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1、Why Is China So Competitive?Measuring and Explaining Chinas Competitivenessby F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University,Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii at Manoa,and Yochanan Shachmurove, City University of New York1Working Paper No. 04-62October 2004 （selection）Comparative Advantage and Internati
2、onal CompetitivenessThe explanation of international competitiveness by economists goes back many years to the theory of comparative advantage and factor pricing (Ricardo and Heckscher-Ohlin). While Ricardo focused on one production factor and differences in technology (climate), Heckscher and Ohlin
3、 dealt with labor and capital inputs and justified comparative advantage on the basis of underlying differences in factor endowments and relative factor prices. This approach has been extended to many products and many factors (Dornbusch, Fisher, and Samuelson, 1977). In the modern theory of trade u
4、nder imperfect competition, comparative advantage continues to play a central role in explaining trade patterns, although scale economies and strategic motives are also important (Helpman and Krugman, 1985). Ronald Jones (2000) has noted that absolute advantages may influence patterns of specializat
5、ion if some inputs to production are mobile across borders.Comparative advantage may lie at the heart of the theory of specialization and trade but it is not always closely related to real world discussions of competitiveness. First, comparative advantage is a microeconomic concept, focusing on indu
6、stry-specific trade, explaining why one country might export labor-intensive products while another country might specialize in capital-intensive ones. By definition each country has a comparative advantage in the production of some productsthose for which it has a lower relative (opportunity) cost
7、than its competitors.Therefore, comparative advantage has little significance from a macroeconomic perspective. It is not meaningful to say that at any time country A in the aggregate has a comparative advantage over country B.Second, comparative advantage is an equilibrium concept, predicting a pat
8、tern of trade when prices, trade flows and exchange rates are in equilibrium. Business decisions, in contrast, often must explicitly consider short-term developments as well as long term equilibrium outcomes. These will include current economic conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, and other facto
9、rs that represent deviations from long-run equilibrium conditions.Finally comparative advantage does not take specifically into account all the technological options available to the producers. At the microeconomic level, when dealing with specific products, it is not always clear from theory which
10、country has the most favorable mix of resources and factor prices for various types of production. Depending on technology and infrastructure, a shortage of labor relative to capital which implies relatively high wage rates may be offset by differences in productivity. High wages may or may not tran
11、slate into competitive disadvantage for labor-intensive products if alternative technologies using less labor and more capital are available. For example, many products that are produced by hand in China are also produced, by machine, in the United States.Competitiveness, a term used widely in the b
12、usiness administration literature (Porter, 1990), has been often been applied in Europe and the US to represent the failures or successes of the economy. By competitiveness we mean the ability under present conditions of a countrys products to command world markets.In contrast to comparative advanta
13、ge, it is appropriate to talk meaningfully about international competitiveness both on the macro and micro level. International competitiveness is a matter largely of costs: which country is able to deliver the product to the market most cheaply. Contributing to costs are factors that directly affec
14、t input prices, such as exchange rates, domestic wages and material costs, and productivity, but also capabilities to produce goods of appropriate quality and meeting market specifications. Transportation and communication costs, and trade barriers and trade strategy may all play a role. Competitive
