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1、 Dividend policy 作者：Eugene F.Brigham.Joel F.Houston 刊物：Fundamentals of financial，2004，（8）:23-25.Abstract Dividend policy p lays an important role in business decision-ma king in the stock is the companys core financial issues.Thus the dividend distribution policy has been the companys stakeholders s
2、hares are closely watched.On the basis of the text of the introduction and dividend policy basic types of traditional and modern theories of dividend policy elaborate on,focusing on the status of the dividend distribution policy of listed companies,the dividend policy choice should consider factors
3、were analyzed,and deal with the problems raised corresponding constructive comments.Keywords:Dividend theory;dividend distribution;policy recommendations 1.Introduction Profitable companies regularly face three important questions:(1)How much of its free cash flow should it pass on to shareholders?(
4、2)Should it provide this cash to shareholders by raising the dividend or by repurchasing stock?(3)Should it maintain a stable,consistent payment policy,or should it let the payments vary as conditions change?When deciding how much cash to distribute to shareholders,finance manager must keep in mind
5、that the firms objective is to maximize shareholder value.Consequently,the target pay rate ratiodefine as the percentage of net income to be paid out as cash dividendsshould be based in large part on investors preference for dividends versus capital gains:do investors prefer(1)to have the firm distr
6、ibute income as cash dividends or(2)to have it either repurchase stock or else plow the earnings back into the business,both of which should result in capital gains?This preference can be considered in terms of the constant growth stock valuation model:gDS1 If the company increases the payout ration
7、,the raises1D.This increase in the numerator,taken alone,would cause the stock price to rise.However,if1Dis raised,then less money will be available for reinvestment,that will cause the expected growth rate to decline,and that will tend to lower the stocks price.Thus,any change in payout policy will
8、 have two opposing effects.Therefore,the firms optimal dividend policy must strike a balance between current dividends and future growth so to maximize the stock price.In-1-this section,we examine three theories of investor preference:(1)the dividend irrelevance theory,(2)the bird-in-the-hand theory
9、,and(3)the tax preference theory.2.dividend theory DIVIDEND IRRELEVANCE THEORY It has been argued that dividend policy has no effect on either the price of a firms stock or its cost of capital.If dividend policy has no significant effects,then it would be irrelevance.The principal proponents of divi
10、dend irrelevance theory are Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani(MM).They argued that the firms is determined only by its basic earning power and its business risk.In other words,MM argued that the value of firm depends only on the income produced by its assets,not on how this income is split between
11、 dividends and retained earnings.To understand MMs argument that dividend policy is irrelevance,recognize that any shareholder can in theory construct his or her own dividend policy.If investors could buy and sell shares and thus create their own dividend policy without incurring costs,then the firm
12、s dividend policy would truly be irrelevant.Note,though,that investors who want additional dividends must incur brokerage cost to sell shares,and investors who do not want dividends must first pay taxes on the unwanted dividends and then incur brokerage cost to purchase shares with the after-tax div
13、idends.Since taxes and brokerage costs certainly exist,dividend policy may well be relevant.In developing their dividend theory,MM made a number of assumptions especially the absence of taxes and brokerage costs.Obviously,tax and brokerage costs do exist,so the MM irrelevance theory may not be true.
14、However,MM argued that all economic theories are based on simplifying assumptions,and that the validity of a theory must be judged by empirical test,not by the realism of its assumptions.BIRD-IN-THE-HAND THEORY The principal conclusions of MMs dividend irrelevance theory is that dividend policy does
15、 not affect the required rate of return on equity,Ks.This conclusion has been hotly debated in the academic circles.In particular,Myron Gordon and John Lintner argued that Ks decreases as the dividend payout is increase because investor are less certain of receiving the capital gains which are suppo
16、sed to result from retaining earnings than they are of receiving dividend payments MM disagreed.They argued that Ks independent of dividend policy,which implies that investors are indifferent between D1/P0 and g and,hence,between dividends and capital gains.MM called the Gordon-Lintner argument the
17、bird-in-the-hand fallacy because,in MMs view,most investors plan to reinvest their dividends in the stock of the-2-same or similar firms,and,in any event,the riskiness of the firms cash flows to investors in the long run is determined by the riskiness of operating cash flows,not by dividend payout p
