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1、Chapter TwoCHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsA PowerPointTutorialTo Accompany MACROECONOMICS,6th.ed.N.Gregory Mankiw1Chapter TwoGross Domestic Product(GDP)is the dollar value of all final goods and services produced within an economy in a given period of time.The consumer price index(CPI)measures t
2、he level of prices.The unemployment rate tells us the fraction of workers who are unemployed.2Chapter TwoTwo ways of viewing GDPTotal income of everyone in the economyTotal expenditure on the economys output of goods and servicesHouseholdsFirmsIncome$LaborGoodsExpenditure$For the economy as a whole,
3、income must equal expenditure.GDP measures the flow of dollars in the economy.Income,Expenditure,And the Circular Flow3Chapter Two1)To compute the total value of different goods and services,the national income accounts use market prices.Thus,if$0.50$1.00GDP=(Price of apples Quantity of apples)+(Pri
4、ce of oranges Quantity of oranges)=($0.50 4)+($1.00 3)GDP=$5.002)Used goods are not included in the calculation of GDP.3)The treatment of inventories depends on if the goods are stored orif they spoil.If the goods are stored,their value is included in GDP.If they spoil,GDP remains unchanged.When the
5、 goods are finally soldout of inventory,they are considered used goods(and are not counted).4Chapter Two4)Intermediate goods are not counted in GDP only the value offinal goods.Reason:the value of intermediate goods is already included in the market price.Value added of a firm equals the value of th
6、e firms output less the value of the intermediate goodsthe firm purchases.5)Some goods are not sold in the marketplace and therefore donthave market prices.We must use their imputed value as an estimateof their value.For example,home ownership and government services.5Chapter TwoThe value of final g
7、oods and services measured at current prices is called nominal GDP.It can change over time,either because there is a change in the amount(real value)of goods and services or a change in the prices of those goods and services.Hence,nominal GDP Y=P y,where P is the price level and y is real outputand
8、remember we use output and GDP interchangeably.Real GDP or,y=YP is the value of goods and services measured using a constant set of prices.This distinction between real and nominal can also be applied to other monetary values,like wages.Nominal(or money)wages can be denoted by W and decomposed into
9、a real value(w)and a price variable(P).Hence,W=nominal wage=P w w=real wage=w/PThis conversion from nominal to real units allows us to eliminate the problems created by having a measuring stick(dollar value)that essentially changes length over time,as the price level changes.6Chapter TwoLets see how
10、 real GDP is computed in our apple and orange economy.For example,if we wanted to compare output in 2006 and output in 2007,we would obtain base-year prices,such as 2006 prices.Real GDP in 2006 would be:(2006 Price of Apples 2006 Quantity of Apples)+(2006 Price of Oranges 2006 Quantity of Oranges).R
11、eal GDP in 2007 would be:(2006 Price of Apples 2007 Quantity of Apples)+(2006 Price of Oranges 2007 Quantity of Oranges).Real GDP in 2008 would be:(2006 Price of Apples 2008 Quantity of Apples)+(2006 Price of Oranges 2008 Quantity of Oranges).Note that 2006 prices are used to compute real GDP for al
12、l three years.Because prices are held constant from year to year,real GDP varies only when the quantities vary.7Chapter TwoNominal GDP measures the current dollar value of the output of the economy.Real GDP measures output valued at constant prices.The GDP deflator,also called the implicit price def
13、lator for GDP,measures the price of output relative to its price in the base year.Itreflects whats happening to the overall level of prices in the economy.GDP Deflator=Nominal GDP Real GDPTHE IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GDPTHE IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GDP8Chapter TwoIn some cases,it is misleading
14、 to use base-year prices that prevailed 10 or 20 years ago(i.e.,computers and college).In 1995,the Bureau of Economic Analysis decided to use chain-weighted measures of real GDP.The base year changes continuously over time.This new chain-weighted measure is better than the more traditional measure b
15、ecause it ensures that prices will not be too out of date.Average prices in 2006and 2007 are used to measurereal growth from 2006 to 2007.Average prices in 2007 and 2008are used to measure real growth from2007 to 2008,and so on.These growthrates are united to form a chain that isused to compare outp
16、ut between any twodates.9Chapter TwoGovernmentpurchases of goodsand servicesY=C+I+G+NXTotal demandfor domestic output(GDP)is composed ofConsumptionspending byhouseholdsInvestmentspending bybusinesses andhouseholdsNet exportsor net foreigndemandThis is the called the national income accounts identity
