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1、Energy Policy 36(2008)11071124The Triptych approach revisited:A staged sectoral approachfor climate mitigationMichel den Elzena,?,Niklas Ho hneb,Sara MoltmannbaNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency(MNP),P.O.Box 303,3720 AH Bilthoven,The NetherlandsbEcofys Germany GmbH,Cologne,GermanyReceived 1
2、9 July 2007;accepted 23 November 2007Available online 9 January 2008AbstractThe Triptych approach is a method for allocating future greenhouse gas(GHG)emission reductions among countries under a post-2012international climate mitigation regime based on technological criteria at the sector level,and
3、accounting for structural differences.Theemission allowances are decomposed according to sectors,thereby enabling the link to real-world emission reduction strategies to be moreconcrete.The new Triptych approach presented here is a refinement of an earlier version in terms of an increased transparen
4、cy and allowing adelayed participation for developing countries(initial participation of developing countries with incentives but no penalties through no losetargets or sustainable development policies and measures).For this article we calculated the emission reductions for countries for twotechnolo
5、gy-oriented scenarios,which stabilize GHG concentrations at 450 and 550ppm CO2-eq,respectively.The reductions are ambitious,but nonetheless compatible with existing technical reduction potentials as growth is allowed but efficiency has to be improved.r 2007 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.Keywords:
6、Post-2012 regimes;Sectoral targets;UNFCCC;Future commitments;Emissions;Climate change1.IntroductionThe focus of attention in international climate negotia-tions is to strengthen the international framework for theyears following the Kyoto Protocols initial commitmentperiod,i.e.after 2012.The overrid
7、ing challenge is to designan agreement that includes all of the major emittingcountriesboth developed and developingand to dis-tribute responsibilities and emission-reduction require-mentsbetweencountriestobeeffective,technicallyfeasible in order to meet the long-term objective of theUnitedNationsFr
8、ameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC,1992),i.e.stabilization of greenhousegas(GHG)concentrationsatalevelthatpreventsdangerous climate change.To this end,many proposalsfor differentiating commitments among countries havebeen developed,including those developed by Parties to theUNFCCC as well as ot
9、hers published in the literature(e.g.,Aldy et al.,2003;Blok et al.,2005;Bodansky,2004;Torvanger and Godal,2004 for an overview).In this article,the global Triptych approach is developedfurther as a tool for differentiating post-2012 commitmentsamong countries.The Triptych approach attempts to incorp
10、o-rate a number of widely supported notions in the climatedebate,the most important of which are the necessity fortechnological improvement,the transition to low emissionsand the desirability of reducing differences in per capitaemissions and accounting for national circumstances ofcountries.The Tri
11、ptych approach assigns emission reductioncommitments to individual countries according to commonrules using country-specific sector and technology information.These common rules allow for growth in economic activitiesand require an improvement in efficiency or emission intensity.The Original Triptyc
12、h approach was used for supportingdecision-making when differentiating the European Unions(EU)internal Kyoto target among its Member States bothbefore and after Kyoto(COP-3)(Blok et al.,1997;Phylipsenet al.,1998;Ringius,1999).It may,therefore,serve the samepurpose on a much broader international lev
13、el.ARTICLE IN PRESS front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.11.026?Corresponding author.Tel.:+31302743584;fax:+31302744464.E-mail address:michel.den.Elzenmnp.nl(M.den Elzen).The original approach only comprised energy-relatedCO2emissions and highlighted three se
14、ctors:(1)inter-nationally orientated,energy-intensive sectors of industry(or heavy industry),1(2)the domestic sector2and(3)theelectricity power sector.The methodology calculates theemission allowances for each sector using uniform rulesapplied equally to all countries,and the sum of the sectoralemis
15、sions allowances is the national allowance for eachcountry.Only one national target per country is pro-posedno sectoral targetsin order that countries aregiven more flexibility to pursue cost-effective emission-reduction strategies.In the following years,the approach was extended to theglobal scale(
16、see den Elzen,2002;Groenenberg et al.,2001)and to include more sectors as well as non-CO2GHGs.TheGlobal Convergence Triptych3developed by Groenenberget al.(2004)includes a target-oriented calculation schemefor calculating emission allowances from six sectorsfossilfuel production,agriculture and defo
17、restation as well as theoriginal three energy-using sectorsin which both CO2and non-CO2emissions are taken into account at the levelof world regions for the 20102050 time frame.The schemedefines global long-term sustainability targets for the GHGintensity of electricity production,for energy efficie
