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1、?!#$%?N?=?O M M R?ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVol.1,No.1May,2005Adv.Clim.Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9?=?=?=?!1673-1719(2005)01-0004-06?!#$%&(?!#$%&()*+?N?O?P?Q?R?S?S?T?Q?Q?=?U?V?NMI?=?O?N?!#?=NMMMUN?O=?!=?!#$?=NMMMUN?P=?!?!#$%?=?=PNMMNO?=Q=?!=?!#$%&()?=?=TPMMMM?R=?!?=NMMUTN?S=?!?=?=ONMMVP?T=?!=?
2、!#$%&?=?=ONMMMU?U=?!#$?=NMMMVN?V=?!?=?=RNMMMU?NM=?!#?=NMMUSM?=?!?!#$%&()*+,-./012)34?!#$%&(?!#$%&()*+,-./012?!?!#$%&?!?!#$%&()*+,-./0$123456!789:;?ABCI?!?!#$%&()*+,-?!#$%&()*+,-./(0123?!#$%&()*+,-.?!?!?!?!?!#mQSN=?!#N=?=?=?!?!#$%&(?)*?!#$%&(?!#$%&?!?!#$?!#$%?!#$%&?!#$%?!#$%&()*+,-?RM=?!#$%&()*?!#$%&
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4、!#$%&()*+,-./012?!?NVQTJ?!#$?!#$%&?!#$%&K=bJW=KK?!W?!#$%&(?!?!#$%&()*+?5Adv.Clim.Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9?!#$%&()*+?!#$%?!#$%&(#)*+,-./012?!#$O=?!#$OKN=?OMMM=?!=?OMMM=?!#$%&()*+?!#?!#$%&(?!?Q?!#$NJOMV=aI=RTMJTTV=aIVPMJNPNV=a=E?!#F?NVOMJNVVV=a?P?!#$ONMJRSV=a?TUMJVOV=a?NPOMJNVNV=a?!#$?!?MKR?NKM?!#$%N
5、KM?!#$%&?!#$%&(O?NN?!#$%&?NS?NV?!?!?!UM?NMM=?!#?OM?PM=?!#$O?Q=?!=?!#!$%&()*+,-./?!#$%&()*+,=?!?!?!#$%&()*+,OKO=?!#$%&=?!#?!$%&()*+,?!#$%&NVMRJOMMN?!#$?!#$?!#$%&()*MKUN?LNMM=?!#$%&()*+,?!#?$%&()?NUUMJOMMO?!#$%MKRU?LNMM=?!#$?!#$%&()?#*?!#?!#$%&()*+,-.$MKR?MKU?!#?!#$%&()OM?OM?QM?OM?UM?!#$?OM?OM?QM?!#?!
6、#$%?!#$%&()*?!#$%&=?!#$%&()*+,-./?OM?PM=?!#$?TM?!?!#$?!#$?OM?RM?TM?!?!#$OM?UM?VM?!?!?!#$%OM=?!#$%?!#$%&(?!#$=?!#$%&()*+,-./?!?!?#$%&()*+,-?!#$%&(?!#$%?!?!#$%&()*+,-?!#?!?!?!I=?!#?!TKR?OKO?OKP=?RM=?!=?RM=?!#$%&()*+?!#$%?!?MKU?LNM=?!RM=?!Q?!?!#?!#$%&?ENMB?NRBFLNM=?!#$%RM=?!#$RMB?TRBX?!#$%&()*+,-OKQ=?!
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8、Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9?=?=?=?!#$%?!#$?!#$?!#$%&=?!#$%&OM?VM?!#$?!PR?!#$%&(?!?!#?!#$%&()*+,-?!#$%?!#$%&?!?!#$%&(=?!#$?!#$%&RM=?!#I=?!?#!$%?!?!#$!%&()*+,?!?!#$%&?!(=?!#$?!#$%&?!?!#$%&()?!#$%&?!#$%&?!OM?TM?!?!#$%&?UM?!?!#$%&()*+,-=?!#$%&?!?!#$?!#$%?OM?UM?!#$%&?!#$%&()*+?!#?!#$%=?!#$%?!#$%&(?!#?$!%&(
9、)*+,-./0?!?!#$%&()*+,-.?!#$?!#$%&OM?UM?!#$%&?!#$%&()*?!#$%&?()*+,-./01?!#$%&P=?!#$%&=?!#$%&()*+,-./01?!?!#$%&(&)?!#$%&()*+,?!#?!#$%&I=?!?!#$%?!?!#$%&()*+,-./?TMB?SMB?!#$?PMB?!#$%&PKN=?!#$%&=?!#$%&()*+,-?OM?SM?TM?!#$%TR=QOT=O?RV=QNQ=O?PM=?!#?!#$%UMKUB?!#$%&?!#$%&()*+,-.?!?!#$%&()*+?!#$%&?!#$%&?(=NVTR
10、JOMMO?!#?!#$%&()?*+,-NOB?!#$OR=?NVTRJNVVS?!#$?!#?$O=?!#$%&()?PRKSB?!#$OM?SM?!?!#$%RM?UM=?RM=?!#?!#$%&()*+?!#$OKPB?!#!$%&(?!?!?!#=?OM?!?!#$%&()*?!#$I=?!OM?RM?SM?RVSKU=?SRTKN?P?OM?VM?QRRKP?P?RM=?!#$%?NOO?P?VM?!PMM?P?!#$%&()*?!#$%&?!#$%&=?RM=?!#$#%&(?!#$%&()*+,-./?!#$%&?!#$?!#$%&()*?!#$%&()*+,-./0123?!
