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1、本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用Robert FogelRobert Fogel s forecasting Chinese economy in 2040s forecasting Chinese economy in 2040精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用开展经济学开展经济学development economicsdevelopment economics讲课人：李实讲课人：李实本课程的结构本课程的结构1 111121314开展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变开展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变研究范畴开展的测度研究方法历史演
2、变2 2开展与增长理论开展与增长理论21增长与开展的差异22增长理论：Harrod-Dmar model;Solow model;convergence:unconditionaland conditional.23新增长理论24人口增长与经济开展25经济开展与人类开展3 33132333435开展与收入分配开展与收入分配收入分配的现实与理论收入决定机制与因素分析经济开展与收入差距经济增长与收入分配中国收入分配的变化趋势4 44142434445开展中国家中的贫困问题开展中国家中的贫困问题绝对贫困与相对贫困贫困线的设定贫困标准的选择：收入还是消费贫困的度量：贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距中国的
3、贫困状态5 5开展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本开展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用515253545556劳动剩余与两部门模型劳动力市场中工资决定机制劳动力市场中歧视问题中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究劳动力流动与城乡差距教育、健康与经济开展6 6土地与经济开展土地与经济开展61土地产权与租赁制度62土地租赁合同理论63土地产权制度理论7 771727374资本市场与经济开展资本市场与经济开展信贷市场的不完善性农村信贷市场的功能与开展非正规信贷市场资本市场的制度与信贷市场的开展8 881828384保险与开展保险与开展保险
4、的功能完善的保险模型保险的局限性：信息的不对称性保险的执行困难9 991929394国际贸易与经济开展国际贸易与经济开展国际贸易的根本理论比拟优势理论世界贸易格局贸易政策和开展战略1010制度与经济开展制度与经济开展101 新制度经济学对经济开展的启示102 政府与市场的作用103 经济改革与经济开展1111开展经济学的未来方向开展经济学的未来方向111 理论还是经验研究？112 中国经济开展的经验如何上升到一般的经济开展理论精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用1 1开展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变开展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1 研究对象DE
5、 是什么What is economic development?What is economic development?(1)(1)EconomicEconomic developmentdevelopment isis thethe developmentdevelopment ofof economiceconomic wealthwealth ofofcountries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants.countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabita
6、nts.(2)(2)TheThe processprocess wherebywhereby thethe realreal perper capitacapita incomeincome ofof a a countrycountryincreases over a long period of time,subject to the stipulations thatincreases over a long period of time,subject to the stipulations thatthethe numbernumber ofof peoplepeople below
7、below anan absoluteabsolute povertypoverty lineline doesdoes notnotincrease and that the distribution of income does not become moreincrease and that the distribution of income does not become moreunequal.unequal.(3)(3)EconomicEconomic developmentdevelopment isis a a meansmeans toto makemake massmas
8、s peoplepeople outout ofofpoverty.poverty.What development economics studies?What development economics studies?DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor(less developed)countries(Lewis,1984).Development Economics(DE)studies the economic transformation of developingcountries(Debraj R
9、ay,1998).The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty fordeveloping economies(Yujiro Hayami,2001).DE is about the big issues:how economies and societies grow and change(N.Stern,2001).Backward underdevelopment less developed countries poor countriesemergent countr
10、ies developing economies.精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用1.2 研究内容研究什么(1)理解现在世界各国开展的不平衡性。(2)理解开展中国家现在的问题需要理解兴旺国家的开展经验，具有比拟的意义。(3)对前人的开展理论要加以研究。(4)开展涉及到很多层面，1.3 开展的测度measurement of developmentGDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量开展程度的最好指标？它在国际比拟中的缺陷:开展中国家 GDP 低估的问题；PPP 方法来修正 GDP；人类开展指数 HDI的意义和应用。China ran
11、k of HDI in the world,1970-20211.4 研究方法(1)理论研究与经验研究theoretical and empirical approach(2)开展微观经济学与开展宏观经济学development microeconomics anddevelopment macroeconomics(3)纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用历史演变历史演变(1)古典经济学是当时的开展经济学(2)在 20 世纪 40 年代后期，现代开展经济学形成。Capital accumulation,as the nece
12、ssary requirement,was the central focusof the models.The Harrod-Domar equation,although originallyformulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy,wasapplied to estimate capital requirements in developing countries.Other early models of development strategy also featured capitalaccu
13、mulation:Rostows stages of growth,1.2.3.4.5.Traditional societyPreconditions for take-offTake-offDrive to maturityAge of High mass consumptionNurkses balanced growth,The theory hypotheses that the government of any underdeveloped country needs tomake large investments in a number of industries simul
14、taneously.This wouldconsequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector toinvest.Rosenstein-Rodans external economies and big push,This theory is an investment theory which stresses the conditions of take-off.Theargumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth t
15、heory but emphasis is put onthe need for a big push.The investments should be of a relatively high minimum inorder to reap the benefits of external economies.Only investments in big complexeswill result in social benefits exceeding social costs.High priority is given to精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋
16、友，欢迎下载使用infrastruc-tural development and industry,and this emphasis will lead togovernmental development planning and influence.Lewiss unlimited supply of labor and dual-sector modelThe process of economic growth is inextricably linked to the growth of capitalistsurplus,that is as long as the the ca
