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1、-1-Roland Berger&Partner GmbH International Management ConsultantsBarcelona Beijing Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Buenos Aires Delhi Detroit Dsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Kiev Kuala Lumpur LisbonLondon Madrid Milan Moscow Munich New York Paris Prague Riga Rome So Paulo Shanghai Stuttgart Tokyo Vi
2、enna ZurichHolderbank Management&Consulting Summary and results:Kick-off meeting Slag supply 2020Madrid,February 16,2000MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-2-Agenda1.Discuss objectives and project approach32.Set framework for top-down analysis 63.Develop approach for bottom-up study164.Define contact persons a
3、nd milestones23MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-3-1.Discuss objectives and project approachMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-4-The objective of this survey is to estimate on a long-term basis the worldwide slag volumes accessible to HMCMain topics1.How much blast furnace slag will be produced within 20 years?2.How w
4、ill technological innovation(downsizing,energetic/ecological quantum leaps)affect the metallurgical process mix?(iron,scrap,scrap substitutes)3.Which sea-side integrated steel plants will(still)be in operation and how much pig iron will they(then)produce?4.How much granulated slag will be available
5、at plants suitable for export?General remarksHMC should not be mentioned as as interested partyOther steel by-products(such as converter/EAF slag,internal circulation scrap,slurries,filter dust)should also be addressed MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-5-In view of the long-term nature of the survey,slag ava
6、ilability will be analyzed from 2 perspectivesApproach and main issuesTop-down assessmentBottom-up assessmentForecasting of steel outputAssessment of steel making technology trendsDetermination of feedstock availability and costAssessment of current/future plant viabilityReview of company/plant stra
7、tegic options/plansEstimation of most likely slag output volumesSlag supply2020 on a worldwide basis underscored by country case studies(#5)for selected plants only(#30)limited to sea-side locationsMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-6-2.Set framework for top-down analysisMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-7-The top-dow
8、n analysis will be based on own assessments as well as Roland Berger&Partners industry expertise and databasesSlag supply 2020 top-down analysisAssessment stepsIssues to be addressedInformation sourcesregional consumptionlocational advantages/disadvantagescapacity utilizationoutput levelscost effect
9、iveness:operational/capital costsenergy effectivenessexpected global production shareenvironmental impactraw materials:iron ore,scrap,coking coal,cokeenergy:gas,electricitySteel outputPublished informationDiscussion with steel associationsSteel making technology trendsPublished informationRoland Ber
10、ger&Partners databaseDiscussion with plantmakersFeedstock availabilityand costPublished informationRoland Berger&Partnersdatabase123MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-8-Worldwide consumption of finished steelm tonsAverage annual growth ratesCAGR in%Source:IISI;Hatch Associates;Roland Berger&Partners analysis1
11、)Taking the Asia crisis into accountA.Indust.countriesWest.EuropeUSA-CanadaJapanB.Rest of AsiaChinaSouth KoreaOthersC.CIS/East.EuropeCISEast.EuropeD.Other countriesCountry/regionModerate growth in GDPDeclining steel intensityRelatively high GDP growth rates Increasing steel intensityGradual recovery
12、 of national economiesIncreasing steel intensity,especially in Latin AmericaTrends19851995199520102.13.11.61.18.15.913.59.4-11.0-12.9-8.6-0.50.70.71.00.22.42.81.92.00.40.60.12.4DG4-MUC-0061-04521-01/01b-F.4+1.0%p.a.1985199520052010Western EuropeUSA-CanadaJapanRest of AsiaCIS/Eastern EuropeOthers5861
13、4511278212476265615612779268498176016013080301508981010796709715165+1.5%1)p.a.In the next decade,the worldwide consumption of finished steel is expected to increase by an annual 1.5%to 810 m tonsMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-9-Electric arc furnaces will gain importance and the demand for scrap and scrap
14、substitutes will increase by 46%Source:IISI;Hatch Associates;Iron Carbide Holding;Roland Berger&Partners analysis1)DRI,pig iron,iron carbideDG4-MUC-0061-04521-01/01b-F.5Worldwide crude steel productionm tonsWorldwide demand for scrap iron and scrap substitutes1)m tons1985199520052010180(25%)403(56%)
