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1、2 0 1 1/2 0 1 2 季度中国玉米市场分析2011/2012 China Corn Market冯吉龙 总经理 吉林双胞胎粮食贸易有限公司Mr.Feng Jilong,General Manager,Dalian Beifang International Grain Logistics Co.,Ltd.一、中国玉米市场的供需格局发生本质变化Essential Changes in Supply and Demand二、中国玉米市场的短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis三、中国玉米市场的中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis1（一）中国玉米供需格局的演变2Fro
2、m oversupply to tight balance of S/D to supply shortageEssential Changes in Supply and Demand（二）中国玉米供应分析数据来源：U S D A 北方物流研发部单位：亿吨，%注：2 0 1 1/2 0 1 2 年产量暂为U S D A 预估?1 0 年间中国玉米产量总体呈现增长趋势。?1 0 年间中国玉米产量增量约为4 7%。?产量增长主要来源于播种面积的增加。Corn output increased by 47%over the past ten years,mainly because of the
3、increased acreage.?伴随1 0 年间中国玉米产量总体的增加，中国玉米价格总体也在呈逐年上涨的趋势。Price also increased.3S o u r c e：U S D A N o r t h e r n L o g i s t i c s U n i t:1 0 0 m i l l i o n，%N o t e：2 0 1 1/2 0 1 2O u t p u t i s t h e e s t i m a t e b y U S D AChina Corn Supply Analysis（三）中国玉米需求分析?1 0 年间中国玉米消费量总体呈现为刚性增长。?1 0
4、 年间中国玉米消费增量约为4 5%。?1 0 年间中国玉米消费量年均增长率约为4.5%。?1 0 年间中国玉米消费量增长主要源于饲料消费与工业消费的增长。?随着我国经济发展，居民收入不断增加，对于肉蛋奶的摄取量也将不断增加，刚性增长仍将延续。数据来源：U S D A 北方物流研发部单位：亿吨，%注：2 0 1 1/2 0 1 2 年产量暂为U S D A 预估4?Rigid corn demand hikes over past 10 years?Consumption goes up by 45%over 10 years with annual growth rate at 4.5%,ma
5、inly because of more feed and industrial demand?Rigid corn demand will surge further with the increasing demand of dairy and poultry products and meat.China Corn Demand Analysis（四）国内库存分析Domestic Stocks Analysis5东北临储拍卖数据Temporary Reserves Auction in NE跨省移库拍卖数据Transferred Reserves Auction?从2 0 0 8 年开始
6、至今，共计拍卖临储约为5 5 0 0 万吨A total of 55 million MT of corn traded through temporary reserves auction since 2008.（五）未来增加供应的可行性?增加播种面积。Increase planting acreage.?提高单产，可通过转基因品种的使用，科学的规模化种植，以及对中低产田地的改造等方法。我国玉米单产还有较大提升空间。Increase unit yield through adoption of GM,scale effect and upgrading low-production fiel
7、d.?通过玉米的进口加大国内供应。More imports.?小麦替代，在保证小麦库存安全的前提下，通过国际国内小麦对玉米进行替代。Wheat in place of corn.?开展海外农业投资。Carry out agricultural investment overseas.6Potential of Supply Growth（六）未来需求的变化趋势?预计未来我国玉米的饲料需求将以平均每年5%-6%的速度增长，年需求增量为5 0 0-6 0 0 万吨。Feed corn demand is expected to increase by 5-6%or 5-6 million MT a
8、nnually.?预计未来我国玉米的工业需求将以平均每年3%-5%的速度增长，年需求增量为2 0 0-3 0 0 万吨。由于玉米深加工正处于盈利周期，产品生产效益良好，企业的生产积极性较高，因此仍有较强增长动力及上涨空间。但考虑到深加工行业受经济、政策影响较大，这种需求增量变化较大。Feed corn demand is expected to increase by 3-5%or 2-3 million MT annually.Such Demand may increase further due to current high profit margin.However,the incr
9、ease may be volatile given the impact from economy and government policy.7Demand Outlook（七）未来增加库存的方式?对于我国玉米库存储备的增加，应该在我国玉米大丰收时加大储备，且在价格合理时适当地进口玉米，这样才能建立具有相应调控能力的或能够稳住价格的库存水平。Increase corn reserves when China sees bumper harvest and import if prices appropriate.?因我国玉米需求量基数的增加，我国玉米的安全库存储备水平也应随之上涨。With
10、 increased demand,the standard of national security stocks should be raised.8Possible Ways to Increase Stocks in Future（八）结论Conclusion我国玉米供求格局发生了重大变化，由供需偏紧逐渐向供不应求转变，且趋势仍在延续。应对这种重大格局变化的解决办法只能通过：Tight supply steadily turns to deficit in supply and the problem is worsening.Tips for solution:?增加产量；Incre