15、ness is not an equilibrium concept. It represents a position at a point in time or its change over time. Since adjustment on the product supply side is likely to be very slowit takes many years to establish production facilities and export marketscompetitiveness typically refers to a time of disequi
16、librium when a country can increase its share of export markets. In other words, competitiveness often refers to dynamic rather than static perspectives.Common usage of the term, competitiveness, is usually broader than would be implied by a formal definition. In particular, advocates for competitiv
17、eness often stress the role of sustained productivity growth in producing products that meet the test of international markets and that leads to higher living standards. (Porter 1990, Competitiveness Policy Council, 1992). It is in this context that the term has been embraced by politicians to repre
18、sent the failures or successes of Western economies. But, the ability to command world markets (for a time) does not necessarily imply higher living standards. A countrys products may be competitive because it has undervalued its currency. In that case, terms of trade may be unfavorable from a welfa
19、re point of view, goods may be exported cheaply in terms of the imports. Nevertheless, the effects on trade and production are real, as are the necessary structural adjustments that go along with them.In contrast to comparative advantage, it is appropriate to talk meaningfully about international co
20、mpetitiveness both on the macro and micro level. At the macro level, a countrys exports may be highly competitive in the destination countries or in comparison with products originating in other countries. That may reflect underlying factor cost and productivity considerations. It may also reflect t
21、he current exchange rate, undervaluation or overvaluation, as well as tariffs, transportation costs and trade restrictions as well as product quality and specifications. Competitiveness has dynamic attributes in the sense that, given resource environment, countries may become more competitive as a r
22、esult of learning-by doing, assimilation of technology, capital accumulation, increasing scale of production, and policy intervention. Contrary to some thinking, it does make sense to think of a countrys aggregate competitiveness and about policies intended to advance its competitiveness.From a micr
23、o perspective as well, it is possible to ask whether certain industries are competitive in world markets. This calls for a cost comparison, at a prevailing exchange rate, involving such factors as wages and capital costs, scale of production, and, of course, productivity. As we have noted in the dis
24、cussion of comparative advantage, some industries will be more suited to an economys endowment of factors and skills than others. A dynamic improvement in competitiveness may mean that the competitiveness of currently exporting industries improves or that new products, perhaps technologically more a
25、dvanced ones, become competitive.Measurement of CompetitivenessThe measurement of international competitiveness may be approached from a “results” or from a “causes” perspective. Results are basically export performance and the trade balance. These are ex post concepts and do not ask “why”, though t
26、here is often an implied explanation. Growth of exports, particularly growth that is more rapid than in other countries, implies competitiveness. A positive trade balance is also frequently cited as a positive measure of competitiveness. Presumably, competitiveness reflects relative costs, but it ma
27、y also be affected by product attributes and trade restrictions. This may lead to confusion. Thus, a country that is running a trade surplus, may be suffering outflows of capital and its undervalued exchange rate may make its exports competitive. It is not clear that this type of competitiveness is
28、a good thing. Alternatively, a trade deficit may follow from a countrys attractiveness to foreign investors whose capital inflow causes the exchange rate to be overvalued from the perspective of trade.A classical results measure, focused on particular industries, was Balassas “revealed comparative a
