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1、论述国债市场是非有效市场,证券投资论文【题目】阐述国债市场是非有效市场 【绪论】 【第一章】 【第二章】 【第三章】 【第四章】 【以下为参考文献】 摘 要 随着利率市场化改革的深切进入，随着我们国家国债市场的不断发展，学者们对国债市的研究也不断地进步。我们国家由于经济、政治体制、历史等种种原因，国债市场的发育较为落后，落后不仅仅是与一些发达国家相比，与我们国家的其他金融工具相比，国债市场的发展也较为滞后。 而国债市场在一国的金融市场乃至在整个社会的经济运行上都发挥了极重要的作用：国债市场为宏观经济政策的制定提供了重要的平台，货币政策主要指公开市场操作、财政政策一般都以国债市场为平台进行宏观的
2、经济调控；国债市场生成着整个金融市场的基准价格，被普遍的视为无风险收益率；国债市场为其他金融市场提供流动性支持，为投资者提供利率风险管理机制。 因而，越来越多的学者把研究的目光投向了国债，国债市场的完善发展也已经引起了我们国家的最高决策层的重视。 在研究金融工具时，我们总是关注风险、收益的关系。而国债这一金融工具的风险、收益关系就集中具体表现出在国债收益率曲线中，国债收益率曲线能够帮助投资者在一级市场中计算国债的投标利率，是能否进行投资、怎么来投资的一个重要根据，并为预测二级市场价格提供相应根据。同时，发行国债、加强对国债的管理、施行货币政策、财政政策也需要参考国债收益率曲线的变动，因此，国债
3、收益率曲线是国债市场上的重要研究工具。尽管我们国家的国债收益率曲线，其本身是完好、准确的，但这并不能讲明我们国家当下的国债市场，是有效的市场。因而，本文很有必要，就我们国家国债市场能否有效进行深切进入的讨论。 本文共包括五个部分：第一部分为绪论，包括论文的选题背景、选题意义，相关文献综述、本文框架构造、本文的创新及缺乏。第二部分是国债市场有效性的相关理论知识：本章分析了国债市场的重要地位和作用，总结了国债的基本功能，分析了影响国债价格的因素，给出了有效性市场的含义。第三部分讨论了我们国家国债市场有效性的判别标准，并根据这些标准对我们国家国债市场在对应方面的有效性进行了定性和实证检验。第四部分是
4、原因分析，分析了当下导致我们国家国债市场非强有效的主要原因，这一部分是定性分析。最后一部分为本文的政策建议部分，根据以上四个部分的分析研究，本文提出了下面几个方面的政策建议，包括：丰富交易主体类型、丰富国债交易品种、完善发行机制、建立统一的国债二级市场、提高二级市场的流动性、强化国债衍生品的发展等。 本文关键词语：国债市场 有效性 政策建议 ABSTRACT With the deepening of the market-based reform of interest rates, with the continuousdevelopment of national debt market
5、 in China, scholars study of Treasury bond market,the bond yield curve also constantly progress. The development of our country forvarious reasons, the Treasury bond market is relatively backward, not only is backwardcompared with some developed countries, compared with other financial instruments i
6、nour country, the development of Treasury bond market is relatively lagging behind. The Treasury bond market in a country s financial market and even in the economicoperation of the whole society has played a very important role: the Treasury bondmarket for macroeconomic policy provides an important
7、 platform, monetary policymainly refers to the open market operations， fiscal policy is generally in the Treasurymarket as a platform for macro economic control; The Treasury bond market generatedthe whole financial market benchmark, is generally regarded as risk-free yield; TheTreasury bond market
8、to provide liquidity support to other financial markets, provideinvestors with interest rate risk management mechanism. The Treasury bond market in a country s financial market and even in the economicoperation of the whole society has played a very important role, therefore, more andmore scholars s
9、tudy looking at the Treasury, the Treasury bond market has caused theattention of the highest level of our country. In the research of financial instruments, we always focus on the risks and benefits. And national debt risk of the financial instruments, the relationship between the incomeis concentr
10、ated in the bond yield curve, yield curve can help investors in the primarymarket calculate the bid rate bonds, is whether to invest, how to invest in one of theimportant basis, and provide basis for predicting the secondary market price. At the sametime, the government issued Treasury bonds, streng
11、thening the management of theTreasury, the implementation of monetary policy, fiscal policy also needs to refer tochanges in the bond yield curve, thus, the bond yield curve is an important research toolon the Treasury market. Although the Treasury yield curve in China, and its itself iscomplete and
12、 accurate, but this does not mean that China s current national debt market,is the effective market. Therefore, this article is necessary, the Treasury bond market inChina is whether effective depth. This paper includes five parts: the first part is introduction, including the paperselected topic ba
13、ckground, the selected topic significance, the related literature review,this paper frame structure, this article s innovation and inadequate. The second part is theTreasury bond market effectiveness of relevant theoretical knowledge, this chapteranalyzes the important position and role of the Treas
14、ury bond market, summarizes thebasic function of national debt, analyses the factors that affect bond prices, given themeaning of the effectiveness of the market. The third part discusses the judgmentstandard, the effectiveness of the national debt market in China and the Treasury bondmarket in Chin
15、a according to these standards to the effectiveness of the correspondingaspects has carried on the qualitative and empirical test. The fourth part is the analysis ofthe causes, the paper analyzes the current main cause of the strong bond market in ourcountry not effective, this part is qualitative a
16、nalysis. Policy Suggestions on part of thelast part of this article, according to the analysis and study of the above four parts, thispaper puts forward policy Suggestions on the following aspects, including: rich tradingmain body types, rich national debt trading varieties, perfect the distribution
17、 mechanism,establish a unified Treasury bonds in the secondary market, improve the liquidity of thesecondary market, strengthen the development of the national debt derivatives, etc. Key Words: Treasury Market Effectiveness Policy Suggestions 目 录 内容摘要 ABSTRACT 绪论 0.1 研究背景及意义 0.2 文献综述 0.2.1 国外研究现在状况
18、0.2.2 国内研究现在状况 0.3 本文的构造 0.4 本文的创新及缺乏 1 理论分析 1.1 市场有效性的含义 1.2 有效市场理论 1.2.1 有效市场假讲 1.2.2 对 EMH 理论的质疑 1.3 影响国债价格的因素 1.3.1 基本面因素 1.3.2 资金面因素 1.3.3 政策面因素 1.4 国债的功能和作用 2 我们国家国债市场能否有效的判别 2.1 市场规模 2.1.1 判别标准 2.1.2 我们国家国债市场规模的定性分析 2.2 期限构造 2.2.1 判别标准 2.2.2 我们国家国债期限构造的定性分析 2.3 发行周期 2.3.1 判别标准 2.3.2 我们国家国债发行周期的定性分析 2.4 发行制度 2.4.1 判别标准 2.4.2 我们国家国债发行制度的定性分析 2.5 我们国家国债市场有效性的实证检验 2.5.1 判别标准 2.5.2 实证检验 3 我们国家国债市场非有效的原因 3.1 投资主体构造欠合理 3.2 国债期限构造单一 3.3 发行机制不合理 3.4 流通市场不统一 3.5 二级市场流动性缺乏 4 政策建议 4.1 丰富交易主体的类型 4.2 丰富国债交易品种 4.3 完善发行机制 4.4 建立统一的国债二级市场 4.5 提高二级市场的流动性 4.6 强化国债衍生品的发展 以下为参考文献 致谢