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1、U.S.TRAVEL AND TOURISM OUTLOOK AND TRENDSResearch,Idea&PromotionTIA Mission StatementTIA Mission StatementThe mission of the Travel Industry The mission of the Travel Industry Association of America is to represent the Association of America is to represent the whole of the U.S.travel industry to wh
2、ole of the U.S.travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.to and within the United States.Travel and Tourism-2003Travel and Tourism-2003Americas 3rd Largest Retail Sales IndustryAmericas 3rd Largest Retail Sales
3、Industry$555 billion total expenditures$555 billion total expenditures$95 billion in tax revenue for federal,state and local$95 billion in tax revenue for federal,state and local governmentsgovernmentsOne of Americas Largest EmployersOne of Americas Largest Employers Employs 7.2 million people direc
4、tly.Employs 7.2 million people directly.Tourism is 1st,2nd,or 3rd largest employer in 30 states Tourism is 1st,2nd,or 3rd largest employer in 30 states and the District of Columbiaand the District of Columbia$158.4 billion in travel-generated payroll$158.4 billion in travel-generated payrollSource:T
5、ravel Industry Association of America(TIA)Where We WereWhere We WereTumbling from the PeaksTumbling from the PeaksBetween 2000 and 2003Between 2000 and 2003 Domestic business travel down 15%Domestic business travel down 15%Domestic airline travel down 14%Domestic airline travel down 14%Overseas trav
6、el to the U.S.down 30%Overseas travel to the U.S.down 30%International Visitor Arrivals to U.S.International Visitor Arrivals to U.S.from Key Countriesfrom Key Countries 2003%Change Recovery to(in millions)2003/2000 2000 ExpectedCanada 12.7 -14%2007United Kingdom 3.9 -16 2006Japan 3.2 -37 Beyond 200
7、7Germany 1.2 -34 Beyond 2007France 0.7 -37 Beyond 2007Brazil 0.4 -53 Beyond 2007Argentina 0.2 -72 Beyond 2007 Source:Office of Travel and Tourism IndustriesBright SpotBright SpotDomestic Leisure TravelDomestic Leisure Travel Slow but steady growthSlow but steady growth Stay closer to homeStay closer
8、 to home Highway travelHighway travel Short getawaysShort getaways Visits to small towns,rural Visits to small towns,rural areasareas Economize Economize Travel Performance First Travel Performance First Three Quarters 2004 Three Quarters 2004 During Jan Sept,2004,domestic travel up nearly 3%During
9、Jan Sept,2004,domestic travel up nearly 3%Leisure travel up 2.0%,exceeded by 6.8%gain in business/convention Leisure travel up 2.0%,exceeded by 6.8%gain in business/convention traveltravelStrong gains in air and hotel volume over 2003Strong gains in air and hotel volume over 2003International travel
10、 to U.S.exceeding expectationsInternational travel to U.S.exceeding expectationsSource:Travel Industry Association of America Visitor Trends Occurring More Visitor Trends Occurring More in Past Year in Past Year Source:Travel Industry Association of AmericaPercent of TIA Members ReportingNTA Operato
11、rs Products NTA Operators Products Source:National Tour AssociationPercent of NTA OperatorsRV Travel StrongRV Travel Strong7.8%of all U.S.vehicle-owning households own an RV,up from 7.3%in 7.8%of all U.S.vehicle-owning households own an RV,up from 7.3%in 199719977.2 million RVs on the road,compared
12、to 6.4 million in 19977.2 million RVs on the road,compared to 6.4 million in 1997RV Shipments Up 14%in 2004RV Shipments Up 14%in 2004RV Rentals Up Nearly 33%in 2003 and 2004 CombinedRV Rentals Up Nearly 33%in 2003 and 2004 Combined6.4%of RV Rentals by International Visitors6.4%of RV Rentals by Inter
13、national VisitorsSource:Recreation Vehicle Industry AssociationNational Parks and Public LandsNational Parks and Public LandsNational Park Visitation up 4%through November 2004;National Park Visitation up 4%through November 2004;Sale of Park Passes up 8%Sale of Park Passes up 8%See Americas National
14、 Parks partnership with TIA,National Park See Americas National Parks partnership with TIA,National Park Service and National Park FoundationService and National Park FoundationTravel Policies Air Business TravelersTravel Policies Air Business Travelers 2004 and 2002 2004 and 2002Source:Travel Indus
15、try Association of America and National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Air Business TravelersAlternative Technologies Used By Alternative Technologies Used By Business Travelers in Past Year,2004Business Travelers in Past Year,2004Source:Travel Industry Association of America and National Bus
16、iness Travel AssociationPercent of Business TravelersEffectiveness and Efficiency of Technology Effectiveness and Efficiency of Technology to Replace Travel,2004 and 2002to Replace Travel,2004 and 2002Source:Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Ai
17、r Business Travelers Top Two BoxesAUTO TRAVEL AUTO TRAVEL PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCEU.S.auto travel up 2%through September 2004U.S.auto travel up 2%through September 2004Still holding up due to:Still holding up due to:Shifts from air,especially for short-distance tripsShifts from air,especially for shor