18、ncy inthe energy-intensive industry and for per capita emissionsin the domestic sectors.Bottom-up data on sectoralreduction opportunities are used to set the level of thesustainability targets.A logical next step was to extend the calculation to thelevel of countries,as has been done for the first t
19、ime in theTriptych 6.0 approach developed by Ho hne et al.(2005).Itsmethodology incorporated another new element,i.e.theemissions for the power sector are based on assumptionsfor future shares of coal,oil,gas and renewables in theelectricity mix and for changes in the fuel mix in fossil fuel-based p
20、ower plants as well as for convergence levels infossil fuel-based power generation efficiencies.Further-more,for the growth in the industrial production,auniform structural change factor was introduced.Thiswas necessary since countries future industrial productiv-ity data that account for structural
21、 changes were notavailable.Consequently,an economic indicator(industrialvalue-added)had to be used for future industrial produc-tivity levels,which usually increases much faster thanphysical industrial production.The methodology of the updated Triptych approach(version 7.0,named the Differentiated C
22、onvergence Trip-tych approach)presented here includes several other newelements that were added in response to the shortcomingsof earlier versions:?Common but differentiated responsibilities conver-gence,which means that all convergence trajectories inthe methodology(like convergence in energy effic
23、iency)arebasedonacommonconvergence,butaredifferentiated in time.This concept is based on theidea of Ho hne et al.(2006a).Delayed participation of(least)developing countries could also overcome dataimplementation problems for these countries.?Prior to participating in the convergence trajectories,dev
24、eloping countries commit in a clear and definitemanner by adopting sustainable development objectives,the so-called sustainable development policies andmeasures(SD-PAMs)or no-lose targets(Section 3.1).Our model implementation of the Differentiated Con-vergence Triptych approach includes several othe
25、r improve-ments compared to the earlier Triptych 6.0 version:?For calculating the future power sector emissions weassume the same methodology as in Triptych 6.0,butmore simplified as described in Section 3.4.?The growth of industrial production is based on totalfinal energy consumption in industry t
26、aken from therecently updated IMAGE 2.3 implementation of all sixIPCC SRES scenarios(Nakicenovic et al.,2000)(here-after IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios)(van Vuuren et al.,2007a).As such,it also better accounts for structuralchanges in the industrial sector as well as autonomousbaseline energy-efficiency
27、improvements(Section 3.2).?Energy-efficiency indices are based on national specificdata,which are estimated in the Differentiated Conver-gence Triptych approach for many individual countries(Section 3.2)as compared to older and regional dataapplied at the level of countries used in Triptych 6.0.?We
28、use an updated baseline scenario of population,gross domestic product(GDP)and emissions at the levelof 224 individual UN member countries,which wasderived from a updated downscaling methodology ofvan Vuuren et al.(2007b),applied on the regional data4of the updated IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios(vanVuuren
29、 et al.,2007a)5,as described in Section 2.ARTICLE IN PRESS1Iron and steel,chemicals,pulp and paper,non-metallic minerals,non-ferrous metals and the energy-transformation sector,including petroleumrefining,the manufacture of solid fuels,coal mining,oil and gas extractionand any energy transformation
30、other than electricity production.2The domestic sectors comprise various sectors:not only the residentialsector(households),but also the commercial sector,transportation,andlight industry are included in this category,as are CO2emissions related tocombustion in agriculture and during the production
31、of fossil fuels.3For a comparison of all earlier Triptych methodologies,see den Elzenet al.(2007a).4More specifically 17 regions:Canada,USA,OECD Europe,EasternEurope,Former Soviet Union countries,Oceania and Japan(Annex Iregions);Central America,South America,Northern Africa,WesternAfrica,Eastern Af
32、rica,Southern Africa,Middle East&Turkey;SouthAsia(incl.India),East Asia(incl.China),South-East Asia(non-Annex Iregions)(IMAGE-team,2001).5Under Triptych 6.0(Ho hne et al.,2005),a set of baseline scenarios forpopulation,GDP and sectoral emissions at the level of countries,based ona linear downscaling
33、 method using the regional trend for the IMAGE 2.2IPCC SRES emission scenarios,was used.This methodology was highlycriticized in the literature(see den Elzen,2005;Pitcher,2004;van Vuurenet al.,2007b),as it may lead to unrealistic results for some countries.M.den Elzen et al./Energy Policy 36(2008)11