17、pitalist surplus increases,the national incomealso increases raising the growth of the economy.The increase in capitalist surplus islinked to the use of more and more labor which is assumed to be in surplus in case ofthis model.This process of capital accumulation does come to an end at some point.T
18、his point is where capital accumulation catches up with population so that there isno longer any surplus labor left.Prebisch-Myrdal-Singer hypotheses about terms of trade and importsubstitutionThe thesisthesis postulates that terms of trade,between primary products andmanufactured goods,deteriorate
19、in time.Countries that export commodities(developing countries)in time would import fewer manufactured goods relative to agiven level of exports.Leibensteins critical minimum effort thesis,Critical minimum effort theoryCritical minimum effort theory is one of the balanced growth theories.It talks ab
20、outhow a minimum amount of push is required by an economy for it to be set on the pathof development.This push can be in the form of investments.The minimum amountof effort that is required is critical for the economy to move towards developmenthence this theory is called critical minimum effort.cri
21、tical minimum effort.Because of the high population inunderdeveloped countries the capital accumulation and labour supply are notsufficient to increase the per capita income.Chenerys two-gap model.Two-gap model(Two-gap Model),is the developing countries to achieve the savingsgap and foreign exchange
22、 gaps in the theory of the equilibrium model.The model isthrough the use of external resources in developing countries,to play the role ofgovernment in the same time,adjustment of domestic economic structure to adapt tothe introduction of external resources.It reflects the introduction of external r
23、esourcesin developing countries,for easing the scarcity of domestic resources is important.Two-gap model of the basic equation:I-S=M-X I-S is the difference betweeninvestment and savings,known as the savings gap M-X is the difference between精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用imports and exports,k
24、nown as the foreign exchange gap adjusted for the purpose ofeach variable is to balance the equation.A.Hirschman,Strategy of Economic Development(1958).Unbalanced growthContrary to the theory of balanced growth,in Hirschmans opinion,the realbottleneck is not the shortage of capital,but lack of entre
25、preneurial abilities.Potential entrepreneurs are hindered in their decision-making by institutional factors:either group considerations play a-great role and hinder the potential entrepreneur,or entrepreneurs aim at personal gains at the cost of others and are thus equallydetrimental to development.
26、In view of the lack of enterpreneurial abilities there is aneed for a mechanism of incentive and pressure which will automatically result in therequired decisions.According to Hirschman,not a balanced growth should be aimedat,but rather existing imbalances whose symptoms are profit and lossesmust be
27、maintained.Investments should not be spread evenly but concentrated in suchprojects in which they cause additional investments because of their backward andforward linkages without being too demanding on entrepreneurial abilities.Manufacturing industries and import substitutions are relevant example
28、s.These firstinvestments initiate further investments which are made by less qualifiedentrepreneurs.Thus,the strategy overcomes the bottleneck of entrepreneurial ability.The theory gives no hints as to how the attitude of entrepreneurs and theirinstitutional influence will be changed in time.P.Rosen
29、stein-Roden,Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and SoutheasternEurope,Economic Journal(June-September,1943).H.Leibenstein,Economicbackwardness and economic growth(1957).R.Nelson,“A theory of the low-levelequilibrium trap in underdeveloped economies,AER(Dec.1956).W.Rostow,Thestages of economic
30、growth(1960).R.Nurkse,Problems of capital formation inunderdeveloped countries(1953).Structuralist analysis:rigidities,lags,shortage and surpluses,low elasticities ofsupply and demand.G.Myrdal.Economic theory and underdeveloped regions(1957).R.Prebisch,“Theeconomic development of Latin America and I
31、ts principal problems,EconomicBulletin for Latin America 7(1950).H.Singer,“Gains and losses from trade andinvestment in underdeveloped countries,AER(may 1950).精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用(3)在 20 世纪 60 年代后期至 70 年代初期，开展经济学更加注重贫困和收入分配。增长的不平衡性，注重农村开展；人力资本的形成，对人力资源的研究；适用技术，而是最新技术的引进。Furthermore
32、,in the 1960s the initial concentration on physical capitalaccumulation was giving way to the concept of investment in humancapital and its implications for development.It was increasinglyrecognized that development depended on productive human agentswho,through their acquisition of knowledge,better
33、 health and nutrition,and increase in skills,could raise total factor productivity.470 年代至 80 年代，新古典经济学的重新崛起：对政策导致的市场扭曲的批评，对非市场失灵的批评，对政府控制的批评，from“get prices right to“getpolicies right,市场、价格、鼓励成为主题。内向型开展战略转向外向型出口导向性战略，价格稳定和控制通货膨胀成为首选目标，大力推进国有企业的私有化。注意到开展中国家之间的差异性，总体增长模型被国别的微观化模型所取代，国别的研究和经验研究受到越来越多的
