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1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。供应链习题课-1.MoonMicroisasmallmanufacturerofserversthatcurrentlybuildsallofitsproductinSantaClara,California.Asthemarketforservershasgrowndramatically,theSantaClaraplanthasreachedcapacityof10,000serversperyear.Moonisconsideringtwooptionstoincreaseitscapacity
2、.Thefirstoptionistoadd10,000unitsofcapacitytotheSantaClaraplantatanannualizedfixedcostof$10,000,000plus$500laborperserver.ThesecondoptionistohaveMolectron,anindependentassembler,manufactureserversforMoonatacostof$2,000foreachserver(excludingrawmaterialscost),rawmaterialscost$8,000perserver,andMoonse
3、llseachserverfor$15,000.Moonmustmakethisdecisionforatwo-yeartimehorizon.Duringeachyear,demandforMoonservershasan80percentchanceofincreasing50percentfromtheyearbeforeanda20percentchanceofremainingthesameastheyearbefore.Molectronspricesmaychangeaswell.Theyarefixedforthefirstyearbuthavea50percentchance
4、ofincreasing20percentinthesecondyearanda50percentchanceofremainingwheretheyare.UsingadecisiontreetodeterminewhetherMoonshouldaddcapacitytoitsSantaClaraplantorifitshouldoutsourcetoMolectron.Whataresomeotherfactorsthatwouldaffectthisdecisionthatwehavenotdiscussed.Assumethatadiscountfactoris10percent.注
5、意：Moon已有设备产能为10,000，对两种方案都是一样提供该产能，所以比较增量需求利润即可。OptionAYear2Revenue2=(20,000-10,000)*15,000*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*150,000*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*0.04Variablecost2=(20,000-10,000)*500*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*500*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.04Fixedcost2=10,000,000Totalcost2=Variablecost2
6、+Totalcost2Profit2=Revenue2-Totalcost2Year1Revenue1=(15,000-10,000)*15,000*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*150,000*0.2Variablecost1=(15,000-10,000)*500*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.2Fixedcost1=10,000,000Totalcost1=Variablecost1+Totalcost1Profit1=Revenue1-Totalcost1BaseYear0Profit0=0OptionBYear2Revenue2=(22,500-10,
7、000)*15,000*(0.32+0.32)+(15,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.02+0.02)Cost2=(22,500-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.32+(22,500-10,000)*(2400+8000)*0.32+(15,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(15,000-10,000)*(2400+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(10,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.02+(10,000-10,0
8、00)*(2400+8000)*0.02Profit2=Revenue2-TotalCost2同理可得Year1,Year0利润，代入下式：比较NPVA,NPVB大者为最优方案！2.WeeklysalesofHotPizzaareasfollows:WeekDemand($)WeekDemand($)WeekDemand($)11085969112211661191010231187961192412481021291Estimatedemandforthenextfourweeksusingafour-weekmovingaverageandsimpleexponentialsmoothin
9、gwith=0.1.EvaluatetheMAD,MAPE,MSE,bias,andTSineachcase.Whichofthetwomethodsdoyouprefer?Why?Refertoexcel!3.HarleyDavidsonhasitsassemblyplantinMilwaukeeanditsmotorcycleassemblyplantinPennsylvania.Enginesaretransportedbetweenthetwoplantsusingtrucks,witheachtripcosting$1000.Themotorcycleplantassemblesan
10、dsells300motorcycleseachday.Eachenginecosts$500,andHarleyincursaholdingcostof20percentperyear.HowmanyenginesshouldHarleyloadontoeachtruck?WhatisthecycleinventoryofenginesatHarley?Solution:Theeconomicorderquantityisgivenby.Inthisproblem:D=109,500(i.e.,300units/daymultipliedby365days/year)S=$1000/orde