17、.10Chapter TwoTo see how the alternative measures of income relate to one another,we start with GDP and add or subtract various quantities.To obtain gross national product(GNP),we add receipts of factorincome(wages,profit,and rent)from the rest of the world andsubtract payments of factor income to t
18、he rest of the world.GNP=GDP+Factor Payments from Abroad-Factor Payments to AbroadWhereas GDP measures the total income produced domestically,GNPmeasures the total income earned by nationals(residents of a nation).To obtain net national product(NNP),we subtract the depreciation ofcapitalthe amount o
19、f the economys stock of plants,equipment,andresidential structures that wears out during the year:NNP=GNP DepreciationNational Income=NNP Indirect Business Taxes.11Chapter TwoNational income measures how much everyone in the economy has earned.The national income accounts divide national income into
20、 five components,Compensation of employees.The wages and fringe benefits earned by workers.Proprietors income.The income of noncorporate businesses,such as small farms,mom-and-pop stores,and law partnerships.Rental income.The income that landlords receive,including the imputed rent that homeowners“p
21、ay to themselves,less expenses,such as depreciation.Corporate profits.The income of corporations after payments to their workers and creditors.Net interest.The interest domestic businesses pay minus the interest they receive,plus interest earned from foreigners.12Chapter TwoPersonal Income=National
22、Income Corporate Profits Social Insurance Contributions Net Interest +Dividends +Government Transfers to Individuals +Personal Interest Income.Disposable Personal Income=Personal Income Personal Tax and Nontax Payments.13Chapter TwoThe Consumer Price Index(CPI)turns the prices of many goods and serv
23、ices into a single index measuring the overall level of prices.The Bureau of Labor Statistics weighs different items by computing the price of a basket of goods and services produced by a typical customer.The CPI is the price of this basket of goods relative to the price of the same basket in some b
24、ase year.14Chapter TwoLets see how the CPI would be computed in ourapple and orange economy.For example,suppose that the typical consumer buys 5 apples and 2 oranges every month.Then the basket of goods consists of 5 apples and 2 oranges,and the CPI is:CPI=(5 Current Price of Apples)+(2 Current Pric
25、e of Oranges)(5 2006 Price of Apples)+(2 2006 Price of Oranges)In this CPI calculation,2006 is the base year.The index tells how much it costs to buy 5 apples and 2 oranges in the current year relative to how much it cost to buy the same basket of fruit in 2006.15Chapter TwoThe GDP deflator measures
26、 the prices of all goods produced,whereas the CPI measures prices of only the goods and services bought by consumers.Thus,an increase in the price of goods bought only by firms or the government will show up in the GDP deflator,but not in the CPI.Also,another difference is that the GDP deflator incl
27、udes only those goods and services produced domestically.Imported goods are not a part of GDP and therefore dont show up in the GDP deflator.The final difference is the way the two aggregate the prices in the economy.The CPI assigns fixed weights to the prices of different goods,whereas the GDP defl
28、ator assigns changing weights.16Chapter TwoThe labor force is defined as the sum of the employed and unemployed,and the unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.The labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population who are in the lab
29、or force.Unemployment Rate=Number of Unemployed Labor Force 100Labor-Force Participation Rate=Labor Force Adult Population 10017Chapter TwoThe Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)computes these statistics for theoverall population and for groups within the population:menand women,whites and blacks,teenag
30、ers,and prime-age workers.Labor Force=147.4 millionUnemployment rate=5.5%Labor-Force Participation Rate=66.0%The BureauLaborStatisticsLabor Force=147.4 millionUnemployment rate=5.5%Labor Force Participation Rate=66.0%18Chapter Two The BLS conducts two surveys of labor market,and therefore produces t
31、wo measures of total employment.The establishment survey estimates the number of workers firms have on their payrolls.The household survey estimates the number of people who say they are working.Two measures of employment are not necessarily identical,although positively correlated.The reason?The su
32、rveys measure different things and the surveys in general,are imperfect.Some economists believe that the establishment survey is more accurate because it has a larger sample size.Bottom line:all economic statistics are imperfect!19Chapter TwoNational income accounts identity Consumption Investment G
