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1、巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第1414章章TheHistoryofU.S.andU.K.PublicDebtThe nominal quantity of interest-bearing debt and the ratio of this debt to nominal GDP2Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsThe Governments Budget ConstraintlGt+Vt=Tt+(Mt Mt1)/PtlThe real value of these inter
2、est payments,it1(Bgt1/Pt)adds to the governments expenditure or uses of funds on the left-hand side of the governments budget constraint.9Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsThe Governments Budget ConstraintlGt+Vt+it1(Bgt1/Pt)=Tt+(Bgt Bg t1)/Pt+(MtMt1)/Ptlreal purchases+re
3、al transfers +real interest payments =real taxes+real debt issue +real revenue from money creation10Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsWhen nominal money,Mt,and the price level,Pt,do not change over time,the governments budget constraint becomes.lGt+Vt+rt1Bgt1/P=Tt+(Bgt B
4、g t1)/P11Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsThe Budget Deficitlreal government saving =(Bgt Bgt1)/P12Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsThe Budget Deficitl(Bgt Bgt1)/P =Tt 【Gt+Vt+rt1Bgt1/P】lreal government saving =real taxes real government exp
5、enditure13Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsThe Budget Deficitlthe governments revenue exceeds its expenditure,and the government has a budget surplus.lthe government has a balanced budget,and the governments real saving is zero.14Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constrai
6、nts and Budget Deficits15Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsPublic Saving,Private Saving,and National Savinglreal household saving(economy-wide)=Kt Kt1+(Bgt Bgt1)/Plreal national saving=Kt Kt116Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsHouseholds mult
7、iyear budget constraintlC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+17Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget Deficitsmultiyear household budget constraint with government bondslC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+Bg0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/
8、P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+18Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalencelr0=r1=r2=r.lMt,and Pt,do not change over time.lReal transfers,Vt,are zero each year.lthe government has a given time path of purchases,Gt
9、19Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalencelGovernment Budget ConstraintGt+r Bgt1/P=Tt+(BgtBgt1)/Plthe government starts with Bg0/P=0.lIn year 1：G1=T1+Bg1/P20Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ri
10、cardian EquivalencelSuppose,to begin,that the government balances its budget each year.lThen in year1 G1=T1lContinuing on,if the government balances its budget every year,lBgt/P,=0 in every year t.21Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence
11、lnow the government runs a real budget deficit of one unit?lthe deficit must come from a cut in real taxes,T1,by one unit.lthe real deficit of one unit requires the government to issue one unit of real public debt at the end of year 1lBg1/P=1.22Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget
12、DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalencelAssume Bg2/P=Bg3/P=0.lG2+rBg1/P=T2+(Bg2Bg1)/PBg1/P=1 and Bg2/P=0G2+r=T2 1T2=G2+1+r23Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalenceldecrease in year 1s real taxes+present value of increase in year 2s
13、 taxes =1+(1+r)/(1+r)=1+1 =024Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsA Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalencelIf the government replaces a unit of real taxes with a unit of real budget deficit,households know that the present value of next years real taxes will rise by one unit
14、.Thus,the real budget deficit is the same as a real tax in terms of the overall present value of real taxes.This finding is the simplest version of the Ricardian equivalence theorem on the public debt.25Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsAnother Case of Ricardian Equivale
15、ncelG2+rBg1/P=T2+(Bg2Bg1)/PBg2/P=Bg1/P=1G2+r=T226Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsRicardian Equivalence More GenerallylC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+Bg0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+27Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constrain
16、ts and Budget DeficitsRicardian Equivalence More Generallylt=1:T1 decreases 1lt=2:T2 increases rlt=3:T3 increases rl we find again that the deficit-financed tax cut in year 1 has no income effects on households.28Macroeconomics Chapter 14Budget Constraints and Budget DeficitsRicardian Equivalence Mo
17、re GenerallylIf the time path of Gt is given(and if Vt=0),we can show that a higher Bg0/P requires the government to collect a correspondingly higher present value of real taxes,Tt,to finance the debt.lThis higher present value of real taxes exactly offsets the higher Bg0/P.Thus,we still have no inc
18、ome effects on households.29Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitWhat happens in the equilibrium business-cycle model when the government cuts year 1s real taxes,T1,and runs a budget deficit?Economists often refer to this type of change as a simulative fiscal policy.30Macroec
19、onomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitLump-Sum Taxeslthe cut in year 1s real taxes,T1,and the increases in future real taxes,Tt,all involve lump-sum taxes.no substitution effects on consumption and labor supply.lWe have found in our equilibrium business-cycle model that a deficit-fin
20、anced tax cut does not stimulate the economy.In particular,real GDP,Y,gross investment,I,and the real interest rate,r,do not change 31Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitLabor Income TaxeslThe fall in T1 is accompanied by a decline in(w)1.lThe changes in marginal income tax
