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1、SHAPING THE FUTURE OF SHAPING THE FUTURE OF SPECIALTY CHEMICALS-SPECIALTY CHEMICALS-POSSIBLE BUSINESS MODELSPOSSIBLE BUSINESS MODELSJol Claret SW/GVJol Claret SW/GVCampbell Langdon NY/NYCampbell Langdon NY/NYRalph Marquardt GE/FTRalph Marquardt GE/FTRamesh Srinivasan IN/DLRamesh Srinivasan IN/DLPetr
2、a Jantzer SW/ZHPetra Jantzer SW/ZHSimon Lowth UK/LNSimon Lowth UK/LNDavid McVeigh NY/NJDavid McVeigh NY/NJMCKINSEY GLOBAL CHEMICAL PRACTICEMCKINSEY GLOBAL CHEMICAL PRACTICEMCKINSEY GLOBAL CHEMICAL PRACTICEDECEMBER 2000DECEMBER 2000DECEMBER 2000181099LNZXS547LMRS-C104/199804/199804/199811/199801/1999
3、End 1999New CEO/Comp.Month/YearDavid LilleyCytecMark BulrissGreat LakesAl StrouckenH.B.FullerPaul NorrisGraceHector OrtinoFerroRaj L.GuptaRohm&Haas10/199804/199906/199901/199905/199906/1999New CEO/Comp.Month/YearLyndon ColeElementisBrendan ONeillICIJean-P.TiroufletRhodiaRolf MeyerCibaReinhard Handte
4、Clariant(COO)Vincent J.CorboHerculesAny other industry with that many new CEOs Any other industry with that many new CEOs within 18 months?within 18 months?1181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Fundamental questions facing CEOs today Fundamental questions facing CEOs today What is the approach to achieve sustainabl
5、e,profitable growth?What is the approach to achieve sustainable,profitable growth?How can a specialty chemical company become sharper,at How can a specialty chemical company become sharper,at creating an attractive and cohesive portfolio?creating an attractive and cohesive portfolio?Where are the sy
6、nergies in specialty chemicals?Where are the synergies in specialty chemicals?How can the corporate center of a multi-business specialty How can the corporate center of a multi-business specialty company add value to the sum of its business units?company add value to the sum of its business units?Wi
7、ll mega-specialties outperform the market or disappear in the Will mega-specialties outperform the market or disappear in the future?future?Will the overall industry attractiveness improve;should Will the overall industry attractiveness improve;should shareholders invest in specialty chemicals?share
8、holders invest in specialty chemicals?2181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1ActivitiesModulesMarket overviewBest practices in Corporate Architecture and Performance ManagementInterview notes of practitioner interviewsSegments analysisProfiles of playersPerformance analysis and companiesStandard SMI analysesStrategy
9、 control mapsCase studiesInterview notesDraft documents,minutes,storylinesKey activities of the teamKey activities of the teamSynthesis of current McKinsey understandingOutside-in desk research and interviews with analysts,data providersApplication of latest McKinsey thinkingInterviews with Business
10、 Unit Heads and CEOsTeam brainstorming and synthesis meetings 3181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Business Unit Heads Ciba Degussa-Hls Great Lakes Kelco Nalco National Starch Lonza(Nov.99)Corporate Center Ciba Degussa-Hls ICI National StarchCompanies interviewed by Specialty Chemicals Companies interviewed by Spe
11、cialty Chemicals InitiativeInitiative4181099LNZXS547LMRS-C11)Current shareholder value performance of specialty 1)Current shareholder value performance of specialty chemicals is well below any index,primarily due to chemicals is well below any index,primarily due to sub-optimal business mixes and la
12、ck of growth in a sub-optimal business mixes and lack of growth in a rapidly maturing industry.Whilst there appears to be rapidly maturing industry.Whilst there appears to be major upside potential,a new approach to managing major upside potential,a new approach to managing specialty chemical compan
