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1、Michael J.MauboussinChief Investment StrategistLegg Mason Capital ManagementLong Term Investing in a Short Term World.Its as Easy as PIELong Term Investing in a Short Term World2PIEPIEsychologyncentivesxpectationsNotLong Term Investing in a Short Term World3Agenda1.The Barriers1.Psychology2.Incentiv
2、es2.The Evidence1.Corporations2.Investors/Investment managers3.The SolutionuSocial contextuA look at winnersuTime arbitrageLong Term Investing in a Short Term World4Barriers to Long Term ThinkingPhenomenonEffectAvailability biasAccounting versus economic focusRecency biasBetting on what has workedSt
3、ressCreates a short-term focusAgent/principal shiftAgency costsIncentivesPsychologyLong Term Investing in a Short Term World5CorporationsSource:Brian J.Hall and Jeffrey B.Liebman,“Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?”NBER Working Paper 6213,October 1997;“2004 CEO Compensation Survey and Trends,”Wa
4、ll Street Journal/Mercer Human Resource Consulting,May 2005;LMCM estimates.19852005CEO Compensation1995Tied to stock market43%Tied to stock market 1%Tied to stock market60%Long Term Investing in a Short Term World6Corporations“Earnings are in a class by themselves”Four reasons:Investors need a simpl
5、e metric to summarize performanceEPS gets the broadest media distribution and coverageFocus on EPS makes the analysts job easierAnalysts evaluate a firms progress based on making EPSSource:John R.Graham,Campbell R.Harvey,and Shiva Rajgopal,“The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,
6、”NBER Working Paper,March 2004.Long Term Investing in a Short Term World7uFirms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a short-run earnings targetuThe preference for smooth earnings is so strong that 78%of surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earn
7、ings!EPS ObsessionSource:John R.Graham,Campbell R.Harvey,and Shiva Rajgopal,“The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,”NBER Working Paper,March 2004.Long Term Investing in a Short Term World8InvestorsFrom Principals to AgentsIndividual investorsFinancial institutions19502000Source:
8、John Bogle,“The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,”Speech:60th Anniversary Conference of the Financial Analyst Journal,February 10,2005.Direct stock holdingsIndividual investorsFinancial institutions1970Individual investorsFinancial institutionsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World9Investmen
9、t ManagementProfessionBusiness Deliver superior results Generate sales Long term Asset gathering Contrarian Return for company,not shareholders PatientSource:Charles D.Ellis,“Will Business Success Spoil the Investment Management Profession?”The Journal of Portfolio Management,Spring 2001.Long Term I
10、nvesting in a Short Term World10uNumber of funds versus relative returns(1994-2003)Investment ManagementSource:Fidelity Investments.Data presented in John C.Bogle,“The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,”Financial Analyst Journal,November/December 2005.Shading highlights firms that manage fifteen
11、 or fewer fundsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World11Investment ManagementuOwnership structure versus relative returns(1994-2003)Source:Fidelity Investments.Data presented in John C.Bogle,“The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,”Financial Analyst Journal,November/December 2005.Shading repres
12、ents private firmsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World12InvestorsuBad timing exerts a huge tollAverage Investor ReturnSource:John C.Bogle,“The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,”Financial Analyst Journal,November/December 2005.12.8%10.0%6.3%Average Annual Return(1983-2003)S&P 500 Index Fund
13、Average Fund ReturnLong Term Investing in a Short Term World13InvestorsuBad timingchasing what has been hotSource:John C.Bogle,“Statement of John C.Bogle to the United States Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee,”available at Bogle Financial Markets Research Center.Long Term Investing in a Short
14、 Term World14Investors“At Cape Cod Barber Shop,Slumping Stocks Clip Buzz”“Tech-Stock Chit-Chat Enriches Many Cape Cod Locals”199520002005“All they ever say is,Buy,buy,buy,all the way down from$100 a share to bankruptcy.”NASDAQ“I dont think anything could shake my confidence in this market.even if we