21、rates,(w)1 and(w)2,affect the labor market in years 1 and 2.32Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit33Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit34Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitLabor Income TaxeslThe increase in(w)2 lowers labor
22、 supply in year 2.This decrease in labor supply leads,when the labor market clears,to a lower quantity of labor,(L2).The reduced labor input leads to a decrease in year 2s real GDP,Y2.35Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitLabor Income Taxesla budget deficit allows the govern
23、ment to change the timing of labor input and production.lA budget deficit that finances a cut in year 1s tax rate on labor income motivates a rearrangement of the time pattern of work and productiontoward the present(year 1)and away from the future(year 2).36Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects
24、 of a Budget DeficitAsset Income Taxeslchanges in the timing of asset-income tax rates cause changes in the timing of consumption,C,and investment,I.lThe general point is that,by running budget deficits or surpluses,the government can induce changes in the timing of various aspects of economic activ
25、ity:L,Y,C,and I.37Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitThe Timing of Taxes and Tax-Rate SmoothinglWe have found that budget deficits and surpluses allow the government to change the timing of tax rates.lHowever,it would not be a good idea for the government randomly to make t
26、ax rates high in some years and low in others.38Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitlThe public debt has typically been managed to maintain a pattern of reasonably stable tax rates over time.This behavior is called tax-rate smoothing.39Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effec
27、ts of a Budget DeficitStrategic Budget DeficitslThis view of the Reagan-Bush budget deficits after 1983 gave rise to a new theory called strategic budget deficits.lThe word“strategic”is used because the models involve political strategies analogous to those analyzed in game theory.40Macroeconomics C
28、hapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitlRicardian equivalence-a deficit-finance tax cut does not affect real GDP and other macroeconomic variables.lThe Standard View of a Budget Deficita deficit-financed tax cut makes households feel wealthier,consumption,C1,increases。41Macroeconomics Chapter
29、14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitThe Standard View of a Budget Deficitlyear 1s inputs of labor and capital services stay the same,and real GDP,Y1 does not change.lSince C1 increases,gross investment,I1,has to decline for given government purchases,G1.42Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects
30、of a Budget DeficitThe Standard View of a Budget DeficitlThese long-term negative effects on capital stock and real GDP are sometimes described as a burden of the public debt43Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitFinite lifetimeslThe decrease in the present value of real taxe
31、s for current generations coincides with an increase in the present value of real taxes for members of future generations.Individuals will be born with a liability for a portion of taxes to pay the interest and principal on the higher stock of real public debt.lThese people will not share in the ben
32、efits from the earlier tax cut.Present taxpayers would not feel wealthier if they counted fully the present value of the prospective taxes on descendants.44Macroeconomics Chapter 14Economic Effects of a Budget DeficitImperfect credit marketslWhen credit markets are imperfect,some households will cal
33、culate present values of future real taxes by using a real interest rate above the governments rate.45Macroeconomics Chapter 14Social SecurityRetirement benefits paid through social security programs are substantial in the United States and most other developed countries.Feldstein argues that these
34、public pension programs reduce saving and investment.46Macroeconomics Chapter 14Social SecuritySocial security is not a fully funded system.lworkers payments accumulate in a trust fund,which later provides for retirement benefits.pay-as-you-go system,in which benefits to elderly persons are financed
35、 by taxes on the currently young.47Macroeconomics Chapter 14Social Securityeconomic effects of social security in a pay-as-you-go system.lWhen a social security system starts or expands,elderly persons experience an increase in the present value of their social security benefits net of taxes.lThe in
36、crease in the present value of real transfers net of real taxes implies a positive income effect on the consumption of this group.48Macroeconomics Chapter 14Social Securityeconomic effects of social security in a pay-as-you-go system.lYoung persons face higher taxes,offset by the prospect of higher
37、retirement benefits.lthe fall in consumption by the currently young tends to be smaller in size than the increase for the currently old.lwe predict an increase in current aggregate consumption.Or,to put it another way,total private saving declines.49Macroeconomics Chapter 14Social SecurityThe declin
38、e in national saving leads in the short run to a decrease in investment and,in the long run,to a reduced stock of capital.50Macroeconomics Chapter 14Open-Market OperationsOpen-market operations.lAn open-market purchase occurs when the central bank,such as the Federal Reserve,buys bondstypically government bondswith newly created money.lan open-market purchase has the same effects as the unrealistic helicopter drop of money51Macroeconomics Chapter 14Open-Market Operations52Macroeconomics Chapter 14结束语结束语谢谢大家聆听！谢谢大家聆听！53