18、t-distance trips Closer-to-home travelCloser-to-home travel Increasing interest in family travelIncreasing interest in family travel Increased interest in RVsIncreased interest in RVsAirline TurbulenceAirline TurbulenceDomestic air travel up 5%over 2003,but still 10%below 2000.Domestic air travel up
19、 5%over 2003,but still 10%below 2000.International is up 14%over 2003,but better yet,up 5%over 2000.International is up 14%over 2003,but better yet,up 5%over 2000.Exchange rates make U.S.even more of a bargainExchange rates make U.S.even more of a bargainUS Air,United and ATA in bankruptcyUS Air,Uni
20、ted and ATA in bankruptcyAirline losses$8 billion in 2004;$23 billion between 2001-2003Airline losses$8 billion in 2004;$23 billion between 2001-2003U.S.Hotel Performance U.S.Hotel Performance Strengthens In 2004Strengthens In 2004Source:Smith Travel Research%Change over Prior YearChanges to Domesti
21、c Advertising and Changes to Domestic Advertising and Marketing ProgramsMarketing ProgramsSource:Travel Industry Association of AmericaAmong 90%of Members with Domestic Marketing ProgramsWhere are We Going?Where are We Going?Americans Economic Americans Economic Assessments Are MixedAssessments Are
22、Mixed41%now rate economic conditions as positive,up slightly41%now rate economic conditions as positive,up slightly48%say economy getting better vs.42%who say it is getting worse 48%say economy getting better vs.42%who say it is getting worse Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important pr
23、oblem facing Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important problem facing America now 30%vs.38%-40%in autumn of 2004America now 30%vs.38%-40%in autumn of 2004Only 33%says its a good time to“find a quality job”,vs.62%who say Only 33%says its a good time to“find a quality job”,vs.62%who say i
24、ts a bad time its a bad time Source:Gallup SurveysU.S.Leisure U.S.Leisure OutlookOutlookLeisure travel intentions remain strongLeisure travel intentions remain strongTrends of the last few years will continue but some return to more Trends of the last few years will continue but some return to more
25、normal patternsnormal patternsGrowth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel Growth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in other activities tooother
26、activities tooSpending up 4%in 2004 over 2003 Spending up 4%in 2004 over 2003 Domestic Leisure Travel Will Domestic Leisure Travel Will Continue to Grow SlowlyContinue to Grow SlowlyMillion of Person-TripsSource:Travel Industry Association of AmericaDomestic Business Travel Will Rise but Domestic Bu
27、siness Travel Will Rise but Still Below 2000 LevelsStill Below 2000 LevelsMillions of Person-TripsSource:TIA and Global InsightNote:Does not include combined business/leisure travelU.S.Hotel Performance Expected U.S.Hotel Performance Expected to Remain Healthy in 2005to Remain Healthy in 2005Source:
28、Smith Travel Research%Change over Prior YearForecasts for Growth in U.S.Forecasts for Growth in U.S.Domestic Travel,2005Domestic Travel,2005Total Domestic Person-TripsTotal Domestic Person-Trips2.0%2.0%LeisureLeisure1.7%1.7%BusinessBusiness3.6%3.6%AutoAuto2.0%2.0%AirAir2.0%2.0%Hotel Room Demand Hote
29、l Room Demand 3.0%3.0%Source:TIA,ATA,Smith Travel ResearchInternational Visits Expected International Visits Expected to Increase Again in 2005to Increase Again in 2005Arrivals in MillionsSource:Office of Travel and Tourism Industries(OTTI)Travel Expenditures Will Continue to Risep=preliminary;f=for
30、ecastBillionsSource:TIA;OTTIOnline Travel Planning Steady Online Travel Planning Steady and Booking Continues to Riseand Booking Continues to RiseSource:Travel Industry Association of AmericaMillionsHow We Sell and Distribute Travel How We Sell and Distribute Travel Changed ForeverChanged ForeverInt
31、ernet for leisure and businessInternet for leisure and businessPricing more transparent;consumer in controlPricing more transparent;consumer in controlEncourages late bookingsEncourages late bookingsIncreases competitionIncreases competitionOnline hotel sales soaringOnline hotel sales soaringWhats A
32、head?Long Term TrendsLong Term TrendsWho will be tomorrows travelers and what will they do?Who will be tomorrows travelers and what will they do?How will technology and changing work/leisure patterns affect the How will technology and changing work/leisure patterns affect the nature of travel planni
33、ng and travel itself?nature of travel planning and travel itself?How will we reach them?How will we reach them?What types of tourism are likely to grow?What types of tourism are likely to grow?Key Demographic TrendsKey Demographic TrendsAging of populationAging of populationChanges in householdsChan