15、 do go down 30%,well just come right back.”March 13,2000July 8,2002Long Term Investing in a Short Term World15InvestorsAll StylesSmall Cap ValueSmall Cap GrowthMid Cap ValueMid Cap GrowthLarge Cap ValueLarge Cap GrowthNote:Data from 1979-2002.Source:Evergreen Capital Management,LLC.“An Asset Allocat
16、ion Strategy for the Intelligent Investor.”Mutual Fund Flows and Subsequent 2-Year Avg Return versus S&P 500(%)High outflows,low valuationsHigh inflows,high valuations-4.9-8.4+1.4-2.1-9.5-5.8-6.7+17.8+8.7+1.7+14.5+10.3+6.5+4.2Long Term Investing in a Short Term World16uBad timingInvestorsLast 5 year
17、 annual gainRydex WeightingS&P 500 Weighting EnergyPrecious MetalsTechnologyFinancialsOverweightUnderweight10.7%18.7%31.2%22.6%9.8%0.4%-5.9%2.8%15.1%4.8%2.9%21.6%Source:Bloomberg and S&P.Performance Data as of 5/26/06Rydex Data as of 5/26/06S&P Data as of 5/30/06Long Term Investing in a Short Term W
18、orld17uIn it for the short(er)termInvestorsSource:John Bogle,“The Mutual Fund Industry 60 Years Later:For Better or Worse?”,Financial Analyst Journal,January/February 2005.Long Term Investing in a Short Term World18uHolding periods are shrinkingInvestment ManagersSource:Bogle Financial Markets Resea
19、rch Center.2006Long Term Investing in a Short Term World19EvidenceuThe market is actually long-term orientedTakes many years of value-creating cash flows to justify todays priceInvestors make short-term bets on long-term outcomesShort-termism creates costsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World20S
20、olutionuMinimize agency costsuIncentives(business)create a very suboptimal social contextuFundamental attribution errorLong Term Investing in a Short Term World21SolutionuThe prison experiment(1971)“Situational variables can exert powerful influences over human behavior,more so than we recognize or
21、acknowledge.”Philip ZimbardoStanford UniversitySource:www.prisonexp.org.Used by permission.Long Term Investing in a Short Term World22Who Succeeds?uPortfolio turnoveruPortfolio concentrationuInvestment styleuGeographic locationSource:Michael J.Mauboussin,More Than You Know:Finding Financial Wisdom i
22、n Unconventional Places(New York:Columbia University Press,2006),17-19.Long Term Investing in a Short Term World23Time Arbitrage-ExpectationsSource:Michael J.Mauboussin,“Capital Ideas Revisited-Part 2,”Mauboussin on Strategy,May 20,2005.20 Trials100 TrialsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World24T
23、ime Arbitrage-ExpectationsuTime arbitrageUnderstand expectationsFocus on signalLong term growth,ROICLong Term Investing in a Short Term World25ConclusionsuCompanies,investors,and investment managers behave suboptimallyuPsychology and incentives explain much of this poor behavioruUnderstand the natur
24、e of investing,and carefully consider expectationsLong Term Investing in a Short Term World26The views expressed in this commentary reflect those of Legg Mason Capital Management(LMCM)as of the date of this commentary.These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions,
25、and LMCM disclaims any responsibility to update such views.These views may not be relied upon as investment advice and,because investment decisions for clients of LMCM are based on numerous factors,may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of the firm.The information provid
26、ed in this commentary should not be considered a recommendation by LMCM or any of its affiliates to purchase or sell any security.To the extent specific securities are mentioned in the commentary,they have been selected by the author on an objective basis to illustrate views expressed in the comment
27、ary.If specific securities are mentioned,they do not represent all of the securities purchased,sold or recommended for clients of LMCM and it should not be assumed that investments in such securities have been or will be profitable.There is no assurance that any security mentioned in the commentary has ever been,or will in the future be,recommended to clients of LMCM.Employees of LMCM and its affiliates may own securities referenced herein.Michael J.MauboussinChief Investment StrategistLegg Mason Capital ManagementLong Term Investing in a Short Term World.Its as Easy as PIE