13、ies is required to achieve specialty chemical companies is required to achieve an attractive TRS.an attractive TRS.2)Achieving leadership in the respective numerous 2)Achieving leadership in the respective numerous US$500m global micro-segments will require US$500m global micro-segments will require
14、 companies to first earn the right to be shapers by companies to first earn the right to be shapers by improving their stand-alone business performance.improving their stand-alone business performance.They can then play the consolidation game and They can then play the consolidation game and activel
15、y shape key arenas to their advantage.actively shape key arenas to their advantage.Summary of messagesSummary of messages5181099LNZXS547LMRS-C13)Successful segment leadership will require proper 3)Successful segment leadership will require proper alignment with and exceptional execution of one of si
16、x alignment with and exceptional execution of one of six distinct winning business models relevant to specialty distinct winning business models relevant to specialty chemicals.Constant re-alignment of the business model chemicals.Constant re-alignment of the business model with changes in the indus
17、try/segment and customer with changes in the industry/segment and customer needs will ensure sustained success.needs will ensure sustained success.4)Carrying out such a massive change in all Business 4)Carrying out such a massive change in all Business Units will require mega-specialties to design m
18、ulti-Units will require mega-specialties to design multi-BUsBUs/clusters with strong BUs in line with selected arenas/clusters with strong BUs in line with selected arenas as well as lean,Principal Investment-type corporate as well as lean,Principal Investment-type corporate centers.They will also n
19、eed to develop a few selected centers.They will also need to develop a few selected capabilities and align metrics,people and values with the capabilities and align metrics,people and values with the BU models to radically improve performance.BU models to radically improve performance.Summary of mes
20、sages Summary of messages(continued)(continued)6181099LNZXS547LMRS-C15)The future industry landscape is likely to change 5)The future industry landscape is likely to change towards newly defined arenas.A few leaders with towards newly defined arenas.A few leaders with superior corporate capabilities
21、 will shape these arenas superior corporate capabilities will shape these arenas by continuously expanding their portfolio in a targeted by continuously expanding their portfolio in a targeted way,refreshing their business models regularly,out-way,refreshing their business models regularly,out-execu
22、ting their competitors,seeking new avenues for executing their competitors,seeking new avenues for growth and putting in place value-adding corporate growth and putting in place value-adding corporate centers.Some focused players might remain centers.Some focused players might remain competitive in
23、mature arenas or niches.The gap competitive in mature arenas or niches.The gap between leaders and followers will increase between leaders and followers will increase significantly.Eventually,the extent of industry significantly.Eventually,the extent of industry restructuring will depend on the numb
24、er of players restructuring will depend on the number of players capable and willing to drive this change.capable and willing to drive this change.Summary of messages Summary of messages(continued)(continued)7181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Chapter 1:Understanding unimpressive performance of the specialty chem
25、icals industry Chapter 2:Key challenges facing a potential“Shaper”of the industryChapter 3:Value creation framework for future leadersChapter 4:Future landscape of the specialty chemicals industryChapter 5:Possible approach to make it happen8181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Source:SRI,Literature ResearchWhat ar