34、ges in householdsRising educationRising educationGeographic shiftsGeographic shiftsCultural diversityCultural diversityInfluence of womenInfluence of womenGrowing niche marketsGrowing niche marketsPercent Change in Population by Age,2010/2000 and 2020/2000(Percent Change)Source:U.S.Bureau of the Cen
35、sus“Junior”Matures(Age 55-64)More Likely Than Other Travelers To Travel farther away from homeStay away from home longerInclude two or more destinations in one tripEngage in more activitiesTravel with only one other household member,likely their spouseSpend more per tripSource:TIAMaturity TrendsMatu
36、rity TrendsIncrease in adult-only travel partiesIncrease in adult-only travel partiesSlower growth in travelers looking for“traditional”family experiencesSlower growth in travelers looking for“traditional”family experiencesInterest in local heritage&culture increasesInterest in local heritage&cultur
37、e increasesMaturialismMaturialismImportant Reasons for U.S.Important Reasons for U.S.Family VacationsFamily VacationsSources:Better Homes&Gardens and Travel Industry Association of America(%of 2002 Family Vacationers)Family Togetherness87%Get Away from Stress74Rest and Relaxation71Visit Friends/Rela
38、tives62Excitement/New Experiences50Physical Activity43New Places/People43For Luxury/Feel Pampered25Top 10 Activities Among U.S.Domestic Travelers,20031.Shopping30%2.Social/Family Event273.Outdoor Recreation114.City/Urban Sightseeing105.Rural Sightseeing106.Beach Activities107.Historical Places/Museu
39、ms 88.Theme/Amusement Park 79.Gambling 710.National/State Parks 7Source:TIA81%of Travelers Included Cultural/Arts/Heritage Activities on Trips in Past YearSource:TIA and Smithsonian Magazine Cultural,Arts,Heritage or Historic Cultural,Arts,Heritage or Historic Activities Included on Trips in Past Ac
40、tivities Included on Trips in Past YearYear(%of U.S.Adults)(%of U.S.Adults)Source:TIA and Smithsonian Magazine More Older Women Living AloneMore Older Women Living AloneMillionsMenWomenSource:U.S.Bureau of the CensusMillennial Generation Great Millennial Generation Great Potential for the FuturePote
41、ntial for the FutureChildren of the BoomersChildren of the BoomersBorn between 1977 and 1994;10 27 years of age in 2004Born between 1977 and 1994;10 27 years of age in 200472 million,28%of population72 million,28%of population13%of those age 20 24 were born outside the U.S.13%of those age 20 24 were
42、 born outside the U.S.Millennial Generation Great Millennial Generation Great Potential for the FuturePotential for the FutureRacially and ethnically diverseRacially and ethnically diverseVery independent Very independent Feel powerfulFeel powerfulBut of those age 20 24,50%of men and 36%of women sti
43、ll live with But of those age 20 24,50%of men and 36%of women still live with or are dependent on parents or are dependent on parents Media-savvyMedia-savvyTechnology leaders Technology leaders Travel by Minority Groups Travel by Minority Groups IncreasingIncreasingHispanicsHispanics77.1 million 77.
44、1 million person-trips(8%of total)person-trips(8%of total)African-AmericansAfrican-Americans75.2 million 75.2 million person-trips(7%of total)person-trips(7%of total)Asian-AmericansAsian-Americans33.1 million 33.1 million(3%of total)(3%of total)Source:TIAEthnic Groups to Grow to 50%of Ethnic Groups
45、to Grow to 50%of Population by 2050Population by 2050%Distribution of PopulationSource:U.S.Bureau of the CensusHispanics will Increasingly DominateHispanics will Increasingly Dominate MillionsSource:U.S.Bureau of the CensusChanging Nature of Work and Leisure Changing Nature of Work and Leisure Blurr
46、ing of boundaries of space and time for work and leisureBlurring of boundaries of space and time for work and leisureDramatic growth in work flexibilityDramatic growth in work flexibilityReduced need to travel solely for business,but combined Reduced need to travel solely for business,but combined b
47、usiness/leisure and leisure travel will growbusiness/leisure and leisure travel will growBoth business and leisure travel more motivated by self-Both business and leisure travel more motivated by self-actualizationactualizationConsumer Trends Likely to BuildConsumer Trends Likely to BuildMore focus
48、on doing well while doing goodMore focus on doing well while doing goodGrowing interest in making contribution to societyGrowing interest in making contribution to societyCould stimulate rise in“Volun-tourism”Could stimulate rise in“Volun-tourism”Increasing emphasis on quality of life and lifestyle
49、enhancementIncreasing emphasis on quality of life and lifestyle enhancementRising emphasis on environment and sustainability Rising emphasis on environment and sustainability Consumer Trends Likely to BuildConsumer Trends Likely to BuildEducation more recognized and promoted as a lifelong goal to Ed
50、ucation more recognized and promoted as a lifelong goal to enhance self-actualization-personal bestenhance self-actualization-personal bestLeisure as learningLeisure as learning Types of Tourism Likely Types of Tourism Likely to Growto GrowVisit Friends/Relatives/Reunions/Intergenerational and Grand