18、olicy.TAX PREFERENCE THEORY There are three tax-related reasons for thinking that investors might prefer a low dividend payout to a high payout:(1)Recall from Chapter II that long-term capital gains are taxed at a rate of 20 percent,whereas dividend income is taxed at effective rates which go up to
19、39.6 percent.Therefore,wealthy investors might prefer to have companies retain and plow earnings back into the business.Earnings growth would presumably lead to stock prices increases,and thus low-taxed capital gains would be substituted for higher-taxed dividends.(2)Taxes are not paid on the gains
20、until a stock is sold.Due to time value effects,a dollar of taxes paid in the future has a lower effective cost than a dollar paid today.(3)If a stock is held by someone until he or she dies,no capital gains tax is due at all-the beneficiaries who receive the stock can use the stocks value on the de
21、ath day as their cost basis and thus completely escape the capital gains tax.Because of these tax advantages,investors may prefer to have companies retain most of their earnings.IF so,investors would be willing to pay more for low-payout companies than for otherwise similar high-payout companies.The
22、re three theories offer contradictory advice to corporate managers,so which,if any,should we believe?The most logical way to proceed is to test the theories empirically.Many such tests have been conducted,but their results have been unclear.There are two reasons for this(1)For a valid statistical te
23、st,things other than dividend policy must be held constant;that is,the sample companies must differ only in their dividend policies,and(2)we must be able to measure with a high degree of accuracy each firms cost of equity.Neither of these two conditions holds:We cannot find a set of publicly owned f
24、irms that differ only in their dividend policies,nor can we obtain precise estimates of the cost of equity.Therefore,no one can establish a clear relationship between dividend policy and the cost of equity.Investors in the aggregate cannot be seen to uniformly prefer either higher or lower dividends
25、.Nevertheless,individual investors do have strong preferences.Some prefer high dividends,while others prefer all capital gains.These differences among in dividends help explain why it is difficult to reach any definitive conclusions regarding the optimal dividend payout.Even so,both evidence and log
26、ic suggest that investors prefer firms that follow a stable,predictable dividend policy.-3-3.the relevant recommendations Because we discuss how dividend policy is set in practice,we must examine two other theoretical issues that could affect our view toward dividend policy:(1)the information conten
27、t,or signaling,hypothesis and(2)The clientele effects.MM argued that investors reactions to change in dividend policy do not necessarily show that investors prefer dividends to retained earnings.Rather,they argued that price change following dividend actions simply indicate that there is an importan
28、t information,or signaling,content in dividend announcements.The clientele effects to the extent that stockholders can switch,a firm can change from one dividend payout policy to another and then let stockholders who do not like the new policy sell to other investors who do.However,frequent switchin
29、g would be inefficient because of(1)brokerage costs,(2)the likelihood that stockholders who are selling will have to pay capital gains taxes,and(3)a possible shortage of investors who like the firms newly adopted dividend policy.Thus,management should be hesitant to change its dividend policy,becaus
30、e a change might cause current stockholders to sell their stock,forcing the stock price down.Such a price decline might be temporary,but it might also be permanent if few new investors are attracted by the new dividend policy,then the stock price would remain depressed.Of course,the new policy might
31、 attract an even larger clientele than the firm had before,in which case the stock price would rise.In many ways,our discussion of dividend policy parallels our discussion of capital structure:we presented the relevant theories and issues,and we listed some additional factors that influence dividend
32、 policy,but we did not come up with any hard-and-fast guidelines that manager can follow.It should be apparent from our discussion that dividend policy decisions are exercises in informed judgment,not decisions that can be based on precise mathematical model.In practice,dividend policy is not an ind
33、ependent decision the dividend decisions is made jointly with capital structure and capital budgeting decisions.The underlying reason for this joint decisions process is asymmetric information,which influences managerial actions in two ways:1,In general,managers do not want to issue new common stock
