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1、36420164Acta Scientiae CircumstantiaeVol 36 No 4Apr2016No 2014BAC22B03No14DZ1202905No2014-01Supported by the National Key Technology D ProgramNo 2014BAC22B03the Scientific and Technological Project of Shanghai Science andTechnology Committee No 14DZ1202905and the Key Project of Shanghai Environmenta
2、l Protection Bureau Shanghai Branch No 2014-011988E-mail yanrs saes sh cn*E-mail lili saes sh cnBiographyYAN usha 1988femaleE-mail yanrs saes sh cn*Corresponding author E-mail lili saes sh cnDOI 10 13671/j hjkxxb2015 0678 2016J 36 41383-1392Yan SLi LAn J Yet al 2016 Establishment and application of
3、nonlinear response surface model of ozone in the Yangtze iver Delta region duringsummertime J Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae 36 41383-1392121 2*1 21 21 234Carey J Jang5Joshua S Fu612002332200233310008445100065 Air Quality Modeling GroupOffice of Air Quality Planning and StandardsU S Environmental Pro
4、tection AgencyNC 27711USA6 Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN37996 USA2015-03-302015-09-272015-10-0720138WF-CMAQesponse surface modelingSM SMO3O3O3O3O3、VOC、NOx O3O3NOxO350%O372 1%27 9%11070%20138O3CMAQ0253-2468 2016 04-1383-10X515AEstablishment and application of n
5、onlinear response surface model of ozone inthe Yangtze iver Delta region during summertimeYAN usha1 2LI Li1 2*AN Jingyu1 2LU Qing1 2HUANG Cheng1 2WANG Shuxiao3ZHU Yun4Carey J Jang5Joshua S Fu61 State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of the Cause and Prevention of Urban Air Pollution ComplexSh
6、anghai 2002332 Shanghai Academy of Environmental SciencesShanghai 2002333 School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 1000844 College of Environment and EnergySouth China University of TechnologyGuangzhou 5100065 Air Quality Modeling GroupOffice of Air Quality Planning and StandardsU S Environme
7、ntal Protection AgencyNC 27711USA6 Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN37996 USAeceived 30 March 2015received in revised form 27 September 2015accepted 7 October 2015AbstractA large-scale ozone pollution episode occurred in early August 2013 in the Yangtze iver Delta
8、 region In this paperthe response surface36modelSMwas employed to build the functional relationships between ozone precursorsNOxand VOCemissions and ozone concentration based onWF-CMAQ air quality model and emission inventories of anthropogenic air pollutants in the Yangtze iver Delta region Sensiti
9、vity characteristics ofozone chemistrysource contributions of ozone and variations of ozone concentrations under different scenarios were analyzedand the optimal controlscheme based on case study was proposed The dominant control factors for ozone pollution showed clear regional differences in the Y
10、angtze iver Deltaregion The urban sites such as Shanghai Academy of Environmental SciencesHangzhou Wolong Bridge and Nanjing Xuanwu Lake were VOC-limitedwhile the rural areas such as Xuzhou TongshanHefei FeixiLishui Qingtian were NOx-limited The sensitivity characteristics of ozone were dependent on
11、its concentrations With the increase of ozone concentrationall areas presented higher sensitivity to NOx The long-distance transport contributed morethan 50%of ozone pollution in Shanghai on usual days During pollution episodeslocal and regional sources contributed 72 1%whilelong-distancetransport c