15、136(19%)719245(33%)433(58%)74(9%)752346(40%)501(58%)17(2%)864423(46%)497(54%)920EAFLDSM19851995200520101978170348266862737939890649446291553+46%EAFLDSMMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-10-Due to decreasing quantities of new scrap and own scrap arisings,the growing demand for metal can only be met by old scra
16、pSource:IISI;Hatch Associates;Iron Carbide Holding;Roland Berger&Partners analysisDG4-MUC-0061-04521-01/01b-F.6Supply of scrap and scrap substitutesm tonsTrends in production/availabilityAvailable(e.g.CIS),yet only cost-effective if marginal cost view is taken1985199520052010126811241153479383164317
17、37819423456104942032687012553Own scrap arisings(steel works)New scrap(metal-working)Old scrapDRI/HBIPig ironExtensible:probability of increasing use of HBI in the US/Asia as scrap additive(no contamination)is likelyLarge scrap resources in industrialized Western countries and Eastern EuropeGrowing d
18、egree of industrialization of NICs increases available capital scrap from 2000 onwardsRussian export duties may reduce availability on world marketsWorldwide own scrap arisings are decreasing due to process optimization(worldwide share of continuous casting 1988:54%;1997:81%)Availability of new scra
19、p is growing slightly(counter-trends:growing world economy vs.increasing output,e.g.tailored blanks in the automotive industry)MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-11-It has been estimated that until 2000 the installed DRI/HBI capacity would reach 80 mill.tonsNew DRI capacities and selected production sitesDRI
20、capacities worldwide(mill.t)Major new production sitesNisco-IranBritish Steel,Mobile/AL-USAComsigua,Puerto Ordaz VenezuelaGeorgetown,Birmingham/LOU USABHP,Port Hedland AustraliaIMEXA,Lazaro Cardenaz MexicoPosVen VenezuelaNippon Denro Ispat,Dolvi IndiaMineralogy-Western AustraliaAUSI,Pilbara Australi
21、aSource:Roland Berger&Partners analysis+41.3MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-12-Nevertheless,in the mid-1990s market analysts still expected a scrap bottleneck of 60 m tons per yearScrap balance 2010m tonsSource:WSDDemand for scrap ironCrude steel productionScrap bottleneckMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-13-Recent
22、ly developed processes aim at more diversified metallic/energetic burdens:ore fines in combination with gas or coalIron ore reduction processesMetallicburdenStatus quo of main DRI processes EnergyEstablishedprocessesRecentdevelopmentsMIDREXMarket leader,accounting for 65%of total DRI-production of 3
23、1 mill.tHYL IIIAccounts for 19%of total DRI-productionHYL I/IIAccounts for 8%of total DRI-productionIron CarbideOne 330 ktpy plant in Trinidad installed by Nucor in 1995(start-up problems)Circored500 ktpy plant under construction in Trinidad;joint venture of Lurgi,LTV and Cleveland Cliffs Corp.FiorO
24、nly one industrial-scale processing reducing fines(Sivensa,Venezuela)Finmet2 mtpy planzt under construction at BHP,Australia(improvement of Fior process)InmetcoPlant at Siam Strip,Thailand being comissionedFastmetPlant planned for 1998 in the USA(900 ktpy)CircoferPilot plant at Elred,SwedenLump ore/
25、pellets/sinterCoke/Coal NaturalgasCoalNaturalgasFinesBlast furnace,(SL/RN)MIDREXHYL I/II,IIICircoferInmetcoFastmetCircoredIron CarbideFiorCorexMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-14-Long-term sustainability can only be achieved through continuous innovationTechnological trends integrated millsCoking coalIron o
26、re-fines-lumpScrapCoke plantSinter unitPellet unitBlastfurnaceLD-converterDirect reductionElectric arcfurnaceSlab casterHot strip millCold rollingPickling line1452312345Smelting:COREXThin steel casting:CSP/ISPCombi-linesHot DRI charging:HYLSAMEXScrap preheating:FuchsRaw materialsSemi-fin.steelPrepar
27、ationHot metalCrude steelRolled steelMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-15-On-going structural change in the steel industry will strongly affect existing plants and companiesStrategic environment and challenges steel industryStructuralchanges insteel consumptionWide spectrum of customer needsRegional differen
28、ces in industrial structure and economic growth patternsDecreasingmarginsIncreasedenvironmentalconstraintsPersistent overcapacities in Western-and Eastern-EuropeIncreased international tradeUnbalanced raw material supplyFull recycling of materialsClean and safe operationsrestrictions on emissionswor
29、king conditionsValue-added chain extensionsraw material supplycontrol of distribution channelIncreased customer orientationuser economicsserviceInternationalizationContinuous technological improvementtrend towards larger unitsupgrade of existing plantsContinuous process improvementsefficiency/reliab