26、e the Specialty Chemicals?What are the Specialty Chemicals?Single chemical entitiesCan be either single chemical entities or combinations of several chemicalsHigh value-added products(US$3 per kg)Commodity chemicalsIntermediate or fine chemicalsSpecialty chemicalsSold strictly on basis of chemical c
27、ompositionReadily interchangeable with products of other supplierCapital intensive industry;advantages of scale significantSold primarily on basis of chemical composition,price,availability,purityReadily interchangeable with products of other supplierLess capital intensive industry,but advantages of
28、 scale remainCan be either single chemical entities or combinations of several chemicalsSynthesized to more exacting standardsProduced in relatively low volumes in multi-step batch operationsSold on basis of performance,rather than on compositionLow minimum economies of scale for physical plantsHigh
29、 value-added products (US$3 per kilo)Synthesized to more exacting standardsProduced in relatively low volumes in multi-step batch operations of small dedicated continuous plantsSpecialty chemicals/products are a small part of a customers costs9181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Agro-chemicalsAll specialties700700
30、Commodities300300202520252530253016020016020050755075Fine chemicals(esp.for pharma)Specialty chemicalsRelated commodities1,0001,000Key characteristics Price per kg US$3 Products sold on basis of performance Low minimum economies of scale for physical plants;mainly batch processes Less than 5%of cust
31、omers cost structure*Per definition excluded:Soap and toiletries(US$bn150-200)and Pharmaceuticals(US$bn 300-350)Source:SRI,CIALarge industryLarge industry*with sales of US$250300bwith sales of US$250300bUS$bUS$b10Specialty chemicalsOverall market sizeSegment sizeGrowth rangeMarginsEBITROIC*Capital t
32、urnoverR&D salesPercent ofcustomers costCyclicalityValue per kiloCommodity chemicals US$250300b US$0.51.0b 34%1020%13.2%243.3%of total sales30%of total salesCyclicalUS$0.55.0*average yearly ROIC 1988-97,not including goodwillSource:PD document of R.Berendes et al.:Specialties modities:similar perfor
33、mance Specialties modities:similar performance but different nature of businessbut different nature of business11181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Major supplier fragmentationMajor supplier fragmentation$b,specialty chemical and coating sales,2000$b,specialty chemical and coating sales,2000*Total Specialty Chemi
34、cal sales estimated at$250-300 billionSource:Chemical Specialties,September/October 2000;McKinsey analysisESTIMATESESTIMATESDegussa-Huls/SKWDegussa-Huls/SKWRohm&HaasRohm&HaasClariantClariantICIICICiba SCCiba SCAtofinaAtofinaDainipponDainipponDow/Union CarbideDow/Union CarbideAkzo NobelAkzo NobelRhod
35、iaRhodiaSumitomo ChemicalSumitomo ChemicalHerculesHerculesPolyOnePolyOneEastmanEastmanCromptonCromptonShin-EtsuShin-EtsuDupontDupontDow CorningDow CorningJohnson MattheyJohnson MattheyEcolabEcolabSuez Lyonnaise des EauxSuez Lyonnaise des EauxHoneywellHoneywellEngelhardEngelhardAveciaAveciaLubrizolLu
36、brizolW.R.GraceW.R.GraceGreat LakesGreat LakesCytecCytecLaporteLaporteIFFIFFFerroFerroNippon ShokubaiNippon ShokubaiLonzaLonzaH.B.FullerH.B.FullerBF GoodrichBF GoodrichArch ChemicalsArch ChemicalsA.SchulmanA.SchulmanAlbemarleAlbemarleMerck KgaAMerck KgaAISPISPBASFBASFGentekGentekBayerBayerCabotCabot
37、DSMDSMCognisCognisTop 10 have Top 10 have 20%share20%shareGivaudanGivaudan12U.S.specialtiesU.S.specialtiesTotal chemical industryTotal chemical industryS&P 500(RI)S&P 500(RI)European specialtiesEuropean specialtiesTotal chemical industryTotal chemical industryEurope total marketEurope total marketU.