12、ontribution decreased to 27 9%By estimating ozone concentrations for 110 groups of scenarios by SMwe concluded that ozone concentrationwould achieve attainment if the emission of ozone precursors from both local and regional sources were reduced by 70%in August 2013 in ShanghaiKeywordsozoneresponse
13、surface model SMCMAQYD egion1IntroductionNOxVOCFannet al2012Brandt et al2013Adon et al2013 Sillman et al2009Li et al20122009 O3NOxVOCO3O3O3O3Chou et al2011、DDMItahashi et al2012OSATLi et al2012 O3/NOz、HCHO/NOy、H2O2/HNO3O3Liu et al2010 DDM、Yarwoodet al2013Tang et al2014 Soontae2009CMAQHDDMDallas Fort
14、 WorthNOxVOCsNOxDDMDunker et al2002 OSATO3 Li2013、2014OSAT、O3O3Wang et al2009 SMWang et al201120138O3、O32Model and parameters2 1SMWF-CMAQO3NOxVOCO3、O3、O32 2WFv3 4 148314CMAQv5 0CMAQCB05 Yarwood et al2005D0136 km 36 kmD0212 km 12 kmD034 km4 km1D01D02Zhang20092006INTEX-BD03Huang et al2011Li et al 2011
15、201381Fig 1Sketch map of modeling domainSM、O3NOxVOCNOxVOCLHSLatin HypercubeSampleStein 1987Xing et al2011NOxVOCSM203020 1 5 SMO32LHSFig 2Sampling results based on LHS method2 3SMCMAQ、SM、SMSMSMSMCMAQSMCMAQSMCMAQCMAQ Xing2011SMSM23 120138、4CMAQ3O3CMAQ4O325831360 520 660 41、034 3O3abcdFig 3Comparison o
16、f modeled and monitored O3concentration23 24301300 12 ppb1 08 ppb6%SM-O31Table 1Evaluation indicators of leave-one-out cross validation0 122 132 501 080 332 790 13%3 74%4 97%1 69%0 50%5 51%0 03%3 97%4 59%1 81%0 59%5 39%ppb2 3 34SM-O3Fig 4esults of leave-one-out cross validation66CMAQ6SM560 920 5%SM-
17、O3683145Fig 5esults of out-of-sample validation2Table 2Evaluation indicators of out-of-sample validation0 160 560 060 270 060 610 23%0 76%0 09%0 41%0 10%0 82%0 24%0 77%0 08%0 41%0 10%0 83%ppb3esults3 1SMO3O3NOxVOCVOCVOC1O3NOxO3PPeak atio PNOxNOxO3O3VOCPNOxNOxO3O3NOx PO3O3NOxVOCPNOxNOxNOxXing et al20
18、11 PSM3 1 1NOxVOCP、6、3、NOxP0 68、0 97、0 971VOCNOxO373NOxP1NOxNOxO37831366NOxVOCO3abcFig 6esponse relationship between emission variations of NOxVOC and O3concentrations in urban zones of the YD egion7NOxVOCO3a-b-c-Fig 7esponse relationship between emission variations of NOxVOC and O3concentrations in
19、 rural zones of the YD egion883143 1 2O3100 ppb、60 100 ppb、40 60 ppb、3PO383PO30 930 68048P、31 13、0 72、0 63P、31 01、0 72、0 54O3NOxO3NOx8O3100 ppb、60 100 ppb、40 60 ppbNOxVOCO3abcFig 8esponse relationship between emission variations of NOxVOC and O3concentrations at high over 100 ppbmedium 60 100 ppblow
20、40 60 ppbO3concentration3 2O3O3O3SM-O3NOxVOCO3O39a20138O351 3%O3VOC17 2%NOx2 5%29 0%18 9%NOx10 1%VOCO310O3510O310983136O327 9%33 7%38 4%O39O3abFig 9Monthly mean of daily 1 h maxima O3concentrationaand O3concentration on pollution daysbin Shanghai10O3Fig 10Diurnal variation of daily 1 h maxima O3conc
21、entration in ShanghaiO3O3SM-O3110O320138O3O3200 gm3100 ppb0 1 5SMNOxVOCO3O3O3O311a110100O3O3O3O3O3811b59c5950%、90%、6009314c6060%、100%、68c68、77c77、87c8797c976NOxVOC c59c60c87c97c6860%、80%c7770%c77O370%O311O3aO3bFig 11Scenarios design for O3attainmentaand O3concentration prediction of attained scenari
22、osb2015O38h42 79%10 17%28 94%8 49%20142013O361 2%22 8%O351 3%19 7%、O38 h、O3、O3、CAMxOSAT、CMAQSMD01D022006INTEX-B2013O3O380 ppb30%70%Li et al 2012O327 9%72 1%Zhang2011O320%50%O3O3O34Conclusions1SM-O3O32O3、VOC、NOxO3O3NOx320138O350%19 7%29 0%O3100 ppb27 9%72 1%4O370%20131931368O3eferencesAdon M Galy-Lac
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