11、#$%&?!#$?%&#?!#$%&?!#$%?!#$%?!RM=?!#$%&()*+,-./012?NP=MMM=O?!RMM?P?!#$%&()*?!#$%?!#$%&()*?!#?!#$%&?!?!?!?!#$%&TMB?!?!#$%&(?!?!#$%?QR?P?!#$%?!#$PPB?=?!#$%&()*+,?!?!#$%&()*+,-?!W?!#$%&(?!?!#$%&()*+?7Adv.Clim.Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9?NVQV?!#$RPQ?O?OMMM?VQKT?O?!#OM?RM?POV?O?!#$%&?OMM?O?OMMM?!#$SR?O?OM=
12、?!?!#$%QQB?PKQ?O?!#?PM=?!#$%?!?!?!#$%#&?!#?QMVN=O?!#NO=MOP=O?=?!#$%&?!#$%&?!#$SMB?!#$%&(?!#$%&(?!#$%?OMMM?!#$%&?!#RMB?NMMM?!?#$?!QMB?!#$%&NRB?NTB?!?UKSB?NRB?OM?TM?!UM?UKSB?!?#$%&(?O M?!#$%&?NSKRRB?!#$%#&SNB?!?!#ONKPB?!#$%&(?!=?!#$%&?!#$%&?!#$%&?!#OKTS?O?!#$%&()*+,-?RM?!?!#$%&?!#$%?!NVPM?O?!#?!#$%SKT
13、B?NVVRJOMMM?!#$%&(?RQV?O?!#RRQU=O?!#OM?SM?!#$%&(?RM=?!#$%&!()*?SM=?!#$%&OM?TM?!#$%&()#$%&*NRB?UM?!PMB?VM?!#RMB?ON?!#$%&(VMB?=?!#$%&()*+?!?!#!$%&()*+?,?!#$%&NTQKP?=O?!NUKOB?!#$%&()?!#?!#$%&()*+,?!?!#$%&(?!#$?!#$%&OM?RM?TM?!TM?!UM?!?UM?!VM?!?!#$%&?NRSM=OL?ONMM=OL?OQSM=OL?NVVQJNVVV?!#$%&()*+PQPS=OL?=?!
14、#$?!#$%&?()?=OM?VM?!#$%&PRS?=O?!#$PTKMB?!#$%&(NSR?=O?!#$%&()*+,?!?!#$%&()!*+$,?!?!#$OM?UM?!?!?!#$%&()*+,?-?!#$%&(=?!#$%PSPM?O?!#?QKUUB?!#$%VOMKVQ?=O?!#$%SKSOB?!?!?!?!#?!#$SVKMPB?!#$%&?!#$%&()*+,-./?!?!#$%&()*+,-.?OM?RM?UM?!#$%&()*?UM?!#$%&()*?!OM?RM?!#$%&OSM?=O?!#$%&()UM?!#$QMM?O?=?!#$%&?RM=?!#?!#$%
15、&()*+,-./0123?!#?!#$%&()*+,?!?!#$%&NMMM?!#$%&()*+,-?!?!#?!#$%&(&?!#?!#$%&?!#?!?#$%&()*+,-?!#$%&?!#$%?!#$%&()!PM?QM?!?!#$%&?!#?!#$%&()*?!#$%?SSB?!#?!?!?!#?$%&()*+,-./?!#$%?!#$%8OMMR?Adv.Clim.Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9?=?=?=?PKO=?!#$%&()*=?!#$%&()*+,&-./?OM?TM?!?!?#$%&?!#I=?!OM?UM?!#?NVVMJNVVV?!#$%&()*
16、+,?NNVKR?=?!#$%&?!SMMM=_m?!#$%&?()*+,?!#?!#$?!?!#$%?RM=?!#$%&()*?NKM?PKM=L?=?!#$%&()*+?!?NURR?!#?!#$TKR?OQKV=O?!#$%&NRMM=_m?!?!#$%&()*+NPKP=OL?!#QM=?!#$%&?!#?NSM?OSM=L?=?!#$?!#$%&()*?NTUMJNVVP?OMM=?!#$%?!#MKOS?LNMM=?NUVMJNVVM?NMM=?!#$%&?NVUM?!MKO?MKP?=RM?!?!#$?!#$%?!RMB?ONU?=O?!#$OKM?=O?!#$%OKT?PKQ?