30、ilityproductivityqualityGlobalsteel 2020Stake-holder orientationcustomersemployeesownerssuppliersMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-16-3.Develop approach for bottom-up study MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-17-The bottom-up study will be an interactive process,taking views both from steel industry and steel plant mak
31、ers into accountSlag supply 2020 bottom-up studyAssessment stepsIssues to be addressedInformation sourcesraw material supplyavailable equipment/market mixproductivity/cost positionexpansion/downsizing planslocational advantages/disadvantagesslag strategy:granulation rate,supply/delivery arrangements
32、metallurgical process mixfeedstock structureprocess improvementsCurrent/future steel plant viability Personal interviewsBroker reportsPublished infoFinancial dataCompany/plant strategic options/plans Personal interviewsTelephone interviewsDiscussion with plantmakersMost likely slag output volumesPer
33、sonal interviewsTelephone interviewsPostal survey123MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-18-Each company/plant of interest will be evaluated on 5 different criteriaMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-19-Computation of indexesTentativeIndexFinancial SoundnessRange123Iron OutputLife Expectancy 123Slag outputInputsEBITDA(%of
34、 turnover)Market capitalization($/t)Broker recommendationExpected remaining lifetime of blast furnaces Likely necessary re-vampsExpected/anticipated newbuildingsCorporate strategyLocational advantagesCrude steel cost positionMetallurgical mixFeedstock strategySlag ratesGranulation rates10-1001)100-1
35、.0001.000-10.0001 2 3Strategic feasibility1 23InvestmentsEfficiency programs(%of turnover)Product rangePoor FairExcellentPoor FairExcellent20 years1)000 tons10-1001)100-1.0001.000-10.0001 2 3MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-20-The grouping of plants is based mainly on slag output and fit with Holderbanks st
36、rategic plansGroupApproach#of plantsMain topicsABCD5Remaining10-1515Personal interviewsTelephone interviewsNot to be consideredPostal surveyPlantViabilityXSlagoutputXXXStrategicplansXXTypical output(000 t)10001000-2000500-1000500MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-21-Approach choice templateBrazilChinaFranceJa
37、panSouth KoreaSpainUkraineCST,TubaraoBaoshan,PudongUsinor,DunkerqueNippon,KimitsuPosco,KwangyangAceralia,Aviles+GijonAsowstal,MariupolCountryPlant locationSlag volume 1996(m tpy)Established HB relationship(Y/N)3.871.091.302.580.651.222.211.360.841.512.811.582.39GroupAAAAABBBBBYNYNNNNNNYBBBFranceJapa
38、nGermanyUsinor,Fos-sur-MerStahlwerke,BremenNKK,FukuyamaRomaniaSidex GalatiNNYAustraliaBHP,Port KemblaItalyILP,TarantoTentativeCountryLocationSlag volume 1996(m tpy)Established HB relationship(Y/N)1.183.120.890.570.380.230.940.801.13N/A0.960.410.88GroupBBBCCCCCCC(Y)NNYYNN(Y)NNCCCNNNGermanyTKS,Schwelg
39、ernUKBrit.Steel,ScunthorpeUSABethlehem,Sp.PointSouth Africa Iscor,SaldanhaTaiwanChina Steel,Lin HaiNetherlandsHoogovens,IjmuidenTurkeyErdemir,Kdz.EregliBelgiumSidmar,GentArgentinaSiderar,San NicolasUkraineIlyich,MariupolSouth Korea Posco,PohangUKBrit.Steel,Port TalbotBBBCCCChinaBeitai,PingshanFinlan
40、dRautaruuki,RaaheMexicoSicartsa,Laz.CardenasUkraineZaporozhtal,SaporoshijeUkraineDzershinsker,Dneprod.ItalyLucchini,PiombinoBrazilCSN,New plant BChinaGuangzhou,Baihedong1.841.201.800.680.260.34N/ANNNNNNNMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-22-For selected countries the steel and slag will be scrutinized in furt
41、her detailChosen countriesJapanUkraineChinaBrazilIndiaMain aspectsImportance and outlook for steel sector(from regional/global perspective)Global share of major inputs:iron ore,coal,scrapRelative(cost)advantages of main plantsProfiles of main players(strengths&weaknesses)Likely share of global slag
42、volumes(current/future)Country case studiesMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-23-4.Define contact persons and milestonesMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-24-Work progress will be maintained through regular meetingsIssueTimeDateLocationParticipants1)1)HMC:Dr.Stefan Wolfensberger(SW),Benedikt A.Vonnegut(BV),Wolfgang Red
43、l(WR);Umar:Javier de Benito(JB),Roberto Schrmann(RS);RB&P:Thomas Kunze(TK),Petter Alfredson(PA)Scheduled meetingsMUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt-25-rb addressesARGENTINARoland Berger y Asociados S.A.International Management ConsultantsTte.Gral.J.D.Peron 346-Piso 51038 Buenos AiresPhone+54-11-43 42 14 98Fax
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