38、S.EuropePerformance of specialty chemical companies Performance of specialty chemical companies has been below the total chemical industryhas been below the total chemical industryTRS,%TRS,%500400300200100090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 995004003002001000Focused expansionFocused expansionInvestors quest
39、ion growthInvestors question growthSpin-off/visibilitySpin-off/visibilityBig Big acquisitionsacquisitionsLarge M&ALarge M&A90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0000*Crompton&Knowles,Great Lakes,Hercules,Morton Int.(until 06/99).,Rohm&Haas,Witco(until 09/99),Albemarle,Cabot,Cytec,Engelhard,Ethyl,Ferro,Fulle
40、r,Grace,IFF,Lubrizol,Nalco,Sigma-Aldrich*Ciba,Clariant,Degussa-Hls,ICI,Allbright-Wilson(until 09/99),Allied Colloids(until 03/98),Courtaulds(09/98),Croda,Elementis,Laporte,Sd-Chemie,SKW Trostberg,Johnson-MattheySource:Datastream;McKinsey analysis13*Crompton&Knowles,Great Lakes,Hercules,Morton Int.,R
41、ohm&Haas,Witco,Albemarle,Cabot,Cytec,Engelhard,Ethyl,Ferro,Fuller,Grace,IFF,Lubrizol,Nalco,Sigma-Aldrich*Ciba,Clariant,Degussa-Hls,ICI,Allbright-Wilson(until 09/99),Allied Colloids(until 03/98),Courtaulds,Croda,Elementis,Laporte,Sd-Chemie,SKW Trostberg,Johnson-MattheySource:Datastream;McKinsey analy
42、sisJapan(excluding Sumitomo chemicals)Japanese specialtiesJapanese specialtiesTotal chemical industryTotal chemical industryJapan total marketJapan total marketJapanese specialtiesJapanese specialtiesTotal chemical industryTotal chemical industryJapan total marketJapan total market100100808060604040
43、20200 09090 9191 9292 9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 99999090 9191 9292 9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999Japan(including Sumitomo chemicals)Performance of Japanese specialty chemical Performance of Japanese specialty chemical companies is below the marketcompanies is below the marketTRS,%TRS,%100100
44、80806060404020200 014EngelhardCrompton&KnowlesSKW TrostbergFullerSigma-AldrichJohnson-MattheyGraceAlbemarleCabotMortonRohm&HaasFerroIFFDegussa-HlsGreat LakesHerculesCrodaLubrizolSdchemieNalcoLaporteWitcoElementisEthylAlbright-WilsonAllied Colloids*Courtaulds*No specialty chemical company has No spec
45、ialty chemical company has outperformed the capital marketoutperformed the capital marketTotal return to shareholdersTotal return to shareholders*(CAGR 1/90-1/99),%(CAGR 1/90-1/99),%S&P 500(18)Source:Datastream;McKinsey analysisSource:Datastream;McKinsey analysis15181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Only a few com
46、panies have done well in this Only a few companies have done well in this tough environment tough environment*ROIC including goodwill*excluded companies(av.after-tax ROIC,sales growth CAGR):Ciba(1997-1998):-14.3%,7.7%;Clariant(1996-1998):17.1%,102%SKW Trostberg(1995-1997):16.3%,18,7%After tax ROIC*(
47、average 19941998)Total sales growth(CAGR 19941998)*Average WACC US specialties199497(9.6%)EngelhardCrompton&KnowlesSigmaJohnson MattheyNominal GDP US/EU 199498(4.7%)Great LakesRohm&HaasDegussaHerculesICIWitco%16181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1 *BTP acquired by Clariant(01.2000);Burmah acquired by BP Amoco(03.2
48、000)Source:Datastream;Annual Reports;McKinsey analysisEuropeU.S.Market to book value at entity level(as of 30.9.00)AverageTRS last 3 yearsAverage 1.6Average TRS last 3 yearsMarket to book value at entity level(as of 30.9.00)Average 1.4-30%-20%-10%-0%5.0Av.7%10%20%30%40%50%0.01.02.03.04.0Johnson Matt
49、heyRhodiaAkzo NobelCrodaICILaporteCibaSud-ChemieElementisDegussa-HlsBP AmocoClariant0.0-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.751.52.253.0Av.-12%GraceRohm&HaasValsparCromptonFullerCytecHerculesEthylCabotGreat LakesEngelhardAlbemarleFerroLubrizolSherwinBTP*Burmah*IFFFew companies have outperformed the pack
50、Few companies have outperformed the pack17181099LNZXS547LMRS-C1Sub-optimal mix of Sub-optimal mix of businesses and littlebusinesses and littlematch in M&Amatch in M&A75%of segments show 75%of segments show a slow down in growth a slow down in growth High management High management complexity comple