11、rH=hC=0.2*500=$100/unit/yearSo,theEOQvalueis1480unitsSothetotalyearlycostis$147,986.ThecycleinventoryvalueisEOQ/2=1480/2=7404.Prefab,afurnituremanufacturer,uses20,000squarefeetofplywoodpermonth.TheirtruckingcompanychargesPrefab$400pershipment,independentofthequantitypurchased.Themanufactureroffersan
12、allunitquantitydiscountwithapriceof$1persquarefootforordersunder20,000squarefeet,$0.98persquarefootforordersbetween20,000squarefeetand40,000squarefeet,and$0.96persquarefootfororderslargerthan40,000squarefeet.Prefabincursaholdingcostof20percentperyear.WhatistheoptimallotsizeforPrefab?Whatistheannualc
13、ostofsuchapolicy?WhatisthecycleinventoryofplywoodatPrefab?Howdoesitcomparewiththecycleinventoryifthemanufacturerdoesnotofferaquantitydiscountbutsellsallplywoodat$0.96persquarefoot?SolutionPricing:MinQtyMaxQtyPricepersq.ft.019,999$1.0020,00040,000$0.9840,000$0.96(1)For,price=$1.00perunitQ1=EOQ=SinceQ
14、119,999WeselectQ1=20,000(breakpoint)andevaluatethecorrespondingtotalcost,whichincludespurchasecost+holdingcost+ordercostTotalCost1=$241,960(2)For,price=$0.98perunitQ2=EOQ=TotalCost2=$241,334(3)For,price=$0.96perunitQ3=EOQ=WeselectQ3=40,000(breakpoint)andevaluatethecorrespondingtotalcost,whichinclude
15、spurchasecost+holdingcost+ordercostTotalCost3=$236,640TotalCost3TotalCost2TotalCost1So,theoptimalvalueofQ*=40000andthetotalcostis$236,640ThecycleinventoryisQ*/2=40000/2=20000(b)Ifthemanufacturerdidnotofferaquantitydiscountbutsoldallplywoodat$0.96persquarefootthenQ=31,623andthetotalcostis$233,4365.We
16、eklydemandforMotorolacellphonesataBestBuystoreisnormallydistributed,withameanof300andastandarddeviationof200.MotorolatakestwoweekstosupplyaBestBuyorder.BestBuyistargetingaCSLof95%andmonitorsitsinventorycontinuously.HowmuchsafetyinventoryofcellphonesshouldBestBuycarry?WhatshoulditsROPbe.SolutionDL=LD
17、=2*300=600=283ss=FS-1(CSL)sL=FS-1(0.95)283=465(where,FS-1(0.95)=NORMSINV(0.95)=1.6431)ROP=DL+ss=600+465=10656.AssumethattheBestBuystoreinExercise1.Thestoremanagerhasdecidedtoreviewinventoryeverythreeweeks.Assumingaperiodicreviewreplenishmentpolicy,evaluatethesafetyinventorythatthestoreshouldcarrytop
18、rovideaCSL95%.EvaluatetheOULforsuchapolicy.SolutionDL=(T+L)D=(2+3)*300=1500=447ss=FS-1(CSL)sL=FS-1(0.95)447=736(where,FS-1(0.95)=NORMSINV(0.95)=1.6431)OUL=D(T+L)+ss=1500+736=2236Supplychain,cycleinventory,safetyinventory,replenishmentpolicy,continuousreview,periodicreview,productfillrate,cycleservic
19、elevel,economiesofscale,thefixedorderingcost,holdingcost,materialcost,totalcost,optimallotsize,averageflowtime,quantitydiscount,supplychainstrategy,supplychainplanning,supplychainoperation,cycleviewofsupplychainprocesses,push/pullviewofsupplychainprocesses,supplychainperformance,strategicfit,cost-re
20、sponsivenessefficientfrontier,competitivestrategy,levelofproductavailability,distributionnetwork,facilitylocation,capacityallocation,decisiontree,demandforecasting,timeseriesforecastingmethods,simpleexponentialsmoothing,forecasterror,meansquarederror,aggregateplanning,subcontracting,timeflexibilitystrategy,chasestrategy,marginalunitquantitydiscount,forwardbuy.-