11、ase Production?控制工业需求量；Curb Industrial Demand?进口增加供应；More Imports?提高节约意识，减少浪费。Minimize Waste 910一、中国玉米市场的供需格局发生本质变化Essential Changes in Supply and Demand二、中国玉米市场的短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis三、中国玉米市场的中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis?受季节性因素的影响，玉米需求强劲。尤其是饲料需求，随着生猪存栏量的增加以及存栏猪龄的增长，饲料需求将以几何式增长，价格还有上涨动力。Corn demand is
12、 brisk due to seasonal fluctuation.Feed corn demand,in particular,surges dramatically with increased hog inventory.Thus,corn price may go up further.?当前供应趋紧，旧作玉米可供应量大幅减少，尤其是商业库存。在新作玉米大量上市之前的9 月、1 0 月份，市场可能还有至少4 0 0 万吨的旧作玉米需求，但目前市场现有库存还远远达不到4 0 0 万吨的规模。Supply tends to be tight,especially for commerci
13、al stocks.There is a demand of 4 million MT old corn in Sep and Oct before new crops come in.But current stocks are far less than 4 million MT.?我国新作玉米由南向北大量上市，收购价格大幅高开的可能性较大。New corn price may open high.短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis11?我国农民对新作玉米上市后的前两个月内具有市场定价权，农民的售粮进度以及预期都将决定市场的价格。Farmer have the market
14、 pricing capacity within two month after new corncomes in.Then the market price will be determined by the sales progress and market expectation.?市场有阶段性和区域性断货的可能。如华北黄淮地区9 月底和1 0 月初能否出现阴雨天气、东北地区收获时能否出现阴雨天气，以及东北农民是否惜售都将决定着断货的可能性。Certain markets may run out of corn supply in specific periods.Excessive r
15、ainy days in Oct and Nov in N China and Yellow/Huai River reaches，bad weather during the reaping period in NE and farmersloath sale will all supply suspension.?国储的抛售或轮换都可增加市场的短期供应。State reserve auction and rotation may increase supply in short run.短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis1213一、中国玉米市场的供需格局发生本质变化Esse
16、ntial Changes in Supply and Demand二、中国玉米市场的短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis三、中国玉米市场的中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis?国家宏观调控政策及秋粮收购政策，可能对玉米价格的过快上涨构成压力。Macro-control and state reserves procurement policy enforced by the government may pressurize the excessive growth of corn price.?因小麦与玉米的价差不断扩大
17、，替代量将有增无减，小麦的大量替代将减少一部分玉米的需求。More wheat will substitute corn with the increasing price gap between them,which may somewhat decrease the corn demand.?我国玉米大量上市后，价格将面临高位回调的可能，尤其是春节前后农民大量售粮的时段。Corn price may drop after large amount of new crops come in,especially during the sales peak season over the Sp
18、ring Festival.14?大量新作进口玉米将在1 1 月份之后到货，使得国内玉米市场短期供应增加，且与东北玉米大量上市的时间重叠，可能会对价格形成较大压力。Large amount of corn imports will arrive in November,coinciding with the come of new harvest from NE China.This may lead to sudden increase in supply in the short run and downward pressure on price.?由于美国玉米带的糟糕天气导致玉米产量受
19、损，再以低价进口玉米的可能性较低，难度较大，进口玉米成本或将居高不下，这也有力地支撑国内玉米价格。Bad weather damages corn production in the US.Chances of importing at low price areremote.High import cost will be supportive to the price in China.?我国玉米价格高位回调之后，价格可能仍然会呈现上涨的趋势，但上涨的幅度将取决于新的影响因素。Price may rebound after decrease.However,new factors will determine the increase rate.中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis15谢谢大家！Thank you！