33、overnment purchasesNet exports Labor force Labor-force participation rateGross domestic product(GDP)Consumer Price Index(CPI)Unemployment rate National income accounting Stocks and flows Value added Imputed value Nominal versus real GDP GDP deflator20Chapter Two2.Value added by each person is the va
34、lue of the good produced minus the amount the person paid for the materials necessary to make the good.Therefore,the value added by the farmer is$1.00($1 0=$1).The value added by the miller is$2:she sells the flour to the baker for$3 but paid$1 for the flour.The value added by the baker is$3:she sel
35、ls the bread to the engineer for$6 but paid the miller$3 for the flour.GDP is thetotal value added,or$1+$2+$3=$6.Note that GDP equals the value of the final good(the bread).21Chapter Two3.When a woman marries her butler,GDP falls by the amount of the butlers salary.This happens because measured tota
36、l income,and therefore measured GDP,falls by the amount of the butlers loss in salary.If GDP truly measured the value of all goods and services,then the marriage would not affect GDP since the total amount of economic activity is unchanged.Actual GDP,however,is an imperfect measure of economic activ
37、ity because the value of some goods and services is left out.Once the butlers work becomes part of his household chores,his services are no longer counted in GDP.As this example illustrates,GDP does not include the value of any output produced in the home.Similarly,GDP does not include other goods a
38、nd services,such as the imputed rent on durable goods(e.g.,cars and refrigerators)and any illegal trade.22Chapter Two4.a.government exportsd.consumptione.investment23Chapter Two8.a.Real GDP falls because Disney does not produce any services while it is closed.This corresponds to a decrease in econom
39、ic well-being because the income of workersand shareholders of Disney falls(the income side of the national accounts),and peoples consumption of Disney falls(the expenditure side of the national accounts).b.Real GDP rises because the original capital and labor in farm production now produce more whe
40、at.This corresponds to an increase in the economic well-being of society,since people can now consume more wheat.(If people do not want to consumemore wheat,then farmers and farmland can be shifted to producing other goods that society values.)c.Real GDP falls because with fewer workers on the job,f
41、irms produce less.This accurately reflects a fall in economic well-being.d.Real GDP falls because the firms that lay off workers produce less.This decreases economic well-being because workers incomes fall(the income side),and there are fewer goods for people to buy(the expenditure side).24Chapter T
42、woe.Real GDP is likely to fall,as firms shift toward production methods that produce fewer goods but emit less pollution.Economic well-being,however,may rise.The economy now produces less measured output but more clean air;clean air is not traded in markets and,thus,does not show up in measured GDP,
43、but is nevertheless a good that people value.f.Real GDP rises because the high-school students go from an activity in which they are not producing market goods and services to one in which they are.Economic well-being,however,may decrease.In ideal national accounts,attending school would show up as
44、investment because it presumably increases the future productivity of the worker.Actual national accounts do not measure this type of investment.Note also that future GDP may be lower than it would be if the students stayed in school,since the future work force will be less educated.g.Measured real
45、GDP falls because fathers spend less time producing market goods and services.The actual production of goods and services need not have fallen,however.Measured production(what the fathers are paid to do)falls,but unmeasured production of child-rearing services rises.25Chapter Two9.As Senator Robert
46、Kennedy pointed out,GDP is an imperfect measure of economic performance or well-being.In addition to the left-out items that Kennedy cited,GDP also ignores the imputed rent on durable goods such as cars,refrigerators,and lawnmowers;many services and products produced as part of household activity,su
47、ch as cooking and cleaning;and the value of goods produced and sold in illegal activities,such as the drugtrade.These imperfections in the measurement of GDP do not necessarily reduce its usefulness.As long as these measurement problems stay constant over time,then GDP is useful in comparing economic activity from year to year.Moreover,a large GDP allows us to afford better medical care for our children,newer books for their education,and more toys for their play.26Chapter Two27