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1、-16 个经营指标防止掉坑 摘要：财务指标并不是做判断时的决定性因素，但确实是重要的投资标的质量比照指标。比方说，O2O 公司在一定的时期里可能确实需要通过烧钱来扩大市场份额，但到了一定的阶段之后以收入为代表的财务指标会说明很多问题。本文原文由 A16Z 多位投资人集体创作。A16Z 是世界知名的顶级风投公司，Skype,Facebook,Instagram,Twitter,Foursquare,Pinterest,Airbnb,Zynga,GitHub,Jawbone,Lyft,Oculus,Slack,Zenefit 等等都是其被投企业。A16Z 的合伙人之一 Andreessen Hor
2、owitz 是畅销书?创业维艰?一书的作者。英文原文有些地方的表述并不准确，所以我们的中文讲解未必与其一致。本文里的很多指标适用于 SaaS 类的 2B 效劳公司。有一句话说的好：You cant manage what you dont measure.我们看到各种各样的初创企业，似乎大家都拿到了钱而且活的不错。但，真实情况是怎样的.其实需要答复的问题是：如何衡量一家初创企业的真实情况.一篇文章很难说清楚这件事，我们只能粗略说一下用来衡量真实情况可能会用到的工具。具体运用需要区分行业、运营模式、业务开展阶段并结合未来战略布局才有价值。本文分为三局部：A业务与财务指标；-B产品与用户指标；C指
3、标的展示形式 在使用它们时：首先，使用者需要知道应该选择哪个指标，这需要根据业务的实质来进展选择；其次，使用者要明白所使用的指标背后所代表的真实情况是什么，这包括过去、现在和未来的情况；最后，使用者根据指标所反映的真实情况决定进一步的投资、战略或者运营动作。这里，“使用者根本上指的是潜在投资人和创业公司的管理层。We have the privilege of meeting with thousands of entrepreneurs every year,and in the course of those discussions are presented with all kinds
4、 of numbers,measures,and metrics that illustrate the promise and health of a particular pany.Sometimes,however,the metrics may not be the best gauge of whats actually happening in the business,or people may use different definitions of the same metric in a way that makes it hard to understand the he
5、alth of the business.So,while some of this may be obvious to many of you who live and breathe these metrics all day long,we piled a list of the most mon-or confusing ones.Where appropriate,we tried to add some notes on why investors focus on those metrics.Ultimately,though,good metrics arent about r
6、aising money from VCs theyre about running the business in a way where founders know how and why certain things are working(or not)and can address or adjust accordingly.第一局部：业务与财务指标 对于多数早期创业公司而言，财务指标并不是做判断时的决定性因素，但确实是重要的投资标的质量比照指标。比方说，O2O 公司在一定的时期里可能确实需要通过烧钱来扩大市场份额，但到了一定的阶段之后以收入为代表的财务指标会说明很多问题。很多人并不
7、清楚业务数字和财务数字之间的差异。两者的区别非常清楚，不可混淆。财务数字是在会计的语言体系下对公司过去业务成果进展的描述。要对公司的实际情况加以了解，财务和业务数字的互相印证是不可缺少的。第一、签约合同金额 vs.收入Bookings vs.Revenue 我们可以把 booking 理解为签约记录。在一个会计期间 通常为一年里跟谁签了销售合同，合同的签约金额是多大，公司会拿个小本本记录book 下来。在把这些签约金额累加在一起之后就构成了本年度公司记录的新签约合同金额bookings。它并不属于会计概念，这个数字过于粗糙，对于分析公司的真实情况通常没有太大的借鉴意义。-收入Revenue则是
8、按照会计准则对合同金额进展确认并计量的会计要素。按照会计语言的定义，收入是指企业在日常活动中所形成的、会导致所有者权益增加的、非所有者投入资本的经济利益的总流入。一般而言，收入只有在经济利益很可能流入从而导致企业资产增加或者负债减少，且经济利益的流入额能够可靠计量时才能予以确认。之所以这样规定是为了满足财务报表的慎重性原则，尽量减少夸张公司业务优势对投资者形成的决策误导。收入是企业经济利益流入的主要入口。看收入的绝对值和增长率是投资人最初要看的数字之一。这个指标本身有其涵，但在一开场只能起到一个过滤器的作用，对于变现模式清晰的公司，如果收入表现不达标是很少会有人会继续分析的。另外，稍微普及一下
9、，会计要素一共有 6 个，分别是利润表里的收入、费用、利润和资产负债表里的资产、负责和所有者权益。会计准则对于这些要素确实认和计量方式都有明确的规定。A mon mistake is to use bookings and revenue interchangeably,but they arent the same thing.Bookings is the value of a contract between the pany and the customer.It reflects a contractual obligation on the part of the customer
10、 to pay the pany.-Revenue is recognized when the service is actually provided or ratably over the life of the subscription agreement.How and when revenue is recognized is governed by GAAP.Letters of intent and verbal agreements are neither revenue nor bookings.第二、经常性收入 vs.总收入Recurring Revenue vs.Tot
