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1、?31?8?Vol.31,No.82011?8?Systems Engineering Theory&PracticeAug.,2011?:1000-6788(2011)08-1600-08?:TV877?:A?1,?2,?3(1.?,?510006;2.?,?510275;3.?,?510641)?,?,?,?,?GIS?,?.?,?.?,?.?;?;?;?;?;?Fuzzy diagnosis of vulnerability to flood based onmaximum entropyZHANG Ling1,CHEN Xiao-hong2,WANG Zhao-li3(1.School
2、 of Geographical Sciences,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;2.Center for Water Resources and Environment Research,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;3.School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)Abstract With referen
3、ce to the characteristics of the sustainable system,flood mitigation is supposed tobe divided into three phases:flood control,disaster undertaking,recovery and reconstruction.Vulnerabilityis employed to describe the adaptability to flood of economic society and to reveal risk of flood disastermitiga
4、tion.By means of selecting dominating driving forces of withstanding capacity for flood,an indicatorsystem is presented and a fuzzy assessment model is developed based on maximum entropy.The weights ofassessment indicators in the model are obtained from the avail value reflected by the sample of inf
5、ormationentropy,through which the weight allocation is shown more reasonable.The application of the proposedmodel in lower reaches of Beijiang river demonstrates its feasibility and validness.Keywordsflood control;vulnerability;diagnosis;Geographic Information System;maximum entropy;fuzziness1?.?,?,
6、?.?,?,?.?,?.?1,?.?,?,?,?.?2.?,?,?,?.?,?,?34?:2010-05-03?:?(50839005,50909106,40801034);?(2010-K3-40);?(973?)(2010CB428405);?(2010B066)?:?(1974),?,?,?,?,E-mail:david .?8?,?:?1601?56?,?.?,?.?,?7,?8,?,?.?1,9,?,?10,?11?12,?13,?14?.?,?11,13,?,?.?,?GIS?,?,?.2?.?:?15.?,?,?;?,?;?,?.?.?.?,?,?.?,?,?.?,?.?:?;?
7、;?,?16.?,?,?,?.?16,?17,?.?,?.?,?,?,?.?,?,?;GDP?,?;?;?,?;?;?,?.?,?1.3?,?,?.?18,?,?.3.1?n,?m?,?c,?u?,?U?:U=ukjcn,c?k=1ukj=1,ukj 0,j=1,2,n,k=1,2,c(1)?ukj?j?k?.?.?,?.?U?Shannon?Hj?:Hj=?kukjlnukj(2)1602?31?NDVI?(0.097)?(0.047)?(0.033)?(0.151)?(0.032)1465?(0.028)?GDP(0.166)?(0.021)?(0.086)?(0.011)?(0.016)
8、?(0.042)?(0.039)?(0.027)?(0.101)?(0.049)?(0.056)?1?w1,w2,wm,?j?k?:d(xj,yk)=ukj?m?i=1wi|xj yk|?(3)?:xj=(x1j,x2j,xmj)T?m?j?,yk=(y1k,y2k,ymk)T?k?.?,?,?,?Shannon?.?:min?n?j=1c?k=1ukj?m?i=1wi|xj yk|?+1Bn?j=1c?k=1ukjlnukj?s.t.?ukj=1,ukj?0,j=1,2,n(4)?,B?,?.?,?(4)?:ukj=exp?Bm?i=1wi|xj yk|?c?k=1exp?Bm?i=1wi|
9、xj yk|?(5)3.2?.?.?,?,?.?i?Ei?:Ei=kn?j=1fij lnfij(6)?,k=1/lnn,fij=Pij/?Pij,?fij=0,?fij lnfij=0.?i?EWi?:EWi=(1 Ei)?m?Ei?(7)?.?AWi?:Wi=(AWi EWi)?(AWi EWi)(8)?1.?8?,?:?16033.3?,?,?.?19?,?.?,?7?,?,?1.?1?/%?59.50.3?56.80.4?52.30.5?50.40.6?48.70.7?48.00.8?45.20.9?.?,?,?,?.?,?6?,?,?2.?2?1.050-0?0.0892.4790?
10、0.2192.1570.3?0.4862.1200.5?0.9462.4090.8?-1?.?.?,?3.?3?00.10.30.50.7?00.20.40.60.8?00.30.50.70.9?00.40.60.814?.?,?.?,?,?15?,?.?.?,?,?,?ArcGIS?(natural breaks)?.?,?.?4.?17?,?9?(?5),?GDP?8?1604?31?,?ArcGIS?,?2.?4?/m931535316180485?15.0117.4994.4083.44000.865?0.30.40.60.70.81.0NDVI?0.550.370.280.2100.
11、13?/km17.7211.408.065.0900.24?/?km201.1283.5737.43612.62416.372?/%33.635.336.739.540.842.80?/%45.9246.7948.3949.2549.6150.46GDP?/?km200.2340.7151.4102.3603.023?/%1.3915.4433.7549.8053.8165.35?/?3362817914305171601739818528?00.10.30.50.81?/%20.1515.7511.277.660.120.28?/?0.441.653.625.346.4013.31?0.87
12、0.820.780.740.72?0.90.80.70.60.5?/%3.57.518.149.2811.5?5?/%?/%?/%?/?/%?/?/%?39.548.9233.741728620.1525.340.840.83.5?33.649.251.39185280.11813.310.870.93.5?35.348.2426.49167400.3436.420.870.93.5?37.946.7915.45181845.2326.380.870.93.5?39.149.1628.691715618.7989.060.820.711.5?36.245.9265.35184597.6865.
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