34、0711241108Note that both the renewed approach and Triptych 6.0use the same definition of emission allowances,which isCO2-equivalent emissions,including the anthropogenicemissions of six Kyoto GHGs(fossil CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,PFCs and SF6(using the 100-year Global WarmingPotentials of IPCC,2001)but exclu
35、ding CO2emissionsfrom land-use changes.6This article is structured as follows.Section 2 describesthe modelling tool and data used for this analysis.Section 3describesthemethodologyoftheupdatedTriptychapproach.Section 4 presents the countries emissionallowances for two scenarios,including different c
36、onver-gence trajectories,and analyses whether these are compa-tible with achieving long-term GHG concentrations targets.Section 5 discusses the advantages and disadvantages of theTriptych approach and presents our main conclusions.2.The modelling tool and data usedThe tool used for the quantitative
37、analysis of emissionallowances at the level of 224 countries is the FAIR 2.1country model(den Elzen et al.,2007b;den Elzen andLucas,2005).This model is designed for a quantitativeexploration of a range of post-2012 climate regimes forfuture commitments.For the historical data we usedifferent data so
38、urces.The base year(2000)populationdata are provided by the UN World Population Prospects(UN,2004).The national per capita income levels in thebase-year,expressed in purchasing power parity in USdollars(PPP$),are based on the 2004 database WorldDevelopment Indicators(World Bank,2004).The histor-ical
39、(19902003)sectoral countries GHG emissions arebased on the International Energy Agency(IEA)andEDGAR databases,7i.e.:(1)CO2emissions from fossil fuelcombustion for the period 19902003 as published by theIEA(2005);(2)CO2(other than from fossil fuel combus-tion,excluding CO2emissions from land-use chan
40、ges),CH4,N2O,HFC,PFC and SF6emissions for the period19902000 from the EDGAR database version 3.2(Olivieret al.,2005).Emissions until 2010 are estimated as follows:?It is assumed that Annex I countries(excluding the USAand Australia)implement their Kyoto targets by 2010.?It is assumed that the reduct
41、ions necessary to meet theKyoto target are achieved in all sectors equally:we takethe sectoral baseline emissions in 2010 and reduceemissions of all sectors by the same factor so that theKyoto targets are met.?All Non-Annex I countries follow their baseline scenarioup to 2010.For the future baseline
42、 scenario of population,per capitaincome and sectoral emissions,we apply the downscalingmethodology of van Vuuren et al.(2007b),downscalingfrom the 17 world regions towards 224 countries,on theupdated IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios(van Vuuren et al.,2007a).The methodology is based on external-input-based
43、downscaling for population,convergence-based downscal-ing for GDP and emissions.For the calculation of thesectoral emissions,we further assume the following:?For the energy-and industry-related sectors(industrysector,domestic sector,power sector and fossil fuelproduction),relative changes in the thr
44、ee components(population,per capita GDP and emission intensity)compared to the base year(2000)are used to determinethe future sectoral emissions per country.?For the agriculture and waste sectors,simple lineardownscaling is used(regional emission trend for allcountries within the region),as these se
45、ctors are onlyloosely linked to consumption and much more closelyrelated to production levels.We perform the calculations for each of the six IMAGEIPCC SRES scenarios separately,where,in each run,allparameters develop according to the one scenario.3.Description of the Differentiated Convergence Trip
46、tychapproachThis section describes the new Triptych approach inmore detail.Section 3.1 describes the methodology of thedifferentiated participation.Sections 3.23.7 describe themethodologies applied for the six Triptych sectorsindustry,electric power generation,and domestic sectorand non-combustion e
47、missions from fossil fuel production,agriculture and waste.3.1.Differentiated participationIn the Differentiated Convergence Triptych approach,convergence by common but differentiated responsibil-ities is implemented.This means that all convergencetrajectories are based on a common convergence,but a
48、redifferentiated in time in that developing countries have tomeet the same obligation as developed countries(i.e.allAnnex I countries,incl.USA)to reduce emissions.Thistranslates into developing countries having the sameobligation as developed countries to reduce emissions,but the obligation is delay
49、ed and conditional to the actionscarried out by developed countries(Ho hne et al.,2006a).For example,Annex I countries per capita domesticconverge within,for example,40 years(20102050)to acommon per capita emissions level.Non-Annex I coun-tries per capita emissions also converge to the same levelwit
50、hin the same convergence period,but starting later,forexample in 2020.Until that point is reached,non-Annex Icountries commit to policies and measures with a focus onARTICLE IN PRESS6Emissions from land-use changes are highly uncertain,and emissionestimates from various sources are often not consist