11、al Revenue Recurring 的字面意思是“重复出现的，我们可以将其理解为由日常业务产生的经常性收入。这个财务指标衡量的是一家公司的常规业务创造经济利益流入的能力。在投资人进展财务尽职调查时，非经常性收入通常都是会被剔除在外的。典型的非经常性收入包括资产处置、资产盘盈、补贴收入、税收优惠、有失公允的关联交易等等。A16Z 的投资人在此提出了三个经常性收入指标：1ARR年度经常性收入是做业务分析时最根本的经常性收入指标，它是名副其实的“主营业务收入。2ARR per customer单个用户 ARR衡量的是从单个用户身上获取的年度经常性收入。分析时可以对用户区分类别，看不同类别单个用
12、户ARR 同比/环比变动情况。这可以判断对单个用户进展 upselling向上销售，在根底销售工程上销售升级版产品或 cross-selling穿插销售，提供与被销售工程相关的其他销售工程的效果。-3MRR月度经常性收入是以月度为频率的经常性收入，它是对 SaaS公司进展业务分析时的重要指标。需要注意的地方有，不要把非经常性收入算进来；不要把合同金额当成收入。Investors more highly value panies where the majority of total revenue es from product revenue(vs.from services).Why?Se
13、rvices revenue is non-recurring,has much lower margins,and is less scalable.Product revenue is the what you generate from the sale of the software or product itself.ARR(annual recurring revenue)is a measure of revenue ponents that are recurring in nature.It should e*clude one-time(non-recurring)fees
14、 and professional service fees.ARR per customer:Is this flat or growing?If you are up-selling or cross-selling your customers,then it should be growing,which is a positive indicator for a healthy business.MRR(monthly recurring revenue):Often,people will multiply one months all-in bookings by 12 to g
15、et to ARR.mon mistakes with this method include:(1)counting non-recurring fees such as hardware,setup,installation,professional services/consulting agreements;(2)counting bookings(see*1).第三、毛利润Gross Profit 毛利润=销售收入-销售本钱。-毛利润率衡量了主营业务在发生期间费用之前的销售获利水平。在确定毛利润的过程中，最重要的是需要把销售本钱的组成局部拎清楚。销售本钱所包含的本钱工程是和销售商品及
16、提供效劳直接相关的本钱工程。在看销售本钱组成时，需要注意的是公司在进展料工费的分配时是否符合会计上“制造本钱法的要求。通常，制造业的毛利率会偏低，而软件、快消品行业的毛利率保守的讲也至少在 60%以上。实际上，投资人在进展财务指标衡量时未必是严格按照会计规定进展工程调整的，行业惯例及其所反映的经济实质才是做报表调整背后的原因。While top-line bookings growth is super important,investors want to understand how profitable that revenue stream is.Gross profit provid
17、es that measure.Whats included in gross profit may vary by pany,but in general all costs associated with the manufacturing,delivery,and support of a product/service should be included.So be prepared to break down whats included in and e*cluded from that gross profit figure.第四、合同总价值 vs.年度合同价值Total Co
18、ntract Value(TCV)vs.Annual Contract Value(ACV)-合同总价值TCV，指的是一份商业合同的签约金额，无论合同的效劳期限是一个月、几个月或长于一年。年度合同价值ACV，指的是经过年化处理后的合同金额。通常而言，会以单个用户的平均 ACV 对销售能力和用户的承受度进展分析。这是 SaaS 业务的常用分析指标。需要指出的是，对 ACV 的分析不能离开下文提到的 CAC 获客本钱分析，这两者结合在一起才能看出业务的优劣。TCV(total contract value)is the total value of the contract,and can be
19、shorter or longer in duration.Make sure TCV also includes the value from one-time charges,professional service fees,and recurring charges.ACV(annual contract value),on the other hand,measures the value of the contract over a 12-month period.Questions to ask about ACV:What is the size?Are you getting
20、 a few hundred dollars per month from your customers,or are you able to close large deals?Of course,this depends on the market you are targeting(SMB vs.mid-market vs.enterprise).Is it growing(and especially not shrinking)?If its growing,it means customers are paying you more on average for your prod