34、.First,new common stock involves issuance cost-commissions,fees,and so on-and those costs can be avoided by using retained earnings to finance the firms equity needs.Also,asymmetric information causes investors to view common stock issues as negative signals and thus lowers expectations regarding th
35、e firms future prospects.The end result is that the announcement of a new stock issue usually leads to a decrease in the stock prices.-4-Considering the total costs involved,including both issuance and asymmetric information costs,managers strongly prefer to use retained earnings as their primary so
36、urce of new equity.2,Dividend changes provide signal about managers beliefs as to their firms future prospects,Thus,dividend reductions,Or worse yet,omissions,generally have a significant negative effect on a firms stock price.Since managers recognize this,they try to set dollar dividends low enough
37、 so that there is only a remote chance that the dividend will have to be reduce in the future.Of course,unexpectedly large dividend increases can be used to provide positive signals.the actual payout ratio in any.The dividend decision is made during the planning process,so there is uncertainty about
38、 future investment opportunities and operating cash flows.Thus,the actual payout ratio in any year will probably be above or below the firms long-range target.However,the dollar dividend should be maintained,or increase as planned policy simply cannot be maintained.A steady or increasing steam of di
39、vidends over the long run signals that the firms financial condition is under control.Further,investors uncertain is decreased by stable dividend,so a steady dividend stream reduces the negative effect of a stock issue,should one become absolutely necessary.In general,firms with superior investment
40、opportunities should set lower payouts,hence retain more earnings,than firms with poor investment opportunities.The degree of uncertainty also influences the decision.If there is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecasts of free cash flows,which are defined here as the firms operating cash flows
41、minus mandatory equity investments,then it is best to be conservative and to set a lower current dollar dividend.Also,firms with postponable investment opportunities can afford to set a higher dollar dividend,because in times of stress investments can be postponed for a year or two,thus increasing t
42、he cash available for dividends.Finally,firms whose cost of capital is largely unaffected by change in the debt ratio can also afford to set a higher payout ratio,because they can,in times of stress,more easily issue additional debt to maintain the capital budgeting program without having to cut div
43、idends or issue stock.Firms have only one opportunity to set the opportunity payment from scratch.Therefore,todays dividend decisions are constrained by policies that were set in the past,hence setting a policy for the next five years necessarily begins with a review of the current situation.Althoug
44、h we have outlined a rational process for managers to use when setting their firms dividend policies,dividend policy still remains one of the most judgmental decisions that firms must make.For this reason,dividend policy is always set by the board of directors the financial staff analyzes the situat
45、ion and makes a recommendation,but the-5-board makes the final decision.股利政策 1 引言 盈利的公司常常面临 三个重要问题：（1）自由现金流量 有多少应该分配给股东？（2）怎么样把 这些现金分配给股东，是通过增发股利还是回购本公司股票？（3）需要保持 一个不变的股利支付政策，还是让股利支付随着各年度的情况不同而不同？当财务经理 决定应该付多少现金给股东时，他一定要记住，公司的目标是股东价值最大化，目标支付率作为现金股利支付的净收益占总收益的百分比，应该是根据投资者更偏好的股利还是资本利得来决定。投资者是偏好（1）以现金股
46、利形式分配收益；还是偏好（2）回购股票或者吧收益重新投资到公司？这两者都会导致资本利得。这方面的偏好可以通个稳定增产的股票价值评估模型来考虑：gDS1 如果公司 增加了股利支付率 就增加1D,单独分子可能会导致股票价格上升。然而,如果1D提高了,就会减少钱用在再投资，会引起预期 增长率下降,那就有可能降低股票的价格。因此,股利政策有任何改变将有两个相反的结果。所以,公司最优股利政策是必须在现在行 使的股利和未 来增长之间取得一个平衡，使股票价格达到最高。在这一部分文献中，我们将分析评价了投资者偏好的三个理论：（1）股利无关理论；（2）“一鸟在手”理论；（3）税收偏好理论。2 股利理论 2.1
47、股利无关理论 有很多人认为，股利分配政策对公司股票价值和资本成本都是没有任何影响。如果股利政策没有显著的影响，那这个股利政策就是不相关。股利无关理论的主要提出的人是默顿 H 米勒和佛朗哥 莫迪哥 莱尼。公司价值只是由于基本盈利能力和经营风险所决定。换一句话说，MM 理论作者认为，公司价值只是由其资产所创造的收益来决定的，而不是由于股利和留存收益之间是如何分割来决定的。要如何理解 MM 理论关于股利政策无关的观点，我们需要认识到，一个股东在理论上都是能构建自己的股利政策。但是如果投资者能够随意的购买或者卖出股票，他-6-就能够实现他所期望的鼓励政策，而不用支付额外的费用。因此，鼓励政策是不相关的
48、。要注意的是，那些想要得到额外股东在卖掉股票是必须支付一定的费用；而那些不想要额外股利的股东不想为那部分鼓 励交税而且用税后股利购买额外的股份还得支付交易费用。既然税收和交易费用的存在是必然的，那么鼓励政策也很可能是相关的。在建立股利理论时，MM 理论作了一系列的假设，尤其是关于不存在税收和交易费用的假设。显然，税收和交易费用是确实存在的，因此 MM 股利无关理论可能是不正确的。但是 MM 理论提出，所有的理 论都是基于简化了的假设，理论的正确与否必须经过实践的检验，而不是其假设的真实性。2.2“一鸟在手”理论 MM 股利无关理论的主要结论是：鼓励政策不影响要求的权益收益率 Ks。该观点在学术
49、界引起广泛争论。迈伦 林特纳就认为，随着股利支付的增加，Ks 会下降，因为虽然可以假定留存收益会带来 相应的资本利得，但是与得到支付的股利相比，投资者获得收益的确定性要小。MM 理论对这有反对意见。他们认为，Ks 与股利政策是没有关系的，这就说投资者对于 D1P0和资本利得是没有偏好。MM 理论认为，高顿和林特纳为“一鸟在手”理论的假象 所迷惑，因为在 MM 理论看来，大部分投资者都打算将其股利所得再投资于同一家或类似的企业。而且在任何情况下，对于投资者 来说，从长远来看，公司现金流量的风险是由该公司的经营现金流量风险来决定的，却不是由股利政策决定的。2.3 税收偏好理论 从所得税方 面来考虑
50、，投资者可能会偏好较低的股 利支付率，这样说的理由有三个。（1）第二章 说到长期资本利得要缴纳 20%的所得税，而股利收益 的税率却高达 39.6%。所以，有钱的投资者可能会更加偏好于公司留存收益而且将其投资于公司业务，而 不是将收益用于发放股利。股利收益增长会导致股价上涨，从而较低税负的资本利得会替代较高税负的股利。（2）资本利得直到股票被卖掉以后 才需要支付所得税。由于资金时间价值的作用，未来所支付的一美元的所得税比现在支付的一美元的所得税的价值更加低。（3）如果某人持有股票直到死亡，那就根本不会有资本利得税。接受股票 受益人可以把股票原持有人去世那天的股票价值作为其成 本基础，从而可以完