当水衰退发生时，实际GDP和收入、产出与生产的衡量指标都下降，而失业会增加。When recessions occur,real GDP and other measures of income,spending,and production fall,and unemployment rises.

45、第48页/共54页总结总结Summaryu经济学家用总需求与总供给模型分析短期经济波动。Economists analyze short-run economic fluctuations using the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model.u根据总需求与总供给模型，产品与劳务的产量和物价总水平调整使总需求与总供给平衡。According to the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply,the output of goods and services and the overal

46、l level of prices adjust to balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply.第49页/共54页总结总结Summaryu总需求曲线向右下方倾斜有三个原因：财富效应，利率效应，汇率效应。The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward for three reasons:a wealth effect,an interest rate effect,and an exchange rate effect.u任何一种增加在物价水平为既定时消费、投资政府购买或净出口的事件或政策都会引起总需求曲线

47、的移动。Any event or policy that changes consumption,investment,government purchases,or net exports at a given price level will shift the aggregate-demand curve.第50页/共54页总结总结Summaryu在长期中，总供给曲线是垂直的。In the long run,the aggregate supply curve is vertical.u在短期，总供给曲线向右上方倾斜。The short-run,the aggregate supply

48、curve is upward sloping.u有三种理论解释短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜：错觉理论，黏性工资理论，黏性价格理论。There are three theories explaining the upward slope of short-run aggregate supply:the misperceptions theory,the sticky-wage theory,and the sticky-price theory.第51页/共54页总结总结Summaryu改变经济生产产量能力的事件将会引起短期总供给曲线的移动。Events that alter the econ

49、omys ability to produce output will shift the short-run aggregate-supply curve.u并且，短期总供给曲线的位置取决于预期的物价水平。Also,the position of the short-run aggregate-supply curve depends on the expected price level.u经济波动的一个可能原因是总需求的变动。One possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate demand.第52页/共54页总结总结Summaryu经济波动的第二个可能原因是总供给的移动。A second possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate supply.u滞胀是产量下降和物价上升的时期。Stagflation is a period of falling output and rising prices.第53页/共54页感谢您的欣赏！第54页/共54页