21、uct over time.That implies either your product is-fundamentally doing more(adding features and capabilities)to warrant that increase,or is delivering so much value customers(improved functionality over alternatives)that they are willing to pay more for it.第五、获客本钱/CAC(Customer Acquisition Cost)(Blend
22、ed vs.Paid,Organic vs.Inorganic)获客本钱CAC这一项在原文中是第八条，由于它的重要性，我们将其提前至第五条。CAC 是获取单个新用户所需花费的全部本钱。其计算公式为：CAC=销售费用总额/期间新增用户数。在确定 CAC 时，总体上要遵循慎重性原则：首先，需要遵循完整性原则把在经济实质上归属于获取新客户的所有费用都包括进来销售行为中的打折、返点都属于此类。其次，必须将来自不同渠道的新客户进展区分。来自不同渠道的用户所对应的 CAC 可能是不同的。另外，因为总会有一局部用户是自己找过来而不是通过你的市场投入吸引过来的，这一类用户不可以进入 CAC 计算公式的分母项。
23、所以，严格意义上的 CAC 是所谓的 paid CAC，即，通过付出市场费用而获取的用户所对应的 CAC。-把来自不同获客渠道的用户所对应的 ARR 和 paid CAC 进展比照可以看出特定类别用户的利润奉献度以及市场投入的可行性。另外，对特定市场渠道加大投入可能会引起该渠道 paid CAC 的变化，其变化情况和背后的原因可能非常重要。Customer acquisition cost or CAC should be the full cost of acquiring users,stated on a per user basis.Unfortunately,CAC metrics
24、e in all shapes and sizes.One mon problem with CAC metrics is failing to include all the costs incurred in user acquisition such as referral fees,credits,or discounts.Another mon problem is to calculate CAC as a“blended cost(including users acquired organically)rather than isolating users acquired t
25、hrough“paid marketing.While blended CAC total acquisition cost/total new customers acquired across all channels isnt wrong,it doesnt inform how well your paid campaigns are working and whether theyre profitable.This is why investors consider paid CAC total acquisition cost/new customers acquired thr
26、ough paid marketing to be more important than blended CAC in evaluating the viability of a business it informs whether a pany can scale up its user acquisition budget profitably.While an argument can be made in-some cases that paid acquisition contributes to organic acquisition,one would need to dem
27、onstrate proof of that effect to put weight on blended CAC.Many investors do like seeing both,however:the blended number as well as the CAC,broken out by paid/unpaid.We also like seeing the breakdown by dollars of paid customer acquisition channels:for e*ample,how much does a paying customer cost if
28、 they were acquired via Facebook?Counterintuitively,it turns out that costs typically go up as you try and reach a larger audience.So it might cost you$1 to acquire your first 1,000 users,$2 to acquire your ne*t 10,000,and$5 to$10 to acquire your ne*t 100,000.Thats why you cant afford to ignore the
29、metrics about volume of users acquired via each channel.第六、用户生命周期总价值/LTV(Life Time Value)严格来讲，LTV 的定义是：特定用户对公司奉献的未来所有期间净利润的现值。现值是一个财务管理上的概念，简单的讲，未来的钱没有现在的钱值钱，所以，折现就是要把未来经济利益的面值折算成为现在的价值。我们不在此向读者具体展示和说明 LTV 的计算公式，仅仅说明一下LTV 的用途以及需要注意的事项。-对于初创企业，LTV 的主要用途是用于衡量公司(特别是 SaaS 公司)市场支出的有效性并用以决定是否需要进入加速扩大市场支出的
30、阶段。理想而言，SaaS 公司 LTV/CAC 的经历比率数字应该大于 3。与 LTV 相关的因素主要有：ARPU平均单个用户收入、用户流失率其倒数为用户生命周期、效劳单个用户本钱、CAC获客本钱。这几个因素之间是相互影响的，它们的背后实质是公司行为和用户行为之间的互动结果。因此，在计算 LTV 时所使用的假设应该是基于业务实际情况进展的慎重且合理的推断。投资人和管理层的出发点在有些时候可能不同，投资人需要减少风险，创业者需要加大投入推进业务。这就造成大家所使用的假设可能不同，假设的合理性与否就要看各自的职业判断能力了。实际上，计算 LTV 并不需要得到特别准确的数字，只要平衡慎重性和合理性原