29、dvantage” (RCA) (Balassa, 1965), the share of a countrys exports of a specific product category (Xij) to its total exports (iXij) as compared to the share of total world exports of the specific category (jXij) in world exports of all goods (ijXij),RCAij = Xij/ /(iXij)/ (jXij)/ (ijXij).Balassa relate
30、s RCA measures to such underlying factors as capital intensity and human resource development (Balassa, 1979). The RCAs are sector specific and static. It is possible to make them dynamic by focusing on comparisons over time and in terms of rates of change. For example, growth of a specific export m
31、ore rapidly than world wide growth of the specific product exports suggests competitiveness in the specific product. Such a dynamic comparison is shown above. One may want to measure international competitiveness directly, seeking the causes for of a countrys or an industrys international trade succ
32、ess. The exchange rate is, of course, the most immediate measure of the terms of trade. However, the nominal exchange rate, though relevant to trade transactions, fails to take into account differences in domestic currency production costs. Comparisons of the temporal movement of real exchange rates
33、 can be computed by adjusting changes in nominal exchange rates for the underlying domestic price movements.中国为什么这么有竞争力？测评和解释中国的竞争力情况 （节选）比较优势和国家竞争力经济学者对国际竞争力的解释比对比较优势（李嘉图）和要素禀赋理论（赫克歇尔-俄林）晚许多年。比较优势理论中，李嘉图强调生产要素和技术差异；而赫克歇尔-俄林的要素禀赋理论关注劳动和资本的通入，并在各国要素禀赋和相关要素价格不同的基础上，论证了比较优势。这种方法延伸到许多产品和许多要素方面（Dornbusc，
34、Fisher and Smuelson,1977）。在现代贸易理论中，在不完全竞争下，比较优势在解释贸易方式方面继续担当一个重要角色，虽然规模经济和动机策略也是很重要的（Helpman and Krugman,1985）。Ronald Jones(2000)已经注意到，如果对生产的一些要素的边际投入是可变的，那么绝对比较优势将影响专业化的形式。比较优势可能是专业化和贸易理论的核心，但是它并不总是接近被世界广泛讨论的竞争力。首先，比较优势是一个微观经济学的概念，它强调的是产业专业化贸易，解释为什么当一个国家专攻资本密集型产品的时候，而另一个国家可能确在输出劳动密集型产品。根据定义，每个国家在某些
35、产品的生产上具有比较优势,这些产品相关成本或机会成本低于它的竞争者。因此，比较优势，从经济的宏观方面来讲，具有一定的重要性。但是这并不意味着A国在某种产品的生产上永远比B国更占优势。其次，比较优势是一个平衡的概念，当价格、贸易流量和汇率处在平衡状态时，预测一种贸易的形式。一项商业决策，相反，则要时常明确考虑短期发展和长期发展的平衡结果。这些将会对包括现在的经济情况、汇率变动和其他的来自长期平衡条件下的偏离要素。最后，比较优势不把所有生产者都可以获得的科学技术考虑在内。在微观经济下水平上，当涉及到某项特定产品时，但从理论方面来确定哪个国家拥有最优的资源组合和不同产品的要素价格不是很清楚。依赖科学
36、技术和内部结构形成的优势，可能会被由于与资本相关的劳动力短缺而造成的劳动工资率过高而在生产力中被抵消。如果使用较少的劳动力和较多的资本替代可选择的技术是可能的，那么高工资或许就不会转变为竞争劣势。举例来说，许多在中国用手工生产的产品在美国同样也有生产，但是使用机器来生产的。竞争力，一个在1990年被波特在商业管理报告中广泛用到的词语，已经被欧洲和美国用作衡量经济的成功与失败的指标。竞争力，我们是指在现有条件下，一国产品在国际市场上的占有率和获利能力。与比较优势不同，在宏观和微观层面讨论国际竞争力是恰当的。国际竞争力是一种成本比较：哪一个国家能够最廉价地把产品投放到国际市场。影响成本的因素主要有
37、那些直接影响价格的因素，比如：汇率、国内工资水平、生产资料价格、生产能力，但是还应包括能够很好地生产高质量并能满足视察概念特定要求的产品的能力。运输费用和沟通成本、贸易壁垒和贸易策略同样有不可忽视的作用。竞争力不是一个平衡概念，它体现的是一定时期的水平状况或者是随着实践而发生的变化。因为在产品供给方面的调整可能是赔偿缓慢的构建生产产品的基础设施和出口市场的开发可能需要很多年，所以，竞争力典型地涉及到当一个国家可以提高它产品的国际市场份额时期的不平衡。换句话说，竞争力时常涉及动态的而非静态的远景。竞争力，一个经常使用的术语，通常有着比正式定义更宽泛的含义。尤其，竞争力的倡导者更加强调维持在生产产
38、品过程中生产力的提高以满足市场需求的能力和提高人们生活水平的能力（波特，竞争力政策议会，1992）。在本文中，定义被政治家强调为体现西方经济的失败和成功。但是，在一定时期内，能力并不能必然导致生活水平的提高。某国产品具有竞争力可能是因为它的价格低于它的通货价值。在这种情况下，从福利的角度来看，贸易条件可能是不利的，产品可能会廉价地根据进口条件出口输出。然而，对贸易和生产上的影响是确定的，如必须配合进行的结构性调整。与比较优势不同，在宏观和微观层面全面讨论国际竞争力是非常恰当的。在宏观层面，一个国家的出口商品在目的国或与其他生产国相比是具有很强的竞争力的。那可能反映在下面的要素价格和生产力条件上
39、，也可能反映在现有的汇率、低估或高估，关税、运输费用、贸易限制和产品质量规格方面。在某种意义上，竞争力具有很强的这样的属性：在给定资源环境下，一个国家，可能会因技术的进步、资本的积累，生产规模的不断增加和政策干涉而变得更有竞争力。和一般的观点不同，这确实可以从整体上考虑一个国家的竞争力和有关政策的实施会增强其竞争力。从微观层面看，我们可以讨论某个特定产业在国际市场上是否具有竞争力。这就需要一个成本的比较，在一个现行的汇率水平上，包括的要素有如工资、资本成本、生产规模，当然，还有生产能力。我们在前面有关竞争优势的讨论中已经注意到，某种行业可能会在一个特定的经济体中比其他行业更始与这个经济体的要素
40、禀赋和技术条件。在竞争力的动态进步中，可能是指现有出口产业竞争力的提高，或者是新的产品，比如，更高技术更先进的产品，变得更有竞争力。竞争力的评价对国际竞争力，可以从“结果”和“原因”两个方面进行评价。结果方面基本是指出口表现和贸易平衡。这些是一种概念而且不需要问为什么，尽管也有些暗示性的解释。出口增长，尤其是这种增长远远超过其他国家时，则说明有竞争力。贸易顺差也经常被当成能够证明具有竞争力的衡量指标。理论上，竞争力反映相关费用成本，但是它可能会被产品属性和贸易限制所影响，这种评价指标将导致混乱。因此，一个有贸易顺差的国家，可能正蒙受资本的外流，而且它的被低估的汇率则使其出口更具竞争力。这种类型
41、的竞争力是否是一件好事，则很难定论。另外，贸易逆差可能是因为从贸易角度来看，这个国家汇率高估对国外投资者的吸引，而导致资本的流入。在结果评价方面，特别是针对某个特定产业，最经典的是Balassa的显示性比较优势（RCA）。RCA是指一国某特定产品的出口额(Xij)占该国总出口额(iXij)的比率与世界上该产品的出口总额(jXij)占世界总出口额(ijXij)的比率的比值。用公式表示是：RCAij = Xij/ /(iXij)/ (jXij)/ (ijXij)Balassa把RCA指数与相关的要素联系在一起，如：资本强度和人力资源发展状况。RCA指数是部门特性和静态的。把重心放在随着时间的变化而变化的汇率方面进行比较是有可能增强这种趋势的。比如，一种特定产品的出口快速增长远远超过世界范围内该产品出口的增长，这说明本国该特定产品具有竞争力。这种不断增强的比较中可以显示出来。如果我们想更加直接的测算某种产品的国际竞争力，我们则要寻找这个国家或这种特定产品国际贸易成功的深层次的原因。汇率，当然是对贸易条件的一个最直接的衡量指标。然而，名义汇率，虽然与贸易有关，但是却没有考虑到各国国内货币成本的不同。实际汇率的及时变动则能够很好体现因名义汇率改变而发生的国内价格调整状况。 经济管理学院国际经济与贸易2003级2班 黄飞飞9