17、=O?!#$%=?!#$%&()*?!#?!#?!QSB?!QVB?!QQB?!ONB?=?!#$%&?!#$%&(?!#$%&($)*+?!?#?!#$%&()*+,-.Q=?!#$%&(=?!#$%&%()*+,-./?!#$%&()*+NMM=?!?!#$%=ON?!#$%&()*+?!?!#$%&()*+,-./01)*?!#$%?!#$fm?!#$?!#$%&()*?fm=OMMM?!?!#$%&?xPz?!#$%&ON?!?!#$%&?!#$%&()?NVSNJNVVM?PM=?!?OMOM?!?!NKP?OKN?X=?OMPM?!#$%NKR?OKU?OMRM?OKP?PKP?O
18、NMM?!PKV?SKM?!?#$%&?!#$%&?!?!?OMOM?!?#$%&(OB?PB?OMRM?!?#$%&(RB?TB?OMTM?!?#$%&(TB?VB?!#$%&?!#$?!?!#$%&?!OMB?!#?!#$%!&()?!#$%&()*+,-?!?!#$%&?!#$%&?!#$%&OMB?!#$?!#$%&()*+?!?JNMB?=ONMM?!#$%&()NQB?NNB?NTB?!#$%?!?!#?NMB?ORB?!#$%&()*?!#$%&?!#$%&?!#$%&()*+?!#$%&()*+#,-./?!?!#$%&?!#$%?!#$%?!#$%&()*+,?!?!?!?!
19、?K=?!#$%&?!?!#$%&!(=xjzK=?!#OMMRK?=?K?!#$%&?!=xjzK=?W=?!OMMOKHoughton J T,Ding Y H,Griggs D G,et al.Climate Change 2001:TheScience Basis.Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change M.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2001.123?!
20、W?!#$%&(?!?!#$%&()*+?9Adv.Clim.Change Res.,2005,1(1):4-9Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China(I):Climate and environment changes in China and their projectionQIN Dahe 1,DING Yihui 2,SU Jilan 3,REN Jiawen 4,WANG Shaowu 5,WU Rongsheng 6,YANG Xiuqun 6,WANG Sumin 7,LIU Shiyin 4,DONG Gua
21、ngrong 4,LU Qi 8,HUANG Zhenguo 9,DU Bilan 10,LUO Yong 2(1 China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;2 National Climate Center,CMA,Beijing100081,China;3 Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310012,China;4 Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Env
22、ironmental and Engineering Research,CAS,Lanzhou Gansu730000,China;5 Beijing University,Beijing 100871,China;6 Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China;7 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210008,China;8 State ForestryAdministration,Beijing 100091,China;9 Guangzhou In
23、stitute of Geography,Guangzhou Guangdong 510008,China;10 State Oceanic Administration,Beijing 100860,China)Abstract:In recent 100 years,the global climate and environment have greatly changed,with the global warming asits main feature.These changes have exerted significant impacts on the climate and
24、 environment changes in China.More than 100 Chinese scientists in areas of climate change,environment,ecology,oceanography,economics andsocial sciences have assessed the climate and environment changes in China and their impact on natural ecosystemand socioeconomic sectors.On the basis of scientific
25、 assessment,response strategy to the adaptation and mitigationof climate change has been put forward.The present paper is the first part of this scientific assessment report,mainlydealing with the climate and environment changes.And the future projections of climate change have been provided.Key wor
26、ds:climate change;environment evolvement;future trend;China=?!#$%&?!?#?!#$%&()*+?!#?!#$%&?f=p=p=?fpp?OMMR?T?NU?OV?!#?!?!#$%&?!#$?R?T?!?#$%&(?!#$%&?!#?!?!#$%&()*+,-./,0?!#=?!#$%?!#$%&?!#?$%&()*+?!?!?!#$%&#()?!#$?!#$?!#?!#$%&()*+,fm?!#$%&()*?!#?!?!#$%&()$*+,-?!#$%&(=?!#$%&()*+,-./?N?!?#$%?&()O?!#$P?!#$%&#(?!Q?!#$%&(R?!#$%