31、则对各个参数进展假设得到有价值的决策结果即可。Lifetime value is the present value of the future net profit from the customer over the duration of the relationship.It helps determine the long-term value of the customer and how much net value you generate per customer after accounting for customer acquisition costs(CAC).A m
32、on mistake is to estimate the LTV as a present value of revenue or even gross margin of the customer instead of-calculating it as net profit of the customer over the life of the relationship.Reminder,heres a way to calculate LTV:Revenue per customer(per month)=average order value multiplied by the n
33、umber of orders.Contribution margin per customer(per month)=revenue from customer minus variable costs associated with a customer.Variable costs include selling,administrative and any operational costs associated with serving the customer.Avg.life span of customer(in months)=1/by your monthly churn.
34、LTV=Contribution margin from customer multiplied by the average lifespan of customer.Note,if you have only few months of data,the conservative way to measure LTV is to look at historical value to date.Rather than predicting average life span and estimating how the retention curves might look,we pref
35、er to measure 12 month and 24 month LTV.Another important calculation here is LTV as it contributes to margin.This is important because a revenue or gross margin LTV-suggests a higher upper limit on what you can spend on customer acquisition.Contribution Margin LTV to CAC ratio is also a good measur
36、e to determine CAC payback and manage your advertising and marketing spend accordingly.第七、总成交额 vs.收入Gross Merchandise Value(GMV)vs.Revenue 这是非常传统的电商和交易平台指标，在撮合交易平台上适用。GMV 通常是针对交易平台而言的，它衡量的是特定期间里平台上发生的交易流水总额。它说明了交易平台对流量的吸纳能力。交易平台的收入包括其在 GMV 里的提成takes、广告收入及其他增值效劳收费。In marketplace businesses,these are
37、frequently used interchangeably.But GMV does not equal revenue!GMV(gross merchandise volume)is the total sales dollar volume of merchandise transacting through the marketplace in a specific period.Its the real top line,what the consumer side of the marketplace is spending.It is a useful measure of t
38、he size of the marketplace and can be useful as a“current run rate measure based on annualizing the most recent month or quarter.-Revenue is the portion of GMV that the marketplace“takes.Revenue consists of the various fees that the marketplace gets for providing its services;most typically these ar
39、e transaction fees based on GMV successfully transacted on the marketplace,but can also include ad revenue,sponsorships,etc.These fees are usually a fraction of GMV.第八、未实现收益预收账款以及开票额Unearned or Deferred Revenue and Billings 这是一个会计确认的问题。根据会计准则，公司不得把尚未履行的效劳所产生的经济流入确认为收入工程。在形式上，预收账款工程记录的就是用户对已签约但尚未履行效劳
40、的合同提前向公司支付的款项。因此公司财务必须把这局部提前收到的款项作为对客户的负债记录在资产负债表上。当公司履行了预收账款所对应的效劳后，公司才可以在当月把这局部被作为负债的“未实现收益从资产负债表转到利润表里确认为收入即所谓“已实现收益。Billing 的意思是开收据，在公司在收到客户预付款项时需要开具收据并记录，当相应的款项符合收入确认条件时向客户开具发票。Billing 是财务流程中的一个动作，其本身不属于财务报告概念。-当期 Billing 这个数字所代表的是公司从用户那里收到的全部现金金额。它反映了公司对用户的议价能力、押款能力，如果 Billing 的增长势头好，可能说明公司的业务