34、重视，新古典经济学的根本原理被应用到开展中国家的政策研究。老开展经济学家是不成认新古典经济学可以用于开展中国家，而新开展经济学家不仅认为新古典经济学可以用于开展中国家，而且认为开展经济学不能成为一个专门的学科。If the first generation of development economists was visionary anddedicated to grand theories and general strategies,the second generationwas almost moralistic,dedicated to a somber realism grou
35、nded onfundamental principles of neoclassical economics.Harberger could sayto the governments of developing countries,Economics is good foryou-and by economics,he meant neoclassical analysis as the basisfor policymaking(Harberger 1993).Once it is recognized that individuals respond to incentives,and
36、that market failure is the result of inappropriate incentives ratherthan of nonresponsiveness,the separateness of development economicsas a field largely disappears.Instead,it becomes an appliedfield,in which the tools and insights of labor economics,agriculturaleconomics,international economics,pub
37、lic finance and otherfields are addressed to the special questions and policy issues thatarise in the context of development.(Krueger 1986:62 f)9(1)In accordance with neoclassical economic theory,the second generationmoved from highly aggregative models to disaggregatedmicrostudies in which the unit
38、s of analysis were production units andhouseholds.精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用(2)For offering policy advice,grand theories came to beviewed as less useful than highly specific applications.Microstudies,rather than the broader visionary models of the earlier period,couldprovide more direct
39、policy implications for specific policies such as achange in tariffs or agricultural subsidies.(3)There was a marked change from a focus on the process of development to anemphasis on particular features of underdevelopment.(4)Quantitative analytical tools were used more extensively,especially for e
40、mpiricalanalysis of microphenomena that were country specific,sector specific,or projectspecific.The greater availability of microdata sets allowed the modelingof household behavior and of human capital investments in educationand health.(5)The second generation,which was able to reflect on two or t
41、hree decadesof development experience,recognized the increasing heterogeneity ofdeveloping countries and gave more attention to an explanation of differentialrates of country performance.Cross-country econometric studiesof the determinants of economic growth multiplied.A comparativeapproach was adop
42、ted in an attempt to understand why certain policieswere effective in a given country while others were not,and whythe same type of policy was effective in one country but not in another.For example:In earlier concepts of the aggregate production function,the residualwas thought of as a coefficient
43、of technical advance.The second generation,however,looked at the growth process in a more microeconomicfashion.The residual was recognized to be a composite of the effectsof many different forces:(i)improvements in the quality of labor througheducation,experience and on-the-job training;(ii)realloca
44、tion of resourcesfrom low-productivity to higher-productivity uses,either throughnormal market forces,or through the reduction of barriers or distortions;(iii)exploitation of economies of scale;(iv)improved ways ofcombining resources to produce goods and services,not just at the levelof new machines
45、 or processes,but also by relatively adjustmentsat the level of the factory or the farm精品文档，word 文档本文为网上收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用Figure 1.Evolution of development thoughtGoals of developmentGDPGDP GDP per capitaGDP per capita HDIHDI Mitigation of povertyMitigation of poverty Entitlements and capabilitie
46、sEntitlements and capabilities FreedomFreedom Sustainable DSustainable DGrowth theoryHarrod-Domar modelHarrod-Domar model Solow sources of growthSolow sources of growth New growth theoryNew growth theoryCapital accumulationPhysical capitalPhysical capital H.C.H.C.Knowledge CKnowledge C Social C.Soci
47、al C.State and marketMarket failuresMarket failures Nonmarket failuresNonmarket failures New market failuresNew market failures Institutional failuresInstitutional failuresGovernment interventionsProgramming and planningProgramming and planning minimalist governmentminimalist government complementar
48、ity of government and marketcomplementarity of government and marketPolicy reformPoor because poorPoor because poor poor because poor polices(get prices right)poor because poor polices(get prices right)get policies rightget policies right get institutions rightget institutions right精品文档，word 文档本文为网上
49、收集整理，如需要该文档得朋友，欢迎下载使用2.2.开展与增长理论开展与增长理论2.1 增长与开展的差异(1)“Development is taken to mean growth plus change.“Improvement of thefactors of production,improved technology of production;the development ofinstitutions and a change in attitudes and values.(2)“Upward movement of the entire social systemGunnar
50、Myrdal.(3)“A rise in productivity,social and economic equalization,modern knowledge,improved institutions and attitudes and rationally coordinated system of policymeasures.-C.E.Black.(4)Growth,equality and valuation of output.2.22.2 Differences in economic level and growth across countriesDifference