41、进入强势增长阶段。In a SaaS business,this is the cash you collect at the time of the booking in advance of when the revenues will actually be realized.As weve shared previously,SaaS panies only get to recognize revenue over the term of the deal as the service is delivered even if a customer signs a huge up-f
42、ront deal.So in most cases,that“booking goes onto the balance sheet in a liability line item called deferred revenue.(Because the balance sheet has to“balance,the corresponding entry on the assets side of the balance sheet is“cash if the customer pre-paid for the service or“accounts receivable if th
43、e pany e*pects to bill for and receive it in the future).As the pany starts to recognize revenue from the software as service,it reduces its deferred revenue balance and increases revenue:for a 24-month deal,as each month goes by deferred revenue drops by 1/24th and revenue increases by 1/24th.A goo
44、d pro*y to measure the growth and ultimately the health of a SaaS pany is to look at billings,which is calculated by taking the revenue in one quarter and adding the change in-deferred revenue from the prior quarter to the current quarter.If a SaaS pany is growing its bookings(whether through new bu
45、siness or upsells/renewals to e*isting customers),billings will increase.Billings is a much better forward-looking indicator of the health of a SaaS pany than simply looking at revenue because revenue understates the true value of the customer,which gets recognized ratably.But its also tricky becaus
46、e of the very nature of recurring revenue itself:A SaaS pany could show stable revenue for a long time just by working off its billings backlog which would make the business seem healthier than it truly is.This is something we therefore watch out for when evaluating the unit economics of such busine
47、sses.第二局部：产品与用户指标Product and Engagement Metrics 产品和用户指标的定义千差万别，对于指标的选取和定义标准对于做出正确的投资分析和运营决策至关重要。第九、活泼用户数Active Users 活泼用户是需要被加以定义的，原则上说，投资人一定会给一个慎重的评判标准来衡量什么样的用户才是“活泼的。这需要根据行业特征通过具体场景加以界定。Different panies have almost unlimited definitions for what“active means.Some charts dont even define what that-
48、activity is,while others include inadvertent activity such as having a high proportion of first-time users or accidental one-time users.Be clear on how you define“active.第十、环比增长率Month-on-month(MoM)growth 普通环比增长率受到短期因素的影响波动可能较大，其比照价值有限。因此，投资人会选择使用复合环比增长率CMGC作为环比数据的分析指标。CMGC=(当前月数字/根底月数字)(1/月份数目)-1 CM
49、GC 是一个复利概念，它把短期的剧烈波动因素去除掉，是对产品或者产业的增长潜力、变迁趋势进展评估的长期视角。常见的复合增长率是 CAGCpounded Annually Growth Rate，年复合增长率。对于高速增长的初创企业使用 CMGC 更加容易看出高速增长行业横向比照的业务增长趋势。这是一个 gauge标尺工具，看的是大致的水平在什么地方，并不要求非常精准。Often this measured as the simple average of monthly growth rates.But investors often prefer to measure it as CMGR(
50、pounded-Monthly Growth Rate)since CMGR measures the periodic growth,especially for a marketplace.Using CMGR CMGR=(Latest Month/First Month)(1/*of Months)-1 also helps you benchmark growth rates with other panies.This would otherwise be difficult to pare due to volatility and other factors.The CMGR w